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PMI: UAE non-oil businesses grow in May, but the war and Hormuz standoff are weighing on growth.
A business survey released on Wednesday showed that the UAE's private non-oil sector grew only modestly in May, as the war in the area weighed on the output and growth of new businesses. The S&P Global UAE Purchasing Managers' Index, adjusted for season, rose from 52.1 to 52.6 in the month of May. This index is still above 50 which separates growth from contraction. The continued disruption of maritime trade in the UAE had a cascading effect on the economy during May. Export orders fell in May due to both the shipping disruption and the uncertainty about how long the conflict would last, said David Owen, S&P Global Market Intelligence's principal economist. Owen stated that the input?delivery delays were the most significant since the COVID-19 Pandemic peak in April 2020. The survey's average long-term growth rate was still weaker, but the output growth reached a new high in three months. The growth in new business was also modest, and close to the 62-month low of April. Export sales were down again, but at a much slower pace. The subindex of new orders increased to 52.6 from 52.5 in April. The pace of job creation slowed to its lowest level since October 2025, and the cost pressures were still high due to a rise in material and transportation costs. Surveyed businesses were optimistic about the outlook for the next year. UAE's non oil GDP increased 6.8% from a year ago in 2025, outpacing the overall GDP growth of?6.2%. Dubai, the tourism and business center of the UAE, saw its headline PMI rise to 52 from 51.6. However, output growth has slowed down to its lowest level since June 2021.
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PMI data shows that Saudi Arabia's non-oil private industry activity reached a three-month peak in May.
A survey on Wednesday showed that the non-oil sector in Saudi Arabia expanded at its fastest pace in three month in May as domestic demand improved. Supply chains also stabilised. However, business optimism was still'subdued' due to conflict in the region. S&P Global's seasonally adjusted Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers' Index rose from 51.5 to 52.8 in the month of May. The 50-mark?distinguishes growth from contraction. The output accelerated the most in three months after the March downturn that followed the start of the Iran War.?Firms cited normalising work conditions, renewed contracts, and stronger local demand. The subindex of new orders?rose modestly in May to 52.0 from 51.5 in April, and remained below the long-term trend. Exports fell for the third consecutive month due to geopolitical tensions, increased fuel and freight costs, and disruptions in shipping. The decline was only marginally slower than the survey record contraction in April. The supply chain improved as well, with the delivery time of suppliers decreasing for the first three months, due to firms relying more on local vendors. Backlogs of work increased for the 11th consecutive time, but only moderately. Naif Al Ghaith is the Riyad Bank’s chief economist. He said, "Overall the latest PMI reading supports the expectation that Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economic will continue its upward trend throughout the rest of 2026." The business optimism was'muted', with many companies hopeful of a recovery in the market this year, but wary of inflation and geopolitical tensions. (Reporting and editing by Hugh Lawson; Staff Reporting)
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Gold remains stable amid Middle East tensions and US economic data is in focus
As 'investors' watched for a?development?in the Middle East, amid increasing inflation fears, and awaited US economic data to be released on Thursday, gold prices held steady. Gold spot was unchanged at $4485.17 an ounce as of 0319 GMT after rising by over 1% the previous session. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell 0.1% to $4,513.60. The market is now looking at the possibility that Trump will push for a resolution to a peace agreement, even though Trump wants to see a ceasefire with Iran. Kelvin Wong said. If we see a further increase in the price of gold, it could dampen any recovery that might have occurred. The Gulf hostilities erupted again on Wednesday. According to the U.S. Military, Iranian missile attacks against Bahrain, Kuwait and other regional targets have either been thwarted, or failed. U.S. Secretary of state Marco Rubio stated on Tuesday that the negotiating team of President Donald Trump has not offered Iran relief from sanctions in exchange for reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. He also insisted that any relief of sanctions was linked to Tehran?giving up its nuke programme. Early Wednesday morning, oil prices increased by more than 1%, causing concern over inflation and rate hikes. Gold is often viewed as an inflation hedge, but it tends to lose its appeal when interest rates are high. Beth Hammack, the Cleveland Federal Reserve president, said on Tuesday that the U.S. Central Bank may have to raise interest rates in the near future if inflation pressures already high continue to increase. Investors will now be awaiting U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Data, which is due later today, and the Employment Report due on Friday to gauge the Fed’s monetary policies. Silver spot fell by 0.1%, to $75.01 an ounce. Platinum lost 0.2%, to $1.933.15, and palladium rose 0.2%, to $1.372.25. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu sahu, Ronojoy Mazumdar, and Pablo Sinha from Bengaluru)
