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Sources say that OPEC+ may decide to raise July prices this week after discussing 2027 baselines.

OPEC+ will discuss a mechanism to set baselines for production in 2027 at a Wednesday meeting, delegates reported. Separate talks scheduled for Saturday may agree on a further accelerated increase of oil output for July.

Since a few years, the group, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, such as Russia has been discussing the new baselines, or production levels, from which each member can make cuts or increase.

Baseline issues can be controversial, because some countries, such as the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and others, have increased their oil producing capacity, arguing for higher quotas. Other members, such as Africans, have experienced a decline.

Two delegates stated that the 22-member group may adopt on Wednesday a mechanism for establishing the baseline assessment of 2027. Sources said that the Wednesday meeting would not affect output policy.

Eight OPEC+ member countries who are gradually increasing output will meet on Saturday and could agree to a July output increase of 411,000 barrels a day, just as they did in May and in June, according to the delegates.

Due to the sensitive nature of the subject, all sources declined to provide their names.

OPEC+ agreed to three levels of production cuts starting in 2022. Two are in effect until the end 2026, and the eighth member is unwinding the third.

The production policy could theoretically include the 2027 baselines when all current output reductions expire.

In April, oil prices dropped to a 4-year low below $60 per barrel as OPEC+ announced it would increase its production in May. Meanwhile, tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump raised fears of global economic weakness. Since then, it has recovered to around $65.

Sources told us earlier this month that, on top of a July output increase, the eight countries may also unwind the rest of the latest cut by the end October. Reporting by Alex Lawler and Ahmad Ghaddar; Editing by Emelia S. Sithole-Matarise and Kirsty Donovan

(source: Reuters)