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WNA: Uranium demand to increase 28% by 2030, as nuclear energy gains momentum
The World Nuclear Association (WNA), in a Friday report, said that the demand for uranium in nuclear reactors will increase by nearly 30% over the next five-year period as more countries rely on nuclear energy to achieve zero-carbon goals. The WNA's Nuclear Fuel Report, published every two years, said that new uranium mining operations and re-starting of existing ones will be required in the coming years to satisfy the growing demand. It said that concerns over energy independence and security due to geopolitical issues have also increased interest in nuclear energy. The report stated that the demand for uranium used in nuclear reactors will increase by 28% in 2030, and by 2040 it is expected to more than double to 150,000 metric tonnes a year from 67,000 tons per annum in 2024. According to the report, the mine supply is sufficient in the short-term, but shortages may occur after 2030. The report stated that it takes 10-20 years for uranium to be produced after the first discovery. In order to avoid future supply disruptions, it is necessary to accelerate the development of new projects in this decade. The global nuclear capacity by the end of 2025 will be 398 gigawatts (GWe), with an additional 71 GWe under construction. The report stated that nuclear capacity will increase by 13% in 2030, and by 87% by 2040 to 746 GWe. It said that "a number of countries have implemented nuclear moratoriums or phase-out policies, and are now re-evaluating their long-term policies on energy and considering nuclear energy as a part of the mix." The report also said that small modular reactors are cheaper and easier to build. The global uranium industry has been recovering in recent years. Production is expected to increase by 22% between 2022 and 2024, to 60,213 tonnes. The production is expected to grow, and secondary supplies, along with the output, will be sufficient to supply reactors for the short-term, added the report. The output of existing mines will halve in the decade following 2030. This means that new mines and idle operations will need to be restarted. The report stated that the regional market disruptions caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine have increased the need for enriched capacity. Reporting by Eric Onstad and Editing by Louise Heavens
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Gold Heads for Best Week in Three Months Ahead of US Jobs Data
Gold prices rose on Friday, and were on course for their biggest weekly gain in three-months, as investors looked forward to the U.S. Non-farm Payrolls Data due later that day. As of 0741 GMT, spot gold was up by 0.1%, at $3,548.09 an ounce. Bullion is up 2.9% this week. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery rose by 0.1% to $3.608.90. The U.S. unemployment claims increased more than expected in the last week. Meanwhile, ADP's National Employment Report revealed that private payrolls were below expectations for August. Both of these signals further evidence of a weakening labor market. Investors now focus on the U.S. Non-farm Payrolls Report, due at noon GMT. According to a poll it is expected that 75,000 new jobs were created in August, compared to 73,000 in July. Ole Hansen is the head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. He said that the short-term outlook for gold depends on the U.S. employment report, its impact on bond yields and rate cuts, as well as the dollar. A weak NFP will drive prices towards $3,650 while the support level between $3,450 and $3,500 will remain key. Speaking earlier this week, several Federal Reserve officials cited labour market concerns to support the case for rate reductions. The Fed is expected to deliver its first rate reduction of the year at the end of its two-day meeting beginning September 17, lowering interest rates 25 basis points. Gold, which reached a record-high of $3,578.50 Wednesday, has no yield, but it performs well when interest rates are low. Hansen stated that the combination of lower financing costs, Fed independence, geopolitical risk, a steepening curve, and a weaker US dollar, all point to further gains for precious metals. If the current trend continues, spot silver will be up 0.3% at $40.81 an ounce, and it could reach its third consecutive weekly gain. Platinum rose 1% to $1381.33 while palladium gained 0.2%, reaching $1125.74.
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Iron ore gains for the second week in a row as dollar weakness overshadows supply problems
The price of iron ore futures increased for the fourth consecutive session on Friday, and was heading to a second week-long gain as a weaker dollar and more bets for an interest rate reduction in the United States overshadowed a muted recovery in demand after a military display by China, which is a major consumer. As of 0814 GMT, the benchmark October Iron Ore traded on Singapore Exchange was 0.28% higher than its previous price at $105.1 per metric ton. The dollar has been weakening amid speculation of a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut. The contract for the most traded January iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed daytime trading 0.77% higher, at 789.5 Yuan ($110.37), recording a week-to-week rise of 0.3%. Some analysts attributed the strength of the ore prices in the afternoon to the price rally on the coal market. Coking coal, coke and other steelmaking components have risen by 6.3% and 4,7% respectively. This is due to renewed concern over the reduction of supply. Earlier in the morning session, both ore contracts retreated from multi-week high in the prior day as a sharper-than-expected fall in demand weighed. The average daily hot metal production, which is a measure of iron ore consumption, fell by 4.7% compared to the previous week, reaching 2.29 million tonnes in the week ending September 4, the lowest level since February 28. The market participants expected that the output would fall more sharply this week, due to production restrictions in Tangshan's top steelmaking hub for the military parade to be held on September 3, to commemorate World War II. However, a drop of almost 5% caught some traders and analysts off guard. Iron ore prices are also being limited by the growing supply. The Shanghai Futures Exchange steel benchmarks gained a lot of ground due to higher raw material costs. Rebar, hot-rolled coil and wire rod rose 1% while stainless steel fell 0.3%.
