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China increases retail fuel prices by the most in four years, amid Iran War
China raised retail prices of 'gasoline and Diesel on Monday in the biggest increase since March 2022, after a spike in international oil prices due to the U.S./Israeli war against Iran. According to a?notice from the National Development and Reform Commission, the retail price cap for gasoline and diesel in the second largest oil consumer of the world will increase by 695 Yuan ($100.46), and 670 Yuan ($96.84), respectively, starting Tuesday. The previous adjustment was made on 24 February. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, had risen by 27% and West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI futures) were up 35.6% in the last week. China asked refiners last week to halt fuel exports, and cancel any shipments already committed due to the Iran war. China's state planner reviews gasoline and diesel retail prices every 10 days and makes uniform adjustments throughout the country, although benchmark prices may vary by region. The adjustment rate reflects changes in crude oil prices internationally while also taking average processing costs into consideration, as well as taxes, distribution expenses, and appropriate profit margins. China allows gasoline and diesel retail?prices to float freely from floor to ceiling. Retail fuel prices are not generally raised when crude oil reaches $130 per barrel. Retail fuel prices are calculated according to price adjustment mechanisms when crude prices drop to $40 or less per barrel.
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Pakistan Cenbank maintains rate at 10% as oil prices cloud inflation outlook
Pakistan's Central Bank kept its 'key policy rate' at 10.5%, pausing the easing cycle due to a resurgence in global energy prices and regional tensions. The State Bank of Pakistan's website announced that the Monetary Policy Committee had decided to maintain the policy rate at 10.5 percent. A detailed statement will be released shortly. SBP cut the key rate cumulatively by 1,150 basis points from a record high of 22% in mid-2024. The escalating tensions in the Middle East are causing?concerns over disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This is a major artery for oil supplies worldwide, driving energy prices up. Pakistan imports the majority of its energy, so domestic inflation is sensitive to global fuel prices. It raised the prices of diesel and petrol by about 20% on Friday. The higher prices were attributed to the conflict in Iran. Jameel Ahmad, the Governor of the Central Bank, has previously stated that "the economy can grow between 3.75% and 4.5% in FY26 due to stronger domestic demand, earlier monetary easing, and inflation could temporarily exceed 5%-7% this year, before it eases. Pakistan is part of an ongoing $7 billion IMF program. The Fund urges policymakers to keep monetary policies tight and data-dependent in order to anchor inflation expectations, and strengthen external buffers. Reporting by Ariba in Karachi, Editing by YPrajesh
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UK is talking with partners about how to limit the economic impact of the Iran crisis, according to PM
British Prime Minister Keir 'Starmer'?said Monday that his government was talking with international partners about how to reduce the economic impact of the Iranian crisis. The conflict in the Middle East poses a greater risk to Britain than to many other European nations, so Starmer is under pressure to try and reassure British businesses and consumers. Starmer, at an event in London said that "the job of government is to get ahead and look around the corner. To work with others." The government, she added, was also "talking with our international partners, about what more we can all do to reduce the impact on the people here." Investors have reduced their bets that the Bank of England will cut interest rates this year, since the start of the Iran war last week. Starmer stated that it was important to acknowledge the need to work to 'limit the economic impact of war', given Monday's surge in oil prices. He said: "People, and you, will feel, that the longer this continues, the greater the likelihood of an economic impact." (Reporting and writing by Sam Tabahriti; editing by Kate Holton, Michael Holden and Sarah Young)
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Guinea dissolves 40 political parties, opposition leader cries foul
Guinea's main opposition leader said "direct resistance" to the ?country's coup leader-turned-president was now the only ?way to bring about change after the government consolidated its ?position by dissolving 40 political ?parties. Mamady Doumbouya is a former special forces commander who seized power from his rivals in December 2021. In the West African country, rich in bauxite ore and iron, legislative elections are scheduled for May. The Ministry of Territorial Administration and Decentralization in Guinea announced late Friday night that the headquarters and local offices of 40 political parties would be closed and that use of their logos, acronyms and "other distinctive signs" was prohibited. The decree stated that the parties failed to comply with?legal requirements such as filing financial reports; however, several of the political?parties dissolved have protested and maintained?that they had met all legal requirements. Cellou Dalein Diallo, Guinea's principal opposition leader, said in a video posted on social media Sunday that "war had been declared openly" against Doumbouya’s opponents. He called for Guineans "direct resistance" without specifying how that would look. He said that political change could not be achieved through democratic or dialogue processes. He said that the head of the junta, and his "malevolent" clique, wanted to rewrite history in the country by erasing all forces from the political landscape which could threaten his new one-party system. The government spokesperson didn't respond to our request for comment. Diallo, like former President Alpha Conde (whom Doumbouya overthrew and whose party dissolved last Friday), is exiled outside of the country. Guinea has had a long history of political violence, which included the disputed 2020 election that Diallo claimed to have won. The December 2025 elections were tightly controlled, and there were no major security incidents. Reporting by Guinea Newsroom; Writing and editing by PhilippaFletcher.
