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Russian rouble slightly down vs US Dollar, ignoring EU sanction threat
The Russian rouble was slightly weaker against the U.S. Dollar on Wednesday. This is despite the European Commission's proposal for new sanctions, which includes a lower price cap on Russian crude oil. On June 10, the commission proposed an additional 18-point package of sanctions for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The measures targeted Moscow's banks, energy revenues, and military industry. The Russian government has proposed that the price cap for Russian crude oil in the Group of Seven (G7) nations be lowered to $45 per barrel from $60, to reduce Russia's revenue. According to LSEG, based on quotes over the counter, by 0945 GMT the rouble had fallen 0.2%, at 78.60 US dollars. On June 10, the dollar and the rouble both strengthened by 0.7%. In November of last year, U.S. sanctions were imposed against Gazprombank which processed Russia's energy payments. The rouble dropped by as much as 15%. The Russian currency is up around 40% versus the dollar this year. BCS analysts commented on the EU sanction proposals with "Negative sentiment but still there is little certainty". "The history of the introduction of logistical restrictions from 2022 shows that a temporary increase in price discounts for Russian hydrocarbons is followed by a normalization of prices without affecting production or export volumes. "It is likely to happen again this time," said the experts. The rouble fell by 0.9% on the Moscow Stock Exchange against the Chinese Yuan, which is the most commonly traded foreign currency in Russia. The central bank uses the yuan to make foreign exchange intervention. (Reporting and editing by Rachna uppal; Gleb Bryanski)
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Reds aim to sweep Guardians in the Ohio Cup
The Cincinnati Reds are the winners of their rivalry against the Cleveland Guardians. Spencer Steer's RBI single and Andrew Abbott’s first-career complete game along with his three-hitter allowed Cincinnati to defeat Cleveland 1-0 in a Tuesday matchup. The Reds were 5-0 winners against the Guardians by 2025. They have a chance on Wednesday to finish the season sweep. Cincinnati, who has also won five consecutive games overall, will send Nick Lodolo, a left-handed pitcher (4-4 with a 3.21 ERA), to the mound in the final game of the series to face Cleveland's Logan Allen, whose ERA is 3-4 and 4.42. TJ Friedl, Reds' center fielder, said: "We have played really good baseball in this clubhouse for a short time and we will continue to build on that." We know what we've got in this clubhouse. "We're going to accept that and move on." The intrastate battle of this week was dominated by a literal rolling. The players of Cincinnati didn't realize that Terry Francona was the real winner until the Ohio Cup trophy was brought into the clubhouse following the first game. The Reds had not won the season series in 2014, so it was easy to understand. When they rolled the trophy here on the cart we were like "Oh, it's true." Friedl laughed and said: "It's right there." Steer's batting average is only.230 for the season, but with his single to win the game off Slade Cecconi, he has gone 4-for-7 in the last eight games when he had runners on base. This was his fifth consecutive game in which he had a hit. Abbott's dominance against Cleveland has made him the favorite for the Frank Robinson Most Outstanding Player Award, which will be presented on Wednesday to Ohio Cup's best performer. He has pitched 14 scoreless inning in both of his starts against the Guardians. Stephen Vogt, the manager of the Guardians, said that Reds players "pitched well, hit well, played good defense and took good at-bats." "They are a very strong team." Vogt’s team has lost back-to-back domestic series for the first since August 2023. Abbott's 110 pitch masterpiece was the first time Cleveland had been blanked in its ballpark by a 1-0 score since August 9, 2023 when it lost to the Toronto Blue Jays. Carlos Santana, first baseman for the Guardians, said via an interpreter: "It is a long and difficult season. "Mentally we must keep fighting." We must play our best baseball and think about one day at a tme. Lodolo has a career record of 1-1 and a 6.30 ERA against Cleveland. Allen won his only appearance against Cincinnati two years ago after pitching six scoreless inning. Jose Ramirez is still the driving force behind the Guardians. He batted.388 during a 36 game on-base streak, which began April 30, with seven homers. The streak of the six-time All Star third baseman is the second-longest in the majors for this season. It trails only the 41-game streak by Kyle Schwarber, who plays for the Philadelphia Phillies. And it ties Cleveland’s longest streak in the last 19 years. Jason Kipnis' 36-game streak was in 2013. Francona stated that "Ramirez is so good, you know exactly where he's on your lineup cards." "I felt the same way with Miggy in Detroit (former American League MVP Miguel Cabrera). This guy is similar." Field Level Media
