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IMF Chief economist: A long Iran war could require painful central banking tightening
The chief economist of the International Monetary Fund said that central banks may need to inflict more pain on the economy to control inflation caused by the long Middle East conflict than they did for the price spike after the pandemic. In a Tuesday interview, IMF Chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas explained that when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, oil prices rose to $100 per barrel, a post-COVID overheated economy required small increases in interest rates. Gourinchas stated that monetary tightening could be necessary, especially if inflation expectations are unanchored. Gourinchas, who spoke at the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, said that "stepping on the brakes will be painful". You may need to cause a lot of pain to achieve the same result. It's not clear yet how much central banks will need to do in order to combat the rising costs of oil, gas, and other commodities, given the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the conflict. IMF cut its 2026 global economic growth forecast to 3.1% on Tuesday, down 0.2 points since January. This is based on the assumption that the war would be short-lived, and oil prices will average $82 per barrel in 2018. The institution's "adverse scenarios" include a prolonged conflict with oil prices averaging $100 and a slowdown in growth to 2.5%. The "severe" scenario envisions a prolonged conflict with oil prices at $110 and $125 by 2026. The IMF believes that the global economy is on the verge of a recession as growth drops to just 2.0% in this year. Gourinchas says that the main concern is that inflation expectations may become unanchored in a situation like this. He also adds that the inflation shock of 2022?had made consumers hypersensitive to price. He said that companies would "raise their prices more easily" and workers "would seek higher wages faster". "Once we enter that world, the people will look at this and conclude that inflation is here to stay." (Reporting and editing by Kevin Buckland; David Lawder)
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Euro zone faces big growth hit even if Iran war quickly resolved, IMF says
The 'International Monetary Fund' said that the growth of the Eurozone will slow and the inflation rate will rise this year, forcing the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. This is even if the economic disruptions brought on by the Iran War fade by the middle of the year. The euro zone economy, which imports most of its energy needs, is particularly vulnerable to rising energy prices, especially as Russia's conflict in Ukraine has already affected the bloc's ability to access vital resources. Growth is now seen slowing to 1.1% this year from 1.4% in 2025, below the 1.3% predicted in January, as the war ?more than negates better-than-predicted expansion at the end of last year, the IMF said in its World ?Economic Outlook. The IMF stated that "the (war's) impact" will add to the effects of the rising energy prices, which have been a drag on the manufacturing sector since the invasion by Russia of Ukraine. There is also the pressure of the real appreciation in the euro compared to other currencies from countries exporting similar products. The IMF, however, is more optimistic that the ECB which, last month, predicted a 0.9%?growth based on its own baseline before a rapid pickup in 2027. The IMF said that a planned increase in defence spending would mitigate some of the expected drag, but because the spending ramp-up is relatively slow the boost will likely materialise in the future. According to the IMF’s ‘baseline’ projection, the inflation rate will jump from 2.1% to 2.6% by?2026. This assumes the war is limited in duration, intensity and scope. IMF stated that the ECB deposit rate of 2% is likely to 'rise by 50 % basis points over the course 2026 as a response to the inflation increase. The market has predicted this increase and investors have priced in a 'rate hike' by June, assuming that the ECB would want to send a signal early that it won't tolerate inflation that goes beyond energy, and that creates a spiral of self-sustaining prices. The IMF, like the ECB said, that even worse outcomes were possible. Its 'adverse and severe' scenarios predicted a greater impact on global growth and a higher inflation rate. (Reporting and editing by Alistair Bell; Balazs Coranyi)
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MSF reports that drone attacks in Sudan have killed two and injured 56.
Medecins Sans Frontieres reported on Tuesday that it had'recorded two deaths' and treated 56 injured people after five drone attacks carried out by the Sudanese Armed Forces in Darfur. MSF provides medical assistance and responds to emergencies in nine Sudanese states, amid a conflict between the Sudanese Army and?the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. In a press release, the Geneva-based medical charity said that the attacks of the Sudanese?Armed Forces demonstrated complete disregard for civilian lives as Sudan entered its?fourth war year. "We urge the 'warring parties' in Sudan to protect civilians." U.N. Human Rights Office has stated that drone strikes have increased in Sudan in this year, with over 500 civilians killed between January and March. UNICEF's spokesperson for Sudan, Eva Hinds told reporters at the Geneva press conference that "children continue to be the most affected in Sudan, and drones are responsible for nearly 80% of all reported child deaths and injuries." Hinds reported that at least 245 children had been killed or injured during the first three months of 2026. This is a significant increase from?the same time last year. (Reporting and writing by Emma Farge, Geneva; Editing by Madeline Chambers).
