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United States imports of Chinese used cooking oil set for new record, future uncertain

U.S. imports of utilized cooking oil (UCO) from China are set to strike a record in the months ahead, even as regulatory uncertainty casts doubts over longerterm potential customers of a trade that boomed in 2015, according to market participants.

U.S. demand for UCO, a feedstock for biofuels like eco-friendly diesel, has actually surged as federal and state governments launched rewards to support the market as they aim to decarbonize transportation. That triggered such a crazy rush to construct brand-new sustainable diesel plants that U.S. capability more than doubled from 2021 to 282,000 barrels per day in 2023, according to federal government data.

The fast rise turned the U.S. from a net exporter of UCO till 2021, to a net importer considering that 2022. U.S. imports went beyond 1.36 million metric tons (mt) in 2015, up from about 400,000 mt in 2022, the data revealed.

Need for UCO from U.S. renewable diesel manufacturers has grown much faster than domestic supply, said Duane Dunlap, owner of renewables consultancy DNS Enterprises.

The supply gap has been easily filled by Chinese exporters, who needed a brand-new outlet as demand from their top buyers in Europe avoided mid-2023 in the middle of grievances of synthetically low costs that led to a European Union examination. The EU started imposing tariffs on Chinese biodiesel imports this month.

Imports from China comprised half of all the UCO purchased by U.S. refiners in 2015, compared to a 0.1% share in 2022, custom-mades data revealed. This year through June, China represented roughly 60% of the roughly 1 million mt of UCO imported by the U.S., the information revealed.

EU tariffs will likely raise UCO shipments from China to the U.S. even further in the months ahead, two senior biofuel traders in Singapore said.

If it is not desired in Europe, they will send it to the U.S., stated Adam Schubert, senior associate at fuel consultancy Stillwater Associates.

COMBINED NEED INDICATES

The U.S. biofuels market is set to undergo significant changes next year as the government prepares to shift from a. program that rewards manufacturers based on output volumes to a. qualitative system that will award tax credits based on the. fuel's carbon intensity.

Considering that UCO is otherwise a waste product, its carbon footprint. is lower than alternative biodiesel feedstocks, such as soybean. oil and canola oil. That makes UCO more attractive for. producers.

However, lobbyists representing U.S. farm-states have called. for an extension of the existing tax credits as costs for their. commodities have actually slumped under the weight of lower-cost UCO. imports. A bipartisan expense to extend the volume-based system. through next year was presented in the U.S. House of. Representatives last month.

Comparable efforts have resulted in multiple extensions of the. present system over the past decade. The credits were set to. expire at the end of 2022, before the Inflation Decrease Act. extended them through completion of this year.

Farmers' groups and lawmakers have also raised issues over. claims that some Chinese UCO supply might be polluted with. virgin palm oil, an item linked to logging.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency verified previously. this month that it has been auditing supply chains of at least. two U.S. eco-friendly fuel producers amid concerns of fraudulent. feedstock use.

U.S. trade policy might also move drastically following. the November presidential election in the nation, which is. creating uncertainty for Chinese UCO exporters, one of the. Singapore-based traders said.

Aside from the recent boom in UCO trade, other relations. between the world's two most significant economies have been significantly. strained recently. Both sides have lobbed tit-for-tat. tariffs on each other's imports considering that 2017.

Republican nominee Donald Trump's vice governmental running. mate J.D. Vance last month called China the greatest risk. facing the United States.

Another significant upheaval for the international UCO trade will come. from Beijing's commonly expected statement of Sustainable. Air Travel Fuel (SAF) production targets. Since SAF also uses UCO. as a feedstock, China's push into that market might dry up its. UCO export capacity in about 5 years, one of the traders in. Singapore said.

There is a great deal of uncertainty today surrounding future. policymaking, however as long as the U.S. does not ban it-- which we. view as unlikely in the short-term - UCO imports will grow, said. Zander Capozzola, vice president of renewable fuels at AEGIS. Hedging.

It's simply a concern of where these imports will come. from.

(source: Reuters)