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The yen is on the market's radar with the 'Takaichi Trade', a turbo-charged morning bid in Europe.
Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the day will bring for the European and Global markets. And then we're back to screen-gazing, as the yen edged towards?160 a dollar, fueling intervention concerns, as the prospect a snap election in Japan next month turbocharges so-called "Takaichi trading". Investors are selling the Japanese government bonds and the yen because they fear low interest rates and additional stimulus for an economy that has one of the largest debt burdens of any developed country. After local media reported that Prime Minister Takaichi may call for general elections in February, the Nikkei index soared to 54,000 for the first-time on Wednesday. The yen is at its lowest level against the dollar since July 20,24. Traders are cautious about authorities intervening, even though it could be difficult just before an election. The market is still vigilant, because a snap election could lead to Japan's own version of?U.S. Fiscal cliff. Silver and gold continue to rise in value as they reach new peaks, as geopolitical tensions drive safe-haven flows. Dollar has struggled with weak U.S. data and concerns about the Federal Reserve. The data on Tuesday revealed that U.S. inflation is low, which means rate cuts are still possible in 2026. However, traders don't expect the Fed will move before Jerome Powell’s term ends in may. Investors say that the escalating dispute between Powell and U.S. president Donald Trump has reinforced the argument for diversification outside the United States. The?U.S. The?U.S. Supreme Court will likely issue a ruling or two on Wednesday. This could include litigation regarding the legality Trump's tariffs. The court will release its rulings around 10 a.m. ET (1500 GMT). The court doesn't announce in advance the decisions it will make. Later?inthe day, traders will be looking for comments from Citigroup and Bank of America on Trump's proposed 10% credit card interest rate cap. JPMorgan Chase said that the proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates would hurt consumers and weigh on the market. The bank reported a quarterly profit on Tuesday that was higher than analysts' expectations. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Wednesday. Bank earnings and possible SCOTUS decision on U.S. Tariffs
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Oil pauses gains as Venezuela shipments resume, but Iran concerns loom
The oil market fell after four consecutive days of gains on Wednesday, as Venezuela resumed exports. Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories and products rose. However there were fears that Iranian supplies would be disrupted due to deadly civil unrest. Brent futures fell 20 cents or 0.3% to $65.27 per barrel by 0525 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was down 23 cents or 0.4% at $60.92 per barrel. Suvro Sarkar is an energy analyst with DBS Bank. He said that oil prices had already factored in a geopolitical premium in recent days, due to the rising tensions in Iran and drone attacks on the Black Sea. He said that unless we see further escalation, and the possibility of disruptions in oil flows, the market may consolidate and wait for next steps in the complex world order. He also said that the American Petroleum Institute's (API) report of large crude and products builds in the U.S. late on Tuesday may be contributing to the price rise. API, citing market sources, reported that crude stocks in the U.S. - the world's largest oil consumer - rose by 5,23 million barrels during the week ending January 9. Gasoline stocks rose by?8.23m barrels while distillate stockpiles rose by 4.34m barrels compared to a week ago. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its stockpile data later on Wednesday. A poll conducted on Tuesday showed that U.S. crude stockpiles are expected to have decreased last week while gasoline and distillate stocks likely increased. Three sources reported that Venezuela, an OPEC member, has also begun reversing the oil production cuts it had made as a result of the U.S. embargo. Two supertankers left Venezuelan waters Monday, each carrying 1.8 million barrels of crude oil. This could be the first shipment of a 50-million barrel supply deal between Caracas & Washington in order to restart exports in the wake the capture by the U.S. of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. Despite this, the increasing?protests of Iran have raised concerns about supply disruptions. Iran is the fourth largest OPEC producer. U.S. president Donald Trump urged Iranians on Tuesday to continue protesting, and said that?help is on its way' without specifying exactly what this meant. Citi analysts raised their forecast for Brent oil over the next three months to $70 per barrel. Citi analysts note that the protests so far have not reached the main Iranian oil-producing areas, which limits the actual effect on supply. They said that the current risks were geared toward frictions in logistics and politics, rather than outages. This would keep the impact on Iranian crude exports and supply contained. (Reporting from Katya Glubkova and Emily Chow, in Tokyo; editing by Christian Schmollinger).