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Curve prices rise on the return of nuclear fears in France
The European electricity prices rose in the late morning of Wednesday due to concerns about possible corrosion at French reactor Civaux 2. A spokesperson for EDF has said that the EDF is not responsible for any damage caused by its employees. Inspection is underway The utility has not yet received the results of the annual maintenance at Civaux 2. Markets were reminded three years ago of the corrosion that occurred in French reactors when production fell and required imports from Germany. Prices then rose. By 0945 GMT the French baseload year-ahead was 7.6% higher at 67.6 Euros ($77.30). All contracts in Germany rose across the board. German base for 2027 was up 5.9% and 80.4 euros, while the German base for year-ahead was up 3.1%. On the spot market, a combination of a rising solar energy generation and softer demand brought down prices. LSEG's analysis revealed that the growth of solar power in Germany's main producing country outweighed the decline in wind power. The increase in coal-to power production in Germany also exceeded a decrease in gas power in the local area. The French baseload day-ahead price was down 7.1% at 26 euros/MWh. The German baseload on Thursday fell 7.6% to 64 euros. LSEG data revealed that the German wind power production will fall by 2.4 GW per day to 12.5 GW this Thursday. The German solar power generation was projected to rise by 3 GW, to 20.8 GW. The French nuclear capacity remained unchanged at 71%. The demand for electricity in Germany will be down by 300 MW per day to 53.5 GW. In France, it is expected to rise by 100MW to 43.7GW. This leaves the total usage of the region at a lower level. The temperature was expected to increase between 1 and 2,7 degrees Celsius until Thursday. Warm temperatures usually boost the European carbon market as they require additional power to cool devices, which is often generated using carbon-intensive fossil energy sources. The benchmark European carbon contract increased 2.6%, to 74.59 Euros per metric ton. European gas also firmed up.
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Russian court delays hearing on $2.9 billion Rosatom/Fortum dispute to March
Court filings show that a Russian court postponed the legal proceedings in a $2.9 Billion lawsuit brought by Rosatom, Russia's nuclear energy company, against Finland's Fortum & Outokumpu by over nine months. In May, documents filed in court and a Rosatom press release revealed that the state-controlled nuclear energy company Rosatom was seeking compensation of 227.8 billion Russian roubles (about $2.9 billion) for the termination of the contract for the Hanhikivi-1 Nuclear Power Plant in Finland. Court documents, which did not provide any further information, showed that the hearing at the Moscow City Arbitration Court scheduled for Wednesday morning has been postponed to March 16, 2026. Rosatom, Fortum, and Outokumpu did not respond immediately. Rosatom and former Finnish partners are locked in a dispute over the cancelled agreement since May 2022. The Finnish side cancelled the project shortly after Moscow started the conflict in Ukraine citing delays and political risk. Rosatom said in May that it sought compensation for the losses it alleged to have suffered as a result of what it termed the illegal termination of the EPC contracts to build the plant and violations of the shareholder agreements. Outokumpu claims that it never signed the EPC contract or any other agreement related to the Hanhikivi-1 Project with any Rosatom companies. Fortum stated in May that it was the final decision of the International Chamber of Commerce that Rosatom subsidiary could not include Fortum as a party. The contract for the 1.2 gigawatt power plant, with estimated investments of 6.5-7 billion euro, was signed with Fennovoima in 2013. This joint consortium included Finnish stakeholders such as Fortum, Outokumpu, and SSAB, who initially controlled two thirds via a joint venture. And the Russian side held a third. Fennovoima has ceased its business operations after the termination of the project. It is now only involved in legal disputes. $1 = 78.6000 Rubels (Reporting and writing by Alexander Marrow, Editing and editing by Alexandra Hudson).