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S.African's ARM stops mining at Bokoni Platinum Mine
African Rainbow Minerals, a South African company, has suspended operations in its Bokoni platinum mining asset while it develops a revised mine plan. The announcement came on the heels of a dramatic fall in earnings. ARM recorded a 2.2 billion rand ($125,000,000) impairment at Bokoni. The company cited a delay in ramping-up mining operations as well as a change of mining method. This pushed ARM’s basic earnings to 330 millions rand for the year ending June 30 from 3.1 billion. The company said that its headline earnings for the year, which excludes one-off items like impairments, was 2.695 billion Rands, down from 5.08 billion in previous years due to lower iron ore prices and coal. ARM purchased Bokoni in 2022 from Anglo American Resources Corporation and Atlatsa Resources Corporation. The purchase price was 3.5 billion rand. In 2017, the platinum mine was put under care-and-maintenance after a series of losses. ARM operates Bokoni with an existing 60,000 metric tons per month concentrator as part of an initial "early ounces plan" aimed at expanding the operations. The collapse in platinum group metals prices in 2023 has forced ARM, however, to delay the planned mine development project of 240,000 metric tons per month. "Without this greater scale, the lower volumes of production obtained from the Early Ounces Project could not achieve required economies-of-scale," ARM stated in a results report. The company stated that the current capacity of mining and milling was not sufficient to offset fixed costs, and maintain profitability. As a result, operations were suspended at the end June. The mine's cash cost increased by 48%, to $2,051 an ounce, as Bokoni's production of platinum group metals concentrates rose 62% in 2012. ARM will now focus on the development of ore reserves at Bokoni, while a feasibility for a smaller mine producing 120,000 metric tons per month is in progress. The study should be completed by early 2026. ($1 = 17,5632 rand). (Reporting and editing by Nelson Banya, Jacqueline Wong Jamie Freed Emelia Sithole Matarise).
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Indian Oil skips US crude, buys Nigerian, Mideast oil via tender, say sources
Indian Oil Corp, a top refiner in India, has opted to buy West African oil and Middle Eastern grade instead of buying U.S. crude. This was revealed by trade sources on Friday. People said that the state refiner bought from TotalEnergy a million barrels from each Nigerian oil grade Agbami or Usan, and Shell a million barrels from Abu Dhabi's Das crude. Das oil was purchased on a free-onboard basis, and Nigerian oil on a delivery basis. Both are due to arrive in Indian ports by the end of October or early November. IOC purchased 5 million barrels U.S. West Texas Intermediate in its previous auction last week. Indian refiners took advantage of an arbitrage window that was favorable and increased their purchases of U.S. crude oil through tenders. The U.S. purchases of oil also helped reduce India's huge trade surplus with the U.S. The U.S. crude landed costs were high in comparison to other grades despite the Brent-WTI differential for the first month. Being about $4 per barrel. Reporting by Nidhhi Verma from New Delhi, and Siyi LIu from Singapore. Editing by Harikrishnan Nair
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Berkeley UK confirms its profit forecast for fiscal year 2026-2027
Berkeley, a British homebuilder, reaffirmed Friday its profit forecasts for fiscal years 2026-2027 and reported stable sales over the first four-month period of fiscal 2026. Housing market in the UK is facing renewed uncertainty, as high borrowing costs are causing affordability issues. Planning and regulatory obstacles also compound the situation. Developers, such as Persimmon, Barratt Redrow and others, are increasingly using incentives and discounts to boost demand. Berkeley has maintained its forecasted pre-tax profit of 450 millions pounds ($607,9 million) for year ending April 30th 2026. It also projected a similar result for fiscal 2027. LSEG data shows that analysts expect a pre-tax profit of 460.9 millions pounds for fiscal 2026. The company estimates that its pre-tax profit will be evenly distributed between the first half and the second half of this fiscal year. ($1 = 0.7402 pound) (Reporting and editing by Sumana Niandy in Bengaluru)
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ASIA GOLD - Record prices inflict a stifling effect on top hubs, while China and India switch to discounts
Due to the record-high prices of gold, demand for physical gold dropped in major Asian hubs this week. Dealers in China and India, two top consumers in Asia, responded by offering steep discounts in order to attract buyers. On Wednesday, spot gold prices reached a record high of $3.578.50 an ounce and were on track for their best three-month period. Indian dealers offer a discount Up to $12 per ounce above official domestic prices. This includes 6% import duties and 3% sales taxes, as opposed to the $4 premium last week. The price hike has caused the demand to be thrown off. Harshad Ajmera is the owner of JJ Gold House in Kolkata. Indians will celebrate Dussehra (October) and Diwali (October), when purchasing gold is considered auspicious. India's gold price traded around 106.800 rupees for 10 grams last Friday after reaching a record-high 107.226 rupees this week. A Mumbai-based dealer said that jewellers