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Rio Tinto expects a strong Q4 in order to meet its annual iron ore production forecast. Copper is gaining steam
Rio Tinto on Tuesday reported softer-than-anticipated third-quarter iron ore shipments and warned it would require a vigorous year-end push to attain the lower end of its annual target, even as copper output races to the top of its forecast. Four cyclones disrupted the schedules Early this year Rio Tinto forecasts its 2025 iron-ore shipment at the lower end its range of 323 million to 338 millions tonnes (Mt). Rio Tinto said that the cyclones had impacted 13 Mt of shipments during the first quarter, and was on track for about half to be recovered. Visible Alpha's consensus estimate for the third quarter was 85.5 Mt. This is a slight under-estimate. As Rio reallocated materials from its SP10 product, the company saw a 50% increase in quarterly shipments of its newly introduced 60.8% Pilbara Blend. SP10 only accounted for 9% of the total shipments in this quarter. This is a sharp drop from 29% during the previous period. This was the first quarter under the new CEO, Simon Trott. He is the former head of iron ores. In August, he announced the simplification of the structure of the company into three divisions, global iron ore and aluminium, lithium and copper. Rio Tinto, like its competitors, is increasing the production of copper. Copper is expected to become more in demand as we transition to cleaner forms of energy. Rio is on track to increase copper production by over 50% this year as a result of the increased output at the Mongolian mine. On the back of the strong performance at Amrun, the miner reported its second consecutive record quarter in bauxite output. It also raised its full-year estimation to a range between 59 Mt and 61 Mt. (Reporting by Rishav Chatterjee & Rajasik Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Pooja Desai)
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Backwardation in US oil futures narrows to a 20-month low amid fears of a glut
The front-month U.S. Crude Oil Futures contract ended Monday's trading with the smallest premium over the seven-month contract since January 2024, as OPEC+ increases supply and seasonal refinery maintenance pressures the demand for immediate barrels. The market term for immediate delivery fetching a higher premium than later deliveries suggests that investors are losing money by selling their oil on the spot market, as the near-term supply appears to be abundant. For the first time since January, U.S. crude oil futures would be in a contango if the spread reversed from a premium into a discount. WTI crude futures settled for November delivery at $59.49 a barrel on Monday. The May 2026 contract settled for $59.02 a barrel, creating an additional 47 cents per barrel for the prompt barrels The narrowest since last January 16th. Andrew Lipow, President of Lipow Oil Associates, said that the narrowing of the gap is indicative of an excess of supplies in the short term and then a concern about tightening of supplies when future demand increases. Lipow said, "We're seeing an increase in supply from OPEC+. This, combined with reports that more oil is in floating storage, puts pressure on the curve at the front, along with seasonal refinery maintenance. OPEC+ (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus its allies) has increased their oil production targets this year by over 2.7 million barrels a day, which is equivalent to around 2.5% of the global demand. This has stoked supply glut concerns. Shohruh Zhritdinov said that this is flattening WTI's curve, as the market now prices in less tightness for early 2026, according to a Dubai oil trader. According to the Energy Information Administration, the average U.S. refinery usage for a four-week period fell to 92.5%, its lowest level since the first half of June when the U.S. driving season began. Zukhritdinov stated that "physical builds and refinery delays equate to a lower need to pay for prompt barrels." (Reporting and editing by David Gregorio in Houston, Georgina McCartney from Houston)
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Gold reaches $4,100 on the back of trade tensions and rate-cut optimism
