Latest News
-
VEB, a Russian copper mining company, will invest $13.4 billion in the country's Far East
The Russian government announced on Saturday that the state-owned development bank VEB would invest over 1.1 trillion Russian roubles (about $13.40 billion) in order to develop a mine of copper in Chukotka, in the extreme east of the nation. A government press release stated that the development of Baimskaya, which was discovered in 1972, will create 6,000 jobs, and generate tax revenues in excess of three trillion roubles. Chukotka, the easternmost federal subject in Russia, is a mountainous area. Around half of the region is above the Arctic Circle. Once operational, the deposit will increase Russia's gold production by 4% and copper production by 25%. "We continue to build not just a mining and processing plant, but a powerful and technologically-advanced industrial complex that will strengthen Russia's position in the global market and become a new point of growth in the Arctic," said Georgy Fotin, general director of the Baimskaya Management Company LLC. Vladimir Putin named the Arctic region as one of Russia’s most important economic interests. He has also increased commerce through the Northern Sea Route, as Moscow has shifted trade away from Europe and towards Asia due to Western sanctions. The government announced on Saturday that the development of the Baimskaya deposit would increase the annual cargo traffic along NSR by two million metric tonnes. $1 = 82.1000 Russian Roubles (Reporting and editing by Kirby Donovan; Lucy Papachristou)
-
At least 17 people killed in Nigeria by suspected herders
Police said that at least 17 people died when suspected cattle-herders attacked Benue State in central Nigeria on Thursday. This was amid an increase of violent clashes between farmers, herders and others. Food supplies in north-central Nigeria have been disrupted by years of conflict. This is a major agricultural area. Two days earlier, 11 people had been killed in Otukpo in Benue. A week before that, gunmen killed over 50 people when they attacked villages in Plateau State. According to SBM Intelligence, since 2019, more than 500 people have died in the region as a result of the clashes. 2.2 million others were forced to flee their homes. Police said that a separate group of suspected cattle herders killed five farmers early Friday morning in the Ukum Local Government Area of Benue, near Gbagir. Police spokesperson Sewuese Aene stated that the attackers fired as police moved in to confront them. Police said that while officers were engaged in the attack at Ukum another 12 people died in an attack 70 km away in Logo local council. (Reporting and writing by Camillus Eboh, Ben Ezeamalu and Andrew Heavens; editing by Andrew Heavens).
-
Toronto FC wins rare road game at Real Salt Lake
Toronto FC hasn't beaten Real Salt Lake in Utah for nearly 18 years. Real Salt Lake is 10-0-2 against Toronto FC at home since their first ever meeting. They will look to add to that record when they meet in Sandy, Utah on Saturday. Toronto defeated Real Salt Lake 2-1 on July 4, 2007, in a match held on the University of Utah's campus in Salt Lake City. RSL has dominated home matches since then with an unbeaten streak, which includes a win in the 2010 CONCACAF Champions League. Toronto's first-year coach Robin Fraser stated, "It is a difficult place to play." They have played well there in the past. Toronto's results there haven’t been great over the years because it’s a difficult place. Toronto FC hasn't had a good season so far (0-4-4, four points). Toronto was 0-4-1 in its first five games before it played three consecutive draws. The club was held scoreless at Minnesota United last week. Deandre Kerr, a Toronto player, will miss his third consecutive game due to an injury to his ankle. Federico Bernardeschi and Deandre Kerr are tied with two goals each for the team's lead. Fraser believes Kerr will be out for at least another month. Real Salt Lake (3-5-0, 9 points), has lost three of its last four matches. The result last week was a painful one. Nashville's Sam Surridge scored in the first minute after the second half's stoppage time the decisive goal that sent visiting Salt Lake down 2-1. Diego Luna, who scored three of the team's best goals, sees a team in progress that is yet to find its full stride. "We're playing well," Luna said. The team is improving, we are growing, and the chemistry is developing, but there are still little things to fix to bring it all together. RSL coach Pablo Mastroeni said: "We made some good progress in the past couple of weeks and played good stuff in our last game." We want to dial in some moments where we were a little naive. Salt Lake's Javain Brown has retired from the league after having surgery on Wednesday to repair an ACL tear and meniscus damage to his left knee. Brown injured his knee during a training session. Field Level Media
-
Indonesian woman uses mangroves to fight rising tides
