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MORNING Quote AMERICAS-Wall St near records as central banks end 2024 with rate cuts

A take a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Samuel Indyk

The outstanding year for U.S. stock markets took a bit of a breather on Thursday, perhaps expected after a rally that has led the Nasdaq to 20,000 for the very first time today and the S&P 500 to another brand-new record high.

Gains have been driven by optimism over synthetic intelligence and rate-cut expectations, with attention now turning to the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting of the year, beginning next Tuesday.

The central bank is most likely to follow up November's 25 basis point rate cut with another of the very same magnitude, taking the fed funds rate to 4.25% -4.5%.

However where the Fed prepares to take rates in 2025 is what will interest markets more.

Donald Trump's election triumph last month has left investors with a lot of questions about the economy in 2025.

Will Trump push ahead with blanket tariffs on U.S. imports? Will these tariffs be inflationary? And how will the Fed react?

For now, markets are pricing in simply two more quarter-point cuts in 2025, presuming the Fed reduces rates on Wednesday.

Need to the Fed lower rate of interest next week, it will mean a total 100 basis points of alleviating this year - the exact same amount delivered by the European Central Bank (ECB) in 2024 after it reduced loaning expenses on Thursday for the fourth time.

But while ECB president Christine Lagarde left the door open for more rate cuts next year, the ECB president declined to commit to a particular rate path, leaving some financiers scratching their heads.

Markets have been betting that the euro zone's reserve bank would cut rates at every meeting through the first half of next year, perhaps even faster, with inflation back near target and growth staying slow.

Those expectations were little bit altered after Thursday's. choice, with the deposit rate seen being up to roughly 1.75% by. the end of next year.

The ECB has not been the only program in town this week, with. the Swiss and Canadian reserve banks each opting for jumbo 50. basis point rate cuts.

Next week, in addition to the Fed, the central banks of Sweden,. Norway, Britain and Japan will likewise reveal their policy. decisions.

The global rate of interest photo has left the dollar index. on track for a 1% gain this week, its most significant weekly dive. in a month and ninth positive week in 11. The U.S. currency has. increased versus all significant peers this year.

The S&P 500 is within touching range of current peaks and. on track for yearly gains of more than 20% for the second year. in a row, with futures on Friday indicating a firmer open, led. once again by the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

This time it's Broadcom leading the way greater after the. semiconductor company forecast quarterly revenue above Wall St. approximates on Thursday after-hours, forecasting booming need for. its customized AI chips. Shares are up 14% pre-market.

Secret developments that should provide more instructions to U.S. markets later Friday:

* U.S. import and export costs

(source: Reuters)