Latest News

US bonds and dollar are battered by a'sell America" trade that is heating up

The global markets were hammered on Wednesday, as President Donald Trump's 104% tariffs against China went into effect. A savage sale of U.S. Bonds sparked concerns that foreign funds are fleeing U.S. Assets.

The markets have been roiled by a crisis of unprecedented volatility this week, with stocks losing trillions in value and commodities and emerging market markets being hit hard.

The dollar and U.S. Treasuries, the two mainstays of the global financial systems, were at the epicenter of Wednesday's rout.

Many fear that Trump's tariffs are so severe they will trigger a recession, forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. So, many sold their Treasury holdings and drove up yields when bond prices fell.

Investors rushed to gold and Swiss franc as the dollar, the ultimate safe-haven during times of turmoil, fell. This accelerated the flight away from industrial commodities and stocks.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. note yield rose 12 basis points today to 4.38%. This brings its increase over the past three days up to almost 40 bps. It is one of the fastest increases in recent years.

Chris Beauchamp is the chief strategist of IG. He said, "Last Week was an equity story, but as always, it has moved from an equity to a more important bond story."

The plumbing in the system has clearly begun to seize.

The auction of 10-year notes, which followed a disappointing three-year note sale the previous day, could add to the pressure. It would be a litmus test for investor appetite towards U.S. Government debt.

The ING economists said that "this seemingly'sell America trade' is now dominating the theme of rising recession risks that would normally have pushed yields downward."

COSTLY "GAME OF CHICKEN"

Washington confirmed overnight that the 104% duty on imports from China will take effect as planned at 12:01 am Eastern Time (0401 GMT). This deadline has passed without any new developments in trade.

Ting Lu is the chief China economist for Nomura. She said, "Both sides seem unwilling to give in."

Financial markets have been shook by the volatility caused by the shifting headlines about tariffs, and the threat of a long-term trade war between two of the world's largest economies.

S&P 500 index experienced one of the largest reversals since at least 50 years. The benchmark index lost 4.2 percentage points after a positive start and ended in a negative direction. The S&P 500 index lost $5.8 trillion of stock market value in just four days, which is the biggest drop since the index was first created in 1950.

This week, the VIX index (a measure of stock volatility) reached its highest level since August.

The STOXX 600 in Europe fell by nearly 3.5%. This brings the total loss of market capitalisation to $1.4 trillion since April 1, the day Trump announced his tariffs.

U.S. Stock Futures are in negative territory today, with a drop of 0.3-0.7%.

Trump claimed late on Tuesday that China was manipulating their currency to protect themselves against tariffs. He also said he believed China would reach a deal with him at some point.

Analysts at JPMorgan thought that the rapid escalation of U.S. Tariffs against China would be disruptive enough to send the global economy into a recession.

In a client note, they stated that "given the import bill from China the China tariff is equivalent to a whopping tax hike of $400bn on U.S. businesses and households." "The currency will likely be a release for China's policymakers."

The dollar fell 0.8%, to 145.09 Japanese yens and 0.7% to 0.8407 Swiss Francs.

The oil price fell by almost 5%, as concerns about the global energy market outweighed geopolitical worries. Brent crude futures fell 4.6% to $59.90 per barrel.

Gold gained 1.9% to $3,040 an ounce.

(source: Reuters)