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US: Brooklyn man sentenced 15 years for Iran-backed plot against dissident
The Justice Department announced that a Brooklyn man had been sentenced to 15-years-in-prison for his involvement in what prosecutors described as a failed Iran backed "murder-for hire" plot against Masih Alinejad. Alinejad is a prominent Iranian political dissident who lives in the U.S. Carlisle Rivera (also known as "Pop") pleaded previously guilty to a count of conspiracy for a?murder of hire and a count of conspiring to commit stalking in front of the?U.S. The Justice Department released a statement stating that District Judge Lewis Liman of the Southern District?of?New York imposed the sentence on Wednesday. Alinejad is a journalist and a 'critic' of Iran’s laws on head coverings. She fled Iran in 2009. She promoted videos of women who violated these laws to millions of her social media followers. She lived in Brooklyn when the alleged plot on her life allegedly occurred. The Justice Department was cracking down on what it called transnational repression, or the targeting of political opponents by authoritarian regimes on foreign soil. The prosecution said that Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard Corps, and its intelligence officials, have repeatedly attempted to?target Alinejad. Iran has rejected as unfounded allegations that its intelligence agents sought to?kidnap or murder her. In the U.S., other people were also convicted and sentenced for the alleged plot.
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Palm oil and palm olein are stronger than soyoil.
The Malaysian palm oil futures ended higher on Wednesday for the third consecutive session, backed by Chicago soyoil, Dalian palm olein, and Dalian soyoil, but a stronger Ringgit capped further gains. The benchmark contract for palm oil delivery in April on the Bursa Derivatives Exchange rose 12 ringgit or 0.28% to 4,272 Ringgit ($1,091.19) per metric ton. Anilkumar bagani, head of commodity research at Mumbai-based Sunvin Group, said that the futures were continuing to show a broader upward trend, riding on the bullish wave of Chicago's Soyoil and Dalian's Palm Olein. He added that a weaker production and good exports in January also helped to keep palm oil's bullish momentum. However, the stronger ringgit had?limited its gains. Dalian's palm oil contract, which is the most active contract, gained 1.49% while soyoil prices rose by 1.44%. Chicago Board of Trade soyoil prices were up by 0.2%. Palm oil monitors the price changes of other edible oils as it competes to gain a share in the global vegetable oils market. The palm ringgit's currency has strengthened by 0.89% against dollars, making it more expensive for buyers who hold foreign currencies. The oil prices rose on Wednesday as concerns about supply remained after a winterstorm disrupted U.S. crude exports and production. Middle East tensions also contributed to the rise. Palm oil is more attractive as a biodiesel feedstock because crude oil futures are stronger. Intertek Testing Services, a cargo surveyor, said that exports of Malaysian palm oils for the period January 1-25 were up 9.97% compared to a month ago, while AmSpec Agri Malaysia, an independent inspection company, put it at 7.97%.
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Gold reaches record high of $5,300 while the dollar falls
Gold prices surpassed $5,300 an ounce on Wednesday for the first-time as a result of waning confidence in the U.S. Dollar and growing concerns about the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Gold spot jumped by 1.7%, to $5,275.68 per ounce, at 0940 GMT, after reaching a record of $5,311.31. Prices rose by more than 3% during the previous session. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery jumped by 3.7%, to $5,271.70 per ounce. "Gold is not only rising due to'market anxiety', but also as confidence in global monetary and fiscal order is shifting towards a more conservative stance," explains Linh Tran senior market analyst for XS.com. The U.S. Dollar struggled to near its four-year-lows on Wednesday, after President Donald Trump dismissed the recent weakness of the currency. This made dollar-priced gold more attractive for overseas buyers. Trump said he would soon announce his choice to be the head of the Fed, and predicted interest rates will fall once the new chair takes over. Nitesh Sha, WisdomTree commodity strategist, said that "the truth is that any candidate that will be suggested will likely be less resistant to Trump's demand than Powell", which would be in gold's favor. Gold, which doesn't yield interest, usually performs well when rates of interest are low. It is expected that the Fed will hold rates steady at its monetary policy meeting in January, which is currently underway. Metal prices have risen by more than 20 percent since the beginning of the year. This is a significant increase from the previous record-breaking gains. Deutsche Bank analysts believe that gold prices could reach $6,000 per ounce in this year due to persistent investment demand. Retail demand has been strong in Shanghai and Hong Kong despite record prices. Shah said, "I think that the high prices are causing a bit of speculation on the retail side." After hitting a record-high of $117.69 an ounce on Monday, spot silver edged down 0.2% to $112.82. It has gained almost 60% this year. Spot platinum rose 0.1% to $2,644.35 per ounce after hitting a record of $2,918.80 an ounce on Monday. Palladium also increased 0.1% to $1,935.57.
