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Gold reaches $4,100 on the back of trade tensions and rate-cut optimism

On Monday, gold broke through $4100 per ounce, a new record, on renewed U.S. China trade tensions, and on expectations of U.S. rate cuts. Silver also reached a record high.

As of 12:17 pm, spot gold had risen 2.4%, to $4,114.31 an ounce. After hitting a new record of $4,116.77 at 1617 GMT ET (1617 GMT), gold prices have risen 2.4% to $4114.31 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery rose by 3.3% to $4133.90.

Gold prices have risen 56% in the past year, and last week they reached the $4,000 mark for the first. This is due to factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, economic concerns, and expectations of U.S. rate cuts. Central bank purchases are also a major factor.

Gold could continue to rise. "We could see prices above $5,000 by 2026," said Phillip Streible. Chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.

Streible said that the structural support of the market is provided by the steady central bank purchases, the firm ETF inflows as well as the U.S. China trade tensions. Streible added that on the geopolitical side, U.S. president Donald Trump reignited the trade tensions between China and the United States last Friday, ending a tense truce.

While traders price in a 97% chance of a Federal Reserve rate reduction in October, and a 100% probability for December. Gold is a non-yielding investment that tends to perform well in environments with low interest rates. Bank of America analysts and Societe Generale expect gold to hit $5,000 by 2026. Standard Chartered's forecast has been raised to $4,488 on average next year.

Standard Chartered Bank's global head of commodities research, Suki Cooper said: "This rally is strong, but a short-term correction will be better for a long-term trend."

Spot silver increased 3.1% to $51.82, reaching a record high earlier in the session of $52.07. This was boosted by the same factors that supported gold and tightness on the spot market.

Technical indicators indicate that both gold and silver are overbought. The relative strength index (RSI), which measures the strength of the relationship between two assets, is 80 for gold.

Palladium rose 6.5%, to $1496.52. Platinum gained 5%, to $1666. Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru, Pablo Sinha in Mumbai and Sherin-Elizabeth Varghese; Additional reporting and editing by Joe Bavier & Alexander Smith.

(source: Reuters)