On Monday, gold broke through $4100 per ounce, a new record, on renewed U.S. China trade tensions, and on expectations of U.S. rate cuts. Silver also reached a new high. As of 01:47 pm, spot gold had risen 2.2%, to $4,106.48 an ounce. After hitting a new record of $4,116.77 at 1747 GMT ET (1747 GMT), spot gold was up 2.2% to $4,106.48 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December closed 3.3% higher, at $4133. Gold prices have risen 56% in the past year, and last week they reached the $4,000 mark for the first. This is due to factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, economic concerns, and expectations of U.S. rate cuts. Central bank purchases are also a major factor. Gold could continue to rise. "We could see prices above $5,000 by 2026," said Phillip Streible. Chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. Streible said that the structural support of the market is provided by steady central bank purchases, strong ETF inflows as well as U.S. China trade tensions. The geopolitical front saw U.S. president Donald Trump reinitiate trade tensions with China, ending a tense truce between two of the world's largest economies. While traders price in a 97% chance of a Federal Reserve rate reduction in October, and a 100% probability for December. Gold is a non-yielding investment that tends to perform well in low interest rate environments. Standard Chartered's forecast for next year has been raised to $4,488 on average. Standard Chartered Bank's global head of commodities research, Suki Cooper said: "We believe this rally will continue, but a short-term correction is better for a long-term trend." Spot silver climbed 3.1% to $51.82, reaching a record high earlier in the session of $52.12. This was boosted by the same factors that supported gold and tightness on the spot market. Technical indicators indicate that both gold and silver are overbought. The relative strength index (RSI), which measures the relative strength of the two metals, is 80 for gold and 83 in the case of silver. Palladium rose 5.2% to 1,478.94, while platinum gained 3.9%. Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru, Pablo Sinha, Sherin Elizabeth Varighese, and Kavya Varghese; Additional reporting and editing by Joe Bavier and Alexander Smith; Shreya Biwas.
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Officials say that 19 people were killed by rebels affiliated with the Islamic State in eastern Congo.
Two local officials reported on Monday that suspected Islamic State-backed terrorists killed 19 civilians during an overnight attack in eastern Congo. This has exacerbated the insecurity of this mineral-rich area. Alain Kiwewa is the Lubero territory military administrator, where Mukondo lies, and he told reporters that the death toll may rise. The ADF has not immediately claimed responsibility. Also known as the Islamic State Central Africa Province, (ISCAP), it has been responsible for several attacks in recent weeks, including a September attack on a funeral in which more than 60 people were killed. ADF could not be reached for comment immediately. Assailants from Mukondo were wearing uniforms that looked like those of the Congolese Army, which enabled them to enter Mukondo without being noticed. The attackers then used guns, knives, and clubs to attack people, according to a local priest who refused his name out of security concerns. Espoir Kambale, a leader of the civil society in the region, put the death toll at 19. He also said that eight people were injured and 26 homes had been burned. Kambale said, "We ask ourselves how the terrorists came and attacked us when we thought the village was secure." The population is in a panic. "Some residents fled to the bush and never returned." The ADF began as a Ugandan rebel force, but is now based in the Congolese forests since the late 90s. It has also been recognised as an affiliate by the Islamic State. The recent attacks by the M23 rebels, who are backed by Rwanda, have increased security concerns in eastern Congo. This has prompted U.S. president Donald Trump's administration, to attempt to broker peace. Reporting by Congo Newsroom; Writing by Ayen deng Bior; editing by Rob Corey-Boulet, Lisa Shumaker and Lisa Shumaker
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EU lawmakers oppose cuts to the reach of sustainability laws