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China's oil imports in 2025 and December inflows are both at record levels
China's crude imports increased 17% in December compared to a year earlier, and total imports for 2025 will rise 4.4%. The daily volumes of crude oil imported in December 2025 and throughout the year will be at all-time records. According to the General Administration of Customs, the world's biggest crude importer imported 55.97 millions metric tons of petroleum in December. This is equivalent to 13,18 million barrels of oil per day. The increase was 10% compared to 50.89 in November. The data shows that China will import 557.73 millions tons of crude oil by 2025 or 11,55?million barrels per day, an increase of 4.4% over the previous year. According to Kpler, an independent consultancy, the increase in crude oil imports is due to a stronger crude?throughput, and a firmer demand for restocking. The consultancy said that China's oil output is expected to increase by 0.7% in 2025. According to Rystad Energy, the average stockbuild in 2025 will be 430,000 bpd. This is up from 84,000 in 2024. Half of this growth is due to new storage capacity by both state-owned companies and independent ones. Ye Lin, vice-president at Rystad energy, said that "energy security is the main?driver" of China's stockpiling in light of rising geopolitical tensions. Low oil prices are also important, since the average crude price in China is $10 per barrel less than it was in 2024 due to sanctions. Kpler, and the ship-tracking company Vortexa, both estimated that seaborne crude imports reached a record high of 12 million barrels per day in December. Lower oil prices encouraged refiners to increase purchases, while strategic-petroleum-reserve restocking may also have played a role, said Muyu Xu, an analyst at Kpler. Xu said that independent refiners had been able to buy more spot cargoes since receiving their import quota allocations for November. Kpler, Vortexa and Kpler said that onshore crude inventories increased by 35 million barrels during December. Kpler also added that China’s?onshore oil inventories hit a record of 1.206 billion in late December or early January. Vortexa reported that more than 12 million barrels of new stock were built in December, mostly at state-owned facilities connected to Sinopec Maoming refinery and PetroChina Jieyang, Vortexa stated. In Shandong, nearly 15 million barrels were accumulated. Vortexa said that this was in line with the record-high sanctioned oil imports to Shandong between November and December. As a result of increased Russian supplies, some Iranian barrels were replaced by Russian oil in December. This was reported by Emma Li, a Vortexa analyst. China's imports of natural gas, including pipeline gas as well as liquefied gas (LNG), jumped 16.3% in December compared to a year ago. They now total 13.45 million tonnes. Customs data show that gas imports for 2025 will total 127.87 millions tons, down by 2.8% compared to a year ago.
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China imports iron ore and steel at record levels
Iron ore futures rose on Wednesday as China reported record steel exports and its highest-ever monthly imports. As of 0326 GMT, the most-traded contract for May iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was up 0.49% at 824.5 Yuan ($118.17). The benchmark iron ore for February on the Singapore Exchange rose 0.29% to $108.65 per?ton. Data from the General Administration of Customs revealed that China's steel imports reached a monthly record high in December, fueled by front-loading, prompted?by Beijing’s announcement of requiring export licenses for shipments starting 2026. Imports of iron ore?also reached a record in December, as well as last season,?as mills were encouraged to order more cargoes by low inventories and better steel margins. Atilla Winnel, Navigate Commodities' managing director, said that the mills had begun to replenish their steel stocks ahead of Chinese New Year. He said that such bullish conditions would continue until the Lunar New Year. Analysts said that high iron ore costs, combined with shrinking margins at steel mills, could cause buyers to delay restocking their stock until there is a correction. Coking coal and coke both fell by 0.66% and 0.2% respectively. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have gained ground. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a rise in steel benchmarks. ($1 = 6.9771 yuan) (Reporting by Ruth Chai; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
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Silver cracks $90 on Fed rate-cut bets. Gold nears record highs.
