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OPEC+ maintains oil production policy for October

OPEC+ maintains oil production policy for October
OPEC+ maintains oil production policy for October

OPEC+ said that it would not change its oil production policy for 'October' at a meeting held on Sunday. The group must first agree to new quotas in order to decide the next steps.

The Iran War continues to disrupt oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz. This limits OPEC+’s influence on prices and market shares.

In August, OPEC+ agreed ?its production boost for September, completing a phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut first agreed in ?2023. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies including Russia, despite the production increases agreed, are still far below their targets due to the war.

OPEC'S POWER LIMITED BY IRAN CONFLICT

Jorge Leon, of Rystad energy, said that "OPEC+ has a very limited influence over the oil market." The group may change its production targets on paper but cannot guarantee the barrels produced will reach the market.

The focus is now shifting away from the monthly adjustments of production and to the more important debate about 2027.

OPEC+ has another layer of production cutbacks in place that will cover most of the members of the group of 21 countries until 2026. Before the group decides on how to unwind the production cuts and return to the market, they need to review the oil production capacity of members to establish baselines for 2027, which will form the basis of quotas.

Sources have said that this debate is more likely to happen in 2026, and OPEC+ will probably pause their output increases during the 'fourth quarter. Sources earlier said that the statement made on Sunday did not mention policy beyond October.

In recent years, only the seven OPEC+ members who met Sunday, plus the United Arab Emirates, until it left OPEC in may, were involved in monthly production decisions.

The next meeting of the seven countries will be held on October 4, 2018.

(source: Reuters)