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The G20 in Durban will be shadowed by BRICS tensions and the absence of BRICS

The G20 in Durban will be shadowed by BRICS tensions and the absence of BRICS

The G20 Finance Chiefs' meeting in Durban this week is likely to be overshadowed by Donald Trump's tariffs, Scott Bessent's no-show, and the rising tensions between Washington, South Africa, and BRICS.

Bessent was among the key officials who skipped Cape Town's February gathering of finance and central bank ministers in the grouping. This raised questions about their ability to address pressing global challenges.

Josh Lipsky is the chair of International Economics at the Atlantic Council. He said, "It's problematic that the world's biggest economy is not represented, at least on a high political level."

Lipsky said that Bessent’s absence presaged U.S. plans to slim down the G20 and go "back-to-basics" when the U.S. assumes the rotating presidency of the grouping next year.

Trump has implemented a 10% baseline tariff on all U.S. Imports. Punitive rates are targeted at specific countries and products, including steel and aluminium at 50%, automobiles at 25% and levies up to 200% for pharmaceuticals. On August 1, additional tariffs will be imposed on 25 countries. The threat of imposing additional tariffs on BRICS nations is complicated by the fact that eight G20 countries, including South Africa as host country, are part of the expanded BRICS grouping. This overlap suggests the rise of rival forums, as Western-led organizations face credibility issues.

Fundi Tshazibana, Deputy governor of the South African Reserve Bank, said that "policy uncertainty" is the current biggest issue.

The G20 was born out of past firefighting crises and took off when countries all over the world realized that they needed to coordinate their policies in order to recover from the global financial crash at the end of the 2000s.

Brad Setser, of the Council on Foreign Relations, said that the G20 was built on the assumption that all major economies in the world shared a similar interest in a relatively stable and open global economy. "But Trump isn't interested in stability, and wants to close the global economy."

'DIFFICULT SPACE'

The Durban meeting of finance chiefs that will take place on Thursday and Friday is also taking place against the backdrop of increasing economic pressures, especially for African economies. Goldman Sachs estimates that Sub-Saharan Africa’s external debt is now $800 billion or 45% GDP. Traditional funding sources have also dried up.

After years of rapid expansion, Chinese lending has slowed down to a trickle. This leaves an $80 billion funding gap.

Trevor Manuel, former Finance Minister of South Africa and leader of the Africa Expert Panel at the G20, said: "Their views are that if they negotiate before they take the loan, then they will accept it."

"But after the loan has been made, they expect to receive a return. This is embedded in their laws." "This is a very important issue," he said. China's Belt and Road Initiative brought significant resources to Africa, but there are also offsets.

I think part of the drive going forward will be greater transparency. This means that certain barter arrangements, etc. need to treated quite differently.

As Washington cuts foreign aid, and European capitals redirect money to defence, U.S. grants and European grants that account for 25% of external funding in the region will be cut.

Lumkile Montdi, a political commentator from the University of Witwatersrand, said that "Africa is in an extremely difficult situation."

The continent's investment will decline due to high levels of debt and low GDP growth. This makes it less relevant for the current geoeconomics.

Pretoria assumed the G20 Presidency in December, under the slogan "Solidarity. Equality. Sustainability". It had hoped that it would use this platform to put pressure on rich countries to finance climate change and to address the mistrust between the North and South of the world. In reality, Pretoria is now dealing with the fallout of aid cuts and tariffs wars which directly undermine these goals.

South Africa, as the continent's largest economy, is under pressure to promote African interests and navigate great power rivalries. National Treasury stated that it is "premature" to comment on the specific goals of the meeting.

Duncan Pieterse, Director General of Treasury, said in a Monday statement that the South African G20 Presidency hoped to release the first Communique at the conclusion of the meetings. The G20 financial stability watchdog released a new climate risk plan on Monday, but put policy work on hold amid a U.S. retreat which has slowed down efforts to develop a united financial strategy on climate-related threats.

The U.S. withdrew from several groups that were exploring the impact of climate policy changes and flooding, wildfires, and other factors on financial stability.

(source: Reuters)