Silver surpassed the $90 mark for the first time, and gold climbed to a near record high. Weaker-than-expected U.S. readings of inflation fueled bets that interest rates will soon drop amid geopolitical uncertainties. As of 0406 GMT the spot gold price rose by 0.9%, to $4,627.95 an ounce, after hitting a record $4,634.33 per ounce on Tuesday. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery? rose 0.8% to $4635.60. Spot silver rose 4.6% to $90.95 per ounce, after breaking $90 for first time. Brian Lan, GoldSilver's Central managing director, said that the data was positive. The inflation rate and unemployment rate in the U.S. were both lower. These are the factors which have driven precious metals higher. Lan said that silver's next major milestone is $100 and high percentage gains of two-digits are expected this year. The U.S. Consumer Price Index core rose by 0.2% on a month-to-month basis and 2.6% annually in December. This was below analysts' expectations for 0.3% and 2.7% increases, respectively. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, welcomed the inflation numbers and reiterated his call for Jerome Powell, the U.S. Federal Reserve?chair to reduce interest rates "meaningfully." Powell was backed by the top Wall Street bankers and global central bankers on?Tuesday, after former Fed?chiefs condemned Trump's decision to probe him. Analysts claim that concerns about Fed independence and the trust in U.S. asset prices contributed to demand for yellow metal as a safe haven. Investors anticipate two rate cuts of 25 basis points this year. The earliest is expected to be in June. In a low interest rate environment, and in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, non-yielding investments tend to perform well. Trump, meanwhile, urged Iranians protesters to continue, saying that 'help will be on its way' as Iran witnessed its largest demonstrations in many years. Other than that, the spot price of platinum rose 4.7%, to $2,432.80 an ounce. This is a new high for a week. It hit a record $2,478.50/oz on December 29. Palladium rose 3.7% to $1,910.08 an ounce. (Reporting and editing by Ishaan arora, Rashmi aich)
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'Are you dead?' Chinese app for singles goes viral
The app "Are You Dead" which targets lone-living people in China has become a viral hit. Its popularity and comments on social media have been widespread, leading the company to introduce a subscription charge and change the name of its product for a wider audience. Sileme is the Chinese name for "Are You Dead?" The app is called "Are you dead?" in English. It was created to be a "lightweight safety tool" for those who live alone, whether they are students, officers, or anyone else. App requires a single emergency contact and will send automatic notifications to the user if they have not checked into the app in a period of?consecutive?days. The Global Times reported that China could have as many as 200 million single-person households. Sileme announced on Tuesday, via its official Weibo account, that it will soon launch a new version of its global brand name Demumu. The app is called Demumu and is number two on Apple's chart of paid apps. It was at the top earlier this week. "Thanks for all the support from netizens. "We were initially a small unknown team, cofounded and operated by three born after 1994," said Sileme. The company announced on Sunday it will launch a payment scheme of eight yuan ($1.15) to cover rising costs. Demumu, an app available on Apple's App Store, already charged HK$8 for the download. Sileme's name was suggested by some social media users, such as Weibo. Others suggested "Are You Alive", "Are You Online" or "Are?You There." One user said that it was helpful for safety reasons. It will help us singles feel more comfortable in our daily lives. Reporting by Farah Masters; editing by Michael Perry.
