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Silver reaches record price of $65/oz due to a perfect storm
Silver's inclusion on the U.S. Critical Minerals?list and a wave momentum buying has propelled it to a new record high. Prices are expected to end 2025 more than twice where they started. Silver has gained over 120% in the past year, and according to LSEG's data dating back to 1982, is on track for its best-ever annual performance. The metal is beating safe-haven, gold which is expected to rise 64% by 2025. On Wednesday, spot prices reached a new record high of $66.87/oz. The current rally is largely driven by investment. The rally has a strong fundamental basis, but these prices are driven by speculation and investment," said Rhona OConnel, StoneX's head of market research. Silver's fundamentals are robust, with a persistent supply deficit and a healthy outlook for demand from the solar cell, artificial intelligence data centers, and electric vehicles industries. Metals also benefit from the same macroeconomic factors that support gold as well as flows to safe-haven assets due to geopolitical tensions and trade tensions. Nitesh Sha, commodities strategist at WisdomTree, said that these factors and the less abundant inventories outside of the U.S. create a "very supportive environment" for future growth. He added that "Silver could reach a price of up to $75/oz by the end next year." Prices have also been supported by the metal's inclusion in the U.S. Critical Minerals list. Concerns about the potential impact of tariffs on silver prompted a rush to the U.S. in early this year. This led to a shortage of liquidity in London's spot market. Analysts said that the combination of demand from India and China with momentum buying has created a perfect storm for metal. Carsten Menke, Julius Baer's analyst, said that "strong price performances" attract Chinese traders to the market. This is evidenced by the increase in trading volumes and open interest on the exchanges. Analysts remain bullish about silver. They expect the metal to surpass the $70/oz mark next year. This is especially true if U.S. rate cuts boost the demand for precious metals. Others cautioned, however,?that historically volatile metals remain vulnerable to steep corrections. O'Connell said that if gold moves by x% in one direction, silver should move by 2x% to 2.5x% in the opposite direction because it is a smaller, more volatile market.
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Industry says EU carbon tax changes are not sufficient for metals
Industry representatives on Wednesday said that the proposed?changes in the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism are a'step in the right directions' for Europe's?steel?and?aluminium?sector, but not a 'complete solution'. On Wednesday, the European Commission announced plans to extend the CBAM, which imposes a carbon-based tax on imports of metals such as steel and aluminium, and a few other commodities, to include some downstream products that contain a large amount of these metals. These include machinery, appliances and scrap. It did this in response to warnings by metal industry players from Europe regarding "carbon leakage", or the risk that industries worried about losing their competitiveness might move operations out of the region so as to avoid the costs of climate policies. The European Steel Association Eurofer stated in a press release that the proposals were flawed, but did not provide "a comprehensive and lasting response to jobs and carbon leakage", saying the number downstream products included is "very limited". Axel Eggert said that Eurofer, as Eurofer's Director General, was ready to continue discussions with legislators about how to make CBAM watertight. Norsk Hydro, a Norwegian aluminium manufacturer, was in the forefront of the 'lobbying' for the expansion CBAM. It said that 35% of EU aluminum recycling capacity would be lost if remelted scrap aluminium entered the EU free of a carbon levy. It said that the inclusion of "pre-consumer" scrap is a "big move forward". "However,?post-consumer scrap ?must also be added to the scope," a company spokesman ?said. "If we don't, the loophole for scrap will be open to half." Pre-consumer metal is scrap generated during manufacturing before a finished product reaches a consumer. Post-consumer metal, such as aluminum beverage cans, are end-of life metals. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Tom Daly)
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The Peruvian Congress extends the informal mining permits program by one year
LIMA, December 17 - Peru’s Congress approved on Wednesday a one year extension to a temporary?permit?program?for small-scale miner amid ongoing protests that?sought to give miners a longer period of time to regularize their operation. The extension will last until the end of 2026. The government previously opposed a bill which sought to extend REINFO by two years. After receiving an initial approval at the beginning of December, the extension was approved by 13 votes in favor, 4 against, and 2 abstentions. The REINFO permits have been extended five times since the program began a little more than a decade ago. This program is for small-scale informal miners that extract gold and/or copper. These permits allow them to continue to work. Sources in the Peruvian industry and police claim that the temporary permits also fueled a'surge' of illegal mining, at a time where precious metals trade at record prices on the international markets. In July, more than 50,000 small-scale miner were removed from REINFO. This left about 31,000 people responsible for bringing the status of their mining up to date before the end 2025. Peru exported $15.5 billion in gold to the world in 2024. This is a huge jump from the $11 billion it had done last year. According to local financial regulator and sector data, it is estimated that 40% of the gold in this country is illegal. (Reporting and Writing by Marco Aquino; Editing and Revision by Brendan O'Boyle).