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Three policemen are killed in an ambush by gunmen in Nigeria's Katsina State
Police said that three police officers?were killed and two other police officers wounded in an ambush by suspected armed gangs on a 'routine patrol' in northwest Nigerian state of Katsina on Tuesday. The incident was part a wave of attacks that included mass kidnappings carried out by armed groups operating from hideouts in forests. They have attacked villages, schools, and places of worship throughout the predominantly Muslim Northwest. The ambush on Tuesday, the second one in a row, highlights persistent insecurity in the region, where bandits - gangs of armed robbers - continue to attack rural communities and security forces despite ongoing military operations. Abubakar Sadiq Aliyu, spokesperson for Katsina Police, said that the officers were heavily attacked at 1144 GMT while on patrol along the Guga-Bakori Road. Aliyu stated that the team "responded bravely" to repel the attack, but three officers were killed in the shootout. He said that two wounded officers were being treated in a nearby hospital. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has accused Nigerian authorities of failing to protect Christians. Nigerian authorities claim that both Muslims and Christians are being targeted by the government.
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Hong Kong scientists launch AI-based model to better predict extreme climate
Hong Kong scientists have developed a system that uses artificial intelligence to forecast thunderstorms and heavy downpours four hours in advance, as opposed to the current range of 20 minutes to 2 hours. The system will allow emergency services and governments to respond more efficiently to the increasingly extreme weather conditions linked to climate changes, said the team of Hong Kong University of Science and Technology on Wednesday. Su Hui, professor and chair of the civil and environmental engineering department at the University, led the project. Su said at a press conference that the system was designed to predict heavy rains. The work had been published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, in December. The model uses generative AI, which injects noise into the training data to teach the system to reverse the process in order to make more accurate forecasts. The team claims that the system, developed in collaboration with China’s weather authorities and updated every 15 minutes, has increased accuracy by over 15%. Scientists said that such work is vital because the number and intensity of typhoons, and wet weather episodes in Hong Kong and southern China in 2025 will be far above the seasonal norm. The observatory reported that the city issued its most severe rainstorm warnings five times in a single year and its second-highest 16 times. The China Meteorological Administration and Hong Kong Observatory are both working on incorporating the model into their forecasts. The Deep Diffusion Model based Satellite Data (DDMS) was trained using infrared brightness temperatures collected by China's Fengyun-4 Satellite between 2018 and 2020. Su said that satellites can detect clouds earlier than other forecasting systems, such as radar. Data was combined with expert meteorological knowledge to capture the evolution and development of convective clouds systems. This was then validated by spring and summer samples taken in 2022 and 2023. (Reporting and writing by Joyce Zhou, Farah master; editing by Clarence Fernandez).
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Why India could increase duty on gold and silver imports
India's imports of gold and silver reached record levels in the past year. This has caused concern among policymakers. The government lacks effective tools to stop the inflows, which have been resilient despite the sky-high price for precious metals. Gold imports in the country rose by 1.6% compared to a year ago, reaching $58.9 Billion. Silver imports increased by 44%, hitting $9.2 Billion, as both metals reached record highs. Why Target Gold and Silver Imports? India is the second largest consumer of gold in the world and the biggest silver market. However, it imports almost all of its gold needs and more than 80% silver. In 2018, the country spent almost a tenth its total foreign currency reserves on gold and other metals. The import bill will continue to increase in 2026, as both metals' prices continue to soar. The rupee has been under pressure this month due to the rising imports, which have increased the trade deficit. Gold is used primarily for investment and jewellery, unlike silver which has industrial uses ranging from electronics to solar power. The government considers such demand non-essential, and has repeatedly tried to curtail it by increasing import duties. This makes the metal more costly for buyers. Why are traders speculating about a duty hike? Gold and silver prices are at record levels. This could cause import values to rise even though volumes may not. This would raise concerns over a growing trade deficit, and a further deterioration of the rupee against the dollar, which is already falling. Officials from the trade and industry sector say that