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Stocks and the dollar cautiously welcome recent US-China trade agreement
The dollar and stock markets welcomed the latest progress in the trade talks between China and the United States with caution on Wednesday, while they waited for more details about what had been decided and if it would last. Bond investors also prepared for an auction of Treasury bonds that will test the demand for the country’s debt, as well as a reading of U.S. Inflation that could reveal the early impact on prices from tariffs. Washington and Beijing negotiators said in London that they had "agreed on a framework for trade", which would be presented to their respective leaders. Howard Lutnick, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce, said that a plan to implement the implementation plan would result in removing restrictions on rare Earths and magnets. However, he did not provide any specifics. Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said that even though the details were scanty, markets would be happy as long as both sides talked. She said, "It's going to be hard for both sides and will take a very long time before they can reach a comprehensive agreement." "This type of comprehensive agreement usually takes years to reach, so I am sceptical about a framework agreed at the London meeting being comprehensive." A federal appeals court on Tuesday allowed the most comprehensive tariffs of President Donald Trump to remain in place while it reviewed a lower court ruling blocking them. Elon Musk, the billionaire who owns Tesla, also admitted that he regretted some of his posts about Trump last week. This could be the beginning of a reconciliation of a sudden rift which has caused Washington to become tense and affected the shares of Musk's Tesla. Investors who have suffered from trade tensions before, remain cautious. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures are down by 0.2%. The performance of European and Asian shares was slightly better, with the STOXX benchmark index for major European stocks gaining 0.14% and MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan gaining 0.6%. AUCTION ANGST Dollar slightly strengthened against the Japanese yen, trading at 145.05. The dollar index rose to 99.091 as the euro fell 0.1% to $1.1422. Bond investors also awaited an auction later that day of $39 billion worth of 10-year notes, eager to see whether foreign buyers would show up. The 10-year Treasury yields remained unchanged at 4.4898%. Investors are demanding a higher premium on Treasuries due to concerns about the huge U.S. deficits and debt, as well as their unease with White House trade policies. Analysts expect that the data on U.S. Consumer Prices for May will also show an initial increase in prices due to tariffs. However, it may take several months before this is fully reflected. The median forecast for the consumer price index is a 0.2% rise in the headline and a 0.3% increase in the core, which would push the annual rates to 2.5% and 2,9% respectively. Any increase would undermine the hopes of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and bonds could be sold off. The markets have little hope that the Fed will relax at its meeting in July or next week, but they've priced in a 60% probability of a move for September. Gold gained 0.6% on the commodity markets to $3,345 per ounce. As markets assessed the outcome from the U.S. - China trade talks, oil prices rose to a new seven-week-high. Brent crude futures gained 9 cents, to $66.96 per barrel. U.S. crude rose 18 cents, to $65.16.
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Russia is ready to remove Iran's excess nuclear material
Russia announced on Wednesday that it is ready to remove Iranian nuclear materials and convert them to fuel in an effort to narrow the differences between Iran and the United States over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program. Tehran claims it has a right to nuclear power for peaceful purposes, but the rapid progress of its uranium-enrichment programme has raised concerns in the West as well as across the Gulf region that the country is trying to build nuclear weapons. Washington and Tehran are divided over the fate of Iran's nuclear enrichment. U.S. president Donald Trump believes that Iran must not be allowed to build nuclear weapons. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, however, says Iran can never abandon its enrichment. Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, told Trump that he was going to a phone call He was The Kremlin stated last week that it would use its close relationship with Iran to aid in negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program. Sergei Ryabkov is the Russian deputy foreign minister who oversees U.S. and arms control relations. He told Russian media that Wednesday, efforts should be intensified to find a solution and that Moscow would help in both ideas and practical ways. Ryabkov stated that "we are prepared to offer assistance to Washington and Tehran in a variety of ways, including providing ideas and concepts to aid in the negotiations, as well as practical help, such exporting excess nuclear material from Iran for use in producing fuel for reactors." The United States want all the highly enriched Iranian uranium to be exported out of Iran. Tehran claims it will only ship out the excess above a ceiling agreed upon in a 2015 agreement. Russia, as the world's largest nuclear power, believes that Iran has every right to develop a civilian nuclear program and any use of force against Iran would be illegal and inacceptable. Moscow bought weapons from Iran to fight the war in Ukraine. It also signed a strategic partnership agreement with Tehran for 20 years earlier this year. (Reporting and Writing by Guy Faulconbridge, Editing by Andrew Osborn.)