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Tunisians renew protests against pollution at state chemical plant in Gabes
Around 2,500 Tunisians marched in the coastal city of Gabes, renewing protests against pollution caused by a'state-owned' phosphate complex. The anger was rising over perceived failures regarding public health. The main slogan was "Gabes Wants to Live" on the 15th Anniversary of the pro-democracy revolt of 2011 that ignited the Arab Spring movement. The protest increased pressure on the government of President?Kais saied, who is currently dealing with a financial crisis, growing street unrest and protests by journalists, doctors, banks, and public transport systems. The UGTT, a powerful union in Tunisia, has called for a 'nationwide strike' next month. This is causing great tensions throughout the country. Recent protests have been widely viewed as one of the biggest challenges Saied has faced since he started ruling by decree back in '2021. Protesters marched towards Chatt Essalam (a coastal suburb to the north of the city) where Chemical Group industrial units are situated. Safouan Kbibieh is an environmental activist from the area. She said, "The chemical factory is a crime. We will not pass this environmental disaster on to our children. Residents claim that toxic emissions from the complex of phosphates have increased the rates of cancer, osteoporosis, and respiratory diseases. Meanwhile, industrial waste continues to be dumped into the ocean, causing harm to marine life and livelihoods. The protests in Gabes erupted again after?hundreds? of schoolchildren had breathing problems in the last few months. This was allegedly due to toxic fumes coming from a factory that converts phosphates into fertilisers and phosphoric acids. Saied has described the situation in Gabes, as "environmental murder", and blamed previous governments for their policy choices. He also called for urgent maintenance, to prevent toxic leaks. The protesters are rejecting the temporary measures, and demand the permanent closure of the plant and its relocation. (Reporting and editing by Ed Osmond, Tarek amara)
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Radiant raises more than $300 million for the construction of nuclear microreactors
Radiant, a startup company, announced on Wednesday that it had raised $300 million for its latest funding round to mass-produce nuclear reactors. The funding round was led by Draper Associates & Boost VC, and included funding from Founders Fund ARK Venture Fund Chevron Technology Ventures, and other investors. Why it's important After decades of stagnation, the U.S. nuclear industry is seeing a surge of demand. This is due to the demand for data centers that are used in artificial intelligence technologies as well as electrifications of industries like transportation and manufacturing. The funding round will assist Radiant in commercializing as it prepares for the early next year to break ground on its R 50 'factory' in Oak Ridge Tennessee. CONTEXT Radiant, based in California, is developing nuclear microreactors with a 1 megawatt capacity that are easily transportable. The company signed an agreement earlier this year to supply 20 microreactors for data center developer Equinix. The reactors were designed to provide a constant power source for applications such as disaster response, critical infrastructure, remote industry, and defense. Radiant plans to test its first nuclear reactor in 2026. Initial customer deployments will begin in 2028. KEY QUOTES Tim Draper of Draper Associates said that "portable nuclear power will?provide the bulk of our incremental energy in the coming years. Radiant is working with purpose, not just to turn on their first reactor but also building them in scale within months and not years."
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Tinubu wants a $30 billion budget reset in order to stop fiscal years overlapping
Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the President of Nigeria has asked Parliament to approve a 43.56 trillion Naira (US$29.96 billion), spending plan that repeals and reenacts 2024's budget to?run until December 2025. The goal is to eliminate fiscal cycles that overlapped in recent years and tighten control on public finances. This move comes after months of criticism from lawmakers about the government's reliance upon?rolling forward capital budgets. As a result, the 2024 capital spending was extended to June 2025 and then December 2025. After years of budget mismanagement, the 'proposal' aims to restore discipline and accountability in Africa’s most populous nation. The lawmakers now want to reset the calendar year cycle in 2026. In a letter read by Speaker Tajudeen Abbas on the floor of the House of Representatives on ?Wednesday, Tinubu said the proposed repeal-and-reenactment bill would authorise withdrawals from the federal account and allocate ?1.74 trillion naira for statutory transfers, 8.27 trillion naira for debt ?service, 11.27 trillion naira for recurrent spending, and 22.28 trillion naira for capital projects ?under a single framework. Tinubu stated that the measure would "put an end to running multiple budgets simultaneously"?and improve capital projects execution after repeated rolling over of 2024 expenditure into 2025 along with a separate 54.99 billion naira budget for 2025.