these concerns could lead the government to increase import duties on silver and gold in the next few weeks. In 2012 and 2013 the government raised import duties dramatically to stabilize the rapidly depreciating rupia. Since the rupee has been losing ground recently, traders speculate that a new duty hike could be on its way in the coming weeks. This would reverse duties cuts made in 2024. India reduced import duties for both metals from 15% to 6% at that time in order to reduce smuggling. As markets factor in the possibility of an increase in duty, gold and silver are already trading at a premium compared to global benchmarks. Why has the demand for Indian gold not slowed down despite high prices? In India, jewellery accounted for over three-fourths (74%) of the total demand up until 2023. The gold price on the international market has increased by 98% since 2025. While this has affected jewellery purchases in India, the overall demand for gold has not dropped because of the increase in investment demand. Indians are buying more coins and bars on the physical market. Meanwhile, a growing number are investing in exchange-traded fund. ETF inflows increased 283% from a year ago to a new record of 429.6 billion rupies ($4.69billion). In 2025, India's gold consumption increased by 40% as a result of the investment demand. This is expected to continue in 2026. Gold and Silver ETFs are investments funds that are traded on stock exchanges just like shares. They are backed up by gold and silver bars stored in secure vaults. Can a duty hike reduce gold demand? India has tried to reduce gold imports repeatedly by increasing duties, but without much success. New Delhi increased the import tax for gold from 2% to 10% in August 2013 but demand remained the same. The domestic gold price has risen from 8,000 rupees for 10 grams at the beginning of 2006 to 162,000 rupees today, but this rally failed to reduce annual demand. The new duty increase of 4 to six percentage points will not deter buyers who have already absorbed the 76.5% price jump in 2025. However, higher duties could increase investor returns and smuggling. Gold ETFs are expected to continue to see strong inflows as investors look to gold amid weak equity returns. A sharp drop in price could weaken the investment demand, but increase jewellery sales because buyers who were waiting for a price correction are now returning. Why are silver imports also a cause for concern? India's import bill has increased as silver prices have risen more rapidly than gold. Silver demand had been primarily driven by industrial demand until last year. However, in recent months, investment demand has supported imports. In 2025, silver ETFs will see inflows of 234.7 trillion rupees. This is up from 85.69 trillion rupees just a year ago. Silver ETFs are becoming more popular, and imports could increase if prices continue to rise.
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Heatwave in Australia records record-breaking heatwave that fuels bushfires and cuts power to thousands
The record-breaking heatwave that swept Australia's south-east for the fifth straight day Wednesday sparked bushfires, strained the power grid and left thousands of properties without electricity. Authorities said that the heatwave in Victoria is expected to continue until the weekend. It is the worst since 2009 Black Saturday bushfires, which killed 173 people. Tim Wiebusch, Victorian Emergency Management Commissioner said: "We have now entered day five of a severe and intense heatwave in Victoria. We are beginning to see some of these impacts." "An extreme heat warning still exists, and we expect to see eight days of extreme heat." David Crock of Australia's Bureau of Meteorology said that climate change was driving the heat and described the temperatures as "very unusual". Crock stated that the severity of the heatwave this year is comparable to January 2009 and the heatwave from January 1939. The data show a long-term rise in heatwave intensity and frequency, especially since the year 2000. This is due to climate change. Crock reported that a number of records were broken for temperatures in Victoria on February 2. He said that about 20 stations in western Victoria had either broken all-time or January records. The highest temperature recorded in the state was 48.9 degrees Celsius. Conditions in Victoria were slightly better on Wednesday. Meanwhile, temperatures in the upper western part of New South Wales state and the south-western region of Queensland state reached 48 C (118 F). In Victoria, around 11,000 homes were without power. This is down from 105,000 the day before. Six major fires were also being fought by firefighters, three of which were out-of-control. The fire at Carlisle River, in the Otways Region, has destroyed more than 11,000 acres (27 181 acres). Chris Hardman said that the fire at Carlisle River was far from being out. We are still in the early summer. "We'll see the heat and wind coming back before this fire is completely contained." Many communities are still struggling to recover from the large bushfires that started the month. These fires were also caused by a severe heatwave. Over 400 homes and 400,000 acres of land have already been destroyed.