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Grocer Albertsons predicts a soft sales forecast for the year as demand remains high
Albertsons' annual sales were below Wall Street estimates on Tuesday. They attributed this to the intense competition between Walmart and Amazon.com, two of its biggest rivals. The shares of the Boise-based grocery store were down by 2% during premarket trading. In 2025, they had fallen by nearly 13%. Albertsons is under pressure to lower prices as larger rivals such as Walmart, Target, and Kroger have slashed the price of essentials in order to attract 'increasingly cost-conscious shoppers. The grocery store, which also operates hundreds of gasoline stations, is at risk as the Iran conflict fuels higher gas prices and weighs on consumer spending, already conservative. Albertsons reported a net loss in the fourth quarter of $480.8M, compared to a profit of $171.8M a year ago. This was due to charges from opioid claims. Albertsons announced on Tuesday that it would pay $774 million in nine years as a settlement to thousands of lawsuits filed by U.S. state governments, local governments, and Native American tribes who claimed the supermarket chain’s?pharmacies fuelled the nation’s opioid epidemic. LSEG data shows that the company's adjusted profit for the fourth quarter of 48 cents a share beat analysts' average estimates of 43 cents. It is expected that fiscal 2026 will see a flat or 1% increase in sales, as opposed to the estimated 1.58% rise. Albertsons expects an adjusted annual profit of between $2.22 and $2.32 per share. The midpoint is slightly below the $2.28 estimate. Rival Kroger has forecast muted sales and profit for March, as it plans to invest cost savings in lower prices and better delivery services. (Reporting by Sanskriti Shekhar in Bengaluru; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar)
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EU Steel Body says that imports curb the spare sector from the cliff edge
Eurofer, the European steel association, said that the EU's?measures aimed at halving the volume of tariff-free steel imported into the EU will prevent the industry from a "cliff-edge moment" and should allow idled plants to resume production. The EU institutions have reached an agreement to limit the tariff-free imports of 18.3 million tons. This is a reduction of 47% compared to 2024. They also agreed to double the duty on goods that exceed quota. The measures will replace existing "safeguards" that, under World Trade Organization regulations, must expire eight years after the date of June 30. Eurofer reported that steel imports to the EU had reached a new record of 9.9 million tonnes in the 'final quarter of 2025. Flat steel products accounted for a third on the EU market. This highlights the need for stricter restrictions. The rise in steel prices is largely due to the 50% tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on U.S. steel and the introduction of the EU border carbon levy, which will take effect in 2026. Eurofer stated that the measures, which are still awaiting final approval, will help to bring back around 15 million tons in EU steel production, and maintain about 30,000 direct jobs in Europe. EU producers are only operating at 65% of their capacity. The association welcomed the fact that the new measures will be reviewed regularly, which could lead to the addition of other steel products or adjustments based upon market developments. "The quotas will be adapted to steel demand." Sara Franzone is the senior manager for international trade at Eurofer. She said, "We have missed this in steel safeguards over the past eight years." She said that the European Commission will also evaluate, based on?market conditions, whether unused import quotas can be rolled over from one quarter to another, which could result in disruptive spikes at the end of the year. (Reporting and editing by Jan Harvey; Philip Blenkinsop)
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Imports of copper concentrate from China in the first quarter are on the rise, as top smelters maintain high output.
China's copper concentrate imports increased in the first quarter of this year, according to official data released by the country on Tuesday. This was despite the fact that processing fees were negative and the top smelter's group had vowed to reduce production. According to the latest data from customs, imports of copper concentrates or ores increased by almost 10% in March to 2,63 million tonnes and by 6.6% in the first three months to 7,56 million tonnes. The China Smelter Purchasing?Team is a group of top copper smelters that agreed to reduce production last year in order to address overcapacity, negative treatment charges and refining costs. This meant smelters paid miners to process the material. There has not been any sign of a reduction in output from major smelters, including Jiangxi Copper Yunnan Copper Daye Nonferrous. They have all said that they plan to increase?or maintain their output in 2026. Analysts and industry insiders say that China's copper producers will likely reconsider their plans to reduce output, as Beijing's export ban on sulphuric acids has tamed a rise in price for the by-product which had compensated for falling processing fees. Data from the General Administration of Customs revealed that China's import of unwrought copper and copper-based products fell 10.9% in March to 416,000 metric tonnes, while falling 14.2% in the first quarter of 2026. The drop was 7.6% in the benchmark copper price for three months at the London Metal Exchange in March, despite the Iran War, which slowed global growth and fueled inflation fears as oil prices surged. The demand for imported cargoes is increasing?since March. The Yangshan copper premium On March 29,, which measures China's appetite to import copper, reached $69 per ton, the highest level since June 2025. On Monday, the premium was $74 per ton. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed, Jan Harvey and Colleen Whate)
