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MORNING BID EUROPE-Markets brace for inflation trifecta

A take a look at the day ahead in European and international markets from Wayne Cole

It's all about inflation today with markets pricing in upside run the risk of for the core U.S. reading, and a drawback possibility for European and Japanese consumer rates.

The Federal Reserve's favoured core procedure of individual intake expenditures (PCE) costs is anticipated to rise 0.4%,. with a danger of 0.5% m/m, when it wasn't that long earlier markets. had actually been wishing for a nice tame 0.2% boost.

A few of this is the January impact which sees costs for. lots of items and services rise at the start of the year, especially. for healthcare. The bull run on Wall Street will also play a. part by rising the expense of portfolio management.

Indeed, the core services ex-housing PCE measure, which Fed. members like to reference, could well rise 0.6% m/m for the. greatest gain considering that December 2021.

The six-month annualised speed might thus climb to around. 2.5%, after 2 months of running simply below 2%, which is a. significant factor the market has actually pressed out the anticipated timing of. the first Fed rate cut to June from May.

There are at least 10 Fed speakers out today, including. the influential New York Fed chief John Williams, while Chair. Powell gives his Senate testimony on March 7.

The headline CPI for the European Union on Friday is seen. slowing to 2.5% from 2.8%, with the core at 2.9% versus 3.3%. That will likely lead the ECB to decrease its inflation. projections at its March conference, although the marketplace sees practically. no chance of a rate cut then. Futures likelihood is around. one-in-three for an April reducing, and nearly completely priced for. June.

Inflation reports from Germany, France and Spain out on. Thursday will serve as an appetiser for the primary banquet.

Japan's CPI is out on Tuesday and is forecast to slow to an. yearly 1.8%, from 2.3% in December, although the core core. step is seen at 3.3% and still above the Bank of Japan's 2%. target.

Such a slowdown in inflation would appear to refute a. policy tightening up, yet BOJ authorities have been putting more. weight on increasing earnings, leading markets to wager it will lift. rates to zero in March or April from the current -0.1%.

The Treasury market also faces a difficult week of new supply. with $127 billion of two- and five-year notes due later. Monday, and another $42 billion in seven-year paper due on. Tuesday.

And there is a non-trivial danger some U.S. federal government. agencies could be closed down if Congress can not settle on a. borrowing extension by Friday.

Friday brings the release of the February China PMI, where. analysts are tipping a slight enhancement to 49.5, while the. U.S. ISM survey of manufacturing is also anticipated to rise to. 49.5.

Key advancements that might influence markets on Monday:

- UK CBI Distributive Trades for Feb

- Bank of England Deputy Guv Sarah Breeden and. primary economic expert Huw Tablet speak

- Participation by ECB president Christine Lagarde in. plenary argument on the ECB Yearly Report

- Fed Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on. the economic and financial policy outlook

(source: Reuters)