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US consumer confidence slumps to record lows in April; inflation expectation rise
U.S. consumer confidence fell to a new record low in April, as consumers shrugged off the ceasefire in the?war with Iran and remained focused on 'the inflation fallout of this conflict. Consumer Sentiment Index, a measure of consumer sentiment published by the University of Michigan's?Surveys?of Consumers?, fell to a record low of 49.8 in December. This was an improvement over the reading of 47.6 earlier in the month. The economists polled predicted the index to be at 48. In March, the index was 53.3. It was a decline in sentiment across all political parties and among investors in the stock exchange. The Iran War has caused disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This has led to a rise in oil prices and, ultimately, the price of gasoline and diesel. Other commodities such as fertilizers, aluminum and petrochemicals, which will affect consumers soon, have also risen in price. After the beginning of the war, on 28 February, Tehran closed the Strait. This week, President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely with Iran. Joanne Hsu is the director of the Surveys of Consumers. She said that the Iran conflict seems to affect consumer opinions primarily by shocks in gasoline prices and possibly other prices. "Military and diplomatic developments which do not ease supply constraints or reduce energy prices will likely not 'buoy' consumers. GASOLINE PRICES AND DIESEL PRICE INCREASE Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that diesel prices are well above $5 per gallon. The national average retail price of gasoline has been above $4 a gallons this month. A poll conducted by /Ipsos on Friday revealed that a majority of Americans blamed Trump's Republican Party for the soaring gasoline prices. Diesel prices will likely increase the price of goods transported via road. While the correlation between consumer spending and sentiment was weak, economists expected that households, particularly those with lower incomes, would reduce their consumption. Grace Zwemmer is an economist from Oxford Economics in the United States. She said that she expects higher gas prices to slow down consumption growth. The impact of higher gas prices will primarily be felt by lower- and middle-income families, as a greater share of their total spending is spent on gasoline. In March, the survey's measure for consumer expectations of inflation in the coming year was 3.8%. This?month it jumped to 4,7%. The reading for April was higher than the levels of 2024, and well above the range between 2.3%-3.0% seen in the years leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic. Consumers' expectations of inflation over the next five-year period increased to 3.5%, up from 3.2% in last month. The survey by S&P Global showed that higher inflation expectations were added to the survey on Thursday. It showed that a measure of the prices charged by companies for their goods or services rose in April to its highest level in almost four years, strengthening the expectations in the financial markets. Heather Long, Chief Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said that "more pain" will be felt as higher transportation costs for food, appliances and toys are passed on to consumers. "Sentiment will not improve until the Strait of Hormuz opens and there is an end to the war." Reporting by Lucia Mutikani, Washington; Editing and proofreading by Chizu Nomiyama & Matthew Lewis
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US and EU Deepen Cooperation on Critical Minerals with an Eye to Broader Agreement
As part of an 'overall Western push to loosen China’s grip on materials vital to advanced manufacturing, the U.S. & European Union deepened their cooperation?on critical mineral?on Friday. U.S. Secretary Marco Rubio signed a Memorandum of Understanding with European Union Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic for a partnership to produce and secure critical minerals. Rubio didn't mention China, but said that the preliminary agreement reached with Brussels showed that Western allies are becoming more aware of the importance of supply chain and minerals to their economic success. China has used geo-economic pressure to 'chokehold' the processing of minerals. It has sometimes curtailed exports, lowered prices, and undermined other countries ability to diversify their sources of materials for semiconductors, electric cars, and advanced weapons. "The concentration of these resources in one or two locations is unacceptable. Before signing the memo, Rubio stated that we need diversity in our supply chain. U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer will meet separately with Sefcovic on Friday. She announced a separate plan to "coordinate" trade policies for critical minerals. This is to address the non-market policies that they call have distorted critical mineral supply chains. Greer stated that Washington and Brussels will?explore ways to strengthen critical domestic minerals industries and downstream sector critical for industrial competitiveness, by using trade measures such as border-adjusted pricing floors. Sefcovic, who spoke to reporters at the State Department, said that the agreements will strengthen the transatlantic relationships and accelerate their work towards their shared goals. "I completely agree with Mr. Rubio that the real test now will be the implementation of this project." How can we turn these agreements that we sign into tangible, concrete projects for our business operators?" 