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The US-China trade negotiations have made progress with major Gulf markets.
The major stock markets in the Gulf rose early on Wednesday, in line with Asian stocks. This was due to signs of progress between the U.S. Both countries' top officials said that they had reached an agreement on a framework for resuming their trade truce and removing China's export restriction on rare earths. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan increased by 0.5%. Saudi Arabia's benchmark stock index, which was traded after a break of four sessions, advanced by 1.2%. This was led by an increase of 1.7% in Al Rajhi Bank as well as a rise of 1.6% in Saudi Aramco. According to trade sources reported on Tuesday, the kingdom's crude supply to China will dip slightly in July. However, it is still expected to be strong for a 3rd consecutive month, as the OPEC kingpin regains market share supplying China, the world's largest crude importer. Dubai's main stock index rose 0.1% thanks to a rise of 1.1% in Emaar Properties, a blue-chip developer. ADNOC Gas climbed 1.2% in Abu Dhabi. ADNOC Gas announced on Tuesday that it had made a final decision regarding the first phase Rich Gas Development Project (RGD), awarding contracts worth $5 billion to expand the project and improve its efficiency. ADNOC Logistics & Services, a company that streamlines maritime deliveries and is part of the chemicals manufacturer Borouge, gained 0.6%. The official responsible for expanding the financial hub in Abu Dhabi has also predicted that the rush by financial firms to set up shop in the emirate, which is rich in oil, will continue apace. The Qatari Index rose by 0.4%. This was mainly due to a 0.4% rise in the largest lender of the Gulf, Qatar National Bank.
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London copper market eases as it awaits details of US-China trade talks
London copper prices eased Wednesday as investors awaited more details following the latest signs that progress had been made in U.S. China trade talks. U.S. officials and Chinese officials have agreed on a framework for re-establishing their trade truce and resolving China's export limitations on rare earth minerals, magnets and other materials. This was announced by U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick on Tuesday after two days of intensive negotiations in London. The London Metal Exchange's three-month contract for copper fell by 0.1% at $9,743.5 as of 0728 GMT. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract gained 0.2%, reaching 79,290 Yuan per ton ($11 034.57). After the talks, the U.S. Dollar was stable against its major counterparts. (=USD) Carol Kong, currency analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said, "It's going to be very difficult and take a lot of time for both parties to reach a comprehensive trading agreement." "This type of comprehensive deal is usually reached over years, so I am sceptical that the framework agreed upon at the London meeting will be comprehensive." Other LME metals include aluminium, which rose 1.2% to 2,522.5 per ton; zinc, up 0.8% at $2,678.5; nickel, up 0.4% at $15,385, while lead was down 0.1%, to 1,984. Aluminium, one of the other SHFE metals rose 1.3% to 20250 yuan per ton, as the metal gained some support from dwindling stock, according to a Shanghai commodity research house, SHMET. Aluminium stocks Since the end of March, SHFE-registered storages have seen a decline. As of June 6, this number had almost been halved to 118.165 tons. Zinc rose 1.2% to 22140 yuan. Tin gained 0.7% to 265530 yuan. Nickel increased 0.1% to 121790 yuan. Click here to see the latest news in metals, and other topics. (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair; Sonia Cheema and Harikrishnan Nair)
United States makers in stopping healing however diesel utilize tepid: Kemp
U.S. makers are slowly emerging from an extended however shallow downturn over the last two years, but development has been fitful, and their consumption of diesel stays lukewarm, which is weighing on oil rates.
The Institute for Supply Management's production index slipped to 48.7 (22nd percentile for all months because 1980) in May from 49.2 (26th percentile) in April and a current high of 50.3 (34th percentile) in March.
The March reading was the first time the index had climbed up above the 50-point threshold, signalling expansion, given that October 2022, but it has considering that slipped back into contraction area for the last 2 months.
