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Oil prices rise and global stocks fall as bonds falter
The global share market fell on Monday, as new drone attacks in the Gulf drove oil prices and bond rates higher. This stoked inflation concerns at a time when Nvidia's earnings will test the tech bullrun. In the United Arab Emirates a drone attack caused a fire in a nuclear power station. Saudi Arabia also reported intercepting 3 drones. The Strait of Hormuz, which is vital to the oil and gas industry in the world, remains closed for all but a small amount of shipping. This is because Tehran wants to formalise control of this waterway. George Lagarias is the chief economist of Forvis Mazars. He said that "right now, the markets are in panic mode as they price the possibility of the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed." Brent crude was up 1.2% to about $110.55 per barrel while U.S. oil rose 1.4% to $102.48. Importantly, September futures traded above $100 while December reached a contract high. Markets were bracing for a prolonged shortage. G7 finance minsters will meet in Paris to discuss the Strait of Hormuz, and the critical raw material supply. However, geopolitical differences could test the group's unity. On Monday, the global bond markets were again hit by worries that energy prices would continue to rise and drive inflation and stunt economic growth. Yields for?U.S. The yield on 10-year bonds reached a record high of 4,631% after a surge of 23 basis points in the previous week. The yield on 30-year bonds has reached 5.159%, after a jump of 18 basis points in the last week. Japan's 10-year bond yield reached a level not seen since 1996, as the government proposed to issue new debt to fund an extra budget planned to cushion the economic impact of the Iran War. Germany's 10-year yield on bonds rose to a new high not seen for 15 years. Lagarias of Forvis Mazars stated that "as long as it is not a credit-event, and we do not have any evidence to call it a credit-event, I would also be surprised if this caused a large rout in equity markets as well." It can be a reason for some investors not to invest, but it would surprise me if there was a real correction as a result of the bond volatility. STOCKS ARE mainly lower The rising yields increase borrowing costs, and a discount is applied to future earnings of companies. This puts pressure on stock prices. European stocks fell 0.4%. The major markets in Frankfurt, London and Paris both edged upwards. S&P futures dropped 0.5%, while Nasdaq's futures also fell 0.5%. Overnight, Japan’s Nikkei fell 1% after falling 2% from record highs last week. South Korean stocks increased 0.3% as Samsung Electronics rose almost 4% following a partial court injunction to stop a strike. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 0.6%. Chinese blue-chip stocks fell 0.5% as disappointing economic data weighed on the market. AI, RETAIL EARNINGS TO TEST FOR THE BULL RUN Earnings from Nvidia, the world's largest company, are due on Wednesday. Expectations for this company are sky-high. Nvidia's shares have risen 36% from their March lows, while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index has soared by more than 60% amid a fervent demand for chips, as tech companies invest massively in?building AI-related infrastructure. This week, Walmart and other retailers will also release their results, providing an insight into the consumer's reaction to high energy prices. Risk aversion in forex markets has been a factor that has helped the dollar as the most liquid currency. The U.S. also has a significant energy export, which gives it an advantage relative to Europe and much of Asia. The euro, which lost 1.4% in the last week, was unchanged at $1.162925. The pound rose slightly to $1.33540 after a 2.3% drop last week due to 'political instability' in Britain, which added pressure on the gilt markets. Dollar held steady against the yen, at 158.94. Only the threat of Japanese interference prevented another speculative attack on the 160.00 chart. Gold was nearly flat at $4,538.19 per ounce in the commodity markets. It has received little support as a safe-haven or a hedge against inflation risk. Reporting by Samuel Indyk, Wayne Cole and Sharon Singleton; editing by Gus Trompiz and Sonali Desai
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Protests erupt over Kenya fuel price hikes, strike strands commuters
On Monday, protests over fuel price increases triggered by the 'Iran War' erupted across several Kenyan cities. This included a nationwide strike in public transport that left commuters stranded and forced some people to walk into work. Transport Sector Alliance announced on Sunday that its member associations' vehicles would cease operation at midnight to protest the latest price hike, and police have said they will act against any disruptions. Kenya's Energy & Petroleum Regulatory Authority raised retail fuel costs by up to 23.5% last week, after increasing them by 24.2%?last month. The conflict in the Middle East is causing global oil and gas supply to be squeezed. Striking transport operators and protesters blocked roads leading into Nairobi on Monday morning. Some protesters lit tires to block access to major roads. This caused congestion, and left many commuters stranded. The strike in Mombasa, Kenya’s largest port city, has raised concerns about supply chain delays. John Mbadi, Finance Minister at Citizen TV, said that the energy and finance ministries were hoping to meet with public transport operators on Monday to discuss a possible solution. He noted that current prices are already subsidised. Kenya imports nearly all its fuel products from the Middle East via government-to-government ?deals with Gulf suppliers. Fuel price increases have pushed up the cost of basic items and increased transport fares. Gabriel Odhiambo (24), a public relations worker, said that his transportation costs had doubled as well as food prices. Four tomatoes cost 60 shillings, or 50 cents. This is a triple increase. Kenya increased the price of super petrol in Nairobi from 206.97 shillings to 214.25 (Kenyan Shillings) ($1.66) per litre for the period May 15 to June 14, while the price of diesel remained the same at 196.63 shillings. Kerosene remained unchanged at 152.78. $1 = 129.2000 Kenyan Shillings
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Ghana wants to increase reserves by selling 30% of the gold mined.
