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MORNING BID AMERICAS-Market lull as PPI eyed, Nikkei goes back to base

A take a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Just Like Wall Street's fast recovery on Friday, Japanese stocks finished their week-long, hair-raising big salami on Tuesday as Tokyo markets returned from holiday, wiped out the rest of recently's losses and nudged the yen lower.

The 3.5% surge in the Nikkei 225 - a source of much of last week's wild volatility - brought it back above the close on Friday Aug 2.

The post-mortems now get underway. Japan's parliament plans an unique session on Aug. 23 to talk about the Bank of Japan's. decision last month to raise rates of interest for the 2nd time. and signify more to come.

However the restored calm on world markets appeared in. Monday's modest moves in U.S. trading too. The VIX 'fear index'. is now back near its 30-year mean just under 20 -. levels likely more sustainable than the pressure cooker readings. up until now this year and ones which must work versus the. reflating of the sort of speculative bubbles that rupture last. week.

Attention now shifts back to the U.S. inflation picture and. whether this week's consumer and producer price updates offer a. thumbs-up to the Fed to start relieving next month.

The PPI is first out of the traps today, with suppressed 0.2%. monthly gains expected for both headline and core procedures and a. retreat in annual heading factory gate inflation to just 2.3%. As constantly, essential components of the PPI basket that feed directly. to the Fed's favored PCE gauge - health care, air travels and fund. management costs - will be watched carefully.

However whatever the outcome, the Fed will be fairly pleased. that it appears to have actually anchored inflation expectations again. and this alone might suffice to permit it to start cutting rates. in September.

U.S. customers' medium-term inflation expectations relieved. significantly in July, with the New York Fed's month-to-month home. study showing the median three-year view dropping 0.6. percentage point to 2.3% - the lowest reading in the 11 year. history of the survey.

Monetary markets tend to agree, with 10-year 'breakeven'. inflation readings from inflation-protected Treasuries. hovering just above 2.1% after hitting 3-1/2 year. lows near 2% recently.

A routine fly in the ointment could be energy costs, with. crude prices livening up to three-week highs just under. $ 80 per barrel amid nervousness in the Middle East about. possible Iranian retaliation.

However the relocation in crude is modest so far in context, with the. year-on-year oil cost still unfavorable to the tune of more than. 3%.

The outcome ahead of today's bell is that Treasury yields. , the dollar index and U.S. stock futures. are all partially greater.

Home Depot tops the profits calendar, in a week that sees. huge retailers upgrade together with the July retail sales report.

Overseas, sterling rose as Britain's joblessness. rate suddenly fell in June. But the Bank of England will. likely be encouraged by accompanying numbers that revealed routine. wage growth receding to its lowest in 2 years.

The euro was a touch lower too after Germany's ZEW. belief index for August fell a lot more than forecast - most likely. hampered by the market volatility last week.

In China, economic and credit worries continued.

Chinese banks extended 260 billion yuan ($ 36.26 billion) in. new yuan loans in July, below the previous month and. undershooting analysts' forecasts - highlighting weak demand as. a prolonged residential or commercial property recession and job insecurity drag on. service and customer confidence.

Key developments that ought to offer more instructions to U.S. markets in the future Tuesday:. * US NFIB July small company survey, July producer rate index. * Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic speaks. * US corporate incomes: Home Depot, XP, Telesat, Kimball. Electronic devices and so on

(source: Reuters)