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Gold continues to rise on the back of a weaker dollar, but Iran remains in focus
The 'U.S. dollar' fell, and gold rose for the fourth?straight?session? to a?peak? of nearly two weeks on Wednesday. Dollar?slid, as traders focused on the Middle East war and its implications for the global monetary policies. Gold spot was up 1.3% at $4,728.75 an ounce by 1300 GMT after reaching its highest level since the 19th of March earlier in session. U.S. Gold Futures rose 1.7% to $4.755.70. The U.S. dollar fell for the second day in a row, making bullion priced in greenbacks more appealing to holders of foreign currencies. Bob Haberkorn is a senior market analyst at RJO Futures. He said that if the U.S. dollar continues to fall, gold prices could rise above $5,000 an ounce. Rate-cutting expectations may creep back into the market. He added that the focus was on Iran and Strait of Hormuz - "how this conflict develops and what the future looks like." U.S. president Donald Trump stated in a Truth Social posting that Iran's new leader has asked for a ceasefire from the U.S. "We will reconsider when the Hormuz Strait opens, is free and clear." "We are blasting Iran to oblivion until then," he said. Spot gold dropped more than 11% during March, as the Iran war and higher energy prices stoked inflation fears. This led to a reduction in expectations of looser monetary policies. Bullion is often seen as a safe haven during times of geopolitical unrest and inflation. However, high interest rates can reduce the appeal of this non-yielding material. The end of the conflict may prove to be a double-edged blade (for gold). Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said that a lasting peace accord would eliminate the geopolitical safe haven bid which supported gold prices prior to the conflict. Sycamore said that lower oil prices and an easing of inflation could also revive expectations for Fed cuts in 2026. The ADP's National Employment Report showed that private payrolls in the United States increased steadily during March. Retail sales in the U.S. rose strongly in February. However, the rising gasoline prices caused by the war may have an impact on spending in the coming months. Spot silver dropped 0.5% per ounce to $74.70, platinum fell 0.3% to 1,942.80, and palladium eased by 0.8% to 1,464.88. (Reporting and editing by Paul Simao in Bengaluru, Ashitha Shivaprasad from Bengaluru)
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Argentina delays fuel tax increases in order to reduce the impact of global prices pressures
In a Wednesday decree, the Argentine government announced that it would delay the implementation of tax increases scheduled for liquid fuels, carbon dioxide and other pollutants. This was done in response to the global instability brought about by the U.S./Israeli war on Iran. The decree stated that the move was intended to "support economic growth by sustainable fiscal measures". The decree also stated that the measure would delay the anticipated?tax increase on liquid fuels, carbon dioxide, and other gases for a month, to the end of April. The decree added that this is the second step taken by President Javier Milei in recent days to combat the 'energy price disruptions' caused by the conflict. On?Friday the government relaxed some gasoline quality standards. Local refiners can now blend up to 15 percent ethanol in gasoline to reduce their dependence on petroleum. Analysts warn that rising fuel prices could affect consumer and transport prices. Official data show that Argentina's inflation rate remained stable in February but was still?above expectation due to sharp increases in housing prices, including rent and utility costs. Private analysts had already increased their 'inflation forecasts' for 2026 prior to a surge in crude oil prices late February. Regional Responses Other countries in Latin America are also taking steps to deal with the uncertainty caused by the conflict in the Middle East. Colombia's policymakers raised the benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points on Tuesday to combat inflationary pressures. Chile's central banks minutes show that they briefly considered raising interest rates during their March meeting, whereas Mexico has reached an agreement with gas stations to limit fuel costs, according to the President Claudia Sheinbaum.
