Philippines' more assertive hand in dispute over South China Sea tests Beijing

In the Presidential Situation Room in February of last year, senior Philippines officials were faced with a difficult decision. Coast guard officers displayed photos that they said were of a military grade laser pointed by China at a Philippines vessel in disputed waters a few days before.

Eduardo Ano was the national security advisor and chairman of the South China Sea Taskforce. He had to decide if he wanted to risk Beijing's anger by releasing the photos, or if he didn't want to aggravate his giant neighbor.

The retired general said to the officials, "The public deserves know." "Publish the photos." The meeting, which was previously kept secret, marked a crucial moment as Manila launched a publicity campaign to draw attention to the escalating territorial dispute in South China Sea. Ramming of vessels, the use of water cannons, and diplomatic protests that followed have sharply increased tensions.

"It was a pivotal moment and the birthing of transparency policy," National Security Council spokeswoman Jonathan Malaya told . Malaya attended the meeting and recounted what happened. The goal was to impose severe consequences on Beijing's image, reputation and standing. Malaya claimed that President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. had instructed officials to "civilianise, and internationalise", the dispute. They achieved this by embedding foreign reporters on missions and using the coastguard. He said that this was an important part of building international support to the Philippines because foreign governments are also our audience.

This report on the Philippines' policy change and its implications is based upon interviews with 20 Philippine officials and Chinese diplomats, as well as regional analysts and analysts. The analysts said that the publicizing of China's actions in conjunction with Manila's strengthened military alliance with the U.S. had limited Beijing's ability escalate maritime issues, but increased the risk of Chinese economic retaliation as well as U.S. participation. The meeting in February 2023 took place just days after Marcos gave the U.S. the right to access four additional military bases within the Philippines. This rekindled defence ties which had been weakened under Rodrigo Duterte.

"China has very few options for escalation without invoking the U.S. - Philippines mutual defence treaty or risking a war between Chinese and U.S. troops," said Ian Storey of Singapore's Yusof Ishak Institute.

Marcos also launched a diplomatic offensive to gain support from countries like Canada, Germany and India for the Philippines.

Oil and gas are abundant in the South China Sea. Around $3 trillion worth of trade is carried out through the South China Sea every year. The U.S.'s access to Philippine bases may be important in a conflict over Taiwan. China, whose claims over most of the sea have been invalidated by an International Tribunal in 2016, alleges that Philippine vessels illegally invade waters around disputed shoals. Marcos will take office in June of 2022. The Chinese government has warned him not to misjudge the situation.

Jay Batongbacal, a Philippine lawyer and legal scholar, said: "This is poker. This is brinkmanship." "Brinkmanship" is pushing things to the limit, to see who will lose their nerve. Poker is a game that involves bluffing, deception and one could do both at once.

China's Foreign Ministry responded to ' questions by saying that the Philippines was stoking tensions at sea with "provocative acts in an effort to infringe China's territorial and maritime sovereignty".

China said it would protect its interests and resolve the conflict peacefully by dialogue.

A spokesperson for the U.S. State Department said that Manila's transparency campaign had been successful in bringing greater attention to China’s "disregard of international law" as well as its actions which put Philippine servicemen at risk.

The spokesperson refused to comment on the possibility of a U.S. involvement in military operations, but did say that the U.S. was prepared to support the Philippines should it face economic coercion by China.

"AWAKE AT NIGHT" The conflict concerns Scarborough Shoal (also known as Second Thomas Shoal) and Scarborough Shoal (also known as Scarborough Shoal), where the Philippine Navy maintains an rusting BRP Sierra Madre warship that was beached by Manila in 1999, to support its sovereignty claims. It is manned by a small crew. Chinese ships attempted to block resupply mission by encircling Philippine vessel and firing water cannons which in March broke a boat's glass, injuring the crew. China claimed to have acted professionally and lawfully. Manila released video footage of the incident. In February, Philippine vessels recorded their Chinese counterparts erecting a barricade across the Scarborough Shoal entrance. Both sides have traded accusations this week over a collision that involved their vessels near Second Thomas Shoal.

Jay Tarriela, spokesman for the Philippine Coast Guard, taunts Chinese officials on X and state media. He also posts drone footage of maritime conflicts. He said that if he had been doing something wrong, he would have been closed down.

Tarriela claimed that the transparency campaign had been successful in galvanizing support for Manila, while China's threshold of aggression has not changed despite the increase in incidents.

He said, "They still rely on their water cannons... They are stuck with this kind of tactic."

Center for Strategic and International Studies reported in January that the number of Chinese ships around Second Thomas Shoal, during Philippine resupply mission has increased from an average of one ship in 2021 to 14 in 2023. According to Philippine officials, China's Coast Guard came within metres from the Sierra Madre last month and seized supplies that were airdropped for troops stationed at that location. China's navy, which patrolled the area, claimed that Filipino soldiers had pointed guns at their coast guard. Manila, however, stated they were just holding their weapons.

Officials in the Philippines say that they are concerned about a deadly accident escalating into hostilities.

Jose Manuel Romualdez told that "that keeps a lot us awake at nights".

Manila wants to avoid the economic pressures it experienced a decade earlier, when Chinese customs delays caused Philippine bananas rotting on Chinese docks.

China accounted for 14.8% or $11 billion of the Philippines' total exports in 2023. China is the Philippines top importer, mostly refined petroleum products and electronic goods.

Romualdez stated that Manila hopes China will "see the importance of continuing our economic activities while trying to peacefully solve the issue".

Edcel John Ibarra is a political science professor at the University of the Philippines. He said Marcos could provoke China to "a tougher approach", including non-tariff restrictions and tourism restrictions. He cited changes China made in May, which allow the coast guard to hold foreigners without trial and for 60 days.

Manila's intensity has shocked its neighbors. Vietnam and Malaysia have also had maritime disputes with Beijing. They have been more careful about the information they have released from their skirmishes.

One Asian diplomat who did not wish to be identified said: "We're all watching and talking between ourselves." "The Philippines has developed a new strategy to stand up to Beijing on a point where there is friction."

Marcos stated in December that diplomacy had not achieved much with China, and urged Southeast Asia to "come up with a new paradigm".

China's official media has expressed dissatisfaction with the transparency campaign.

Global Times, a state-sponsored newspaper, said in a May op-ed that the Philippines had "played the victim in order to deceive the international public opinion". Manila's strategy has included a key element of solidifying the U.S. Alliance. In May of last year, both countries clarified that their defence treaty covers the coastguard. Marcos took part in an unprecedented summit, with his U.S. counterparts and Japanese counterparts, on April.

An official from the United States who was involved in U.S. China talks said that Chinese officials complained behind closed doors about these diplomatic breakthroughs, adding that Beijing is "feeling squeezed".

Zha Daojiong of the School of International Studies at Peking University says that China is in a deadlock and will continue to "essentially react" to flashpoints such as Second Thomas Shoal.

He said, "I guess that by responding to the Philippines action they want to maintain the message that the shoal in question is still in dispute."

(source: Reuters)