'PERVASIVE -NON-MARKET POLICIES and PRACTICES" Washington and Brussels announced their intention to develop an Action Plan in February, when U.S. vice president JD Vance revealed plans to create a preferred trade bloc for essential minerals with coordinated price floors. Washington has already signed similar plans of action with Japan and Mexico. According to the U.S./EU Action Plan, it was important to?address?pervasive nonmarket policies and practices that have left critical mineral supply chains in market-oriented countries vulnerable to a variety of disruptions including economic coercion. The plan stated that the longer-range vision was to develop a plurilateral partnership with like-minded partners in order to boost supply chain resilience for critical minerals. It said that the U.S. will be discussing various mechanisms and measures, including coordinated trade policies, mechanisms based on benchmark prices, and price gap subsidies or offtake agreements. The parties also agreed to explore other possible measures including standards for mining and processing of critical minerals, trade or recycling in these minerals, technical and regulatory co-operation, investment promotion and screening, and coordinated rapid responses to prevent disruptions or crises. It said that stockpiling is another measure. Reporting by Andrea Shalal, Simon Lewis and Chizu Nomiyama; editing by Paul Simao and Chizu Simao
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Merz offers sanctions relief in Iran peace deal; other EU leaders cautious
On Friday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that the European Union could ease sanctions against Tehran as part a comprehensive deal that would end the war in Iran. However, other EU leaders struck a more cautious tone. In response to Iran's human rights violations, its nuclear activities, and its military support of Russia, the 27-nation EU imposed sanctions against Iran over the past few years. These included travel bans, asset freezes, and travel restrictions for senior officials. U.S. officials suggest that a comprehensive agreement?covering Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and the reopening of Strait of Hormuz, could bring about a lasting end to U.S. and Israeli war with Tehran beyond the current ceasefire. Merz, after an EU summit in Cyprus, said that the bloc would gradually ease sanctions against Iran if a comprehensive deal was reached. European leaders are largely absent from the current Middle East conflict. But some European officials see the EU's sanctions as an opportunity to get involved in a diplomatic resolution. Merz told journalists after the Nicosia Summit that "the easing of sanctions could be part of a broader process". He said that no one had objected to the summit's deliberations. "It's, in a sense, part of our contribution to this process, and hopefully lead to a lasting ceasefire." After the summit's conclusion, European Council President Antonio Costa told a press briefing: "It is too early to discuss any type of sanctions." Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, said that sanctions could only be lifted after Iran showed clear signs of a fundamental change in its course. She said at the same press conference that "we believe sanctions relief should be contingent on verification of deescalation and progress in?the international efforts to contain its nuclear threat?, as well as a change in?the repression against its own people." Reporting by Bart Meijer; writing by Ingrid Melander; editing by Hugh Lawson.
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Gold still in the lead for first decline week in five
Gold was up on Friday, but on course for its first weekly loss in a period of five weeks. Markets were on edge due to inflation fears and the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. - Iran war. At 11:01 am, spot gold was up by 0.7% to $4,724.19 an ounce. ET (1501 GMT), after rising more than 1 percent earlier in the day, is down over 2% this week. U.S. gold futures for June delivery rose 0.4% ?to $4,741.30. Gold prices fell throughout the month of March, as the U.S. - Iran war strengthened the dollar. This also fueled fears about higher inflation and reduced demand for the precious metal. The conflict is at a standstill. Military strikes have decreased, but the Strait of Ormuz remains closed. Investors are left to fill in the gaps or react to Donald Trump's comments, which have tempered expectations of a peace deal with threats to resume the conflict. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, who was due in Pakistani capital Islamabad to discuss proposals to restart peace talks with the United States on Friday, was not expected to meet U.S. negotiating teams, according to Pakistani government officials. Separately Israel and Lebanon extended a ceasefire of three weeks. The market is currently in a positive net situation. "Energy prices are also falling," said Daniel Pavilonis senior market strategist at RJO Futures. The oil prices fell on Friday but have risen this week as a result of the failure of a second round of talks between Iran and the U.S., and Iran's display of control over the Strait of Hormuz. Increased oil prices can cause inflation and higher interest rates. Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, said that gold fell (this week). This was because the oil price rose, and expectations for higher rates, the dollars, and yields were all correlated. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 1.6% in the past week, increasing the cost of owning 'gold. Meanwhile, the dollar is on course to make its first weekly increase in three weeks, making gold more expensive for other currency holders. Silver spot rose 0.6% per ounce to $75.86, platinum gained 0.7% to 2,019.53 dollars and palladium gained a 2.1% gain to $1,499.41. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
