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JPMorgan forecasts Brent crude to be $57 per barrel and WTI at $53 by 2027
JPMorgan predicted on Monday Brent crude to be $57 per barrel in 2027 and West Texas Intermediate at $53, while maintaining its estimates for 2026 at $58 and $54 each. Brent crude futures traded at around $62.54 per barrel by 1434 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude was trading for $58.08. JPMorgan predicts that global oil demand will grow by 0.9m barrels per day to 105.5m bpd in 2025. In a note, JPMorgan said that similar gains were expected in 2026 and then accelerated to 1.2m bpd by 2027. JPMorgan forecasts that global oil supply will outpace the demand. It is expected to grow at three times faster than demand in 2025 and in 2026, before slowing down to one-third this pace in 2027. JPMorgan said that about half of the gains in supply will come from non OPEC+ producers. This is due to strong offshore projects, and the continued growth in global shale production. OPEC+ (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, plus Russia and allies) has been increasing production since April. OPEC+, or the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, has been increasing output since April. This is adding to fears about a glut and pushing prices down. As long as the demand growth is between 0.8 and 1.3 mbpd – enough to match non-OPEC+ production over the next two-year period – the market will remain relatively stable, assuming OPEC+ remains steady.
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Gold prices rise on higher Fed rate cuts bets and a weaker dollar
Gold prices increased on Monday due to a falling dollar and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month. As of 09:12 am, spot gold was up by 0.4% to $4,081.52 an ounce. ET (1412 GMT). U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery were unchanged at $4,079.30 an ounce. Dollar index fell, making dollar priced bullion more accessible to holders of other currencies. Bart Melek is the head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. Melek continued, "A combination (of lower expectations) and a stronger U.S. Dollar has helped gold in the current environment." John Williams, the New York Fed president, said on Friday that U.S. rates could drop "in the short term" without endangering the Fed's goal of inflation and while protecting against a job market slide. The CME FedWatch tool shows that bets on a rate reduction next month are at 76%. The CME FedWatch tool showed that gold, which is a non-yielding investment, does well when interest rates are low and when there is geopolitical unrest. Investors will be watching for important economic data that were delayed by the government shutdown. These include U.S. retail sale, unemployment claims, and producer prices figures, which are due this week. The U.S., Ukraine, and other countries continued their talks Monday in order to come up with a plan that would end the conflict with Russia. They had previously agreed to revise a U.S. proposal, which many considered to be too favorable to Moscow. In a recent note, Rhona O’Connell, an expert at StoneX said that "gold is likely to continue to be in demand, but it will remain range-bound between $4,000 and $3,100." Spot silver rose 0.5% to $50.24 an ounce. Platinum rose 1.1%, while palladium increased 0.8%, to $1385.85. (Reporting and editing by Nick Zieminski in Bengaluru)
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Harmony Gold, a South African company, will invest up to 1.75 billion dollars in an Australian copper project
Harmony Gold announced on Monday that its board of directors has approved an investment between $1.55 and $1.75 billion for the development of its Australian copper project, following completion of a new feasibility study. South Africa's largest gold producer is now diversifying into the copper industry as gold mining becomes more expensive and difficult geologically in its own country. Copper's appeal is also boosted by its use in electric vehicles and grid infrastructure. Harmony acquired the Eva Copper Project in Queensland in 2022. Harmony said that the mine will produce 65,000 tons of copper concentrate per year in its first five-year period, and 60,000 tons copper and 19,000 pounds of gold during its estimated 15-year life. The investment approved will be funded over a period of three years using internal cashflows and capital-efficient debt instruments. The company stated that production is expected to start in the second half 2028. This coincides with a structural gap in copper supply, which would support higher prices. Harmony's recent MAC Copper purchase and Eva Copper will deliver a total of approximately 100,000 tons of Copper a year once fully operational, said Chief Executive Beyers Nel. Nel stated that the project offers a compelling exposure to copper fundamentals, and when combined with current strength in gold price, it provides significant upside potential. We have confidence in the future outlook of copper and gold. Eva Copper will deliver attractive margins, strong cashflows, and a low risk profile.
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Sources say Saudi Arabia will open more alcohol shops as restrictions ease.
