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MORNING quote EUROPE-One last hurdle stays for the year

A look at the day ahead in European and international markets from Stella Qiu

2024 is practically over. A number of reserve banks have concluded their final policy meetings of the year - some held consistent and others cut, however all of them were noting a more uncertain 2025 when the international economy and trade might look greatly various with Donald Trump back in the White House.

That leaves the U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenses - the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation - as the one last hurdle before the generally quiet Christmas time. With benefit risks to inflation back on the Fed's radar, the result could have an outsized effect on markets.

Hence the care in Asia. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan hit a fresh three-month low on Friday. Nasdaq futures fell 0.7%,. while EUROSTOXX 50 futures were 1% lower.

Financiers are also alarmed a little that even Republicans. are not a fan of Trump's big budget, with the U.S. federal government dealing with a potential shutdown on Saturday if no action. is taken.

For the core PCE, projections are centred on a monthly increase of. 0.2% in November. It will most likely take a flat number to calm. things a bit while an increase of 0.3% or more might cast doubt. on any policy alleviating from the Fed next year.

Futures indicate simply 37 basis points of U.S. rate cuts in. 2025, comparable to less than two cuts, to a terminal rate of. 3.9%, much higher than just a couple of months ago.

That outlook took a heavy toll on the Treasury market, which. is headed for the 4th straight year of losses. The criteria. 10-year yields jumped 40 bps over the previous two weeks to cross a. key level of 4.5% for the very first time because May.

Looking back, it has actually been a great year for equities, bitcoin,. and the U.S. dollar, but absolutely nothing much else.

Japan's Nikkei jumped 16% to test record highs,. lastly having the ability to get rid of the spectre of years of. deflation. Even the flailing Chinese blue chips increased. 15% on hopes of more stimulus from Beijing to steady the regional. economy.

The U.S. dollar is up 7% for the year against its major. peers to stand at a two-year peak. The ruthless surge. has pressed every other currency to fight for survival,. specifically those in emerging markets where authorities have had. to intervene to keep their currencies afloat.

The Japanese yen is another significant loser, down a staggering. 12% this year.

Bitcoin made a sensational comeback, up 130% this year to hit. all-time highs, thanks to Trump's friendly policies.

Secret developments that could affect markets on Friday:

- UK retail sales for Nov

- U.S. PCE data for Nov

- Irish central bank Guv Gabriel Makhlouf offers remarks

- Speech by Norway Central Bank Deputy Governor Friend Longva

(source: Reuters)