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Australian shares rise as mining rally offsets bank pressure
Australian shares rose on Tuesday, as gains by gold and base-metal miners countered weakness among banks and consumer stocks. This was after the central banking struck a cautious tone regarding inflation and policy ease. After a 0.8% decline on Monday, the S&P/ASX 200 rose by 0.2% to 8,899.40. Minutes The Reserve Bank of Australia meeting in September reinforced its cautious and data-dependent approach towards inflation and spending, ahead of its next decision on policy in early November. Markets now price roughly even odds of a November 4 rate cut and a 60% chance of one in December, down from 70% earlier after a stronger-than-expected inflation reading late last month. Three of the four "Big Four" bank fell as much as one percent each. According to Junvum Kim of Saxo Markets, a senior Asia-Pacific sales trader, the slowing rate cuts are bad for banks primarily due to the fact that lower interest rates stimulate the property market, and home loans represent a large portion of their revenue. Kim stated that the minutes from RBA's September meeting raised doubts about whether we will end this year without another rate reduction, disappointing investors. Consumer discretionary stocks were the biggest drag on the market, falling 1% and reaching their lowest level since early August. The mining sub-index, on the other hand rose about 2.5%. This was largely due to gold miners who soared when bullion broke through $4,100 an ounce, on the prospect of U.S. interest rate cuts. Northern Star Resources & Evolution Mining both jumped by 2.8% and respectively 1.9%. Rio Tinto's shares rose 1.8% following a sequential increase in quarterly shipments of the commodity. However, the company said that it needed a stronger push to reach its annual target in the last quarter. BHP Group increased by 2.2% while Fortescue gained about 1.8%. New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX50 index fell 0.6% and finished the session at 13,276.99.
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Tchiroma, the opposition candidate in the presidential election of Cameroon, claims victory and urges Biya concede
Issa tchiroma, the opposition candidate in Cameroon's presidential election on October 12, declared victory late Monday night. He urged President Paul Biya not to be deterred by the results and to "honor the truth of the vote box". "Our victory is obvious." Tchiroma, in a Facebook post from his hometown in Garoua (north of Central African State), said that it must be respected. The people have made their choice. "This choice must be respected." Tchiroma (76), a former spokesperson for the government and minister of employment, broke with Biya in early this year, and launched a campaign which attracted large crowds, and received endorsements from an alliance of opposition parties, and civic groups. Biya is the oldest head of state in the world at 92 years old. He has been in power for 43 years. Analysts expected that his control of state institutions, and fragmented opposition would give him the edge in this election despite public discontent with economic stagnation and security. Tchiroma thanked voters who resisted intimidation by staying late at the polling station to protect their votes. Tchiroma added: "I thank all the candidates who have sent me congratulations and acknowledged the will of people." He warned: "We put the regime ahead of its responsibilities. Either it shows greatness and accepts the truth at the ballot box or it chooses a turbulent country that will leave a permanent scar on the heart of our nation." The government hasn't officially responded to Tchiroma’s declaration. The Minister of Territorial Administration Paul Atanga Nji, however, warned that unilaterally publishing results could be considered as "high treason", adding that the Constitutional Council is the only body with the authority to declare the winner. The Cameroon electoral law allows for results to be posted and published at polling stations. However, the final results must be approved by the Constitutional Council. It has until the 26th of October to announce the result. Tchiroma announced that he will soon release a breakdown by region of the vote totals compiled from results publicly displayed. This victory is neither the work of a single man nor a single party. He said, "It is the triumph of a nation." He also called upon the military, security services and government administrators to remain loyal "to the republic, not to the regime". The Cameroon electoral system, which uses a single round of voting, gives the presidency to the candidate who receives the most votes. Over 8 million voters were registered. Reporting by Desire Danga Essigue, Blaise Essigue; Writing by Bate Felice; Editing and Michael Perry.