More milestones in the opening up of Kingdom Dhahran and Jeddah follow Riyadh's 'Booze Bunker. Aramco has not commented on the reported plan By Timour Azhari & Maha El Dahan RIYADH - Saudi Arabia is planning to open two new liquor stores, one of which will serve non-Muslim foreign employees at the state oil giant Aramco. The kingdom has also eased restrictions on alcohol, according to those briefed about the plans. Launching outlets in Dhahran, a province in eastern Saudi Arabia, and in Jeddah, a port city, would mark a new milestone in the efforts of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to open the country. Last year, the kingdom, the birthplace and home of Islam, opened an alcohol shop in Riyadh that served non-Muslim diplomatic personnel. This was the first outlet to open since the ban was imposed 73 years earlier. Source: STORE PLANTED IN ARAMCO COMPOUND One of the three people we spoke to confirmed that Aramco will own the compound where Dhahran's new store will be located. The source said that Saudi authorities informed them about the plan. Two sources claimed that a third liquor shop was in the works in Jeddah for non-Muslim diplomatic missions, as many of these missions have honorary consuls. Two sources stated that both stores would open in 2026. However, no specific timeline had been provided. The Government Media Office did not respond immediately to questions about the plans for both stores, which had previously been unreported. Aramco refused to comment. No official announcement was made regarding the regulations following the opening of the Riyadh shop in a nondescript, diplomatic building known by some diplomats to be the "booze bunker". Two sources confirmed that the Riyadh Store's clientele has recently been expanded to include nonmuslim Saudi residents who hold a Saudi Premium Residence. Entrepreneurs, investors and people with special talents have received premium residencies. Prior to the Riyadh Store, most alcohol was only available via diplomatic mail, on the black market, or through home brewing. Alcohol is sold in other Gulf countries except Kuwait with certain restrictions. REFORMS COVER WOMEN'S DRIVER, EVENTS Bin Salman’s reforms have allowed Saudis and non-Saudis to participate in activities that were once impossible, from going to the movies to dancing at desert raves. The 2017 reforms included allowing women the right to drive, easing the rules on segregation between men and women in the public space and reducing significantly the power of religious police. As part of a plan to diversify the economy and become less dependent on crude oil, the kingdom has eased restrictions in order to attract tourists and foreign businesses. A media report from May, which was picked up by international media following its appearance on a wine-related blog, stated that Saudi Arabian authorities planned to allow the sale of alcohol in tourist areas as they prepare to host the soccer World Cup 2034. A Saudi official denied the report at the time, but did not provide a source. This report sparked an online debate, with the king of the kingdom also holding the title of Custodians of the Two Holy Mosques in Mecca and Medina - the most revered sites in Islam. The social liberalization process has been accelerated, but the leaders have adopted a cautious and gradual approach to alcohol. Saudi Arabia is aggressively expanding the local tourism portfolio through its Red Sea Global Development, which includes plans for 17 new hotels to be opened by May next year. These resorts are ultra-luxurious but remain dry. When asked by the media this month whether there were plans to relax alcohol restrictions to attract foreign tourists, Saudi Tourism Minister Ahmed Al-Khateeb replied: "We understand that some international travellers wish to drink alcohol while visiting the Saudi destinations. However, nothing has yet changed." When asked if "yet", meant that this could change soon, he replied: "I'll leave it up to you to elaborate." Andrew Heavens edited this article.
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EU pushes US to honor trade agreement by reducing steel tariffs
On Monday, European Union ministers were to encourage top U.S. officials to implement more of the EU-U.S. July trade agreement by reducing U.S. duties on EU steel as well as removing them on EU goods like wine and spirits. In their first trip to Brussels after taking office, U.S. commerce secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer would meet EU ministers for trade in a 90-minute lunch meeting. Before that meeting, European ministers met to discuss urgent trade issues including Chinese restrictions on rare earth and chips exports. No IMMEDIATE Breakthroughs Expected Maros SEFCIOVIC, European Trade Commissioner, said that he didn't expect to make any breakthroughs immediately with his U.S. counterparts. "I don't think it is about negotiations today. This is a time for a stocktaking exercise. "I think it's also about the political evaluation of EU-U.S. bilateral relations," he added. The United States imposed a 15% tariff on the majority of EU goods under the deal reached at the end of July, while the European Union agreed that many of their duties on U.S. imported goods would be removed. The approval of the European Parliament and EU government is required, which EU diplomats claim has frustrated Washington. While insisting that the process is proceeding, the 27-nation group also points to items agreed upon on which they want to see progress. Chief among these are steel and aluminum. Since mid-August, the United States has implemented a tariff of 50% on metals. This is applied to metals in 407 "derivatives" such as motorcycles or refrigerators. Next month, more derivatives could be added. The risk that the July accor gets blown out EU diplomats claim that these actions, as well as the prospect of new tariffs for trucks, minerals critical, planes and turbines, could undermine the July agreement. One EU diplomat stated: "We are in a delicate situation." The U.S. looks for ways to criticize the EU, while we try to convince them to resolve steel and other issues. The bloc wants to see a wider range of products that are only subject to the low tariffs before Trump. The bloc's list of wants includes olives, wine, pasta, biotech, medical devices, and biotech. The EU is ready to discuss possible areas of regulatory cooperation such as automobiles, the bloc's purchase of U.S. Energy, which reached $200 billion in this year, or joint efforts to improve economic security. Reporting by Philip Blenkinsop. (Editing by Jane Merriman, Conor Humphries and Conor Humphries.)
