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Stocks extend slide as traders take an axe to rate bets

Global stocks fell on Wednesday, while the dollar and Treasury yields stayed strong, as traders pared back expectations for the rate and scale of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.

The latest shift in rate expectations followed an advantage surprise in U.S. inflation on Tuesday that revealed the customer cost index (CPI) rose 3.1% on an annual basis, above forecasts for a 2.9% boost.

The data has prompted traders to slash their bets on where U.S. rates will go this year. Futures now indicate about 90 basis points worth of cuts from the Fed by December, roughly four quarter-point drops, compared to 110 bps prior to the data release and 160 bps at the end of 2023.

With the prospect of a high drop in interest rates ebbing, investors kept the pressure on worldwide stocks, which had rallied strongly towards the end of in 2015 on aggressive bets for rate cuts by significant reserve banks worldwide in 2024.

The MSCI All-World index, which hit two-year highs on Monday, was down 0.1%, following a drop on Wall Street over night that pulled the S&P 500 back below 5,000 points. U.S. futures were up 0.2-0.3%.

Worryingly for financiers, the CPI report revealed an unexpected pickup in stickier components, such as service-sector inflation and shelter, assisted drive the overall boost.

When you get a jump like this, and the year-on-year figures truly show this rather than the monthly ones, that's a shock because it simply shows that it's not all plain cruising and we may get more boosts in inflation, Trade Country senior market analyst David Morrison stated.

We ought to be shocked by the dive in inflation, since I. do not think anyone was considering that. It was more how. slowly do we come down towards 2% and this resembles kicking the. ladder away a bit, he said.

In Europe, the STOXX edged up 0.1%, as a flurry of. more powerful earnings improved the local index.

Even Japan's Nikkei, which struck its greatest in 34. years on Tuesday, was not spared from the beating and fell 0.7%.

The recent rally in the Nikkei has been greased by a moving. yen, which compromised past the key 150 per dollar level. for the very first time this year on Tuesday.

The yen last stood at 150.50 per dollar. The 150 level has. been seen in the past as a potential catalyst for intervention. by Japanese monetary authorities. It was simply past this level. that they stepped in to support the yen in late 2022.

If they do attempt intervention, I think it'll be near ... the. ( dollar/yen) high from October 2022 and the high we saw in. mid-November, said Tony Sycamore, a market expert at IG.

Japan's top currency authorities alerted on Wednesday against. what they referred to as speculative and rapid yen moves. overnight.

HIGHER FOR LONGER

Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries struck their highest in. over two months following Tuesday's inflation report, which offered. the dollar a burst of strength.

By Wednesday, the benchmark 10-year yield was. down 2.5 bps at 4.2907%, below a session peak of 4.332%.

With yields holding firm, the dollar clawed into favorable. territory versus a basket of currencies to 104.90,. having actually hit its greatest since November on Tuesday.

The attendant, broad-based U.S. dollar surge undoubtedly. shows (the) corresponding surge in U.S. Treasury yields,. stated Vishnu Varathan, chief economic expert for Asia ex-Japan at. Mizuho Bank.

Sterling fell 0.3% to $1.2552, after UK information showed. inflation did not pick up as anticipated last month.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin hovered around the. $ 50,000 level, while ether rose 1.8% to 2,681.

Oil prices were flat, paring a few of Tuesday's gains as. geopolitical tensions stuck around in the Middle East and eastern. Europe.

U.S. crude traded at $77.85, while Brent futures. were consistent at $82.77.

Gold, meanwhile, fell 0.2% to $1,989 an ounce.

(source: Reuters)