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Silver tops $66, gold gains 1% due to soft US labor market
Silver prices reached a new record of $66 per ounce on Wednesday. Meanwhile, gold prices firmed up as the U.S. Federal Reserve raised expectations of rate cuts after signs of an unsteady labor market. Spot silver increased by about 4%, to $66.3 per ounce. It had previously reached a session high of $66.51. Edward Meir, a Marex analyst, said that "silver is pulling up gold with it... There is some money moving out of gold into silver and platinum and palladium." "$70/oz" (for silver) seems to be the next logical goal in the short term. After rising by over 1% in the morning, spot gold rose 0.7% at 12:10 pm ET (17:10 GMT) to $4332.21 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures were also 0.7% higher at $4,364. Silver has risen 126% in the past year, surpassing gold which has risen 65%. On ?Tuesday, data showed a stronger-than-expected increase of 64,000 jobs in the U.S. last month, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, its highest level since September 2021. Gold and other non-yielding investments could benefit from a weak labor market. Bas Kooijman is the CEO and asset manager at DHF Capital S.A. The U.S. Federal Reserve announced its final quarter-point rate reduction of the year last week. Investors now price in two 25 basis-point rate cuts in 2026. The market is now awaiting the Consumer Price Index for November, due Thursday. And Personal Consumption Spending Price Index, due Friday. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, ordered a "blockade", of all sanctioned tankers that enter and leave Venezuela. This was Washington's latest effort to increase pressure on Nicolas Maduro, adding to the demand for safe haven. Platinum rose 2.5% to $1,896.90 - its highest level in over 17 years. Palladium was up nearly 2.5% at $1,643.79 and reached its highest level in more than 17 years.
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Trump Administration dissolves key climate research agency
The Trump administration announced on Tuesday night that it would dissolve a federally funded?climate research center located in Colorado. This is the latest attempt to?defund this research. Ross Vought of the White House Office of Management and Budget said that the administration would break up the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder (NCAR), which conducts scientific research on earth systems. The facility, he added, "is one of America's largest sources of climate alarmism." Vought posted on X Tuesday night that "a?comprehensive' review was underway & vital activities like weather research would be relocated to?another location or entity." This is the latest attempt by the Trump administration to eliminate U.S. climate research as well as federal agencies who have previously worked on climate research and greenhouse gas regulation. The Administration has proposed cutting the budget of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration by $1.33 billion or 28 percent this year. It also proposes a 75 percent cut in its Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, which would eliminate climate science research at that agency. In the past year, it has also fired all the contributors to the National Climate Assessment. This is the study which informs the?federal government and local governments about how to prepare themselves for the impacts of climate change. Colorado's Democratic governor Jared Polis claimed that he was not officially informed?of the cutbacks by the administration. He warned that the death of NCAR would give rivals abroad a?competitive advantage. Polis stated in a statement that "NCAR provides data about severe weather events such as fires and flooding, which helps our country to save lives and property and prevent devastation of families." He said that if these cuts are implemented, we would lose our competitive edge against foreign powers in the pursuit of scientific discoveries. NCAR develops and maintains research instruments that are widely used by the scientific community, governments and international climate assessment bodies. The community earth system, weather research and prediction and climate models are among them. (Reporting and editing by Aidan Lewis; Valerie Volcovici)
The dollar is headed to the carvery, according to the morning bid in Europe.
Tom Westbrook gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.
The dollar's weekly drop was the largest in four months, and traders were looking ahead to 2026 as markets slowed down for Thanksgiving in the U.S.
The U.S. is looking to further ease interest rates, while the rest of world seems to be finishing off their rate cuts.
South Korea is the latest country to adopt a hawkish stance, abandoning its easing bias. Bonds have fallen.
Asahi Noguchi, a former Bank of Japan dove, also adopted a slightly hawkish tone in his speech to Kyushu. He advocated gradual increases and followed the same line as other BOJ policymakers.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand had effectively ended its currency-cutting cycle a day earlier. However, the Kiwi was still up on Thursday.
The stock is up by nearly 2% in the last few months since the policy discussion.
The minutes of the October meeting at which policymakers held rates steady are due to be released on Thursday.
The European markets will be watching the progress of a peace agreement in Ukraine and are expecting confidence data. Russia has denied making any major concessions after the leaked call between Steve Witkoff, a U.S. envoy and a senior Kremlin official.
The markets still have 90 basis points worth of U.S. interest rate cuts priced between now and 2026, compared to 75 bps for Japan and 40 bps for New Zealand. The U.S. Dollar Index is down about 1 percent from the six-month high reached last week.
Although rates in New Zealand and Japan are lower than in the U.S.A., currency markets are always looking ahead and can influence exchange rates, as investors search for the highest yield.
The Aussie has been discussed as a possible breakout by traders. Australian rates for 3-years and 10-years are now the highest in G10 after a higher-than-expected inflation figure on Wednesday.
The Aussie has been trudge along in the same channel for over 18 months. The currency could be freed by a slight increase in the yuan.
The U.S. stock and bond market is closed on Friday and only trades for half a day.
The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday.
Thanksgiving Day in the United States
-Euro zone consumer confidence, ECB minutes
(source: Reuters)