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Copper falls from two-week highs as investors pause following rally
Copper prices fell on Wednesday, as investors locked-in profits after the metal reached a two week high. However, uncertainty around a U.S. Tariff on the metal limited losses. As of 0245 GMT, the benchmark three-month price for copper at the London Metal Exchange fell?0.43%. It was $13,980.50 per metric ton. It?touched an over two-week-high and surged beyond the $14,000 mark on Tuesday. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most active copper contract gained 0.78%, to 106 820 yuan (15 785.90 dollars) per ton. This is lower than the evening trading high of 107.420 yuan, which was set three weeks ago. As the June 30 deadline nears, traders said that prices continue to be supported by uncertainty regarding U.S. Copper Tariffs. The U.S. Commerce Secretary is expected to give President Donald Trump an update by June 30 on the domestic copper market, including refined copper, and refining capacities. Trump signed a Proclamation last week,?amending the tariffs on certain steel, aluminum and copper imports. However, traders claimed that these changes had a little direct impact on refined copper. This move, however, kept the tariff risk front and center for a market already distorted due to expectations of U.S. actions. The LME's tightening supply also boosted sentiment. A widening premium for Comex copper over that of the LME increased the risk of dislocation. The LME Cash-to-three Month Copper Discount The price of a ton dropped to $4 on June 3, down from $77 on the 19th, while the number of cancelled warrants increased. This suggests that more metal was being prepared to be withdrawn. As diplomacy between Iran and the U.S. failed to make any progress, and as the Strait of Hormuz was still closed, fresh hostilities in Middle East were a growing concern. A stronger-than-expected U.S. job openings reading also weighed on metals, supporting ?the dollar and reducing expectations of near-term U.S. rate cuts. On the LME, aluminium was down by 0.05%, while zinc slipped 0.19%. Lead fell 0.32%. Nickel lost?0.64%. Tin was also down?0.20%. Aluminium gained 0.22% on SHFE. Zinc rose 1.27%. Lead grew 0.24%. Nickel lost 0.98%. Tin climbed 1.39%.
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Cambodia uses obscure UN processes to resolve maritime dispute between Thailand and Cambodia
Cambodia has been relying on the little-used UN arbitration procedure known as "compulsory reconciliation" to settle a long-running maritime border dispute with Thailand. It is hoping that this will resolve the dispute and allow it to unlock potential oil and natural gas resources worth billions of dollars. What is the CAMBODIA - Thailand dispute about? Since more than 25 years, Cambodia and Thailand both claim about 26,000 square kilometers of?sea? in the Gulf of Thailand. It is estimated that the disputed maritime belt contains nearly 12 trillion cubic foot of natural gas, and large quantities oil worth about $300 billion. In 2001, the Southeast Asian neighbors signed a pact to create a framework for jointly exploiting the energy resources of the "overlapping claims zone". Thailand's government unilaterally ended the agreement with Cambodia last month, fulfilling an election promise made by Thai PM Anutin Charnvirakul. This was after two deadly rounds of conflict along a disputed border in last year. WHAT IS COMPULSORY conciliation? The Cambodian government announced on Tuesday that it has launched a mandatory conciliation process in accordance with the UN Convention on the Laws of the Sea. A compulsory conciliation is an alternative dispute resolution method that can be initiated by any signatory of the convention against another. The Conciliation Commission is a group of five members that each country nominates two conciliators to. The commission will investigate the facts and legal position of each country to provide a set non-binding recommendation, which is also sent to the UN Secretary General in a separate report. Has it been used before? East Timor (also known as Timor Leste) has been the only country to use this UN-backed mechanism in order to resolve a long-standing maritime dispute with