A senior official said that Ghana had asked large-scale miners to sell 30 percent of their annual output to the central bank as part of an overhauled reserve building?drive. This is up from 20 percent, but miners claim key commercial terms are still unresolved. Globally, central banks are stockpiling more bullion due to the soaring price of this asset. Ghana, Africa's largest gold producer, began its bullion purchasing programme in 2022. The Ghana Chamber of mines later secured an agreement with the miners to supply 20% of the annual production to the central banks. Bank of Ghana data revealed that gold reserves rose to 19.2 tons in February. This helped stabilize the Ghanaian cedi, and build external buffers, as the economy recovers after its worst crisis in generations. REVAMPED PROGRAMME FOR RESERVES The government revamped its reserve programme in February. It aims to reach 157 tons (15-months of import coverage) by 2028. Paul Bleboo, the head of the Central Bank's Gold Management Programme, said on Thursday that "this?time we intend to negotiate 30% of annual production from industrial miners"... and the entire %30% will be delivered in a dore form. Bleboo reported that industrial miners produced about 10 tons last year against a declared production of 100 tons. This is about 10% in comparison to a 20% commitment. The central bank wants to increase reserves and improve traceability. State gold trader GoldBod will act as the "gatekeeper", through which all exports are required to pass. The bank will retain 30% of direct exports to keep track of volumes and allocations. Financial statements revealed that the central bank had an operating loss of GHS15.6bn ($1.37bn) in 2025. This was primarily due to the costs of monetary tightening, reserve building, and?losses associated with the?gold purchasing programme. Bleboo stated that offtake discounts, as well as a proposed discount of less than 1% on industrial gold purchases, are "necessary" and reflect refining, shipping, and purity costs. They should be treated like the cost to build reserves. The miners claim that negotiations are still ongoing. Ghana Chamber of Mines CEO Kenneth Ashigbey stated that discussions on discounts and pricing are "not straight-forward" and there has not been an agreement reached. According to a mining executive,'miners are against volume-based discounts as well as zero valuation of?byproducts such silver. Source: The proposed 1% reduction could be tax, and companies cite short timelines as well, since plans were built around 20%, suggesting a gradual ramp up instead.