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Are central banks selling Treasuries to the public? McGeever
Are central banks selling Treasuries in the midst of the controversial U.S. war in "the Middle East"? It's likely yes, but the situation is complex. The foreign Treasuries in the custody of the New York Federal Reserve have just fallen to their lowest level in 16 years, below $3 trillion. This indicates that foreign central banks are dumping assets at a 'increasingly fast pace. The decline in Fed "custody' holdings, as I wrote last Monday, has been eye-catching. Deutsche Bank strategists estimate the $75 billion drop in the four-week period ending March 19, pointed to $60 billion net selling by central bankers. This would be some of the most aggressive sales ever. The official U.S. Treasury International Capital figures - which are the gold standard data for foreign holdings in U.S. Treasuries – show that central bank sales abroad were minimal last year, but that net purchases were the highest in 13 years in January. What is it then? Selling or shifting? Fed custody data can be a good proxy for foreign central bankers and their treasuries but it is not perfect. The vast majority of the custody holdings are foreign central banks, but they also include quasi-official agencies like sovereign wealth funds or multilateral agencies. Fed custody changes don't always reflect the amount or if central banks are actually buying or selling. Custody holdings, for example, fell by $238 billion in the last year. This suggests central banks are dumping U.S. debt at a breakneck pace. Official TIC data revealed that the net sales by foreign central banks of Treasury notes and bonds last year were only $34 billion. This is less than 1% of the $3.5 trillion in their vault. How can we square this? Changes in exchange rates and bond prices can explain changes in custody data. Some of the "selling", however, can be explained by central banks moving their holdings from U.S. jurisdictions to other parts of their network or non-U.S. jurisdictions. Brad Setser, of the Council on Foreign Relations, has long argued that the recent decline of China's holdings in Treasuries is due to the fact Beijing has funneled vast amounts of foreign assets into its state-owned banks. China's actual holdings are likely to be much higher than what the official figures suggest. Footprints shrinking at nominal highs The official TIC data will be released in May, and we'll know if central banks sold in March. The decline in custody holdings and the weak foreign demand for recent Treasury auctions as well as the falling bond prices suggest that they did. It's still worth remembering that the latest official TIC data, released in mid-March, showed that foreign central bank bought a total of $50.6 billion in Treasuries during January. It was a rare instance where the official demand was higher than private-sector demands. This was also the second largest monthly purchase by central banks in 13 years. In recent years, the private sector has been an important buyer of U.S. In recent years, investors have been a major buyer of?U.S. Treasuries. Foreign ownership of Treasuries is at an all-time high. In the last year, foreign investors owned $9.23 trillion in U.S. government bonds, including $7.78 trillion in bonds and notes and $1.45 billion of bills. All of these are record highs. As a percentage of all Treasuries, foreign ownership has been declining. Morgan Stanley analysts claim that in the fourth quarter last year it dropped to 32%. This is the lowest level since 1997. Central?banks likely sell Treasuries at a margin, not in large?size. It's not yet. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Preliminary data indicates that South Africa's tax revenue increased by 8% in the last fiscal year
Preliminary figures released on Wednesday showed that South Africa collected net tax of 2.01 trillion Rand ($119.73 Billion) in the fiscal period that ended on March 31. This was 8.4% more than the previous year. SARS (South African Revenue Service) reported that the amount collected was 24 billion rands higher than the budgeted amount for 2025. In a statement, the agency stated that the increased collection reflected its focus of compliance initiatives, improved efficiencies?and contribution from the mining sector. The statement said that "these results were achieved despite the challenges of a sluggish economic, geopolitical conflicts, global supply-chain interruptions, and proliferation of the illegal economy." Edward Kieswetter, SARS commissioner, said at a press briefing that the mining sector contributed about 5 billion dollars of the 24.7 billion collected. SARS expects to collect about 2,13 trillion rand for the fiscal year 2026/27, which begins on April 1. This represents a 5.8% rise. SARS stated that South Africa's trade was very minimal with Israel and Iran, but shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz might have a major impact on imports of petroleum products. A presentation showed that more than 70% of the refined petroleum imported in 2025 would come from the Middle East. Oman (26%) and Saudi Arabia (16%) are the countries that send the most refined petroleum to South Africa. The United Arab Emirates (15%) is also a top exporter. Johnstone Makhubu, Deputy Commissioner of Customs in Oman, said that imports were not at risk because the country is located at the exit of the Strait of Hormuz. Nigeria and Angola accounted for more than half of South Africa's crude imports in the past year.