Pasijah is a 55-year old housewife from Indonesia's Central Java Province. She wakes every morning with the sound of waves. It's not as idyllic as it sounds. It is the last remaining house in this area of Rejosari Senik. This small village, located on Java's north coast, was once dry land and is now under water. Pasijah and her family are not planning to leave. She said in February that she had "every intention" to remain at the house and her feelings towards it remained. Pasijah, who has lived in her house for 35 years, is soaked by water when she steps out. The floor inside has been raised above the water level by using a power pole and bamboo arranged in haphazardly. Demak is 19 km away. The closest land is 2 km (1.24 miles). Only by boat can you get to the island. Indonesia is an archipelago made up of thousands of islands with a coastline of 81,000 km. This makes it vulnerable to erosion and rising sea levels. Kadarsah, an official with Indonesia's Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency, said that sea levels along the coasts of the country rose by 4.25 millimetres per year on average between 1992 and 2024. However, the rate increased in recent years. He said that rising sea levels were a sign of climate change, and added that small islands had vanished. Kadarsah pointed out that increased pumping has also exacerbated the land subsidence along Java’s northern coast. Jakarta, Indonesia's largest city, is especially affected by the problem. It is home to 10 million people. Indonesian authorities are turning to mega-projects for a solution. One of these is a 700-kilometre sea wall along the northern coastline between Banten province and East Java. Pasijah, her family and friends have also turned to the natural world. Over the last two decades, she has planted around 15,000 mangroves trees per year. She paddles in a boat that is made of a blue barrel every day to plant saplings and tend to bushes. Pasijah explained that the flood waters came in waves and not at once. "I realized that I had to plant mangroves after the water began rising. They would spread and protect my house from the wind and waves. Her family and she survive by selling fish that her sons have caught in the market closest to them. They said they would stay until the tide was held back. Pasijah explained, "I don't care about my feelings about being isolated here anymore since I've decided to stay. We'll just take one obstacle at a time." (Reporting and writing by Ajeng dinar Ulfiana; Budi Purwanto and Johan Purnomo. Additional reporting and writing by Stanley Widianto. Editing and editing by Gibran peshimam and Kate Mayberry.
-
Sources say that KKR is among the asset managers competing for Abu Dhabi district cooling business.
Three sources confirmed that KKR, I Squared Capital and other global asset managers are bidding to buy a district cooling company owned by Abu Dhabi’s Multiply Group. The business is part of a $1.5 billion empire run by one of UAE's most powerful sheikhs. As an environmentally-friendly and more cost-effective alternative to air conditioning, district cooling plants deliver chilled water through insulated pipes in order to cool buildings such as offices, factories, and residences. Three people familiar with the situation, who declined to be identified because the details were not public, said that Investcorp is one of the possible suitors. According to the sources, CVC, which is backed by Engie, and National Central Cooling Co (also known as Tabreed) are in a race for a deal worth up to $1 billion. The Abu Dhabi energy and utility firm TAQA also has its eye on the deal. It is nearing its second round, with potential buyers expected next month to submit binding bids. Multiply Capital, I Squared Capital and Tabreed did not respond to requests for comment. Last month, it was reported that Tabreed worked with Citi to develop a possible bid. PCH's interest shows how local investment opportunities are being sought by buyout groups in the Gulf, as governments implement ambitious programs to diversify economies away from oil. Previously, equity firms raised money in the Gulf to invest elsewhere. Last week, KKR was the latest asset manager who announced plans to create a team to pursue Gulf deals in the region. Multiply is owned by IHC. Its chairman, Sheikh Tahnoon Bin Zayed Al Nahyan is the UAE's National Security Advisor and brother of its president. He controls an expansive business empire, including two sovereign funds. S&P Global Market Intelligence reported in January that private equity funds raised $680 billion worldwide in 2024. This is a decrease of 30% from the $966 billion raised by 2023.
-
Trump will expedite the permitting process for 10 mining projects in the US
The White House announced on Friday that it would expedite the permitting process for 10 mining projects in the United States, as part of President Donald Trump’s efforts to increase critical minerals production. These projects, which will supply copper, antimony, and other minerals, have been given FAST-41 status. This is a federal initiative that was launched in 2015 for streamlined approvals of critical infrastructure. The White House announced that it would add more projects. The first 10 are listed publicly on a U.S. Federal website, where the progress of their permits can be tracked. This is part of a Trump administration push for greater transparency. The White House issued a statement saying that "this transparency leads to greater responsibility, ensuring an efficient process." This move will boost a number of projects, including a proposed Idaho gold and antimony mine by Perpetua Resources; a proposed Arizona mine from Rio Tinto; a proposed Montana silver and copper mine by Hecla Mining; an expansion of Albemarle’s Nevada lithium project, a direct lithium extraction project in Arkansas from Standard Lithium and a metallurgical coking coal project in Alabama from Warrior Met Coal. Steel is made from metallurgical coal. Former President Joe Biden has accelerated the Hermosa zinc and manganese project of South32 in Arizona, making it the first mine that received the FAST 41 treatment. Trump ordered earlier this week a probe of potential new tariffs for all U.S. imports of critical minerals, a major escalate in his dispute against global trading partners and an effort to pressure the industry leader China. (Reporting and editing by Lisa Shumaker; Ernest Scheyder)
-
Sources confirm that Petrobras has approved the tender for restarting fertilizer plants in Brazil’s northeast.
