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China's first quarter coal imports surge, defying bleak projections: Russell

China's coal market says it doesn't anticipate imports to increase this year, however the proof from the first quarter is that the appetite of the world's greatest purchaser remains ravenous.

China's imports of all grades of coal from the seaborne market were 97.43 million metric lots in the first quarter of 2024, up 16.9% from 83.36 million heaps in the very same duration in 2023, according to information put together by commodity analysts Kpler.

The robust development in imports contrasts with the downbeat evaluation of China's coal sector at an industry conference in Xiamen last month, where the agreement of views was that imports will remain flat, and even decrease in 2024.

China imported a record 474.42 million lots of coal in 2023 and the agreement of projections is for arrivals this year to be in a range in between 450 and 500 million lots.

Official customizeds information for the first 2 months of 2024 showed overall coal imports of 74.52 million lots, up 23% from the corresponding period a year previously.

The customs numbers include coal that comes overland from neighbouring countries, generally Mongolia, which supplies mainly metallurgical coal used to make steel.

While China does import some metallurgical coal from the seaborne market, the overwhelming majority is thermal coal, used mainly to produce electrical energy and also in some commercial procedures.

The steady expectations for coal imports contrast with expectations that China's power generation in 2024 will increase 5.3% from 2023, when it got 6.9%, going beyond economic development of 5.2%.

Electrical power output is rising faster than gross domestic product as more industrial procedures are amazed, electric car sales increase and consumers spend more on home appliances such as air conditioners.

While there are other aspects that go into China's power generation, such as just how much hydropower generation may rise, it's still most likely that coal will be contacted to meet much of the increased need.

The main unidentified factors for thermal coal imports are whether China's domestic output will rise enough to cover need development, and if import prices will stay competitive with domestic materials.

PRICES DIP

China's thermal coal prices have actually been moving in recent weeks, with specialists SteelHome evaluating coal at the northern port of Qinhuangdao << SH-QHA-TRMCOAL > at 810 yuan($ 112.03 )a ton on Monday.

This is below a recent high of 940 yuan a ton on Feb. 28 and likewise listed below the 1,040 yuan that prevailed this time last year.

Nevertheless, the primary grades of thermal coal that China imports from the seaborne market have also been damaging, indicating that they stay competitive even once freight and import duties are factored in.

Indonesia is China's biggest provider of thermal coal and the price of cargoes with an energy content of 4,200 kilocalories per kg (kcal/kg), as assessed by product price reporting company Argus, dropped to $54.83 a load in the week ended April 1.

The rate has actually slipped practically 40% given that the recent high of $ 90.45 a ton at the start of December.

Australian thermal coal with an energy material of 5,500 kcal/kg, a grade popular with Chinese buyers, ended at $85.69 a heap in the week to April 5, a seven-month low and below the recent high of $96.60 at the start of March.

With seaborne thermal coal rates competitive against domestic products, and strong growth in China's electrical energy generation, it's difficult to make a case for imports to moderate.

This is especially the case given that the mining industry isn't anticipating strong development in domestic coal output in 2024, with the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association estimating that production will rise by just 0.8%, or 36 million heaps, to about 4.7 billion loads in 2024.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a writer .

(source: Reuters)