The European Parliament’s Legal Committee backed plans on Monday to weaken the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Law, which has been criticized by companies who claim that complying with these rules will hinder the competitiveness for European industries. Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), adopted by the European Union last year, requires companies to address human rights and environment issues in their supply chain or face a fine of 5% global turnover. The European Parliament's Legal Committee voted on Monday to approve proposals that would only make the rules compulsory for companies with at least 5,000 employees and a turnover of 1.5 billion euros. CSDDD is currently applicable to companies that have 1,000 employees or more and a turnover of over 450 millions euros. The committee also supported dropping the requirement that companies have "transition plans." CUTTING BUSINESS COSTS The (conservative-leaning) European People's Party's aim has always been to reduce costs and simplify rules for businesses," said Jorgen Warsborn, the legislator who drafted the approved text on Monday. "Our vote will bring more predictability to our businesses in a world that is unpredictable," said Jorgen Warborn, the lawmaker who drafted the text approved on Monday. The committee asked that the European parliament begin negotiations with EU countries on final rules without a vote by the entire assembly. The committee could force a vote by a group of legislators equivalent to 10% of the assembly. Some of the proposed changes are already likely to be implemented. EU countries have already stated that they support changing the law so that it only applies to companies with at least 5,000 employees. CSDDD is one of the most controversial parts of Europe’s green agenda. Countries such as the United States and Qatar have demanded changes. The EU, they argue, is going too far by imposing these requirements on foreign firms. TotalEnergies and other European companies have called on the EU to scrap the law completely, warning that it could harm the competitiveness of the EU. Investors and activists have reacted negatively to the move, claiming that it undermines corporate accountability while reducing Europe's capacity to attract investment towards meeting climate goals. Amandine van den Berghe, senior lawyer at nonprofit law firm ClientEarth, said: "If these changes are adopted in the end, this law would be stripped of its purpose to serve short-term political convenience." What is a cornerstone for responsible business in Europe has been turned into a bargaining chip. (Reporting from Kate Abnett in Brussels and Inti landauro; Editing by Benoit van Overstraeten, Matthew Lewis).
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Gold reaches $4,100 on the back of trade tensions and rate-cut optimism
On Monday, gold broke through $4100 per ounce, a new record, on renewed U.S. China trade tensions, and on expectations of U.S. rate cuts. Silver also reached a record high. As of 12:17 pm, spot gold had risen 2.4%, to $4,114.31 an ounce. After hitting a new record of $4,116.77 at 1617 GMT ET (1617 GMT), gold prices have risen 2.4% to $4114.31 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery rose by 3.3% to $4133.90. Gold prices have risen 56% in the past year, and last week they reached the $4,000 mark for the first. This is due to factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, economic concerns, and expectations of U.S. rate cuts. Central bank purchases are also a major factor. Gold could continue to rise. "We could see prices above $5,000 by 2026," said Phillip Streible. Chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. Streible said that the structural support of the market is provided by the steady central bank purchases, the firm ETF inflows as well as the U.S. China trade tensions. Streible added that on the geopolitical side, U.S. president Donald Trump reignited the trade tensions between China and the United States last Friday, ending a tense truce. While traders price in a 97% chance of a Federal Reserve rate reduction in October, and a 100% probability for December. Gold is a non-yielding investment that tends to perform well in environments with low interest rates. Bank of America analysts and Societe Generale expect gold to hit $5,000 by 2026. Standard Chartered's forecast has been raised to $4,488 on average next year. Standard Chartered Bank's global head of commodities research, Suki Cooper said: "This rally is strong, but a short-term correction will be better for a long-term trend." Spot silver increased 3.1% to $51.82, reaching a record high earlier in the session of $52.07. This was boosted by the same factors that supported gold and tightness on the spot market. Technical indicators indicate that both gold and silver are overbought. The relative strength index (RSI), which measures the strength of the relationship between two assets, is 80 for gold. Palladium rose 6.5%, to $1496.52. Platinum gained 5%, to $1666. Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru, Pablo Sinha in Mumbai and Sherin-Elizabeth Varghese; Additional reporting and editing by Joe Bavier & Alexander Smith.