According to four sources with knowledge of the matter, the board of Brazilian state oil company Petrobras approved plans on Thursday to select a new partner to restart its fertilizer factories in northeastern Brazil. Sources who asked to remain anonymous because the decision had not been made public said that the move hinged on the resolution of ongoing disputes with the current leaseholder, Unigel. The chemical company Unigel demanded compensation from Petrobras, according to previous reports. This impasse marked a setback in President Luiz-Inacio Lula's plan to reduce Brazil's dependence on imported fertilizer. Brazil, a major agricultural powerhouse in the world, is one of the top importers of fertilizers. It purchases more than 80%. Petrobras has leased to Unigel the two nitrogen fertiliser plants located in Bahia State and Sergipe State in 2019. The agreement is for 10 years. Both facilities were shut down in 2023. Unigel cited unfeasible conditions of operation due to the high price of natural gas in Brazil. Sources claim that Unigel has not yet responded to Petrobras after the board's decision. Petrobras refused to comment upon being contacted by. Unigel didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. Both companies are involved in arbitration related to their lease agreement, which includes disagreements about the shutdown of the operations, Unigel’s investments and gas supply terms. Sources said that a formal tender could only be advanced if an agreement was reached. The arbitration must be completed before the process can proceed. We can't go forward without it," a company source stressed. Second source: If the dispute is fully resolved, Unigel could participate in the next bidding process for the plant to resume operation. (Reporting and writing by Rodrigo Viga Gaier in Rio de Janeiro, Marcela Ayres in London; Editing by Matthew Lewis).
-
Sources diplomatically confirm that Rwanda will allow Southern Africa troops to pass through Congo to Tanzania.
Three diplomatic sources confirmed on Friday that Rwanda had agreed to allow troops sent by the Southern Africa group to fight rebels fighting in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo through its territory, to Tanzania. The 16 member Southern African Development Community announced in mid-March that it had terminated its mandate and was beginning a phased removal of the SAMIDRC force from Congo. Three diplomats who were aware of the ongoing discussions between Rwanda and SADC confirmed that Rwanda accepted the request to allow the troops to travel through the country on land. Two diplomats said that they were informed by the regional force that its weapons would be sealed, for security purposes, but that it will leave Rwandan soil with the troops. When asked to comment, neither the SADC nor the Congolese or Rwandan government spokespeople responded immediately. On Thursday, General Rudzani Maaphwanya of the South African National Defence Force said that a team of technical experts was working in Tanzania on the finer points of their troop removal. In December 2023, SAMIDRC was dispatched to help Kinshasa fight rebel groups in Congo’s war-ravaged eastern borders. Since January, M23 has taken control of east Congo's largest cities. This is an expansion of a long-running war that began with the Rwandan genocide of 1994 and the struggle to control Congo's rich mineral resources. Reporting by Sonia Rolley, Nairobi Newsroom and Paris; Writing by Hereward and George Obulutsa and Editing by Kirby Donovan
Oil traders sanguine about risks from Israel-Iran dispute: Kemp
Petroleum prices have fallen following Iran's rocket and drone assault on Israel, puzzling expectations that the escalation of the shadow war would cause them to rise.
Like major commercial mishaps, extreme relocations in oil rates, spikes or slumps, are constantly the item of multiple aspects instead of a single cause.
Spikes normally take place when the business cycle is mature; stocks are well below regular; spare production capability is low; and there is a real or threatened disturbance to production.
In this instance, nevertheless, the escalation is taking place in a. market that is otherwise easily provided, with inventories. near the long-lasting average and a lot of idle production. capacity.
Traders have concluded Iran will not run the risk of any disturbance of. its exports; the United States will not run the risk of significantly. greater oil prices in an election year; and the United States. will limit the next round of responses by Israel.