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Retail sales in the US increased by a solid amount in February
Retail sales in the U.S. increased in February, as motor vehicle purchases rebounded. Temperatures also warmed. However, rising gasoline prices due to the war in the Middle East may?cripple spending in upcoming months. The Commerce Department's Census Bureau reported on Wednesday that retail?sales increased 0.6% following a 0.1% decline in January. The economists polled had predicted that retail sales (which are mainly goods and not adjusted for inflation) would rise 0.5% following a 0.2% decline in January. After the government shutdown last year, the?Census Bureau has yet to release data. U.S./Israeli conflict with Iran pushed global oil prices up more than?50%. The national average retail price of gasoline topped $4 a gallon for the first time in over three years. Some worry that rising gasoline prices could reduce the expected boost in consumer spending and overall economic growth from tax reductions. The conflict that lasted a month has also?reduced the household net worth. In March, both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average posted their largest?monthly drop in a very long time. Wealthier households are driving consumer spending. Retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, building supplies, food, and other services, increased by 0.5% in February, after increasing by 0.2% in January. These core retail sales are the closest to the consumer spending component in gross domestic product. Consumer spending declined in the fourth quarter. This helped to slow GDP growth down to 0.7% on an annualized basis. The third quarter saw the economy grow at a rate of 4.4%. (Reporting and editing by Chizu Nomiyama; Lucia Mutikani)
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Copper reaches two-week high amid hopes of a quick end to the Iran war
The copper price rose on Wednesday, reaching its highest level in the past two weeks amid hopes that the Iran war may be nearing an end. Open-outcry official trading on the London Metal Exchange saw benchmark three-month copper rise 0.2% to a metric ton of $12,365 after hitting $12,492.50 - its highest level since March 18. This was copper's fourth consecutive session of gains. However, it is still far below the record high of $14,527.50 that was reached on January 29, 2017. Ole Hansen is the head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank, Copenhagen. "The market wants us to believe we are getting closer to a resolution to this escalation even though economic clouds still hang over?the?markets, which are grey and could worsen," he said. After President Donald Trump announced that the end of the war against Iran may be near, copper prices rose along with other financial markets. The most active copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.5%, to 97.030 yuan (14,093.57) per tonne, after a jump to 97.250 yuan, the highest price since March 19. The metals market also received a boost on Wednesday from data showing that the manufacturing sector of China, the world's largest consumer of metals, expanded for a 4th consecutive month in March. This came after an official survey showed that activity had grown at the fastest rate in a whole year. The physical demand for copper is increasing as evidenced by the higher premiums and declining Chinese inventories. Stocks monitored by SHFE The number of tons in the market fell for a second week in a row to 359 135 tonnes as of March 27, 2019. Hansen said that this indicates that there was pent up demand, and that lower prices we achieved earlier in the month did prompt some buying. A weaker dollar also helped metals gain. Dollar, which makes commodities backed by greenbacks more affordable to investors who use other currencies. LME Aluminium initially dropped as investors believed that the supply problems from smelters in the Gulf would be resolved if war ended. Prices jumped 1.6% to $3,523 per ton in official activity after a consultant said that one major smelter ceased operations and another was only operating at 30%. Other metals include LME Zinc, which rose 0.4% to $3240 per ton. Lead gained 1.3%, nickel grew 0.7%, and tin increased 2.1%, to $47745.