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Bonds from MORNING BID America spoil the AI party
What's important in U.S. and Global Markets Today By Mike Dolan. Editor-at-Large for Finance and Markets Bond market crunch meets AI boom The bond market is'spooked' again by rising oil prices, inflation and interest rates, as well as the threat of increased government debt and higher interest rate estimates. The 30-year Treasury bond yields are at their highest level since 2007. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yields are at their highest levels in over a year. Below, I'll go into more detail. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks. BONDS DISGRACE THE AI PARTY Bond stress is spreading across the globe as G7 finance chiefs gather in Paris, France on Monday. Japan's long-dated government yields reached record highs Monday. European yields have reached their highest level in the last 15 to 20 year. In Britain, meanwhile, a new political drama is brewing amid brewing challenges against Prime Minister Keir starmer's leadership. In Europe and Japan, interest rates are likely to rise next month. There is a greater than 50% chance that the Fed will do so by the end of this year. Oil shocks in the Gulf are at the core of inflation and rate hike anxiety. The tensions in the Gulf are once again rising amid new?drone attacks, including one on a nuclear plant in the UAE. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed for all but a small number of tankers. According to Axios, world crude prices rose above $110 per barrel on Monday after U.S. president Donald Trump warned Tehran the "clock was ticking". He also said he would be ready to discuss military options against Iran. The most alarming news is that year-end oil prices have reached over $92/bbl, their highest level in the war. The stock indexes, which had been buoyed by a roaring AI boom, mostly ignored the oil shock. But now, they've been knocked back from their record highs. The major U.S. stock indexes fell sharply on the Friday. Asian shares dropped on Monday, and Wall Street futures dipped before 'the bell. Nvidia’s results this Wednesday will dominate the agenda in the States as they are a major test for the AI market. Walmart and other retailers will provide insight into the U.S. consumers' reaction to the energy crisis. Investors and policymakers will be keen to monitor the impact of high mortgage rates. Chart of the Day G7 Finance Ministers expressed concern about public debt and the bond market's volatility when they met on Monday in Paris. This was in response to a sell-off in bonds triggered by concerns?over inflation risk from the Iran War. In the last week, the implied borrowing costs from G7 government bonds that have maturities longer than 10 years reached their highest level in 24 years. The 30-year U.S. Treasury rates also hit their highest levels since the 2007-08 banking crash. Watch today's events * U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index for May (10 a.m. EDT) The G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers will meet in Paris Want to receive the Morning Bid every morning in your email? Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. Follow us on LinkedIn, X and ROI. The opinions expressed by the author are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is committed to the Trust Principles and its commitment to independence, integrity, and neutrality.
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Tsingshan has asked some Indonesian nickel producers for a reduction in output to allow aluminium to be produced.
Three sources said that China's Tsingshan group has asked the nickel pig iron producers at Indonesia's Weda Bay Industrial Park to reduce output in June so as to "conserve energy" for aluminium production. This is a sign that the group's move into the lighter metal, aluminum, is beginning to squeeze the nickel operations. Sources said that Tsingshan sent the request to NPI producers last week, as the feedstock is a vital component for stainless steel. The company also prioritized aluminium due to the recent price increase. Tsingshan owns shares in the power plant of the industrial park. The move will redirect energy from the 22 NPI plants located within the area, including some owned by Tsingshan, to the single aluminium factory, which is co-owned by Tsingshan and Xinfa. The three sources refused to name themselves because they weren't authorized to speak in public and couldn't confirm the "extent" of the production cuts. The benchmark three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange is up more than 12% since the beginning of the Iran War, which has caused disruptions in shipments of metal through the Strait of Hormuz, and has damaged aluminium plants in the Gulf Region, where close to 9% of world supply comes from. Sources said that the rally had helped to widen margins for aluminium, which were already higher than those of NPI. NPI only has a margin of less than 10%. Tsingshan didn't immediately reply to an email request for comment. POWER - BOTTLENECK Tsingshan supplies the Weda Bay Park, which is capable of producing more than 700,000.0 metric tons of nickel in NPI per year, using captive coal-fired plants, according to a presentation made by Eramet (Tsingshan’s partner at PT Weda Bay Nickel) to investors. The park is located on Indonesia's Halmahera Island and also houses the Tsingshan - Xinfa _Juwan aluminum project with a capacity of 250.000 tons per year. NPI as well as aluminium smelting use large amounts of energy. Tsingshan’s expansion into aluminum?has increased the pressure on the power supply of the park, with captive energy additions lagging behind the smelter's development. Rachel Zhang, Morgan Stanley's head of China Materials Research, said that building a captive power station takes 2 to 2.5 years compared to less than one year for an aluminum?smelter. This will limit output below the nameplate capacity. She said that for Indonesian smelters the delivery time of power equipment has increased to 21 months, up from 18 months, in 2024. Costs have also increased by about 30%. (Reporting from Dylan Duan in Shanghai, and Lewis Jackson in Beijing. Editing by Kate Mayberry.)