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China March steel exports drop as the Mideast War bites
Customs data released on Tuesday showed that China's steel exports in March were down 12.6% compared to the previous year. The Middle East conflict and a new export licensing regime, which was implemented in response to a growing global protectionist backlash, are believed to be the main reasons for the decline. Data from the General Administration of Customs shows that the world's largest producer of steel shipped 9.14 million metric tonnes of metal last month. The metal is used in the construction and manufacturing industries. In February, the country shipped 7.84 million metric tons, and in March 2025 it will ship 10.46 million. Analyst Xinli Ch'u at China Futures said that the improved export margins of some steel products contributed to a monthly?rise. Zhuo Guqiu, a Jinrui Futures analyst, stated that the Middle East conflict has caused a disruption in trade through the Strait?Hormuz. This has led to fewer shipments into the Gulf and consequently, lower steel shipments each year in March. Last year, the Gulf accounted for 16% of China's record steel exports. Several Chinese steel exporters stopped offering their products to Middle East customers as the Iran War, which began in late February, slowed down shipments through the main waterway. Chu, of China Futures, explained that the annual decline was due to a high baseline last year and front-run shipments in response to tariff fears. China's shipments were also affected by the export license system that was implemented in January. China's steel imports fell 9.9% on an annual basis to 24,72 million tons in the first quarter of 2026. This was the lowest level since 2023. IRON ORE IMPORTS China’s iron ore exports to Australia in March grew by 11.5% year-on-year, to 104.74 millions tons. This was due to increased shipments and seasonal restocking of steelmakers anticipating better demand. This compares to 97.64 millions tons in February, and 93.97 in March 2025. Steven Yu, senior analyst with consultancy Mysteel, stated that the increase in iron ore imports was due to an increase in volumes coming from Australia where weather-related impacts were not as severe as last year. Last year, cyclones in Australia disrupted iron ore loadings. Imports of iron ore in the first quarter rose 10.5% on an annual basis to 314.76 millions tons. The higher imports led to an increase in portside inventories Steelhome data showed that by the end of March, the total steel production was up 20% compared to the same period last year. Reporting by Amy Lv, Colleen howe and Christian Schmollinger: Editing by Neil Fullick Christian Schmollinger Harikrishnan Nair
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CarMax reports quarterly loss due to weak demand for used cars and goodwill charges
CarMax, a retailer of used cars, reported a?loss for the fourth quarter on Tuesday. This was due to a goodwill impairment charge and declining margins. In premarket trading, shares of the Richmond-based Virginia company fell 6.8%. Used-car dealers have struggled to sell inventory at a profit, as consumer demand has weakened and import tariffs have squeezed margins. CarMax's gross profit on a used vehicle dropped to $2,115 during the third quarter from $2,322 one year ago. Wholesale gross profit per unit dropped to $940, down from $1,045?a year earlier, as the company cut prices to increase demand. The new CEO Keith Barr stated that the largest U.S. Used-Car retailer is moving with "urgency" in order to improve efficiency and regain sales momentum. Gasoline prices are nearing $4 per gallon and have dampened consumer confidence. This has led to a reduction in spending, and a rise in interest in electric and hybrid cars that are more affordable. CarMax reported that it had recorded a non-cash impairment charge of 141.3 million dollars in the third quarter. It cited a decline in its share price and a weaker performance fiscal 2026. The company's quarterly revenue dropped 1% from $5.95 billion a year earlier. CarMax posted a?loss? of $120.7million, or 85c per share. This compares to a profit?of $89.9million, or 58c per share?a year ago. It earned a?quarterly profit of 34 cents, as compared to 64 cents last year. (Reporting from Nathan Gomes, Bengaluru. Editing by Tasim Zaid)
Shell, unlike BP, allows AGM votes on Follow This Climate resolution
Shell's notice of the meeting states that it will allow its shareholders to vote on a resolution presented by climate activist investor groups Follow This and recommend a negative vote. This'stands in stark contrast to BP whose board decided 'not to include the Follow This Resolution on its agenda. This prompted some of its shareholders, and influential proxy advisor groups, to recommend a vote against the board.
Follow This Resolution calls on Shell to reveal how its strategy will perform in scenarios of declining oil and gas demand. BP said that the resolution is invalid and will be 'ineffective' if passed at their AGM.
Shell stated that Follow This's questions are covered in full by Shell's current?disclosures, which allow shareholders to model the financial strength of the company using any price scenario they choose.
Shell also said that if the Follow This Resolution passed, it would be against "good governance" because it would bind Shell to certain scenarios which are subject to change. Reporting by Shadia Nazarella; Editing and proofreading by Kirovan Donovan
(source: Reuters)