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Ghana mineworkers warn that local outsourcing rules will reduce wages and jobs
The Ghanaian union of mineworkers warned that it would continue to fight against a government policy requiring international companies to hire local firms to be mining contractors. This is despite the fact that many large miners had already adhered to a regulation introduced last year. Abdul Moomin Gbana told reporters on Friday that foreign companies offer more job security and pay higher wages than local firms. He also said that local contractors provide lower wages and less job stability. The union, which represents around 14,000 workers, has vowed to resist the policy in any way possible, including through strikes and protests. Africa's largest gold producer, AngloGold Ashanti and Newmont, has ordered that all mining activities, such as blasting, loading and hauling, be transferred to local contractors before December 2026, or else face sanctions. This is part of reforms aimed at increasing local participation. Surface mining is to be done by firms owned by Ghanaians, and underground mining by companies that have at least 50% local ownership. Mining executives have criticized the policy, calling it anti-business and illegal. They claim that this policy is in conflict with Ghana's mining laws, which allow leaseholders to decide how mining will be conducted. PREVIOUS RESISTANCE FAILED Gbana stated that Ghana's miners failed to stop Gold Fields from shifting to local contract mining in 2017, and 2018 despite a legal challenge. Gbana said that this opened up the market to more companies. He said that the mineworkers union was not consulted about the current regulations. He accused the authorities of ignoring labour concerns. He said that "the growing reliance on contracted mining is reversing the hard-won labor protections", adding that these changes would have "a huge impact on workers." According to a Friday letter, the group petitioned both the mining regulator as well as the Lands Ministry. The letter stated that "Any attempt to continue with this policy under its current form would be met with strong coordinated and sustained opposition." WAGE GAP FUELS WORKER CONCERNS Gbana stated that local contractors pay lower wages, and offer less?job stability. Some workers have already raised concerns about unpaid statutory deductions such as pensions or provident funds. A staff member of a local contractor said that contractors typically earn 50% less than mine operators in terms of basic pay. Gbana stated that even if the staffing levels are maintained, wages would be reduced and benefits would also decrease, which will erode gains made over years of collective bargaining. He also said that some local contractors including E&P Rabotec BCM Electrochem and Rocksure had failed to meet worker's expectations. Nina Lamptey said that Rocksure pays all statutory payments to the government and employees, including salaries, pensions, and wages. She also said that the company pays according to its contract. E&P and Rabotec did not respond immediately to comments. Minerals Commission plans to tighten up its oversight of contractors in order to stop undercutting that drives wages and standards down. Chief Executive Isaac Tandoh stated that miners are known to cut rates for local contractors. He cited a number of cases where the cost per ton dropped from $3 to less than $2.50, leaving workers in a worse position. He added that the government agency will use regulations to establish clear pricing benchmarks and to support local firms by providing guidance and joint-ventures, and that unions are right to advocate for the welfare and rights of workers. Maxwell Akalaare Adombila reported from Dakar, and Jessica Donati edited the story.
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Spanish watchdog launches further investigations into energy companies over blackout
The Spanish antitrust and energy regulator CNMC 'has added more power 'companies to the list 'of firms 'being investigated in relation to last year's unprecedented Blackouts in Spain and Portugal.' It said on Friday. The CNMC launched formal investigations last week after?finding?evidence that certain power sector rules had been?breached for extended periods of time, potentially contributing to the crippling 'outage in April 2025. The investigation was then announced to include the?grid operators Red Electrica MC> and Naturgy MC> as well as Iberdrola MC> and Repsol. It has now opened sanctions proceedings against Engie Cartagena, TotalEnergies Clientes and?others. Engie and Total didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. Cani Fernandez, the head of CNMC, had said previously that 'the most serious violations could result in a fine up to 60 million Euros. It said that the sanction procedures have a maximum period of nine to 18 months, depending on the severity of the offense. (Reporting from Gdansk by Joao Mauricio, with additional reporting by America Hernandez and editing by Andrei Khalip.)