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India's equity benchmarks tempered as Iran war concerns offset IT gains
India's equity benchmarks closed at the same level on Monday, as concerns about the Iran War offset a partial rebound in IT stocks. The general mood remained weak due to concerns?over the?weakening rupee, high energy prices, rising yields on bonds and escalating tensions related to the Iran conflict. Saudi Arabia reported intercepting three drones. A drone attack caused a fire to break out at a nuclear plant in the United Arab Emirates. U.S. president Donald Trump said Iran had to act "fast" to stop the U.S. and Israel war with Iran. The Nifty 50 closed 0.03 % higher at 23,649.95 and the BSE Senex?added 0.1 % to 75,315.04. The indexes dropped as much as 1.4% in the session. The rupee closed at 96.35 dollars per rupee, a record low. Small-caps and mid-caps both lost 0.2% and 1.3% respectively. IT index rose 2.4%, as expectations of better profits growth from companies with a high share of revenues in greenbacks grew. The index dropped by 5.7% in the previous week. The narrow recovery shows that sentiment is fragile in countries such as?India, which are heavily dependent on energy imports. As the Iran War has lasted for a third consecutive month, Brent Crude prices have risen to $110 per barrel, said Dharmesh KANT, head of equity analysis at Cholamandalam Securities. Consumer durables ?shed 1.8%. Amber Enterprises fell 15.6% due to weak results. Gland Pharma's March-quarter profits rose 97%, resulting in a 15.4% increase. Jana Small Finance Bank's shares fell 5.9% following the announcement that the TVS Group, led by Venu Srinivasan, would buy a stake of 5.64% in the lender via the issuance warrants worth 3.17 billion rupees at a 5.3% discount to the last closing price. Separately TVS Motor announced that it would buy 4,9% of Jana Holdings at a price of 1.93 billion rupees. TVS Motors dropped 5.1%.
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Copper falls to a one-week low due to weak China data
Copper prices dropped to a one-week low on Monday, as concerns about demand were exacerbated by the weak economic data coming out of China, the world's largest consumer. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange was down?0.7% to $13,465 per metric ton, from an earlier low of $13,394.5. It has fallen 5% from a three-and-a half month high of $14196.50, last week. The traders said that the Chinese data had caused a further unwinding - a bet on higher prices held by funds and traders. China's industrial output data in April rose by 4.1% from the previous year, compared to a 5.7% increase in March. This is below a polled forecast of 5.9% growth, and represents the slowest growth in China since July 2023. Brent crude futures increased by more than 1%, to $110 per barrel. This was after an attack on a nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates and the apparent failure of U.S. - Israeli efforts to end their war against Iran. Britannia Global Markets wrote in a report that "that fuelled further speculation" about the need for central banks to continue tightening their monetary policies. This could harm metals, as it would slow global growth and reduce demand from manufacturers. Amid disruptions in Middle East production, aluminium is a major focus elsewhere. It accounts for about 9% of the global supply. "Aluminium has a very clear deficit." Analysts at Marex estimated that the market would be "short" by about 1.5 million tonnes before the Middle East's latest disruption risk. A Strait of Hormuz supply shock could cause a reduction of around 3 million tonnes of aluminium this year, pushing the shortfall in 2026 to approximately 3.3 million tonnes. The fear of a shortage led to large premiums or backwardations for contracts that were close by compared with those with a longer maturity. Prices of industrial metals were supported by a weaker dollar, which made metals more affordable for holders of other currencies. Aluminium for three months was up by 0.4% to $3,576 per ton. Zinc rose by 0.2% to 3,543, while lead climbed to $1,979. Tin gained 0.7% to 52,700, and nickel increased 0.5% to 18,590.