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Oil prices rise as US and China ease trade tensions
Early signs of a thawing in U.S. China trade tensions helped to boost market sentiment and ease concerns about global fuel demand. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Monday that U.S. president Donald Trump is committed to meeting Chinese president Xi Jinping this month in South Korea, as the two countries work to ease tensions over tariffs and export controls. He added that there were many communications between both sides at the weekend, and more meetings are expected. Brent crude futures were up 22 cents or 0.4% to $63.54 a barrel by 0405 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil was at $59.71 a barrel, an increase of 22 cents or 0.4%. Brent closed 0.9% higher in the previous session and U.S. WTI ended up 1%. Oil prices stabilized after investors weighed U.S. China tensions against the demand, Saxo Bank analysts wrote in a report. They added that Trump's tone had mellowed and he was now open to a possible deal. Oil markets have historically been buoyed by the prospect of stronger trade ties, which investors expect to lead to increased global growth. Recent developments such as Beijing's increased export controls on rare Earths, and Trump's threat of 100% tariffs on software and export restrictions from November 1 have dampened sentiment. The oil price dropped to its lowest level since May last week. Trump also cast doubts on the prospects of a meeting between Xi and Trump during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit (APEC), which is scheduled for South Korea on October 30th and November 1st, saying on Truth Social that "now there appears to be no reason for doing so." The relationship between Washington and Beijing is expected to remain in the spotlight despite the fact that the markets have been able to sell off due to the more conciliatory tone. Daniel Hynes, ANZ analyst, said that the oil industry is still navigating geopolitical issues. China announced it would tax U.S. ships, including oil tanks, that arrive at its shores. This led to several cancellations at the last minute and an increase in shipping costs. Trump's decision to end the Gaza War, which has lasted two years and caused turmoil in the Middle East, on Monday limited the upside of the stock market. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, stated in their monthly report that the oil shortage would be reduced by 2026 as the OPEC+ alliance continues to increase planned production. Reporting by Anjana Anil from Bengaluru, and Emily Chow from Singapore. Editing by Jacqueline Wong, Clarence Fernandez.
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Shanghai copper prices rise as US-China tensions ease
Shanghai copper prices rebounded Tuesday, as investors focused on supply shortages and mine disruptions instead of fears about a possible escalation of U.S.-China tensions. As of 0330 GMT, the most active copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange had risen 1.38% to 86,070 Yuan ($12,060.87) a metric ton. The hope of a deescalation between the two world economic giants grew when U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent stated that President Donald Trump was still on track to meet Chinese Leader Xi Jinping at the end of October in South Korea. Copper prices are supported by mine disruptions including the suspension of Grasberg operations in Indonesia at the end of last month. This is due to expectations of a deficit of supply in 2026. Analysts at Chinese broker Minmetal Futures reported that demand also improved after a price decline on Monday. As of 0354 GMT on Tuesday, the benchmark three-month contract for copper on London Metal Exchange (LME), was down 0.24% to $10,794 per ton after a gain of more than 2% on Monday. Aluminium gained 0.24% among other SHFE base-metals, while zinc was up 0.18%. Nickel fell 0.43%. Tin dropped 0.58%. Lead was not changed. The LME also saw a rise in aluminium of 0.43% and lead by 0.2%. Zinc, nickel, and tin, however, were not much changed. $1 = 7.1363 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu Sahu; Lewis Jackson)
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Swedish Firm to Deliver Carbon-Neutral Surveys for Baltic Sea OW Projects
Swedish offshore survey specialist Njord Survey has signed a long-term framework agreement with German transmission system operator (TSO) 50Hertz to support offshore wind development in Baltic Sea.Under the agreement, Njord Survey will deliver geophysical and ROV seabed survey services to support offshore wind development in the Baltic Sea, contributing to the reinforcement of Europe’s future power grid.According to the company, biofuel will be used by all vessels which minimize emissions.“This agreement with 50Hertz reflects our dedication to building lasting client relationships. It underlines the strength of our commercial strategy and confirms Njord Survey’s role as a trusted partner in Europe’s offshore energy transition,” said Martin Wikmar, CEO of Njord Survey:“We are honored by the trust 50Hertz has placed in us. With our people and technology, we will provide the high-quality data needed for safe and efficient project design in Germany – supporting the secure integration of renewable energy into the European grid,” added Philip Ljungström, Project Director at Njord Survey.
