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China's crude oil surplus surged in April, as refinery output dipped. Russell

China's crude oil surplus surged in April, as refinery output dipped. Russell

In April, the amount of crude oil that was available in China for storage grew for a second consecutive month. Imports were relatively high while refinery processing declined.

According to calculations based upon official data, China's crude surplus amounted to 1,89 million barrels a day (bpd), the highest since June 2023, and an increase from 1,74 million bpd last March.

China, which is the world's largest crude importer and has been a major buyer of oil, has bought large quantities of discounted oil, mainly from Iran and Russia, in countries that are under Western sanctions.

China does not reveal the volume of crude oil flowing in or out of its strategic and commercial stockspiles. However, an estimate can still be made if you subtract the amount of crude oil that is available through imports and domestic production from the total crude.

According to data released by the government on Monday, refiners processed 14,12 million barrels per day in April. This is down from 14,85 million barrels per day in March, and 1.4% less than one year ago.

Crude imports in April were down from a 19-month high (12.11 million bpd) in March.

Last month, domestic production fell slightly from its 14-year-high of 4,48 million bpd in March.

After subtracting the refinery output of 14,12 million bpd, there is a surplus 1.89 million BPD.

The surplus crude was 880,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the first four quarters of the year. This is up from the 580,000 barrels per day for the first three months.

China's refiners used up their inventories for the first time since 18 months in the first two-month period of 2025. They processed about 30,000 barrels per day more than they could get from crude imports or domestic production.

The massive surpluses of March and April, however, have reversed this earlier trend.

Not all this excess crude has likely been stored, as some is processed in plants that are not included in the official data.

Even if you ignore the gaps in official data, there is no doubt that China imported crude oil at a rate far greater than what it needed to meet its domestic fuel needs in March and in April.

Options

What is the likely trajectory of China's crude oil imports and refinery production in the next few months?

Refiners have more options with the large amount of crude oil surplus that has accumulated in recent months.

China's refineries are known to buy surplus crude oil when prices are low and reduce imports when prices rise too fast or too high.

The increase in imports between March and April is largely due to refiners purchasing Iranian and Russian crude. This was partly because these grades are cheaper than other grades but also partially due to fears that U.S. sanctions against vessels and buyers could be effective.

According to commodity analysts Kpler, China's seaborne exports from Russia reached 1.38 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, and 1.22 millions bpd during March. These were the two strongest months since 1.51million bpd was recorded in October of last year.

Kpler estimated that imports from Iran fell to 743,000 barrels per day (bpd) in April. This was down from 1,39 million bpd, the highest monthly figure since October.

If they can find a way to avoid the U.S. sanction, it's likely Chinese refiners would continue to purchase Russian and Iranian crude.

It would appear that if the volume of crude they can import from these two suppliers is limited, they will have enough in stock to avoid the risk of driving prices up by importing other sources.

These are the views of a columnist who writes for.

(source: Reuters)