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Global stocks flatten amid Ukraine talks ahead of Jackson Hole
Wall Street and European stocks ended Monday flat or slightly lower, ahead of an important central bank meeting later this week which will likely determine the future direction of U.S. rate policy. Investors are also interested in the meeting between President Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskiy, a Ukrainian politician. As part of any agreement to end Russia's conflict in Ukraine, the U.S. president said that the United States will help Europe provide security for Ukraine. Both leaders are pushing for a tripartite meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The financial markets have reacted very little to the news of the Ukraine negotiations. Marc Chandler, the chief market strategist of Bannockburn Forex New York said: "I can't see anything really new or tangible in this." "The argument that Ukraine and the EU use is basically that Russia took Crimea, and it was not good enough for them. They're now trying to grab more of Ukraine. Even now, with all the negotiations that are going on, Russia wants to increase its offensive." The Zelenskiy summit followed the Alaska Summit with Putin which failed to produce an agreement. Trump, after his Alaskan talks with Putin, appeared to be more in line with Moscow's desire for a peace agreement than a ceasefire. S&P 500 was little changed Monday but it remained close to its record high set on Friday. The MSCI All Country World Index, which is a pan-European index, also ended the day slightly lower but still not far off its record high reached on Friday. In the Asian session earlier, indexes from Japan, Taiwan, and China reached record highs, with a Chinese stock gauge reaching its highest level for a decade. The Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium, which takes place from August 21 to 23, is another key event for this week. Chair Jerome Powell will be speaking on the economy and the central banks policy framework. The U.S. futures market is pricing in a 85% chance that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point at its meeting on September 17. It also prices further easing for December. In a research note, Andrew Hollenhorst wrote that Fed Chair Jerome Powell would likely indicate Friday that the risks to inflation and employment are becoming more equalized, which could imply lowering rates towards neutral. "But he won't commit to a reduction next month until he receives the August data on jobs and inflation." Globally, the prospect of lower borrowing rates has boosted stock markets. Japan's Nikkei index reached a new record high. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan ended Monday flat after reaching a four-year high last week. In Europe, the DAX in Germany fell by 0.2%. The FTSE in Britain was up 0.2%. Earnings from ROBUST The rally in the US stock market has been fueled by a strong earnings season. S&P 500's EPS increased 11% over the past year, and 58% of companies have raised their guidance for the full year. Goldman Sachs analysts said that the earnings results of mega-cap technology companies have been exceptional. Home Depot, Target Lowe's, Walmart and Lowe's all reported this week. The yield curve on bond markets has widened. The difference between the two-year and the 10-year Treasury yields reached 57,8 basis points. This is the biggest gap since mid-July. The rates on the back end of the curve increased much faster than the ones on the front, indicating higher inflation expectations. The dollar has been impacted by the FX market's bets that the Fed will ease further. It dropped 0.3% on Monday against a basket currency and was last trading at 98.114. The dollar increased 0.4% against the yen, to 147.82. Meanwhile, the euro dropped 0.3% to $1.1667. Gold was unchanged at $3,333 per ounce, after losing 1.9% the previous week. The oil prices increased after the meeting between Trump Zelenskiy which didn't really produce any meaningful results. Brent crude was up 1% to $66.52 per barrel while U.S. Crude stood at $63.34 a barrel.
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UBS increases gold target price by $100 for March 2026 to $3,600/oz
UBS raised its target price of gold for the end of March 2026 from $3,600 to $3,600 as U.S. macroeconomic risk, de-dollarization and strong demand, especially by exchange-traded fund (ETF) and central banks, are expected to push gold prices higher. UBS has also raised its forecast for the end of June 2026 by $200, to $3700 per ounce. It introduced a new target for the end of September 2026 at this level. The bank believes that a combination of sticky U.S. Inflation, a below-trend U.S. Federal Reserve, continued dollar weakness, and a likely easing in policy will support gold prices. We see U.S.-related macro-risks, concerns about fiscal sustainability and geopolitics driving de-dollarization and central bank purchases. UBS stated in a note that these factors would drive gold prices higher. UBS increased its forecast for the full year ETF gold demand to almost 600 metric tonnes from 450, citing World Gold Council figures showing the strongest inflows into 2025's first half since 2010. Central bank purchases are expected to remain strong, although slightly lower than last year's record-breaking purchases. UBS said that they now expect global gold demand to rise by 3% in 2025 to 4,760 mt, the highest level seen since 2011. U.S. Gold Futures For December Delivery, the price settled at $3,378 Monday, down 0.1%, as investors were focused on President Donald Trump's meetings with Ukrainian and European Leaders. (Reporting and editing by Leslie Adler, Marguerita Chy and Noel John from Bengaluru)
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Petrobras CEO worried about change in Brazil's oil reference price
Magda Chambriard, CEO of state-run oil company Petrobras, said that the change in Brazil's oil reference price, which determines certain taxes and royalties paid by drillers, could affect the viability of some projects, both offshore and onshore, in post-salt areas. Chambriard said that crude oil from its post-salt field is worth less compared to crude oil from its pre-salt field. Oil fields that are pre-salt are huge reserves located under an undersea salt layer. The post-salt oil fields are those above the hard salt layer. Chambriard, in an interview with Eixos, said that Petrobras is trying to revive oil production on the coast and in the post-salt areas of northern Rio de Janeiro State. The change, he added, hurts this move. Chambriard expressed concern about the future of oil production. After years of discussion, the oil regulator ANP altered the criterion for setting the reference price at a meeting in July. This should boost Brazil's government finances by increasing tax revenue and royalties. Alexandre Silveira, Brazil's Mines and Energy minister, said that the change would take effect on September 1, and bring an extra 1 billion reais (184.05 millions dollars) to the federal government at the end of the fiscal year.