As perceptions about the war danger have actually fallen, rates and. calendar spreads have pulled back to pre-crisis levels, with the. underlying principles of production, usage and. inventories reasserting themselves.
SHOCK ABSORBERS
Industrial inventories of crude oil and fine-tuned products. throughout the advanced economies in the Organisation for Economic. Cooperation and Advancement (OECD) were approximated at around. 2,735 million barrels in March.
Commercial inventories were around 95 million barrels (-3%. or -0.61 basic variances) listed below the previous 10-year seasonal. average, based upon an analysis of data from the U.S. Energy. Info Administration (EIA).
The deficit had actually increased from 51 million barrels (2% or. -0.34 standard variances) in December 2023 however was only very. slightly larger than a year ago when it stood at 74 million. barrels (-3% or -0.44 standard discrepancies).
The global market is tightening, but gradually, and. inventories are still relatively comfortable, able to soak up any. short-term disturbances of production.
Chartbook: International oil inventories and rates
Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members in the Middle East were. approximated to have more than 4 million barrels daily of idled. production capability in March, according to the EIA.
Unused capability was at the greatest level given that the. coronavirus pandemic in 2020-2021 and before that the economic downturn. following the financial crisis in 2009-2011.
With comfy stocks and plenty of extra capability,. the marketplace did not appear primed for a large and continual spike. in prices.
Production outside OPEC? is anticipated to grow highly this. year, especially in the United States, Canada, Guyana and. Brazil, enough to cover the increase in consumption in 2024.
Strong production growth is most likely to ensure that. stocks remain reasonably comfy in all but the most. severe circumstances about conflict in the Middle East.
RATES AND SPREADS
Inflation-adjusted front-month Brent futures costs balanced. $ 85 per barrel in March, putting them practically precisely in line. with the long-lasting average considering that 2000.
The futures market had actually currently moved into an aggressive. backwardation, with the front-month agreement trading at an. average premium of practically $4 per barrel compared with the. contract for shipment 6 months later.
The backwardation remained in the 91st percentile, indicating. traders anticipated stocks to diminish even more in the near. term, but with supplies expected to remain comfy in the. longer term.
Saudi Arabia and its OPEC? allies are expected to keep. production cuts through June 2024 to deplete inventories further. and support prices before slowly increasing output in the. 2nd half and into 2025.
U.S. OIL INVENTORIES
In contrast to the remainder of the world, where information on. stocks is only available with a delay of a number of months, if. at all, in the United States the EIA releases stock data with a. lag of less than a week.
With some justification, traders tend to use high-frequency. information on U.S. inventories as a proxy for the. production-consumption balance in the more comprehensive worldwide market.
U.S. business crude stocks were nearly precisely in. line with the previous 10-year seasonal average on April 12, and. there has actually been really little net modification over the last three. months.
Stocks around the shipment point for the NYMEX futures. agreement at Cushing in Oklahoma were 13 million barrels (-29% or. -0.88 basic discrepancies) below the ten-year seasonal average.
The deficit discusses the strong backwardation in both U.S. crude and Brent futures rates, but it has actually been narrowing over. the last 3 months.
U.S. industrial crude stocks follow a. market only a little tighter than the long term average, not the. sort of conditions that precede a large and sustained spike in. rates.
NO CATASTROPHISING
The cycle of retaliation between Iran and Israel has. possible for unrestrained escalation, as each federal government attempts. to restore deterrence and show willpower to domestic and. worldwide audiences.
The conflict could escalate to the point it disrupts. production and tanker traffic from Iran and other countries. around the Gulf. Traders are not disregarding the risk, however treating. it as a less-likely tail risk, rather than a central scenario.
Refusing to catastrophise about loss of Iranian oil. production and closure of the Strait of Hormuz is rational offered. the number of times these extreme situations have actually been forecasted however. failed to materialise over the last 30 years.
The risk of a sudden loss of production and exports is not. no, but nor is it high enough to need costs to rise. sharply to limit consumption, build even bigger inventories. and produce more extra capability to alleviate it.
Unless and until the danger to Gulf production and exports. becomes more concrete, instead of simply perennial speculation,. current prices and spreads look consistent with a market that is. just reasonably tighter than typical.
Related column:
- Oil traders expect stocks to fall significantly after OPEC. extends cuts (March 21, 2024)
- Record U.S. oil and gas production keeps rates under. pressure (March 1, 2024)
- Western Hemisphere oil output rises, with a helping hand. from OPEC (February 21, 2024)
- Why the oil market declines to catastrophise (January 18,. 2024)
John Kemp is a market expert. The views revealed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.
(source: Reuters)