Latest News

Can China do the same with fuels as it did for oil? Russell

The dramatic reduction in China's crude oil imports is credited with preventing prices from rising during the Iran conflict.

The question now is whether the world’s largest oil importer will be able to do the same for markets that are increasingly stressed.

In June, China's imports of crude oils by sea fell to their lowest level in over a decade. According to commodity analysts?Kpler, arrivals were 5.96 million barrels a day.

This was down from an average of 10,66 million bpd during the three months prior to the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, which began a conflict which resulted in a closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The United States and Iran reached a 60-day ceasefire in June, which raised hopes for the reopening of the narrow waterway that carried about 20% global crude oil and refined products prior to the conflict.

The ceasefire was broken last week when the United States and Iran struck each other and Tehran attacked ships that were passing through the Strait of Hormuz without clearance.

The number of tankers moving through the strait is likely to drop dramatically as the conflict resumes, but enough crude was moved during the short ceasefire that Asia's refining plants will likely be well-supplied until the end September.

Fuel Pressure

The global market is tightening, as Russia has banned the export of diesel following drone attacks on its refineries.

The ban is coming at a time when the north hemisphere's peak agricultural and construction demand will be met.

The lower Middle East shipments are causing a decline in volumes of refined products in Asia.

Asia's imports both of light and middle distillates fell to 5,19 million bpd, the lowest since Kpler records dating back to 2017. They are down 32% compared to the average 6.85 million bpd for the three-month period leading up to Iran conflict.

China's informal ban on the export of several refined products was seen by many as an attempt to secure domestic supplies after the Iran War began.

Kpler tracked shipments of 350,000 barrels per day.

This was a small improvement, with a rise of 411,000 bpd to 423,000 bpd by June. However, this is still below the average 719,000 bpd for the three months before the Iran War.

China will export more refined products after Beijing eased its unofficial restrictions and allowed at least one refinery to resume shipments along with state-controlled refineries.

According to sources in China, exports of diesel and jet fuel could reach 3 million metric tonnes in July. This is equivalent to a little under 800,000 barrels per day.

Kpler estimates China's refined products exports to be 585,000?bpd in July. However, this number is likely going to increase as more cargoes get assessed.

ENOUGH HELP?

Market participants are wondering if this will be enough to relieve supply pressures. While it's a great help, Asia's refined product imports are likely to remain below the levels that were normal before the Iran conflict.

The prices of refined products remain higher than before the war, and crude oil is still priced at a premium.

Singapore 'gasoil, which is the main component of diesel, was last traded at $137.72 per barrel. It has steadily risen since it dropped to $109.35 on 23 June amid initial relief over the ceasefire agreement.

Gasoil has also risen 51% from the $91.42 per barrel on February 27, just one day before the conflict began, while Brent crude futures, the global benchmark for crude oil, ended at $83.30 a barrel on Monday, an increase of 14.9% compared to February 27.

The Middle East is facing renewed threats and there are depleted inventories around the globe. It's likely that the refined products prices will continue to rise, even if crude futures markets keep pricing in a solution to the Iran War.

Another point is that high prices for refined fuels could encourage China to continue exporting in order to allow its refiners to capture large margins.

Beijing may decide to dip into their huge stockpiles, in the hope that oil will become cheaper once the Middle East conflict is resolved and ships can move freely.

You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X.

These are the views of a columnist who writes for.

(source: Reuters)