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Gold remains stable as Fed rate cuts bets counteract dollar strength
Gold prices were stable on Monday as the growing expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December helped to offset pressures from a strong dollar. As of 1153 GMT, spot gold rose 0.1% to $4,069.10 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery fell 0.3%, to $4.065.40 an ounce. Gold priced in greenbacks is now more expensive than it was on Friday when the dollar hit a six-month high. "Gold stabilized as investors assessed the prospect of a further Fed rate cut, after New York Fed president John Williams indicated there may be space to lower borrowing rates amid a softening labor market," said Ole Hansen. Williams said that the Fed's goal of inflation could be achieved without risking the interest rate decline. This would also help to prevent a job market slide. The CME FedWatch tool revealed that after Williams' dovish remarks on Friday, bets of a rate reduction next month had risen to 75%, up from 40%. In low-interest rate environments, gold, which is a non-yielding investment, does well. Investors waited for key economic indicators such as U.S. retail sale, unemployment claims, and producer prices due this week. On Monday, U.S. and Ukraine will continue to work on a plan that would end the conflict with Russia. They had agreed to modify a proposal which was seen by many as being too favorable to Moscow. Gold struggles to gain momentum on Fed cuts likely being pushed. China demand worries, easing of trade risks. Standard Chartered noted that central banks are net buyers on the downside and continue to be concerned about Supreme Court ruling (on Trump's Tariffs). Palladium rose 0.3% and platinum 0.4%, while spot silver gained 0.2% to $50.09 an ounce. (Reporting and editing by Noel John, Bengaluru. Saad Sayeed, Krishna Chandra Eluri and Mrigank Dhaniwala)
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SWB Financial Services to List on NYSE with $8.1 Billion SPAC Deal
The special purpose acquisition company announced on Monday that SWB, a financial services firm in the U.S., will become public through a merger of Soulpower Acquisition Corp. and SWB in an $8.1 billion deal. After a long slump on Wall Street, blank-check deals are making a comeback in 2025. Veteran SPAC sponsors have turned back to this alternative to the traditional IPO. SWB, a newly-formed vehicle, was established to launch Soul World Bank. This bank intends to provide a range of financial services including stablecoins, banking services and other services. The company intends to obtain a bank license from Bank of Asia which is in liquidation at the British Virgin Islands. SWB and blockchain developer Animoca Brands will work together to create a stablecoin that can be used across borders. A SPAC is a shell corporation that raises funds through an IPO in order to merge with a privately owned business. This allows it to become public without the traditional IPO. SWB has agreed to a $5 billion equity facility with CREO Investments. The combined company's stock will be traded on the New York Stock Exchange with the ticker "SOUL". After the merger, SWB founder Justin Lafazan is expected to become chairman of the combined firm. This will happen in the first quarter 2026. (Reporting by Arasu Kannagi Basil in Bengaluru; Editing by Shreya Biswas)
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Gold remains stable as Fed rate cuts bets counteract dollar strength
Gold prices were stable on Monday, as the growing expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week helped to offset pressures from a strong U.S. Dollar. As of 1011 GMT, spot gold rose 0.1% to $4,070.97 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery fell 0.3%, to $4.067.80 an ounce. Gold priced in greenbacks is more expensive to holders of other currencies. "Gold stabilized as investors assessed the prospect of a further Fed rate cut, after New York Fed president John Williams indicated there may be space to lower borrowing rates amid a softening labor market, while other officials struck a cautious tone," Ole Hansen said, head of commodity strategies at Saxo Bank. Williams said on Friday that the Fed's goal of inflation could be achieved without risking the interest rate cut. This would also help to prevent a job market slide. The CME FedWatch tool revealed that after Williams' dovish remarks on Friday, bets on a rate reduction next month had risen to 76%, up from 40%. In low-interest rate environments, gold, which is a non-yielding investment, does well. Investors are awaiting key economic indicators such as U.S. retail sale, unemployment claims, and producer prices due this week. Geopolitically, the U.S. will continue to work with Ukraine on Monday to develop a plan that would end the conflict with Russia. They had agreed to modify a previous proposal which was seen by many as being too favorable to Moscow. Gold struggles to gain momentum on Fed cuts likely being pushed. China demand worries, easing of trade risks. Standard Chartered noted that central banks are net buyers on the downside and continue to be concerned about Supreme Court ruling (on Trump's Tariffs). Palladium was down 0.4%, to $1369. Platinum rose 0.4%, to $1516.20 per ounce. (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahniwala, Saad Sayeed, and Noel John from Bengaluru)
Investors bet on a December Fed cut as stocks edge up and the dollar drops
Global stocks rose Monday as investors grew more confident that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December. This helped to offset recent investor anxiety over excessive valuations of tech companies, which has caused volatility this month.