Australia. East Timor officially started the process by sending a notification to Australia on April 11, 2016. Australia agreed a few weeks later to join the process. Early March 2018, after less than two years' worth of negotiations, two countries signed an agreement on maritime boundaries at the UN Headquarters, in front of the UN chief. What is next in the process? The Cambodian Foreign Minister, Prak Sokhonn has been delegated to act as the country's?agent in the proceedings. Peter Taksoe-Jensen, a Danish diplomat, and Jean-Marc Thouvenin, a French academic, have also been appointed to the Conciliation Commission. Taksoe Jensen was the chair of the commission which conducted the negotiations between East Timor, Australia and the Danish diplomat Peter Taksoe Jensen. According to a statement from the Cambodian government, Thailand has 21 calendar days to name its?conciliators. If they fail to do so, Cambodia may request that the UN Secretary-General appoints them in Bangkok's place. Anutin, Thailand's Anutin, said that he did not know that Cambodia had initiated the mandatory conciliation process. He added that his government would use UNCLOS principles for its next actions. He told reporters that Thailand hasn't yet decided when it will move forward. The commission must choose a chairperson in 30 days after four members are appointed. (Reporting and editing by Josh Smith, Kate Mayberry and DevjyotGhoshal)
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Iron ore prices fall due to a weak steel market and dwindling margins
Iron ore fell on Wednesday due to a thinning of steel margins and a seasonal decline in demand from the top consumer, China. As of 0309 GMT, the most-traded contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange dropped 0.57%, to 780 yuan ($115.27), per metric ton. As of 0259 GMT, the benchmark July iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange fell 1.22% and was at its lowest level since April 15, $103.95 per ton. In a post on WeChat late Tuesday, the steel association, a state-backed organization, said that the steel market had entered its traditionally low demand season sooner than usual. Rain and high temperatures can limit outdoor construction, reducing the demand for steel. "Downstream consumption of steel has been hit as the buying appetite has declined, putting pressure on?steel prices and feedstocks," said Xin?Ge, deputy director at consultancy Lange Steel. Steelmakers should prioritize controlling production, lowering inventories, and reducing the mismatch between supply and demand. Ge Lange, Lange's Ge, said that the rising price of coal after the mine disaster has impacted on steel margins and reduced interest in buying feedstocks. Prices of iron ores rose on Tuesday after the state buyer, China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG), told domestic steelmakers to avoid negotiating with Australia's Fortescue over a new product. This triggered speculation about a potential ban?on purchases. Analysts and traders have downplayed any immediate impact on the price. Coke and coking coal, two other steelmaking ingredients, traded in a mixed manner. Prices of coking coal have increased by 16% since the mine accident that killed a number of miners in late May. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mostly lower. The rebar price fell 0.06%. Hot-rolled coils dropped 0.15%. Wire rods dropped 0.41%. Stainless steel rose 0.2%. $1 = 6.7666 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Ronojoya Mazumdar in Beijing, Amy Lv reporting from Shanghai)
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Republican Miller-Meeks and Democrat Bohannan will face off again in the Iowa congressional race
Mariannette Miller Meeks, a Republican U.S. representative from Iowa's 1st congressional district, won renomination on Tuesday. She will now face Democrat Christina Bohannan in her 3rd general election. Miller-Meeks is a 70 year old physician and three term?House Republican. According to U.S. media reports, Miller-Meeks defeated MAGA Republican David Pautsch. Media projected that Bohannan, a Democrat, had defeated Travis Terrell in order to win her party's nomination. Miller-Meeks is one of the House Republicans who are most vulnerable at a moment when high gasoline prices and unpopular wars against Iran have lowered President Donald Trump's ratings, even among Republicans. Bohannan is a 54-year old law professor and former state legislator from the University of Iowa. She has unsuccessfully run against Miller-Meeks twice. She lost the 2024 election to the incumbent by just 800 votes. Her campaign is focused on expanding healthcare coverage, reversing Medicaid cutbacks from Trump's "One?Big Beautiful Act" and affordability. Miller-Meeks will face Bohannan in November, in a race that analysts have classified as a tossup. According to the most recent documents filed with Federal Election Commission, each candidate has more than $4 million in cash.