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Trump will meet Zelenskiy this Friday to discuss air defense and new weapons
Three sources familiar with the plans said that President Donald Trump would meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy for a luncheon on Friday. The meeting comes amid increasing discussions over the possible provision of Tomahawk long-range missiles to Kyiv. Both leaders met on Saturday and Sunday. A high-ranking Ukrainian delegation, headed by Prime Minister Yulia Shvyrydenko is scheduled to arrive in Washington, DC, before Friday's meeting, to prepare the groundwork for their talks. One of the sources, who requested anonymity, as the visit had not been announced publicly, stated that the main topics would be air defense, additional U.S. arms for Kyiv, and Russia's possible return to the negotiation table. Zelenskiy is lobbying Washington for the supply of U.S. Tomahawk missiles that can hit Moscow but are only used on military targets, according to Ukrainians. Moscow said that such a move could be a significant escalation. Trump said that he was considering sending Tomahawks into Ukraine. He also stated that he may speak to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Ukraine and the U.S. also appear to be closing in on an historic drone deal, in which Ukraine will share drone technology with United States. European diplomats view such a deal to be an important tool in keeping the volatile U.S. President engaged and supportive of Ukraine. Reporting by Steve Holland in Washington, Tom Balmforth and Gram Slattery from London. Editing by Jeff Mason & Matthew Lewis.
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Gold reaches $4,100 on the back of trade tensions and rate-cut optimism
On Monday, gold broke through $4100 per ounce, a new record, on renewed U.S. China trade tensions, and on expectations of U.S. rate cuts. Silver also reached a new high. As of 10:50 am, spot gold had risen 2.1%, to $4,099.55 an ounce. After hitting a new record of $4,103.58 at 1450 GMT ET, gold prices rose 2.1% to $4099.55. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery rose 3% to 4,120.10. Gold prices have risen 56% in the past year, and last week they reached the $4,000 mark for the first. This is due to factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, economic concerns, and expectations of U.S. rate cuts. Central bank purchases are also a major factor. Jeffrey Christian, managing partner of CPM Group, said that gold and silver prices rise when investors become concerned about the current state of the economy or politics. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, reignited the trade tensions between China and the United States on Friday. This ended an uneasy truce that existed between the two world's largest economies. While traders price in a 97% chance of a Federal Reserve rate reduction in October, and a 100% probability for December. Gold is a non-yielding investment that tends to perform well in environments with low interest rates. Bank of America analysts and Societe Generale expect gold to hit $5,000 by 2026. Standard Chartered's forecast has been raised to $4,488 on average next year. Standard Chartered Bank's global head of commodities research, Suki Cooper said: "This rally is strong, but a short-term correction will be better for a long-term trend." Spot silver increased 3.3% to $51.95, reaching a record high earlier in the session of $52.07. This was boosted by the same factors that supported gold and tightness on the spot market. Technical indicators indicate that both gold and silver are overbought. The relative strength index (RSI), which measures the relative strength of a currency, is 80 for gold. Palladium rose 5.4% to $1.482.00, while platinum gained 4.6%. (Reporting from Sherin Elizabeth Varighese and Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru, Additional reporting by Kavya Baliaraman; Editing and Joe Bavier by Alexander Smith and Joe Bavier)
'Amazonia' bonds in 2024 seen a tough cost some
A political push to raise the firstever Amazonia Bond has actually increase throughout talk with agree a roadmap, yet the possibility of an offer this year faces technical hurdles and scepticism amongst some of those entrusted with handling the financial obligation, sources informed .
Brazil, Colombia, and Ecuador are amongst a group of countries in talks with advancement banks to launch a specifically supported structure to raise billions of dollars of low-priced financing to protect the world's greatest rainforest.
Proposed by the Inter-American Advancement Bank and World Bank in 2015, is for the first time reporting the progress being made, the bond structures and timings being gone over, but likewise some of the push-back from officials in two of the region's biggest nations.
Covering more than 6 million square kilometers, the Amazon absorbs large amounts of climate-warming greenhouse gases and is home to more than 10% of all known animals and plants, the highest density of types anywhere in the world.
It would be a significant landmark transaction for nature-linked securities, stated Arend Kulenkampff, director of the Sustainability-linked Sovereign Debt Center, a non-profit effort to coordinate green financing, describing the effort's capacity effect.
COST OF STEWARDSHIP Politically, Amazonia bonds line up with the call from the presidents of Brazil, Colombia and others in the Amazon basin for abundant countries to contribute more to jungle's. security.