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The Indian cooking fuel shortage is driving California's gas price up
There is a cooking gas shortage in India. Californian motorists pay $6 per gallon for gasoline. Both are symptoms of the biggest ever disruption in energy supply. The two are directly related and show the impact of the U.S./Israeli war on Iran. The near-closure of 'Strait of Hormuz by Iran has caused global oil trade to be in chaos, and cut importers off from?around a fifth of global oil supplies that crossed the waterway prior to the war. Oil buyers have been forced to burn down their stockpiles to deal with the global fuel shortage. The pain is being spread by some attempts to alleviate the shortages. For example, the Indian government has been trying to increase the supply of liquefied petrol gas. India is the world's most populous nation and uses LPG for its primary cooking fuel. New Delhi, cut off from Middle Eastern LPG that accounted for over 90% of India’s total LPG imports before the Iran War, has ordered refiners in New Delhi to increase LPG production. Refiners have reduced production of motor fuel additives, which are made from LPG. The shrinking supply of alkylates in California is a concern for the state due to the potential shortage of gasoline. This could be caused by the decline in fuel production, and refiners from Asia struggling to get Middle Eastern crude oil. California is a big fan of alkylates because they are cleaner burning than other additives and it requires a special gasoline blend to reduce the smog. Californian motorists are facing a double blow from the war. A slump in Asian fuel imports has hit the motor fuel supply chain and the Indian government's policy of conserving cooking fuel is making it difficult to obtain the additives needed for California's unique gasoline mix. Mason Hamilton, chief economics for the American Petroleum Institute, said that India's LPG supplies are being restricted by the Strait of Hormuz. Refiners in India are also producing and exporting fewer alkylates, which adds pressure to the already tight California gasoline markets. INDIA Prioritises Cooking Fuel The decision by Indian refiners to reduce alkylate exports couldn't have come at a more inconvenient time for California. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan says that Californian motorists are already paying higher gasoline prices than they have since 2022 due to the global fuel crisis brought on by the war. De Haan stated that the more severe the shortage of alkylates becomes, the higher the prices could rise in California. California Energy Commission spokesperson said that California was aware of India's changing priorities, but had a good supply of gasoline, and other blending components. A spokesperson for the CEC said that the CEC does anticipate a shortage but is closely monitoring the situation. GasBuddy's data shows that California's average retail price for motor fuel was $6.14 on Friday. It had been $6.16 per gallon over the past three years on May 7, as gasoline stocks in California hovered near records lows. De Haan stated that prices could cross $6.50 in the next few weeks. U.S. laws require cleaner gasoline blends in the summer peak season. This increases costs. California has the most stringent U.S. mandate which raises costs compared to the rest. GasBuddy data shows that the average national gasoline price in the United States was $4.52 per gallon on Friday. India has little to do to ensure that California continues to receive alkylates. There is a severe shortage of LPG in California. People have queued up for hours just to buy LPG cylinders. Restaurants and businesses have been warned that they may be forced to close. Reliance, the operator of Jamnagar's world-largest refinery, announced this month that it would reduce alkylate production and exports in order to maximize LPG output. Kpler data shows that India's alkylate exports in April fell to 33,000 barrels a day, which is about half the 61,000 bpd exported by March. This was the lowest level since October 2023. FEW ?GOOD OPTIONS California Governor Gavin Newsom, who is also battling LPG shortages in New Delhi, has limited options to stop pump prices from increasing further while the Iran War continues. De Haan stated that any temporary measures, such as tax exemptions, to lower fuel costs would increase demand. This, in turn, would exacerbate the alkylate scarcity and cause even more sticker shock for consumers. De Haan stated that "you can't add more pressure to a system already struggling under the weight it is carrying." GasBuddy's De Haan stated that Newsom's only option to lower California's gasoline prices could be to relax the state's fuel specs to reduce the use of alkylates. His hands are bound. De Haan stated that the only option he had was to make this decision. CEC spokesperson stated that the CEC did not believe a waiver on the blending requirements will help the state. Reporting by Shariq Khan in New York, Mohi Nrayan in New Delhi and Trixie Yap, Singapore; Editing done by Liz Hampton & Rod Nickel
RWE and Proxima Fusion will collaborate on nuclear-fusion reactors, Bavaria reports
The regional state of 'Bavaria' announced on Wednesday that the technology start-up Proxima Fusion will collaborate with RWE, Germany's Max Planck Institut for Plasma Physics and Germany’s RWE to develop a nuclear fusion pilot plant.
In a media invite, the state government announced that it would sign with these partners a Memorandum of Understanding on Thursday for a project titled?Fusion Demonstrator Alpha.
Proxima Fusion announced in a separate press release on Wednesday that it had launched the Alpha Alliance, a group of over?30 companies from around the world to build a net energy-gain fusion demonstration based on stellarator technology.
The Alpha project, said the?technology company that raised 130 million euros in June of last year ($153.40?million) aims to demonstrate in principle that net-fusion energy can generated continuously. It has stated that the pilot project to be completed by 2031 would be "a milestone" on the road to a commercial plant.
Dozens of global initiatives are exploring the use of nuclear fusion to generate electricity. This is a relatively new technology that aims to harness the same physical reaction that powers our sun.
There is a 'race' between the state and private companies, governments of European countries, U.S.A., and China and between different 'technology options such as the?plasma confinement used by Proxima or the use lasers.
Proxima is a competitor of Gauss Marvel and Focused Energy.
(source: Reuters)