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Oil prices rise on Mideast missiles, while AI bulls drive stocks higher
The dollar was on the verge of breaking above 160 yen on Wednesday as new hostilities flared up in the Gulf following the failure of U.S.Iran peace negotiations. U.S. crude futures jumped about 2%, to $95.40 per barrel. The?dollar reached 160 yen and then stopped as traders became 'wary' of possible Japanese intervention at that level. S&P 500 futures fell, but the AI bull ran in Asia continued, with stock indexes reaching record highs in Taiwan, Japan, and other Asian countries. South Korean markets are closed. U.S. Central Command reported that Iran launched missiles against Kuwait and Bahrain. These were either thwarted, or they failed. This prompted U.S. Forces to strike back at Iran's Qeshm Island, in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards claimed that they had attacked the U.S. Fifth Fleet Headquarters. Iran and the United States announced last week they had reached an agreement to end the war. However, the two sides are yet to sign off on the tentative deal. Chris Weston is the head of research at Pepperstone Brokerage in Melbourne. Things are more precarious now. This does indicate that people are returning to the table to negotiate with less flexibility to achieve this and I think we're starting to see some of these bets unwound." Bitcoin, which has fallen nearly 10% in just three sessions, hit a two-month low on Wednesday of $66,123. AI led Wall Street indexes to make small gains over night, despite war concerns. Marvell Technology shares soared by 32.5%, reaching a new record high. This was after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang referred to the chipmaker as the next trillion-dollar company during Computex Week in Taipei. SpaceX is planning to raise $75 billion next week in a massive initial public offering, selling 555.6 millions shares at $135 a share. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rate was 4.46% on Wednesday morning, despite the bond market rallying through Tuesday. Overnight data revealed that U.S. jobs openings in April increased the most since 2005, which indicates a robust job market. It also shows little evidence of the need for lower interest rates. The U.S. ISM services index is expected later on Wednesday. This will be followed by the labour market data for Friday. Peter Dragicevich of payments firm Corpay said that he believes the U.S. employment report could exceed the downbeat forecasts. If this is true, it could bolster the view that the U.S. Fed may raise interest rates in the future, and the USD might'strengthen.' The markets, who had anticipated rate cuts prior to the Iran War, have already priced in 18 basis points for rate increases in the United States this year. The markets have priced in a hike in Europe this week after data showed that inflation accelerated last month. Traders see a 75% probability of a rise in Japan in June. The foreign exchange market was largely stable, with the euro trading at $1.1627 while the dollar was just shy of 160 Japanese yen (159.86). Data showed that Australia's economy slowed down in the third quarter of this year. A boom in data centers boosted investment in business but also reduced imports. The currency remained stable at $0.7177. (Reporting and editing by Neil Fullick; Tom Westbrook)
China's crude oil surplus surged in April, as refinery output dipped. Russell
In April, the amount of crude oil that was available in China for storage grew for a second consecutive month. Imports were relatively high while refinery processing declined.
According to calculations based upon official data, China's crude surplus amounted to 1,89 million barrels a day (bpd), the highest since June 2023, and an increase from 1,74 million bpd last March.
China, which is the world's largest crude importer and has been a major buyer of oil, has bought large quantities of discounted oil, mainly from Iran and Russia, in countries that are under Western sanctions.
China does not reveal the volume of crude oil flowing in or out of its strategic and commercial stockspiles. However, an estimate can still be made if you subtract the amount of crude oil that is available through imports and domestic production from the total crude.
According to data released by the government on Monday, refiners processed 14,12 million barrels per day in April. This is down from 14,85 million barrels per day in March, and 1.4% less than one year ago.
Crude imports in April were down from a 19-month high (12.11 million bpd) in March.
Last month, domestic production fell slightly from its 14-year-high of 4,48 million bpd in March.
After subtracting the refinery output of 14,12 million bpd, there is a surplus 1.89 million BPD.
The surplus crude was 880,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the first four quarters of the year. This is up from the 580,000 barrels per day for the first three months.
China's refiners used up their inventories for the first time since 18 months in the first two-month period of 2025. They processed about 30,000 barrels per day more than they could get from crude imports or domestic production.
The massive surpluses of March and April, however, have reversed this earlier trend.
Not all this excess crude has likely been stored, as some is processed in plants that are not included in the official data.
Even if you ignore the gaps in official data, there is no doubt that China imported crude oil at a rate far greater than what it needed to meet its domestic fuel needs in March and in April.
Options
What is the likely trajectory of China's crude oil imports and refinery production in the next few months?
Refiners have more options with the large amount of crude oil surplus that has accumulated in recent months.
China's refineries are known to buy surplus crude oil when prices are low and reduce imports when prices rise too fast or too high.
The increase in imports between March and April is largely due to refiners purchasing Iranian and Russian crude. This was partly because these grades are cheaper than other grades but also partially due to fears that U.S. sanctions against vessels and buyers could be effective.
According to commodity analysts Kpler, China's seaborne exports from Russia reached 1.38 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, and 1.22 millions bpd during March. These were the two strongest months since 1.51million bpd was recorded in October of last year.
Kpler estimated that imports from Iran fell to 743,000 barrels per day (bpd) in April. This was down from 1,39 million bpd, the highest monthly figure since October.
If they can find a way to avoid the U.S. sanction, it's likely Chinese refiners would continue to purchase Russian and Iranian crude.
It would appear that if the volume of crude they can import from these two suppliers is limited, they will have enough in stock to avoid the risk of driving prices up by importing other sources.
These are the views of a columnist who writes for.
(source: Reuters)