purchased gold in the last week before the festive season. However, the price spike has caused uncertainty about demand. This week, Chinese dealers offered discounts ranging from $12 to $16 per ounce over the global benchmark price . Last week, the price of gold per ounce was set at $5 more than par. The demand in China has been weak. The lack of interest in buying physical metals at these high costs is evident. The lack of new import quotas has a significant impact on the physical flow chain, said Bernard Sin. In Hong Kong, gold In Singapore, the price was $1.60 higher than par. Gold traded at par prices with a premium of $2.20. People are having a hard time digesting higher prices. Peter Fung, Wing Fung Precious Metals' head of trading, said that the lack of buying and some selling is due to this. In Japan, bullion Was sold at a discounted price of $0.50 or a premium of $0.50 over spot prices.
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What you need to Know about the upcoming Norwegian elections
The general elections in Norway on September 8 and 9 are expected to be close between the centre-left block led by the Labour Party and the centre-right group dominated by the Progress Party. Inequality and taxation are two of the key issues that will determine the vote. The outcome may also have an effect on the energy and power supply to Europe, as well as the management and control of Norway's large sovereign fund. What's at stake? Labour, led by Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere, is seeking to extend its reign after returning to government in 2021. This follows eight years of Conservative governments. Labour led a minor government supported by the Socialist Left Party and the rural Centre Party. According to a Respons Analyse survey conducted for the daily Aftenposten between August 7-13, inequality is top of voters' concerns. Defence and national security have dropped to sixth place from a similar survey in April. The campaign has been dominated by cost of living issues and budgetary concerns, with the inflation rate in food prices at 5.9% over the past 12 months. According to the survey, voters also prioritized taxes, the economy and jobs. Labour's allies, however, want to raise taxes on the wealthy in order to fund tax cuts for families with low incomes and expand public services. Both Progress and Conservatives advocate for large tax reductions. SOVEREIGN FUND Norway’s wealth fund of $2 trillion, based on oil and gas revenues, allows the government to spend more freely than other European countries. However, inflation and interest rate control are factors that limit spending. The debate about investments in Israel was at the forefront of the campaign and sparked a public discussion on how the world's biggest sovereign fund works. Last week, the Socialist Left said that it would support a Labour government only if they divested from companies involved in "Israel's illegal war in Gaza". Labour rejected this demand but it could be hard to reject such demands after the election. OIL AND GAS Norway has replaced Gazprom as Europe's largest gas supplier after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Norway's importance is expected to increase as the European Union plans on phase-out Russian gas use by 2027. However, exploitation of new oil and gas resources is crucial to slowing production down. Depending on the influence of the Greens, Liberals, and other smaller parties, the election may decide whether Norway opens up new areas for oil exploration or if it restricts the companies to the existing ones. It is unlikely that radical proposals such as stopping exploration altogether will receive enough support. Norway exports its surplus power to Europe. Some left-wing and rights-wing parties continue to campaign on the issue of limiting exports. This would cause problems for both the neighbours of Norway and Brussels. Norway may not be a member of the EU, but it is a part of the Single European Market and must follow its rules. Restriction of power exports would be a breach. The parties are divided on how to meet the growing domestic demand, which is eroding Norway’s surplus. In recent years, little new generation capacity has been added. The cost of wind on land, solar, and new hydropower is relatively low, and the construction process is quick. However, there are local protests about their environmental impact. Due to its high cost, offshore wind is controversial. HOW DOES IT OPERATE? Norway uses a proportional system where 169 legislators are elected for a four-year fixed term from 19 geographic districts. A party that receives more than 4% of the vote nationwide will be guaranteed representation. However, a strong showing within a district can also result in one or several seats. A majority of 85 seats is not expected by any party, so the most likely outcome will be a continuation of minority rule by Labour or a coalition. Nine parties are predicted to gain seats, according to polls. On the left are Labour, the Socialists and the Greens. Labour's Stoere will remain in power if the centre-left party wins. If it is centre-right, either Progress Party leader Sylvi Listehaug, or Conservative Party chief Erna Solberg, could become Prime Minister. Results are expected to be known by the end of the ballot on 8 September at 1900 GMT. The results could be revealed late in the evening. However, the final result may not be known for several days. Negotiations after the election will determine which parties form the cabinet.
