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Brazil diesel imports are at risk due to a rise in global prices and a widening Petrobras price gap

The gap between international diesel prices and Brazil's state owned oil company Petrobras has reached record levels due to a recent rally in international diesel prices. Industry executives have said that independent importers are delaying purchases because of this.

Petrobras diesel prices were $0.79 per liter less than import prices according to Abicom. This was despite the fact that local production had reached its maximum.

Sergio Araujo, Abicom's President, said that Brazilian refineries are currently operating at close to capacity.

Brazil imports about one-quarter of the diesel it consumes.

Petrobras, which is part of Brazil's Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva, has been working to reduce diesel prices since the beginning of the U.S. - Israel conflict with Iran. They have done this by boosting the domestic supply, and by participating in the Brazilian president's subsidy program to combat inflation before the October election. Lula da Silva wants to run for another term.

Petrobras' profitability is hurt when it imports diesel at higher prices abroad than what it charges domestically. This squeeze on margins also reduces the incentive for other importers.

In recent weeks, international oil prices have risen. Brent crude reached $108 per barrel on Tuesday. This is up from $93 at the beginning of the month. U.S. Diesel futures also hit a record due to Middle East conflict and Russian export restrictions.

LOCALIZED DISRUPTIONS

As the planting of the summer crop is underway, the Rio Grande do Sul agriculture federation, Farsul, reported to Brazil's fuel regulator ANP that there were delays and restrictions in diesel deliveries for farmers in the southern states.

According to a person who works with fuel distributors, customers from neighboring countries that depend more on imported diesel are seeking it in Rio Grande do Sul, which could be straining the local supply.

ANP stated that diesel deliveries were proceeding as usual and that it had not yet identified any risk of a supply shortage in Rio Grande do Sul.

Petrobras stated that its deliveries were proceeding "as planned" and that all volumes contracted are being delivered.

Localized fuel shortages and bottlenecks in the logistics system are similar to what was seen earlier this year, but widespread shortages of fuel remain unlikely.

Bruno Cordeiro is a StoneX market intelligence specialist. He said, "The market is tighter, but there are no concerns about supply disruptions."

(source: Reuters)