A member of Brazil's environment delegation told that. increasing multilateral advancement bank (MDB) financing is a. leading need of it G20 presidency this year and ahead of the U.N. climate summits in Azerbaijan in November and its Amazonian city. of Belem in 2025.
Just MDBs can rally climate funding on the scale that is. needed in big establishing nations like Brazil, Mexico and. India, the individual stated. 'Credit assurances' for instance can. greatly lower loaning costs that can normally be in the. double-digits for nations.
How much money MDBs can supply and how fast is an open. concern, as authorities state there is no time to lose in. attending to environment modification.
However while politically Brazil, and Colombia which hosts the. COP16 U.N. biodiversity talks in October, are both eager to have. a landmark deal to reveal for their efforts, some authorities are. sceptical of the requirement to hurry a new financial obligation instrument.
Colombia, like the other 8 Amazon countries, could. introduce an 'Amazon bond,' but it has actually insisted on thinking about the. Amazon not as a source of financial obligation however as a source of income, said. Jose Roberto Acosta, Colombia's director of public credit at the. finance ministry.
Emerging economies are significantly pushing for the world to. help put a value on their stewardship of such shared resources,. for example by generating biodiversity credits that might be. offered to other nations or companies to raise cash.
For this factor, it is not likely that it will be. accomplished before COP16, Acosta stated.
2 sources with direct knowledge of the matter told . that conversations were still in preliminary phases within. Brazil's federal government and that any development, if verified, would. not come this year.
Brazil's Finance Ministry, stated it was up until now unaware of. any conversations and had not yet received a formal proposition for. an Amazonia bond.
The ministry likewise indicated last year's strong demand for. Brazil's very first international green bond that raised $2 billion. and was offered with lower-than-normal 6% rates of interest. It prepares. to issue more in the future it added, although banking sources. suggested an MDB-guaranteed Amazonia bond may just require half. that interest rate.
And there is requirement to keep interest rate as low as. possible. The expense of hitting Brazil's self-set climate targets. - it is intending to more than halve its greenhouse gas emissions. by 2030 and be 'net absolutely no' by 2050 - has actually been estimated at $100. billion a year, or 7% of its financial output.
Other nations and the advancement banks associated with the. strategies did not comment on the status of talks when asked by. .
MARCH TALKS
The March talks went over a variety of concerns that will need. to be concurred before the first bond is launched.
Amongst them was what to consist of on the menu of bond options. open to countries issuing under the framework, with an aim of. introducing both usage of profits bonds - where money is. earmarked for specific projects - and sustainability-linked. bonds (SLBs), connected to more general objectives like minimizing. deforestation rates.
With many nations in the region yet to write SLB. structures into national guidelines, an use of proceeds bond is. a most likely alternative for the first issuance, three sources stated. Companies and regional development banks might also release in future.
International interest is strong, with person. governments including Sweden, Italy and Spain already offering. assistance, 3 sources said. Moving forward, other multilaterals. such as the Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean. ( CAF) are most likely to end up being involved, one source included.
Among other problems to solve is defining what must be. considered a genuine use of the brand-new bonds' proceeds,. including whether to enable spending in cities, provided 80% of. those residing in the Amazon are in urbanised environments.
While the very first bonds are likely to be provided by nations. separately, the hope is they could eventually be done jointly. under the IDB's 'Amazonia Forever' framework to make big scale. and reliable cross-border conservation efforts possible.
The goal of the program is to fund sustainable development. and help reduce logging, with the equivalent of about four. soccer pitches being reduced every minute, according to EU. data.
While Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Peru, Bolivia and. Suriname have currently signed up, providing bonds collectively is no. easy accomplishment offered the differing financial health of each state.
It follows a drive by Brazil's left-wing President Luiz. Inacio Lula da Silva to unite his neighbours in pressing richer. nations to help pay to protect the forest. Because 1970, Latin. America has lost 94% of its monitored populations of mammals,. birds, fish, reptiles and amphibians, a WWF and ZSL analysis. showed.
(source: Reuters)