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Investors wary of US-China trade tensions causing Asian markets to be hesitant
Asian stocks fell on Tuesday as uncertainty about whether China and the U.S. could reach a lasting trade deal tempered signs that the U.S. was preparing to hold talks with China later this month. The S&P 500 Futures and MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan, which had seen early gains, have now traded flat. The markets had earlier reacted to the positive cash session on Monday after U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent stated that U.S. president Donald Trump is still on track to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at a South Korean summit in late October. Wall Street's major indexes rose as much as 2,2% overnight, led largely by chipmakers after Trump adopted a more accommodative tone in his remarks on the trade tensions between China and the United States. The global equities market turned abruptly red on Friday, after Trump announced tariffs of 100% on China. This brought back memories of the volatility that followed April's "Liberation Day". The selling only stopped after Trump cooled down his rhetoric in his Truth Social network. Citi analysts stated in a report that they did not anticipate an escalation in trade tensions between Beijing & Washington. The U.S. might have to adjust its negotiation strategy because China is the only country that has bargaining power. A spokesperson from China's Commerce Ministry said Tuesday that the U.S. could not seek to negotiate while making threats. This would keep markets nervous about the prospects of a wider trade agreement. U.S. China will start charging port fees to ocean shipping companies that transport everything from holiday toys and crude oil. The high seas are now a major front in the trade dispute between the two world's largest economies. The Hang Seng Index, which measures blue-chip Chinese shares, fell 0.4% after initial gains in Hong Kong. TSMC, which has partnered Broadcom in order to manufacture its first artificial intelligence processors in-house, rose to a new record. This was the leading Asian stock market with a 0.8% rise. The South Korean Kospi index rose 0.6% on Tuesday after Samsung Electronics announced a 32% increase in operating profit for the third quarter compared to a year ago. This was a surprise, as analysts had expected a decline in sales of high bandwidth memory chips. However, demand for conventional memory helped offset this. Japan's Nikkei index dropped 1.2% after the markets reopened following a holiday. The U.S. Dollar was unchanged at 152.31 Japanese yen against the yen. The dollar index (which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket six currencies) was trading at 99.246. This is a 0.1% decrease. The Federal Reserve is expected to ease interest rates later in the month, according to traders. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the pricing of Fed funds futures indicates a 96.7% chance of a 25 basis-point reduction in interest rates during the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting on the 29th of October. A day earlier the probability was 98.3%. The euro barely changed at $1.1571 on Monday after French President Emmanuel Macron refused to resign, as two no-confidence votes could topple his government by the end the week. Brent crude last rose 0.2% to $63,45 per barrel following an OPEC report released on Monday. The report showed that world oil production is expected closely match the demand in 2020 as OPEC+ increases its output. This was a significant change from last months outlook which predicted a shortage of supply by 2026. Gold rose 1.1% to $4.155.90 an ounce. The precious metals are continuing to break records. Bitcoin dropped 1.9% to $113.629.29 while ether fell 3% to $4.161.79.
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Iron ore prices fall on profit-taking, as the focus shifts from rising supplies to weak steel
Iron ore futures fell on Tuesday as investors booked profit after focusing back on expectations of growing ore supplies in the remainder of 2025. Meanwhile, steel demand in China, the top consumer, is seasonally slowing. As of 0331 GMT, the most traded January iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange fell by 1.82% to $784 yuan (US$109.90) per metric ton. Earlier in the session, it reached its highest level since 23 September at 809.5 Yuan. As of 0321 GMT the benchmark November iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange fell 2.08% to $100.55 a ton after reaching its highest level in February at $108.05. Rio Tinto, the world's biggest iron ore supplier, said Tuesday that it must finish strong in order to reach its target for iron ore shipments. Analyst Chu Xinli at broker China Futures said that the price rally on Monday night was driven by a reaction to a potential rise in ore transport costs, which will in fact have hardly any impact. "Therefore it is necessary to reprice today which contributed in part to a downward adjustment." On Tuesday, the United States and China will start charging port fees to ocean shipping companies that transport everything from holiday toys or crude oil. The high seas are now a major front in the trade dispute between the two world's largest economies. Analysts said that investors were compelled to liquidate long positions in order to cash out profits due to the looming headwinds caused by rising supply and weakening demand. This led to a collapse of prices. Coke and other steelmaking materials, such as coking coal, fell by 0.83% et 0.82% respectively. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are down significantly. Rebar fell 1%, while hot-rolled coils and wire rods dropped 0.95% and stainless steel declined 0.99%. ($1 = 7.134 Chinese yuan) (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich; Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
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Mayors of the United States to lead at COP30 instead of Trump
