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Fitch warns that AI market correction is a major global credit risk

Fitch, the ratings agency, has warned that a global credit risk is emerging from the AI boom, and it's a risk of a possible correction. This comes as a result of growing concerns about the fact that tech?values and AI spending are soaring ahead of uncertain future returns.

Fitch's Global Risk Outlook for the third quarter of 2018 focuses on two main short-term credit risks: the growing vulnerability to a market correction related to AI and the continued uncertainty associated with the U.S./Iran conflict.

The ratings agency reiterated warnings by global watchdogs, that the AI boom is increasingly intertwined in economic growth, and capital markets, especially in the United States. This increases the risk of a major "selloff".

Fitch said that "the scale of AI investments is such that it exposes the economy and the overall capital markets to such a corrective action."

VALUATIONS CLOSE TO DOTCOM BOOM

The warning is the most blunt yet from a major rating firm. It came at a time when Asia's AI stocks were again in the red on Tuesday, amid concerns about who was paying for the spending explosion and growing evidence of competition from China.

Fitch's report highlights that the U.S. S&P 500 cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio has climbed to close to the levels seen during the dotcom boom of the late 1990s, while U.S. Corporate Bond issuance surged by?26%, driven largely by AI related fundraising, in the first half 2026.

Fitch estimates that Alphabet and Amazon will increase their capital expenditures by more than 75% to $700 billion this year.

The US government estimated that the boom in IT investment contributed directly 1.4 percentage points of growth to the first quarter GDP, and rising equity prices also supported household spending via a wealth-effect.

Uncertainty over future AI revenues and regulation, as well as disruptions to the labour market and competition, could trigger a significant and long-lasting correction in the market, with wide-ranging macroeconomic consequences.

Fitch stated that "the extent to which AI has become integrated into capital markets and economies has created a vulnerability in credit."

WAR AND EL?NINO

The geopolitical risks remain the second major concern. This is especially true with the renewed fighting between Iran and the U.S. in the last few weeks?and the recent closure?of the Strait of Hormuz.

Fitch predicts that the world's growth will slow to 2.4% by 2026, and that U.S. inflation for the year will be 3.7%. This is due to the effect of higher energy prices.

The credit risk was also elevated by a strong El Nino pattern, given the possibility of severe storms, droughts, and floods.

The rating agency warned that the U.S. - Iran conflict could increase inflationary pressures.

It added that countries with high debt and "junk" ratings would be especially vulnerable, as food price spikes could complicate monetary policy, increase subsidies costs, and further strain the public finances.

Fitch warned that in Latin America, where diesel and fertiliser account for 50% to 70% of agricultural inputs, and 30% of fertilisers are imported from the Middle East (as of 2012), higher costs and lower harvests may squeeze agribusinesses' margins, and affect transport sectors such as ports, railways, and toll roads. (Reporting and editing by David Holmes; Marc Jones)

(source: Reuters)