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MORNING quote AMERICAS-Geopolitics, oil and payrolls produce a hectic day

A take a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Alun John.

It is an uncommon start to a very first Friday of the month as, with Brent petroleum above $90 a barrel and driving a risk-off tone in markets around the world, financiers are not entirely thinking about U.S. non-farm payrolls.

Let's not overemphasize it. They still are believing a lot about the always-crucial tasks data, due at 0830 ET (1330 GMT), but after all 3 primary U.S. stock indexes fell by over 1% on Thursday, while Treasuries rallied, it is not the only thing on their minds.

Overnight chin-stroking has pinned the blame for the risk-off tone on Brent crude, which settled at over $90 dollars a barrel on Thursday for the very first time since October on developments in the Middle East. It is holding above that level in the European early morning.

Israel is bracing for the possibility of a retaliatory attack for Monday's assumed Israeli air campaign on an Iranian embassy. Israel has actually not declared duty for the attack on Iran's embassy compound in Syria, which killed high-ranking Iranian military workers.

Asian and European shares both traded around 1% lower on Friday. S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones futures are all up about 0.2% suggesting a more stable open, though the S&P 500 is still down 2% on the week, which, if sustained, would be its most significant drop because October.

Also taking some blame for Thursday's fall were hawkish remarks from policymakers including Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari who said that at the Fed's conference last month he penciled in 2 rates of interest cuts this year however if inflation continues to stall, none might be needed by year end.

High oil prices won't assist the inflation fight.

Nevertheless, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped almost 5 basis points on the day, as the geopolitical jitters sent out investors to the safe-haven asset.

PAYROLLS

And then there are non-farm payrolls, which are expected to show U.S. tasks growth slowed moderately in March to 200,000 new tasks, while wage gains stayed raised.

In addition to March's number, financiers are also bewaring for modifications to previous month's information, as past modifications have been significant - Treasury yields fell a month back after February's tasks report, partially since it modified down January's. stonking figure of 353,000 tasks to 229,000.

Friday's information is likewise expected to reveal the joblessness rate. staying listed below 4% for 26 straight months, the longest such. stretch given that the late 1960s.

The data will be very important as it comes at a time when. investors getting a bit jittery about whether the Federal. Reserve will cut rates in June.

We've seen this movie before, as both March and May were. as soon as viewed as the Fed's start date. Friday's information and next week's. U.S. CPI will assist decide whether June will go the very same way.

This might cause some ructions in markets, particularly in. Japan where authorities' risks to intervene straight in. currency markets to prop up the weak yen have actually left the dollar. unable to break previous the 152-yen level, which traders see as. something of a line in the sand.

The danger is that today's U.S. payrolls report pushes. USD/JPY dramatically higher which in turn sets off a real. intervention from Japan's Ministry of Financing, said currency. analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in a note.

Key advancements that ought to supply more direction to U.S. markets later Friday:

* U.S. March non-farm payrolls

* Canada March tasks information

(source: Reuters)