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Dollar drops as gold nears 2-week-high amid hopes of an end to the Iran war
On Wednesday, gold was near a two-week-high - after a month that saw its largest monthly loss for nearly 17 years. The U.S. Dollar and Treasury yields fell on signs of a de-escalation of the war against Iran. Gold spot was up 1.8% to $4,755.50 an ounce at 1159 GMT after rising by 2% earlier, reaching its highest level since the 19th of March. U.S. gold futures for delivery in April rose 2.3% to $4.783.50. Donald Trump, the U.S. president and Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State of the United States have both said that the end of war against Iran is near. This could mean direct talks with Tehran or a winding-down of the conflict without a deal. Trump will give an update on Iran at 9pm EDT on Tuesday (0100 GMT Thursday). "We have seen a positive reaction to another Donald Trump statement... The U.S. Dollar Index has weakened, and the euro is stronger against the dollar. Futures for bonds and interest rate cuts are also up, which indicates that the opportunity cost to hold gold has decreased," said Quantitative commodity Research analyst Peter Fertig. Gold priced in greenbacks is now less expensive for those who hold other currencies. Benchmark yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes fell to a two-week low. Gold prices fell by more than 11% during March, the steepest monthly drop since October 2008. The surge in oil prices has fueled inflation concerns. Gold is often used to hedge inflation and geopolitical risk, but expectations of a hawkish response from the monetary authorities have made non-yielding gold 'less attractive' among investors. Fertig said that the market has shifted its narrative on gold as a safe-haven at times. If it's more about inflation, then both gold and equities could suffer because the markets fear central banks will be forced to halt interest rates in the Fed case. Palladium rose 0.6% to $1,485.45, while platinum rose 1.4% to $1976.82. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun Koyyur)
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Fed's Barkin says households and firms still view oil shocks through a "short term lens"
Tom Barkin, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank president, said that businesses continue to believe high oil prices are only a temporary disruption. There is little evidence yet to suggest they have caused consumers to cut back on their spending or changed public expectations of inflation in an alarming way. Barkin said on Tuesday that he had a "short-term" view of the situation based on his weekly credit card spending data and his conversations with executives on pricing, investments and other topics. "Gas expenditure is up, but other spending looks healthy," said Barkin. Barkin is not voting on interest rate policy for this year. If you think that this will only last for a few weeks, then an additional $10 to $15 won't make a big difference in your lifestyle. If you believe this will last a long period of time, I think that you are more likely to experience a pullback. Fed officials and central banks worldwide have responded to the U.S. Airstrikes on Iran and the subsequent surge in global oil price with equal parts patience and concern. They are concerned that sustained high energy costs could increase inflation, which they are trying to contain. And they're also patient against overreacting, until it's clear how long this conflict will last and what impact the prices may be. At its latest meeting, the Fed held the interest rate policy steady at the current range of 3.50% - 3.75%. Policymakers are still projecting that a quarter point rate reduction will be made by the end the year. The situation is uncertain. The potential for a quick change was evident this week, when Brent crude oil, the benchmark, briefly reached $119 per barrel, which is more than 70% above the price before the U.S. began bombing. It then dropped to $102 per barrel after President Donald Trump said that the U.S. war campaign could be coming to an end. He will address the nation on Wednesday night. According to AAA, gas prices jumped on Wednesday, reaching a national median of $4.06 - the highest level since summer 2022 when a combination?of supply shocks from the pandemic era and strong consumer demand caused the 'worst inflation surge in 40 years. Fed officials want to avoid a repeat. The oil boom prompted some investors to believe that the Fed will begin raising interest rates in this year, rather than resuming rate reductions as was expected. Barkin said that there are many scenarios that can push the Fed either way at this time, but he believes that a rise of inflation expectations would be the most likely to cause a rate hike. He said that the hike would be based on inflation expectations finally moving. "I do not have the impression that they are breaking out at this stage." In contrast, the case for rate cuts would be either a rapid return of inflation to the Fed's target of 2% from a point or two above it now, OR a weakening job market which required support through rate reductions. Prices are lower for goods than services The employment report due on Friday will be closely watched to determine if February's job losses were an anomaly, or a sign that weakness was developing. In the absence of this, the Fed could be 'left on hold', and inflation is expected to only make a halting advance towards the central banks target in 2018. This is due to the successive price shocks that Trump has brought about, starting with the tariffs, then continuing with the oil. Barkin, in his discussions with executives, said he has seen a growing split between the goods sector where retailers believe their pricing power is being?limited by consumers' pushback, and the services sector where firms catering to more affluent households feel freer to increase prices. He said that after talking to a retailer who focuses on customers with low-to-moderate incomes, "I got the feeling that consumers were exhausted by price hikes." "They are pushing back." "I walked out with a lens that 1%-2% (of price hikes) would be about the amount they could handle." He said that the?vulnerability was more on the service side, and in particular selling to high-end clients. Barkin stated that "goods suppliers have been through this drill many times, trying to pass along tariffs and oil shock costs. They just feel they don't have much left," Barkin. "I do not have the same feeling about services." Barkin believes that the Fed will likely take a longer time to reach its inflation target. This is reflected in the market's expectations, which no longer include rate hikes. "I see a gradual path, not a quick path. It's just my instinct. Reporting by Howard Schneider, Editing by Dan Burns & Chizu Nomiyama
MORNING BID AMERICAS-Taking stock after Fed radiance, Japan/China hold
A take a look at the day ahead in U.S. and international markets from Mike Dolan After a roaring Thursday that saw Wall Street stocks lap up deep Federal Reserve alleviating into a still-healthy economy, there's a modest step back today and an eye on other main banks choosing to stand pat in the meantime.