The markets are preparing for the release of U.S. retailer sales and producer price data later this week as well as the highly anticipated British budget by Finance Minister Rachel Reeves on Wednesday.
Geopolitical events were also a focus. After agreeing to change an earlier proposal, which Kyiv and Europe deemed too favorable to Moscow, the U.S. was working with Ukraine to develop a plan that would end the conflict with Russia. This weighed down on oil prices as an agreement could theoretically allow more Russian supplies to be released through an easing in sanctions.
EUROPEAN STOCKS CATCH-UP
Stocks in Europe rose in early trading to catch up with Wall Street's late rally on Friday. However, they were mostly unchanged by midday as losses in defense stocks increased. The STOXX 600 ended the week with a 2.2% loss, and was now only 0.1% higher.
Nasdaq and S&P futures both rose by 0.8% and 0.5% respectively.
John Williams, a prominent Fed policymaker, said on Friday that rates could fall "in a near-term" and raise the possibility of reducing them again in December.
Goldman Sachs' chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a report that "we expect another Fed reduction in December followed by two additional moves in March 2026 and June 2026, which will bring the funds rate down to 3-3.25%."
The risks of more cuts are likely to be a reality in 2019, as the news about underlying inflation is positive and the decline in the employment market could be hard to control with the modest growth we expect.
Fed funds futures indicate that there is a 65% probability of a 25 basis point cut next month.
DATA FOG PERSISTS
The record U.S. shutdown, which ended earlier this week, has clouded the outlook of U.S. interest rates as policymakers struggle with data gaps that would normally inform their view on the world's biggest economy.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Friday that it would not be releasing the October Consumer Price Report due to the shutdown which prevented data collection.
Senior economist Paolo Zanghieri of Generali Investments said that he and his colleagues believed the market had priced in more rate reductions than the Fed could deliver.
"We think the chances of a reduction next month are 50/50." He said that given the limited number of new data, it was reasonable for Fed to delay until January while still signaling an easing bias.
"More important, the market's expectations of nearly four cuts in 2015, based on hopes of rapid deflation, seem overly optimistic. He added that we expect 50 basis points to be eased by the summer.
ALERT FOR YEN INTERVENTION
The yen was the main focus on the currency market, with the dollar gaining 0.3% and trading at 156.81yen. The Japanese currency has dropped in value by around 1.8% so far this November, making it the worst performing major currency against dollar.
The yen has been under pressure due to growing concerns about Japan's fiscal health, low domestic rates and the possibility of Japanese intervention.
Last week, Finance Minister Satsuki Catayama increased her verbal efforts in support of the currency. This seems to have given the currency a temporary floor.
"Dollar/yen is going to go up even if you intervene. They will have to accept this. They can only intervene to slow down the pace, but they cannot stop the direction," said Saktiandi Supat, Maybank's regional head of FX strategy and research.
The dollar fell against the majority of other currencies due to the expectation that the Fed will cut rates in the next few months. The euro rose by 0.3% to $1.1548 and sterling gained 0.1% to $1.3114 before Wednesday's announcement.
Brent crude futures remained steady at $62.59 per barrel after hitting a session's low of $62. Prior to that, spot gold increased 0.35%, reaching $4,079 per ounce. (Reporting and editing by Rae Wee, Gareth Jones, Alex Richardson and Lincoln Feast)
(source: Reuters)