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US and European stocks are swayed as markets look for signs of Middle East progress
Wall Street stocks were mixed on Friday, and European shares were also lower. Investors were watching the fragile U.S.Iran truce as well as weighing up corporate earnings with the downbeat guidance due to war-related price shocks. The Nasdaq was boosted by the strong performance of Intel's tech shares. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 had a more modest green. The Dow was in negative territory. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and blue-chip Dow were all set to post nominal gains for the week. However, the Dow's blue-chip index was expected to decline since last Friday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq remained near their record highs. Jay Hatfield CEO of Infrastructure Capital Management, New York, said that earnings have been the dominant topic for the past two weeks. "And after that, we'll be focusing on the end of the war." Hatfield stated that "Yesterday, the market sold off due to war headlines but then rallied back." Hatfield said that today, the market is not up to date on the positive news that the Pakistani foreign minister was in the country. According to Pakistani sources, peace talks between the United States of America and Iran may resume soon in Pakistan. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi is due to arrive there on Friday evening. According to U.S. president Donald Trump, the Israel-Lebanon truce was also extended by three more weeks after a high-level White House meeting. Oil prices?were volatile, as supply concerns outweighed optimism about potential U.S. Iran peace talks. U.S. crude dropped 1.12% to $94.78 per barrel. Brent was down to $104.70 a barrel, a drop of 0.36% for the day. SOLID CORPORATE RECORDS MARKED BY DOUR GUIDANCE The first-quarter reporting season is in full swing, with 139 companies from the S&P 500 reporting. Eighty-one percent of those companies have exceeded earnings expectations. According to LSEG, analysts now expect S&P 500 earnings to grow 16.1% year-over-year, up from 14.4% projected at the beginning of the third quarter. On analyst conference calls, however, CEOs have been providing more and more negative guidance because of the escalating fuel prices resulting from war in Iran. Procter & Gamble, a consumer products company, warned in its earnings call on Friday that the war-related shock to energy prices will affect its profit by approximately $1 billion. Amazon, Alphabet and Meta Platforms are among the companies that will report earnings next week. Exxon Mobil, Chevron and other oil supermajors are scheduled to report on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 151.44, or 0.31% to 49,157.80. The S&P 500 rose '22.81, or 0.32% to 7,131.21. And the Nasdaq Composite gained 197.27, or 0.81% to 24,635.41. Investors worried about a possible inflation shock due to disruptions in energy supplies caused by Middle East turmoil. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 2.05 points or 0.19% to 1,069.36. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell by 0.49% while Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 index dropped 10.77 points or 0.44%. Emerging?markets stocks gained 12.17 points or 0.76% to 1,611.48. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan closed up by 0.77% to 825.44. Japan's Nikkei gained 575.95 or 0.97% to 59,716.18. Investors were on edge as war uncertainty weighed down on the dollar. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies, including the yen, the euro and others) fell by?0.23%, while the euro rose by 0.26%, reaching $1.1713. The dollar fell 0.19% against the Japanese yen to 159.41. Bitcoin gained 0.09% in value to $78,994.26. Ethereum fell 0.47% to 2,315.37. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 1.7 basis points from 4,323% at late Thursday to?4,306%. The 30-year bond rate?fell by 1 basis point from 4,918% to 4.9081% late Thursday. The yield on the 2-year note, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve fell by 4.3 basis points, to 3.783% from 3.825% at late Thursday. The Middle East turmoil continued to raise inflation concerns, which led to gold's advance. Spot gold increased by 0.81%, to $4.730.84 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures increased 0.03% to $4.70670 an ounce.
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US and EU announce plan to coordinate trade policies for critical minerals
On 'Friday, the United States and European Union released an action plan aimed at coordinating trade policies and measures on critical minerals supply chains with a view of concluding a plurilateral binding agreement in future. The plan doesn't mention China specifically, but is part of an broader effort by the Trump administration?to work with Western allies to loosen China’s grip on critical materials for advanced manufacturing. China has used its chokehold over the 'processing of minerals' as geo-economic leverage. At times, it has curtailed exports, suppressed prices, and undermined other countries ability to diversify the sources of materials that are used to manufacture semiconductors, electronic vehicles, and advanced weapons. U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer said that the U.S., and EU, shared a common commitment to "tackling the non-market policies and practices which?have distorted critical minerals supply chain." Washington and Brussels would 'examine how trade measures such as border-adjusted price floors could strengthen critical minerals industries in the United States and downstream sectors that are critical to industry competitiveness. Reporting by Andrea Shalal
US consumer sentiment falls to near 4-year low in April
A?survey released on Friday showed that U.S. consumers' sentiment dropped to its lowest level in nearly four years during April, as inflation fears were stoked by the war with Iran. The Consumer Sentiment Index of the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers fell to 49.8 in April, its lowest reading since June 2022. This was an improvement over the 47.6 reading reported earlier in the month. The economists polled had predicted the index to be at 48. It was 53.3 in March.
After the announcement of a two-week ceasefire and the lowering of?gas prices, sentiment has recovered a small portion of its losses from the beginning of the month, said Joanne Hsu, director of Surveys of Consumers.
The?Iran?conflict seems to influence consumer views primarily by shocks in gasoline prices and possibly other prices. Military and diplomatic developments which do not ease supply constraints or reduce energy prices will likely not buoy consumers. The U.S. and Israel war against Iran has caused disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This has pushed up the prices of commodities such as oil, fertilizers, petrochemicals, and aluminum.
Tehran closed the Strait effectively after the start of the war on February 28. This week, President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely with Iran despite a 'U.S. The Navy Blockade of Iranian Ports remained?in effect. This month, the survey's measure for consumer expectations of inflation in the coming year dropped from 4.8% to 4.7%. In March, it was at 3.8%.
Consumers expect inflation to rise from 3.2% in March to 3.5% by the end of next year. Lucia Mutikani reported; Chizu Nomiyama edited.
(source: Reuters)