Bond yields fall before US payrolls, as Asian stocks follow Wall Street's upward trend
The Asian stock market followed Wall Street to a new record high on Friday, and Treasury yields fell to their lowest level in four months as traders bet that the Federal Reserve will cut rates later this month despite the fact that the U.S. employment data is due to be released at the end of the day.
The U.S. Dollar eased slightly on Friday, giving back gains made Thursday when the dollar was buoyed up by weak labour market data.
Gold has remained steady since Thursday, when it fell from its all-time high.
Investors waited for an OPEC+ summit this weekend to discuss further production increases.
The markets are almost certain that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point at the end of its two-day meeting to set interest rates on September 17. They have priced in a total of 60 basis points reductions for this year.
Data released on Thursday showed that Americans filed more new unemployment benefit applications than was expected in the previous week. Meanwhile, hiring by private companies slowed down in August. This is further evidence of a softening labor market.
Economists anticipate that Friday's nonfarm payrolls report will show an increase of 75,000 jobs for August. This is not much more than the 73,000 number for July. That figure was the first to ignite expectations for a Fed rate cut in the near future.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed this speculation later with an unexpectedly doveish speech during the closely watched Fed Symposium in Jackson Hole last month.
Ken Crompton is the head of rates at National Australia Bank. He said that unless there's a really stellar payrolls report, it's difficult to see anything that will change the market's mind about a September rate cut.
The terminal rate, and how to get there, is still a question.
The S&P 500 finished at a record-high on Thursday, thanks to expectations of a more accommodative monetary environment. The Nasdaq rose 1%, just missing its all-time high closing price from August 13th.
S&P futures were 0.1% higher Friday and Nasdaq Futures gained 0.3%.
The Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose by 0.8%, while the Taiwanese benchmark stock index also increased by 0.8%. Both markets are near recent record highs.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index and mainland Chinese blue chip index each gained about 0.4%.
Australia shares gained 0.3%.
Kyle Rodda is a senior financial analyst at Capital.com. He said that the non-farm payrolls report released tonight was a "sink or swim" moment for markets.
He said that the question was "whether the Fed is in a position to lower interest rates and cushion the economy or if they are behind the curve." If the data indicate that an economy is accelerating, it could cause volatility and risk aversion.
This week, long-term sovereign bonds have seen a lot of volatility, as fiscal deficits worsened from Washington to Brussels, London to Tokyo. Political instability is often to blame for this.
The bond yields rose sharply in mid-week due to a growing belief that the Fed would soon cut rates.
The yields on 30-year Treasuries fell to a 3-week low of 4.8410% in Tokyo on Friday, while those on 10- and 2-year Treasuries eased to 4-month lows of 4,1530% and 3,5816% respectively.
The yields on Japanese 30-year government bonds fell to 3.235% for the second consecutive day, after reaching a record high of 3.255% on Wednesday.
The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures currency against six major counterparts, fell 0.1% to 98.095 and regained the ground that it lost on Thursday.
The week-end gain is 0.3%. This comes on the heels of a big Tuesday when sterling and the yen both fell amid renewed fiscal concerns.
Gold rose 0.2%, to $3,552, retracing some of the 0.4% drop on Thursday. The market has stabilized after a seven-day, 6.3% rally that culminated in a record high of $3,578.50, reached on Wednesday.
Brent crude futures dropped 0.3%, to $66.77 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.3%, to $63.29.
Two sources with knowledge of the discussions said that eight members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, will discuss the possibility of raising production at a Sunday meeting in October.
Brent fell 3.5% in the last three days and WTI dropped 3.8%.
(source: Reuters)