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Investors continue to assess Trump-Zelenskiy's meeting as gold prices remain steady
Gold prices were mostly unchanged on Monday as investors focused their attention on U.S. president Donald Trump's meetings with Ukrainian and European officials, and on the Federal Reserve's symposium this week in Jackson Hole. At 01:42 pm, spot gold was slightly lower at $3333.32 an ounce. ET (1742 GMT), having hit its lowest level since 1 August earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 0.1% lower at $3,378. The U.S. Dollar gained 0.3% making the greenback price of bullion higher for other currency holders. Trump said that the U.S. will "help out" Europe to provide security for Ukraine in any deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine. He was speaking as he began a hastily organized White House meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to discuss a way to peace. The European leaders will According to the White House, Trump will meet with him in the White House East Room at 3 pm EDT (1900 GMT) afterward. The meeting between Trump, Zelenskiy and Putin follows Trump's Friday meeting with Putin where both leaders agreed to pursue peace without implementing ceasefire. Gold did not react much to the Putin-Trump summit. I believe we will continue to trade in this range. "The next inflection is the Federal Reserve Conference," said Marex analyst Edward Meir. The minutes of the July policy meeting of the U.S. Central bank are due Wednesday, just before the annual Fed conference, which will be held in Jackson Hole (Wyoming) from August 21-23. The event is expected to feature a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Investors are watching for Powell's comments on the economy outlook. Meir noted that while markets have already priced a 25 basis-point cut, an additional 50 basis-point reduction could push gold prices up. Gold tends perform well in low-interest rate environments and increased uncertainty. Silver spot rose 0.1%, to $38.02 an ounce. Platinum fell 0.1%, to $1,334.10. The spot palladium price rose 1%, to $1122.86. It had fallen to its lowest point since July 10, earlier in the session. (Reporting and editing by Arun K. Koyyur, Sahal M. Muhammed; Noel John from Bengalur)
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At least 52 people are killed by rebels with machetes in eastern Congo
UN and local officials reported that Islamic State-backed fighters with machetes, hoes and other weapons have recently killed 52 civilians between Beni and Lubero in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. According to Lieutenant Elongo Kyondwa Marx of the regional Congolese Army, after being defeated by Congolese troops, rebels from the Allied Democratic Forces took revenge on civilians. Macaire Sivikunula told the media that the attackers woke up the residents and then gathered them together, tied them with ropes and began to slaughter them with machetes. Alain Kiwewe is a military administrator in Lubero territory. He told reporters that 30 civilians died alone in the village Melia. He said that "among the victims, there were women and children whose throats had been slit at their homes while several houses were burned." Mission spokesperson: The United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission (MONUSCO) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo condemned the ADF attacks between August 9-16 "in the strongest terms possible". The spokesperson stated that the attacks resulted in the deaths of at least 52 civilians including eight women and children. In Congo's mineral rich east, the ADF is one of several militias fighting over land and resources. In recent weeks, the Congolese army and Uganda, its ally in this war, have intensified their operations against ADF. ADF rebels attacked a church in eastern Congo in late July and killed 38 people. Reporting by Congo Newsroom; Writing by Ayen deng Bior; editing by Toby Chopra & Andrew Heavens
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Representative of Elliott's affiliate says that holders of Venezuelan bonds have secured a payment pact.