Entering various directions to each other policy-wise, reserve banks in Japan and China select to hold the line on their rates of interest on Friday - the latter slightly surprisingly given the alarming deceleration of its economy.
The People's Bank of China suddenly left lending rates the same at regular monthly mendings, confounding projections after the outsize 50 basis point Fed cut on Wednesday. Practically 70% of market individuals surveyed earlier in the week had actually seen a cut.
Whether that's just a hold-up to synch up with more comprehensive stimulus plans later on is a moot point, but - perhaps unhelpfully for China - it's lifted the overseas yuan to a new 16-month high.
Less surprisingly, the Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged on Friday too - holding back from more tightening in the meantime even as it updated its financial evaluation and core customer inflation ticked up to 2.8% in August as expected.
With BOJ officials relatively unrushed in further ' normalisation' of ultra-low rates, the yen weakened back to near 144 per dollar.
In Europe on Thursday, the Bank of England - with one eye on the new Labour federal government's very first spending plan next month - likewise held back from making its 2nd rate cut of the year. And that lifted sterling to its best levels because March 2022.
The UK backdrop to both the BoE choice and the spending plan was combined - with falling consumer self-confidence at a six-month low, although rising August retail sales beat projections. The financial image darkened, nevertheless, with news of larger public borrowing last month than, anticipated and government financial obligation at 100%. of GDP for the first time since equivalent records started 31. years earlier.
Back on Wall Street, it was still mainly a case of 'what's. not to like?' for investors.
The huge Fed cut along with news of falling weekly jobless. puts the 'soft landing' firmly on track and all stock indexes. rose on Thursday - with new record highs for the S&P 500. and the equal-weighted version of the index that. adjusts for the handful of megacap leaders.
Both the tech-heavy Nasdaq and little cap Russell. 2000 struck their finest levels considering that July.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are now both up 20% for the year so. far. The VIX volatility gauge subsided under 17 and below. long-lasting averages.
Fed futures, which price a little more alleviating over the. rest of this year than the additional 50bps indicated by. the reserve bank, now see 200bps of cuts over the coming 12. months, to settle at 2.9% - where the Fed has suggested its. long-lasting 'neutral' rate now lies.
U.S. Treasuries seem comfy with that - with 2-year. Treasury yields hovering near 2-year lows under 3.6%. and the newly positive 2-to-10 year yield curve gap above 10bps. for the first time in more than 2 years.
Regarding whether the Fed is relieving excessive, inflation. expectations have ticked up a bit but remain simply. above the Fed's 2% target. Crude oil rates have edged. higher this week, not least due to renewed Middle East stress,. however rolling year-on-year oil cost losses have now been running. at more than 20% for 2 weeks strong.
With attention on the other central banks, the dollar index. firmed up a little from the year's lows.
Stock futures were off a touch from brand-new records. before Friday's bell.
The focus now most likely moves to a raft of Fed authorities on. the stump over the coming week - and they may shine further. light into the thinking around today's big rate cut.
Quarter-end likewise emerges and, obviously, the. November election project starts to warm up.
Latest polling has the two primary governmental candidates. roughly connected nationally, though Democrat Kamala Harris remains. slight favourite in wagering markets.
Key advancements that must offer more instructions to U.S. markets later Friday:. * Euro zone September consumer confidence; Canada August. manufacturer rates. * Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker speaks;. European Reserve Bank President Christine Lagarde and. International Monetary Fund Handling Director Kristalina. Georgieva speak in Washington; Bank of Canada Guv Tiff. Macklem speaks; Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann and. BoE Executive Director David Bailey speak
(source: Reuters)