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Wall Street futures drop, but yen is boosted by Japan's rate hike bets

The European stock market fell on Monday, and Wall Street futures indicated further losses. However, the Japanese government bond yields and the yen were boosted by comments that suggested the central bank might hike interest rates.

The market was a little jittery during November but has strengthened over the last week as traders bet more on the Federal Reserve of the United States cutting rates at their December meeting.

At 1249 GMT Europe's STOXX 600 fell 0.6% for the day, as markets were gripped by a new wave of risk-aversion. London's FTSE 100 fell 0.2%, while Germany's DAX dropped 1.5%. The MSCI World Equity Index fell 0.1% for the day.

After U.S. officials and Ukrainian officials had what they both called productive discussions on Sunday, about a potential Russia-Ukraine deal, a drop in defence stocks contributed to the decline in European indexes.

Wall Street futures also fell, with S&P500 eminis falling by 0.8% and Nasdaq minis dropping by 1.1%. The traders were waiting to hear comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell who will speak later today.

Bitcoin was down 6.4% to $85,347.26 in a sign of increased risk-aversion. This extended losses and put pressure on bitcoin-buying firms. Gold reached its highest level in six weeks on the back of expectations that U.S. rates will be cut. It was last seen at $4,248.99.

Bank of Japan to consider raising rates

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central will weigh the "pros" and "cons" of increasing rates at the next policy meeting. This caused traders to increase their bets on rate hikes.

After the remarks, the yen gained strength to a high of 155.49 dollars per dollar. The yield on the 2-year Japanese government bonds rose by 2 basis points and reached its highest level since June 2008. The dollar-yen exchange rate continued to rise during European trading and reached 154.79.

Carry trades are popular because of Japan's low interest rates. Traders borrow yen for a low rate to invest in riskier assets. Fiona Cincotta is a senior market analyst with City Index. She said Monday's negative market sentiment may have been prompted by the possibility that higher rates in Japan would make this position less lucrative.

"Concerns about the unwinding the carry trade had been lingering in the background for some time. But I think that comments made by Governor Ueda hinting a possible rate increase in December have really revived these concerns."

The dollar index fell 0.4% for the day to 99.06 while the euro rose 0.4% to $1.1646.

Investors awaited the euro zone inflation figures due Tuesday. Germany's 2-year bond yield, sensitive to expectations of the European Central Bank policy outlook, reached its highest level since March 28.

The Purchasing Managers' Surveys released on Monday revealed that manufacturing in Europe and Asia's largest economies was weak in November due to subdued demand at home and uncertainty over tariffs.

ECONOMIC DATA TO COMME

Traders waited for U.S. data this week on manufacturing, consumer sentiment and services to set the tone before the Fed meeting on December 9-10. According to LSEG, markets are pricing a 93.9% probability of a rate cut of 25 basis points.

The data this week will be the last opportunity for markets to reconsider an December Fed cut, which is already fully priced in. Although the market's dovish wagers seem too high, ING FX strategist Francesco Pesole said in a client note that the ISM figures, ADP figures and PCE numbers will validate them.

Matt Simpson, senior analyst at StoneX, in Brisbane, says that if incoming data signals a slowdown, but not a recession, then the sentiment will probably remain positive, even if the U.S. Dollar weakens, as it usually does during this time of the year.

Brent crude futures rose 1% to $62,99 as tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela raised supply concerns, while OPEC+ agreed not to change oil production levels for the first quarter 2026. (Reporting from Elizabeth Howcroft in Paris; additional reporting by Ankur banerjee in Singapore. Editing by Susan Fenton.)

(source: Reuters)