Brazil Climate Talks to Focus on Local Implementation American mayors participate in climate talks despite a waning domestic climate Local leaders offer assurance and seek help from global partners By Carey L. Biron Watson and other U.S. Mayors are looking forward to the November U.N. global COP30 climate talk in Belem Brazil. They want to use this summit to reaffirm and expand their climate work, and to find new ideas and support. "We are proving, in a time when the government is under pressure to take action on climate change, that cities can grow and prosper while reducing emissions at the same." Donald Trump, who called climate change "a con job" during the U.N. General Assembly meeting in September 2017, has twice withdrawn from Paris Climate Agreement and cancelled clean energy investment worth tens or billions of dollars. The White House referred all questions to the State Department which didn't respond to a detailed request. Taylor Rogers, White House spokesperson, said in an email that "for far too long arbitrary climate targets have bankrupted countries and sent manufacturing to other countries who don't follow the rules." She said: "It's time to stop these brutal green policies before it's too late and they destroy the free world." Austin's plan to reduce emissions by 30 percent is threatened because of federal cuts made in the past. The mayor would like to discuss with local leaders how to fund projects, protect residents from extreme weather conditions and strategies to combat climate misinformation. COP30 hosts Brazil has put particular emphasis on local government, while an event in Rio de Janeiro before the official summit will attract hundreds of mayors. Julie Cerqueira is chief program officer at the Natural Resources Defense Council in Washington. She said, "I hope we see state and local governments as well as the private sector continue to be the drivers for climate action." NEW CHAPTER According to University of Maryland, cities, states, and businesses in the United States could reduce greenhouse gas emissions up to 62% between 2035 and 2035 by continuing to take action. The U.S. has its own city regulators who set the budgets. They have a particular say in building codes, waste management, transportation and local adoption of renewable energies. Kate Johnson, North America Director for C40, an international network of cities, explained that U.S. Cities are looking forward to the COP30 in order to discuss innovative financing solutions and build partnerships with other cities. She cited the rise of local funding that has been successful, including Seattle's $1.6 billion in transportation funding approved by voters. This money will be used for expanding bike lanes, electric vehicle charging stations, and testing low-emission delivery services, among other things. But cities will require more funding. C40 estimates that in its recent report, urban climate action will cost $4.5 trillion annually globally until 2030. Ayse Kaa, professor of political science at Swarthmore College, Pennsylvania, says that the COP is still a national-led process. However, in recent years, local officials have been given more credit for their role in climate action. How many EV chargers will a city need in the near future and now? She said that local leaders are the best. Ready Playbook Trump's second term has seen him roll back more sustainability measures, following in the footsteps of his predecessor Joe Biden and his multi-billion dollar clean energy plans. Cerqueira said that the cities' experiences of Trump's first presidency from 2017-2021 have strengthened partnerships with state and local leaders, as well as other governments, on climate action. She said, "This time, they've already shown this muscle." They're connected to the multilateral system and know how they can contribute towards these international climate goals. Many cities have set more ambitious goals than their governments to reduce emissions. Many American cities are suffering from budget cuts in part because Biden's climate investment was primarily aimed at local implementation. Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego said, "We have been profoundly affected by the changes in energy policy." We've seen a few companies go out of business in the EV sector. "We are really seeing some major cuts in the clean-energy sector." Gallego is the chair of Climate Mayors. This national network, which includes 349 local leaders, was formed in 2017 when the United States withdrew for the first time from the Paris Agreement.
Dance ship-to-ship at the MORNING BID EUROPE
Gregor Stuart Hunter gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.
The container ports are now the new economic battlefields. The U.S., China and other nations are intensifying their negotiations. As a result, they will begin to charge port fees for ocean shipping companies that transport everything from crude oil to toys.
S&P futures lost 0.4% of their gains after China's Commerce Ministry said that the U.S. could not make threats and also seek to negotiate.
This came just days after Donald Trump, on Friday, announced new tariffs on Chinese products starting November 1.
Trade worries snuffed a Wall Street stock rebound that started on Monday, after U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent stated Trump is still on track to meet Chinese Leader Xi Jinping at the end of October in South Korea.
After OpenAI announced that it had partnered with Broadcom in order to produce its own artificial intelligence processors, regional stocks briefly rose above the water.
This pushed Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's shares to record levels, while South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.9% as Samsung Electronics announced a 32% increase in its third-quarter profits, exceeding estimates.
China's No. Sources said that BYD's stock rose by 1% as it tipped Spain as the top candidate to build a third auto factory in Europe. The yen strengthened a little against the dollar, after Japan's Finance Minister warned that the country needed a new strategy to deal with inflation rather than yesterday's villain, deflation.
Gold rose 1.3% to $4164.90 an ounce. The precious metals are continuing to break records.
Bitcoin fell 1.8% to $113,719.84 at the last minute, but ether dropped 3% to $4.161.86.
Early European trading saw pan-regional futures up 0.2% last, German DAX Futures rise 0.1%, and FTSE Futures down 0.1%.
The following are the key developments that may influence Tuesday's markets:
Economic Data
Germany: CPI for September and HICP, ZEW Economic Sentiment for October
United Kingdom: Changes in the number of Unemployment Claimsant and HMRC Payrolls for September; ILO Unemployment rate and Average Weekly Earnings For August
Debt auctions
Germany: 2-year government debt auction
(source: Reuters)