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After winter storm, US supply concerns persist and oil prices are rising
The oil prices rose on Wednesday, as supply concerns remained after a winter storm that disrupted U.S. crude exports and production. Middle?East tensions also contributed to the increase. Brent crude futures increased 11 cents or 0.2% to $67.68 per barrel at 0725 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 19 cents or 0.3% to $62.58 per barrel. Both benchmarks rose by about 3% Tuesday. Analysts and traders estimated that the storm had caused the U.S. to lose up to 2,000,000 barrels of oil per day, or 15% of the nation's output, over the weekend. Ship tracking service Vortexa reported that Crude and Liquefied Natural Gas exports from U.S. Gulf Coast port ports fell to zero on Sunday. Toshitaka Takawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities said that the rally is also due to a loss of production in Kazakhstan. Tazawa stated that "sales pressure will likely return once the supply concerns ease." He said that a global crude oil supply surplus projected for this year amid geopolitical risk, such as the Middle East tensions could keep WTI around $60 per barrel?for now. Two sources with knowledge of the situation said that Tengiz's largest oilfield in Kazakhstan is expected to?restore less than half its normal production on February 7, as it slowly recovers after a fire and a power outage. This was a counter-argument to comments made by CPC, the pipeline operator that handles around 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports. CPC claimed it had restored full loading capacity at their Black Sea terminal following maintenance on one of three moorings. SUPPLY FEARS? REMAIN AMID MIDERAST TENSIONS Two U.S. officials who refused to be named said on Monday that a U.S. aircraft carriers and accompanying warships had arrived in the Middle East. This added to President Donald Trump's ability to defend U.S. troops or take possible military action against Iran. This has increased the likelihood that Trump will 'follow through' on his threat to strike Iran’s senior leadership as a response to the violent crackdown of nationwide protests. ANZ analysts said in a report. At a meeting held on 1 February, three OPEC+ delegates stated that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) is'set' to maintain its pause in oil production increases for the month of March. A poll conducted on Tuesday showed that U.S. crude and gasoline stockpiles are expected to have increased in the week ending January 23. However, distillate stocks will likely be down. Market sources cited American Petroleum Institute data on Tuesday to confirm that U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate stocks all fell last week while the latter rose. (Reporting from Yuka Obayashi, Tokyo; Emily Chow, Singapore; Editing and Neil Fullick.)
The Fed is in the spotlight as the dollar finds its feet.
After a steep sell-off on Wednesday, the dollar found its feet. U.S. president Donald Trump seemed to shrug its recent weakness. Meanwhile, upbeat earnings kept global stocks near record levels?before? a Federal Reserve rate announcement.
The U.S. dollar dipped from four-year lows, but sentiment was fragile after the biggest selloff since Trump’s tariffs blitz shook markets in April.
European stock markets declined, but U.S. futures indicated a positive opening for Wall Street. Japan's blue chip Nikkei also gained. The MSCI World Stock Index was hovering at record highs.
"Last weekend, when it seemed that there was a flight away from the U.S., the dollar fell, Treasuries took a hit, and equities were down. "Now it's more a dollar-story," said Nordea Chief Markets Analyst Jan von Gerich.
Powell has resisted all political pressures, but he could now speak more about it.
Fed governor Lisa Cook is being targeted for firing and a criminal investigation by the Trump administration will overshadow this meeting. A successor to Powell's position in May will also be nominated.
On FX Watch
The dollar index (which measures the U.S. currencies against six major competitors) was?0.25% lower at 96.16, after falling over 1% on Tuesday, to reach a four-year-low.
When asked if he felt the dollar's value had fallen too much, Trump replied that it was "great".
Although this view is not new, traders interpreted it as a signal for them to increase the selling pressure against the dollar. This comes at a moment when the markets are bracing themselves for a possible coordinated currency intervention from U.S. authorities and Japanese authorities in order to stabilize the yen.
The dollar's plunge lifted the euro above $1.20, the first time in 2021. It also sent the Australian Dollar briefly above 70 cents, a three-year-high, and lifted gold prices to new peaks.
Steve Englander, Standard Chartered's head of global G10 Currency Research in New York said that while officials often push back on abrupt currency movements, when the President shows indifference to the move or even approves it they are encouraged to continue pushing.
Earnings are plentiful
ASML, the world's largest ?supplier of computer chip equipment, reported stronger-than-expected bookings for the fourth quarter, highlighting resilient AI demand.
Its shares rose 5%, beating a flat European market.
Wall Street will be awash with big tech earnings, including Meta and Tesla, after the close.
The weaker dollar has filtered down to other assets, helping gold reach a new record of $5,280 per ounce. Brent crude futures have also reached a new four-month high at just over $68 per barrel.
In Asia, higher-than-expected inflation rates in Australia?in December have led to expectations of a rate increase as early as next week. ANZ, Westpac and all four of Australia's 'Big Four' banks are now predicting a rate rise.
Indonesia's stock market plunged 7% as index provider MSCI expressed concern about the opaqueness of ownership and trading. It also halted updating Indonesian entries to its products which are monitored by global investors.
(source: Reuters)