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China's strong iron ore imports contrast with weak steel output: Russell

The strength in China's iron ore imports this year stands in plain contrast to the weak point in steel production and need, setting up a. predicament as to how the contradiction will be fixed.

China, which purchases about 75% of global seaborne iron ore,. imported 102.3 million metric lots in May, according to customs. information, marking a third straight month of arrivals of more than. 100 million loads.

For the first 5 months of the year, imports of the key. steel raw material were 513.75 million heaps, a gain of 7%.

However, China's unrefined steel output fell in April to 85.94. million loads, down 2.6% from March and 7.2% from the very same month. in 2023, according to main data.

In the first 4 months of 2024, China produced 343.67. million tons of unrefined steel, down 3% year-on-year.

While main numbers for May are yet to be launched, data. from the China Iron and Steel Association, which represents the. country's most significant mills, recommend steel output is not likely to. have staged much of a healing last month.

Steel mills are also struggling with weak margins, with information. from cost reporting company Argus showing that in the last 10. days of May, profits for producing hot-rolled coil dropped by 20. yuan ($ 2.76) a load to between 50 and 100 yuan.

Sentiment amongst steelmakers has yet to be lifted by. Beijing's ongoing efforts to improve the key housing building and construction. industry.

Steel need and market sentiment might increase in the 2nd. half as stimulus procedures begin to have an effect, however for now. the reality of soft need for steel is outweighing expect a. recovery.

This pleads the question as to how long iron ore imports can. remain at robust levels.

The increasing imports haven't been used to make more steel. - rather they have actually been used to restore inventories.

Port stockpiles kept an eye on by experts SteelHome. << SH-TOT-IRONINV > increased to 147.3 million lots in the week to June. 7, the highest in 25 months. They have actually been climbing gradually since reaching a seven-year. low of 104.9 million loads in the recently of October, and are. now 42.4 million heaps greater. The increase in inventories over the

last 7 months works out. to a typical gain of 6.06 million loads a month, which goes some. way to discussing the current strength in iron ore imports. There is still some scope for stockpiles to rise further. before they reach the record high of 160.6 million heaps from May. 2018. COST IMPACT There is likewise a solid connection between iron ore rates. and China's imports, and

part of the strong import story can be. ascribed to the decrease in costs between the start of the year. and the low so far this year in April. Iron ore contracts traded on the Singapore Exchange.

hit an 18-month high of $143.60 a lot on Jan. 3 before falling. to $98.36 on April 4. This suggests that the bulk of the iron ore delivered

up till. completion of May was purchased while rates were dropping. However, because the April low costs have recuperated

, reaching. a high of$ 119.64 a lot on May 6. Since then the weaker. sentiment in the steel sector has actually weighed on iron ore, with the. contract ending at$ 107.06 on Monday. In the lack

of rising steel need in China, steel mills. are known to suffer weak margins if iron ore costs are above. $ 100 a ton.

This suggests that the most likely method for the current. divergence between iron ore imports and weak steel output to be. fixed is through lower iron ore rates and import volumes.

Naturally, any indications that steel demand is in fact. reinforcing will change the marketplace characteristics, but up until now these. indications are missing out on in action.

The viewpoints revealed here are those of the author, a columnist. .

(source: Reuters)