A representative of bondholders in the United States told a U.S. Court on Monday that holders of a Venezuelan defaulted bond had reached an agreement for a preliminarily settlement with Amber Energy. This was part of the raised bid submitted by Elliott Investment Management to buy the parent company of U.S. refiner Citgo Petroleum this month. Recently, the court auctioned shares saw improved bids from hedge funds Elliott and Vitol affiliates. This was despite the officer who oversaw the bidding round recommending a separate $7.4 billion offer by a Toronto-listed miner Gold Reserve subsidiary. Some creditors and bidders believe that a payment agreement between the PDVSA 2020 bonds holders, which are collateralized by Citgo equity is key to winning a bid. It would remove the obstacle in the finalization of the sale process. Other parties to the case have requested that the Delaware court wait until a separate New York court decides the validity of these bonds. The Delaware court auctions Venezuelan-owned PDV Holding in order to pay up 15 creditors for debt defaults or expropriations that occurred in South America. The Delaware court will set a deadline soon for all bids, whether solicited or uninvited. Judge Leonard Stark announced this in a recent court hearing. The court will confirm the Gold Reserve Group's bid, or recommend a rival offer as the winner. Reporting by Marianna Pararaga Editing Rod Nickel
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Hungarian opposition leader asks Russia to refrain from interfering
Peter Magyar, the leader of Hungary's opposition party, has asked Russia to refrain from interfering in its politics. He said that there was no way for meaningful co-operation without respecting his country's sovereignty. The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service published a statement earlier this week in which it described Magyars as loyal to the "globalist elites", and claimed that the European Commission is considering "regime changes in Budapest." Magyar's Tisza Party, which is ahead of Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz at the polls in the majority of polls before the parliamentary elections next spring, has published an open-letter to Russia's ambassador to Hungary asking what the SVR's statement was intended to achieve. In a letter posted on Facebook Sunday, Magyar demanded "clear assurances" that the Russian Federation would refrain from actions that could be considered as interference in Hungary’s domestic politics. This includes disinformation campaigns, hacker operations, or intimidation of citizens and politicians. Magyar published a letter to Facebook on Monday that the Russian ambassador in Budapest sent him as a reply. The letter said that Magyar’s accusations were “baseless” and that Russia didn't interfere in the internal affairs of whichever foreign country. The SVR's statement on Hungarian political affairs "speaks for itself" and does not require further explanation. The letter signed by Evgeny Stanislavov stated that the contents of the statement were clear and understood by everyone. The Russian Embassy at Budapest has not responded to any of the 'emailed comments. Orban, who has been in power since 2010, is criticized by other EU leaders because of his government's close ties to Moscow and its opposition to military assistance for Ukraine. Orban also accuses EU leaders of plotting his downfall. Magyar is a former insider of the government who has said that he will strive to have "pragmatic relationships" with Russia. Russia supplies Hungary with its majority of energy, and it's also involved in expanding its nuclear plant Paks. He said that the SVR statement was a direct attempt by Russia to influence voters in Hungary. Hungary is a NATO member, but under Orban it has refused to send arms to the neighbouring Ukraine. "Hungary’s sovereignty and inviolability of its democratic processes are not negotiable." Magyar stated that adhering to these principles was a minimum requirement for meaningful bilateral cooperation. (Reporting and editing by David Holmes, Topra Chopra and Togely Chopra; Reporting by Gergely szakacs)
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As it approaches the Atlantic archipelagos, Hurricane Erin is bringing rough seas.
Residents of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos were bracing themselves for the first Atlantic hurricane of the season, Category 4 Erin. It had strengthened over the weekend as it swept through the Caribbean. Erin is yet to cause any significant damage or landfall. National Hurricane Center of the United States (NHC) stated that Erin would strengthen a bit on Monday, but will bypass northern Atlantic islands. The storm will probably remain a major hurricane until the middle of this week but avoid Bermuda and the U.S. coastline. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 225 kph (140 mph) on Monday, 1500 GMT. It was circling north of Hispaniola. The strength of the storm fluctuated throughout the weekend. It rose on Saturday to Category 5 (the highest level on the Saffir-Simpson Scale), before dropping back down to Category 4 in the late hours of Sunday. The NHC stated that Erin's wind field would result in rough conditions on the ocean over most of the western Atlantic. It said it would become larger than the current tropical storm force winds, which extend up to 230 mile (370 km) away from its center. Erin, the fifth named storm in the Atlantic Season of 2025 and the first hurricane to reach the category, is expected to make landfall on the coast. Last October, Hurricane Milton was the last Atlantic storm that reached Category 5 intensity. Dominican Republic placed its northern coast under alert last weekend but there were no reports of major damage. Authorities in Turks and Caicos (an overseas British territory) have suspended services on the island's largest island and warned residents to prepare for evacuation. The Bahamas' Meteorology Department said that the southeast of the islands, including Turks and Caicos were experiencing tropical storms and that boats shouldn't go out at sea until the end the week. It said that the seas "could become extremely rough and hazardous during the swells". The NHC warned that strong currents will be sweeping across the east coasts of Canada and the U.S. in the next few days. BMS Meteorologist Andrew Siffert said Erin could pass off-shore along Canada's Maritime Provinces, without causing heavy rain. He called this a "gray swan event". He warned that sustained winds could increase the risk of fires.
Woodside Posts 24% Drop in First-Half Profit
Australia's Woodside Energy recorded a 24% fall in its first-half profit on Tuesday, mainly due to lower average realized prices and depreciation costs associated with its Sangomar oil project in Senegal.
The company's average realized price for its products was $61.8 per barrel of oil equivalent during the first half, compared with $62.6 pboe last year.
Meanwhile, production costs, depreciation and amortization related to the Sangomar project came in at $773 million during the period.
The oil and gas giant reported an underlying net profit after tax of $1.25 billion for the six months ended June 30, compared with $1.63 billion last year and in line with Visible Alpha's consensus estimates.
It declared an interim dividend of 53 cents per share, lower than 69 cents declared last year.
(Reuters - Reporting by Himanshi Akhand and Sneha Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Alan Barona)