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China's rare earth exports to 2025 are at their highest level since 2014, despite restrictions
China's rare-earth?exports reached their highest level in at least 2014 even though Beijing started?restricting?shipments of various medium to heavy elements starting April. Data from the General Administration of Customs revealed that the world's largest producer shipped out a total of 62.585 metric tons of this group of 17 components used in consumer electronics, automobiles, and defence equipments, with an increase of 12.9% annually. In April, China added magnets and seven heavy and medium rare earth elements to its export control list as a response to hefty U.S. duties. This led?to an abrupt drop in magnet exports in April & May. The shipments have gradually recovered since June, thanks to the agreements that were reached between China, the United States and Europe. Outbound shipments in December fell by 20% compared to the previous month, falling to 4,392 tonnes, as the overseas purchasing appetite declined following the build-up of stocks before the Christmas break. However, the December volume was 32% higher than the 3,326 tonnes in 2024. An analyst who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media said that many overseas buyers had booked more 'volumes' in November to prepare for the holiday last month. Exports in November increased by 26.5% compared to October. Reporting by Amy Lv & Lewis Jackson, Editing by Himani & Shri Navaratnam
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Copper reaches a record high, as concerns over supply outweigh dollar strength
The copper price rose to a record high on Wednesday as supply concerns overshadowed a stronger dollar. Meanwhile, tin prices also reached a record high due to speculative purchases amid a growing geopolitical unrest. After hitting a record high of 105,650 Yuan per metric tonne earlier in the morning, the most-traded contract for copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange ended the morning session 1.68% higher, at 104970 yuan. Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.55% to $13,367.5 a ton at?0340 GMT. This is a slight retreat from a record high of $13,400 per ton. Copper's resiliency in price is attributed to disruptions at the mines, concerns about deficits for this year and a?flow of copper into the U.S. before?potential tariffs which are reducing supply elsewhere. On Tuesday, U.S. president Donald Trump urged Iranians protesters to continue their protests and said that help was on its way. Analysts say that this has fueled concerns about geopolitical risk, which is why some investors are rushing to commodities like copper and tin with solid fundamentals. A stronger dollar has capped the price increases. It makes goods priced in greenbacks more expensive for buyers who use other currencies. The tin price in both the Shanghai and London stock exchanges has reached record levels. SHFE tin soared up to 8%, hitting the upper limit of 413 170 yuan. LME tin rose more than 5% at $52,495. SHFE aluminium increased by 1.12%. Nickel advanced by 1.47%. Lead rose 0.2%. Zinc increased 1.05%. Aluminium, nickel, and lead all rose in price on the LME. Zinc also rose by 1.22%.
China's steel imports and exports are at record levels
China's steel imports reached a monthly record high in December. This was largely due to the front-loading of shipments, which was prompted by Beijing's announcement that export licenses would be required for shipments starting 2026.
Data from the General Administration of Customs in the Philippines showed that the world's largest steel producer exported 11.3 million tons of'metal' used in construction and manufacturing during the month of December, which was the highest amount ever for a month.
Beijing plans to implement a license system to regulate steel exports in 2026, after robust shipments sparked a protectionist backlash around the world.
Analysts said that some exporters have rushed to increase shipments in anticipation of the new export license requirement.
China's property market woes persist despite surprisingly high steel exports.
According to a state-backed?research?agency, China's steel?demand is expected to decline by 1% in this?year following a 5.4% annual drop in 2025.
Steel exports in the entire year increased by 7.5% compared to the previous year, reaching a record high of 119.02 millions tons. This is despite the fact that more countries are imposing trade barriers against Chinese steel because they claim it has hurt domestic manufacturing.
IRON ORE IMPORTS MARCH HIGH TO RECORD HIGH
Imports of iron?ore in the largest consumer country reached a record last year, as mills were encouraged to book more cargoes by low inventories and better steel margins.
Analysts said that robust exports of steel were also driving a resilient demand for this key ingredient in steelmaking.
Imports rose by 8.2% in December from the previous month to 119.65 millions tons. This is the highest monthly import volume ever. In 2025, total imports will reach a new record of 1.26 billion tonnes, an increase of 1.8% over 2024.
According to Bai Xin of Horizon Insights, the analyst, global iron ore production is expected to?grow 2.5% by 2026. Shipments to China will increase between 36 and 38 million tonnes, putting pressure on prices in 2018. Reporting by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson and Jacqueline Wong.
(source: Reuters)