The study's production sub-index was up to 50.2 (21st. percentile) in May from a recent high of 54.6 (45th percentile). in March, as activity rates failed.
Suggesting the growth might remain desultory for a few. more months, the new orders part plunged to 45.4 (9th. percentile) in May from 51.4 (27th percentile) in March.
Chartbook: U.S. manufacturing and diesel use
Producers reported weaker conditions than their. equivalents in services, real estate, building, mining and. farming.
The ISM non-manufacturing index really increased to 53.8 (33rd. percentile for all months because 1997) in May from 51.4 (14th. percentile) in March.
Production offers less tasks and represent a smaller. share of total financial output but is much more. energy-intensive.
By contrast, services represent a far larger share of. value-added, use more individuals however utilize fairly less fuel and. electrical power.
The manufacturing sector's slow performance has. therefore moistened total energy usage-- even as the. faster development in services has boosted the overall economy and. employment.
Expectations at the start of the year that an. velocity in manufacturing in the United States and the other. major economies would raise diesel consumption and rates have. not been realised.
DISTILLATE FUEL SLUMP
More than three-quarters of all diesel and other extract. fuel oils are utilized in freight transport, production and. construction, so distillate usage is generally correlated. closely with the manufacturing cycle.
But intake of distillates has actually been even more drab. than the slow and halting healing in manufacturing activity. over the last 6 months.
The volume of distillate fuel oil provided to the domestic. market, a proxy for intake, was under 3.7 million barrels. daily (b/d) in March 2024.
Volumes provided were the lowest for the time of year since. 1998, according to quotes prepared by the U.S. Energy. Details Administration.
Volumes were down by 10% compared with the same month last. year and by the very same portion compared to the prior 10-year. seasonal average.
Supply can be unstable from one month to the next. March may. have been an outlier. But distillate usage has been. lagging the upturn in making for numerous months.
Some petroleum-derived extract fuel oils are being. changed by biodiesel and renewable fuel oils, particularly in. California.
Even if biodiesel and sustainable fuel oils are consisted of,. nevertheless, the volume of extract provided was down by 4-8% in. March compared to in 2015 and the 10-year average.
Overall petroleum and non-petroleum distillates provided were. the lowest since the first wave of the pandemic in March 2020. and before that the mid-cycle downturn in March 2016.
Total extracts supplied have been broadly flat over the. past 12 months regardless of the reported improvement in manufacturing. and freight activity.
EXTRACT INVENTORIES
Reflecting tepid intake and strong refinery crude. processing to make gasoline, distillate stocks have been. trending higher for the last 3 months.
Inventories were still 10 million barrels (-8% or -0.52. standard discrepancies) listed below the prior 10-year seasonal average on. May 31, according to data from the EIA.
But the seasonal deficit had narrowed from 18 million. barrels (-13% or -1.09 basic discrepancies) at the start of. March.
Stocks have actually been flat or increasing at a time of year when. they would usually be diminishing and have climbed to a four-year. seasonal high.
In response, prices for diesel other distillates have been. falling faster than for crude, narrowing the gross refinery. margin or fracture spread.
The crack spread for making diesel from Brent crude has. narrowed to approximately just $19 per barrel so far in June. 2024.
The inflation-adjusted spread has narrowed from $46 per. barrel as just recently as August 2023 and a record $63 in June 2022. after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
In genuine terms, the spread has actually fallen back in line with the. average for the 5 years between 2015 and 2019 before the. pandemic and invasion.
Traders anticipate diesel supplies to stay plentiful for the. next couple of months, which should assist consist of inflationary. pressures within the supply chain and provide the significant central. banks more scope to cut rates of interest.
Associated columns:
- Renewable fuels take bite out of United States diesel usage. ( May 10, 2024)
- U.S. producers emerge from depression, set to improve fuel. usage (April 4, 2024)
- Global freight velocity will lift fuel rates (March. 27, 2024)
- Diesel costs primed to increase dramatically in 2024 (February 6,. 2024)
John Kemp is a market expert. The views revealed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy
(source: Reuters)