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Oil prices remain flat as traders evaluate U.S. Iran talks and the Hormuz closing

Investors assessed the prospects of renewed U.S. Iran talks, and the potential of releasing supply from the Middle East where exports are still restricted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures rose 43 cents or 0.5% to $95.22 per barrel at 821 GMT after dropping 4.6% the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was down 17 cents or 0.2% to $91.11. The contract fell 7.9% in the previous session.

The war has largely closed the Strait of Hormuz. This is a major waterway that allows crude oil and refined products to flow out of the Gulf and be sold globally, especially in Asia and Europe. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that talks with Tehran to end the war may resume this week. They ended over the weekend in a deadlock. The U.S. also implemented a shipping blockade that, according to its military on Wednesday, has stopped all trade in and out of Iran by sea. Sources said that despite a two week ceasefire, the transit through the Strait is still uncertain. Only a fraction the number of daily crossings as before the war.

The trajectory of oil will depend less on battlefield developments than on diplomatic momentum. "Markets are reacting more to headlines 'around negotiations than troop deployments", said Priyanka Sahdeva, Senior Market Analyst at Phillip Nova.

Each signal of renewed dialog has been accompanied by price drops, suggesting that traders have systematically unwinded the "war premium" embedded in crude earlier this month." Refiners desperately seek alternative crude supplies, driving up the premiums that they will pay for oil coming from places such as the U.S. Gulf Coast or North Sea. On Tuesday, a cargo of WTI Midland to be delivered to Rotterdam was traded at a record $22.80 per barrel premium over benchmark European prices. An official from the United States said that a U.S. destroyer prevented two oil tankers leaving Iran on February 2.

SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye said that it is not Trump alone who wants to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. "Iran is using its own calculations, and it may be strategically beneficial for the regime to restrict flows even after any peace deal. This could be to extract reparations, ensure security, or to simply inflict pain on the market ahead of the U.S. midterm election. Two U.S. officials said on Tuesday that the U.S. would not renew the 30-day waiver for sanctions against Iranian oil at sea, which expires next week. They also quietly allowed a similar waiver to expire on Russian oil over the weekend.

The Energy Information Administration is expected to release official U.S. inventories at 10:30 am ET. ET (1430 GMT). A poll indicated that U.S. crude stockpiles were expected to have increased slightly last week while distillate and gasoil inventories are likely to have decreased. According to market sources who are familiar with American Petroleum Institute data, U.S. crude inventories rose for the third consecutive week on Tuesday. (Reporting from Stephanie Kelly in London; Katya Golubkova, in Tokyo; and Emily Chow, in Singapore. Editing by Christian Schmollinger & Kevin Buckland.

(source: Reuters)