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Yellen faces difficult road on China's huge overproduction issue

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen arrived in China's southern factory center of Guangzhou on Thursday with a hard message to Chinese authorities: you're producing too much of whatever, particularly clean energy items, and the world can't absorb it.

China is letting loose a flood of electric vehicles (EVs),. batteries, solar panels, semiconductors and other manufactured. products into worldwide markets, the result of years of huge. federal government subsidies and weak need in the house. Worldwide costs for. many items are tanking, pushing producers in other nations.

We see a growing threat of money-losing firms that are. going to need to sell their production somewhere, a senior. U.S. Treasury official stated of overproduction in essential Chinese. sectors.

In a series of meetings with leading Chinese financial authorities. from Friday through Monday, Yellen will seek to communicate her view. that the excess production is unhealthy for China and that there. is a growing drumbeat of issue about it in the U.S., Europe,. Japan, Mexico and other significant economies.

The official, who spoke on condition of privacy, likewise stated. Yellen would explain: If there are trade actions around the. world, it's not an anti-China thing, it's a reaction to their. policies.

But Beijing appears to be doubling down on purchasing more. producing capacity in preferred high-technology sectors, a. stance that is likewise significantly at odds with Europe.

I do think the phase is set for renewed tensions with. China, stated Brad Setser, a previous U.S. trade and Treasury. authorities.

Setser added that Yellen's warnings about Chinese. overproduction may be an initial step by the Biden. administration towards brand-new tariffs or other trade barriers on. Chinese EVs, batteries and other items.

En path to Guangzhou, Yellen decreased to state whether she. would raise the threat of new tariffs in her meetings in. Guangzhou and Beijing with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and. Guangdong Province Guv Wang Weizhong, who has likewise presided. over numerous billions of dollars worth of current new. jobs.

However she said the Biden administration was identified to. establish American supply chains in EVs, solar energy and other. tidy energy products with investment tax credits and would not. dismiss other possible ways in which we would safeguard them.

In March, China's leadership vowed to follow through on. President Xi Jinping's brand-new mantra of releasing brand-new efficient. forces in China by investing in developing technology. markets consisting of EVs, brand-new products, commercial spaceflight. and life sciences - locations where many U.S. companies hold benefits.

Yellen will likewise argue that China would be much better off. focusing spending on supporting households and boosting. chronically weak consumer spending.

FACTORY FIRST

The results of China's previous financial investment binges are. staggering.

Including EVs and combustion-engine vehicles, China by the end. of 2022 had the capacity to produce 43 million cars. yearly, but its plant utilisation rate - a procedure closely. linked to success - was just under 55%, according to data. from the China Automobile Association.

Costs Russo, the Shanghai-based founder and CEO of advisory. company Automobility, estimated that this equates to excess auto. production capacity of about 10 million lorries a year, or. approximately two-thirds of North American car output in 2022.

And brand-new entrants are still coming into a progressively. cut-throat Chinese EV market. Mobile phone maker Xiaomi on. Tuesday introduced sales of its stylish Speed Ultra 7 EV, drawing. a price quote from Citi analysts that each unit offered would lose. $ 10,000.

SOLAR SUPREMACY

The circumstance in China's solar panel sector may be even worse,. where overproduction pressed costs down 42% in 2015 to levels. 60% below the cost of similar U.S.-made items. Major. Chinese manufacturers are continuing to construct factories, backed by. provincial and regional aids.

At the end of 2023, China had the capacity to build 861. gigawatts of solar modules per year, more than double the global. overall installed capacity of 390 million gigawatts. Another. 500-600 gigawatts of yearly capacity is anticipated to come online. this year-- adequate to supply all worldwide demand through 2032,. according to energy research study company Wood Mackenzie.

Chinese authorities are expected to push back and argue that. the excess capability arises from an unexpected decline in. demand following a home crisis and a rocky exit from. COVID-19, said Scott Kennedy, a China economics specialist at the. Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

I can predict a conversation that walks around in circles,. he included.

(source: Reuters)