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US consumer confidence slumps to record lows in April; inflation expectation rise

U.S. consumer confidence fell to a new record low in April, as consumers shrugged off the ceasefire in the?war with Iran and remained focused on 'the inflation fallout of this conflict.

Consumer Sentiment Index, a measure of consumer sentiment published by the University of Michigan's?Surveys?of Consumers?, fell to a record low of 49.8 in December. This was an improvement over the reading of 47.6 earlier in the month.

The economists polled predicted the index to be at 48. In March, the index was 53.3. It was a decline in sentiment across all political parties and among investors in the stock exchange. The Iran War has caused disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This has led to a rise in oil prices and, ultimately, the price of gasoline and diesel. Other commodities such as fertilizers, aluminum and petrochemicals, which will affect consumers soon, have also risen in price.

After the beginning of the war, on 28 February, Tehran closed the Strait. This week, President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely with Iran.

Joanne Hsu is the director of the Surveys of Consumers. She said that the Iran conflict seems to affect consumer opinions primarily by shocks in gasoline prices and possibly other prices. "Military and diplomatic developments which do not ease supply constraints or reduce energy prices will likely not 'buoy' consumers.

GASOLINE PRICES AND DIESEL PRICE INCREASE

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that diesel prices are well above $5 per gallon. The national average retail price of gasoline has been above $4 a gallons this month. A poll conducted by /Ipsos on Friday revealed that a majority of Americans blamed Trump's Republican Party for the soaring gasoline prices.

Diesel prices will likely increase the price of goods transported via road. While the correlation between consumer spending and sentiment was weak, economists expected that households, particularly those with lower incomes, would reduce their consumption.

Grace Zwemmer is an economist from Oxford Economics in the United States. She said that she expects higher gas prices to slow down consumption growth. The impact of higher gas prices will primarily be felt by lower- and middle-income families, as a greater share of their total spending is spent on gasoline.

In March, the survey's measure for consumer expectations of inflation in the coming year was 3.8%. This?month it jumped to 4,7%. The reading for April was higher than the levels of 2024, and well above the range between 2.3%-3.0% seen in the years leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Consumers' expectations of inflation over the next five-year period increased to 3.5%, up from 3.2% in last month.

The survey by S&P Global showed that higher inflation expectations were added to the survey on Thursday. It showed that a measure of the prices charged by companies for their goods or services rose in April to its highest level in almost four years, strengthening the expectations in the financial markets.

Heather Long, Chief Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said that "more pain" will be felt as higher transportation costs for food, appliances and toys are passed on to consumers. "Sentiment will not improve until the Strait of Hormuz opens and there is an end to the war." Reporting by Lucia Mutikani, Washington; Editing and proofreading by Chizu Nomiyama & Matthew Lewis

(source: Reuters)