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Von der Leyen: EU cannot rely on rules-based system to combat threats.
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, said that on Monday. The EU needs to be more assertive in its projection of power. It can't rely on a?rules-based?system for defending itself against threats. "We will always defend and uphold our rules-based system that we built with our allies.?But we cannot rely on this as the only way to protect our interests.?Or assume that its rules will shield us from the threats we face." von der Leyen stated at a conference of EU ambassadors. "We need to urgently reflect on whether our doctrine, institutions and decision-making - designed for a 'post-war world of multilateralism and stability - have kept pace with the rate of change around us. She added that the system we created, with its many well-intentioned efforts at compromise and consensus, was either a help or hindrance to our credibility as a geopolitical player. (Reporting and writing by Lili Bayer, Makini Brice, and Bart Meijer).
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Ferrexpo warns of risk posed by collapsed Swiss bank
The iron-ore pellet manufacturer?Ferrexpo warned on Monday of "material 'negative consequences" unless they secure alternative?banking agreements after a collapse in a Swiss banking partner MBaer, which sent shares down 4%. Ferrexpo AG's Swiss subsidiary (FAG), had a banking arrangement with MBaer Merchant Bank AG. The bank is slated to be closed by the Swiss financial regulator for alleged money laundering violations and breaches of sanctions against Iran and Russia. Ferrexpro used the bank for 'commercial payments outside Ukraine' and said that MBaer holds about $3 million with FAG. Ferrexpo stated that the collapse of Ferrexpo's Ukraine subsidiaries will not have a material effect on them, but it is restricted in its ability?to make payments outside Ukraine. Ferrexpo stated that FAG expects to be able to recover the deposit?with MBaer?in full. However, at this time, it is not known when they will be able to. After the conflict in Ukraine affected power supplies in the'region, the company?also announced that it had re-started production in its struggling unit Ferrexpo Poltava Mining.
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India: Oil price rise unlikely to cause inflation to spike sharply
India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman stated on Monday that the country does not expect the inflation rate to increase significantly as a result of a?"jump" in crude oil prices caused by the?war in the Middle East. Domestic price levels are still a "bit below the lower end of the central banks tolerance band." Early trade saw oil prices rise by 26%, the highest level since July 2022. This was after Iran announced that Mojtaba Khmenei would succeed his father Ayatollah Ayatollah Khamenei who had been killed in an air strike by Israel and the United States a little over a week earlier. The major Middle Eastern oil producers have cut their supply because they can't safely ship shipments across the Strait of Hormuz. Mojtaba was appointed after Donald Trump, the U.S. president, had rejected him earlier as a possible candidate for Iran's supreme leader. Israel also said it would target anyone who leads Iran. Sitharaman, in a written response to parliament, said that global oil prices, including India's crude, had been falling for over a year, until the conflict in the region escalated on February 28. The Indian basket increased from $69.01 per barrel at the end of February to $80.16 per barrel on March 2. According to the government, there will be a limited impact on consumer prices for now. Sitharaman stated that the impact of inflation on India is not expected to be significant at this time, given the fact that the country's inflation rate is close to the lower limit. Retail inflation in January was 2.75 percent, which is close to the bottom of Reserve Bank of India’s target range of 2%-6%. She said that the RBI's Monetary Policy Report for October 2025 estimated a 10% rise in crude oil prices would raise inflation by 30 basis points if it were to be fully passed through to domestic fuel costs. Sitharaman said, "However the medium-term effect of a?global crude oil price increase?on the inflation depends on a number of factors, including exchange rate fluctuations, global demand-supply situation, monetary policies transmission, state of general inflation and the extent the indirect pass-through." Reporting by Sarita Chantanti Singh, Editing by Raju Gopikrishnan
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Wanhua Chemical, a Chinese company, declares force majeure for Middle East supplies
A?representative of Wanhua Chemical said that the company has declared "force majeure" on its Middle East clients. According to an email sent by Wanhua to its customers and seen here, the 'force majeure' - a clause in a contract which relieves parties of their obligations due to a unforeseen event - took effect on March 7th. The letter said: "We face the'severe disruption of the shipping routes in Strait of Hormuz which makes?delivery unreasonably unsafe or impossible." According to traders, the petrochemical major sells its derivatives like isocyanates - a building block used in polyurethane for furniture, bedding and automobile interiors - mainly to Middle East. The company operates two crackers with a combined ethylene production capability of?2.2 million tons per annum? at its site in Yantai, in the Shandong Province. Two sources with knowledge of the situation said that both crackers continue to run at high rates. Wanhua refused to comment when asked if?production cuts were made at the two crackers. Reporting by Trixie YAP and Chen Aizhu, additional reporting by Siyi Liu. Editing by Kirby Donovan.
McGeever: Wall Street's immunity against the Mideast oil shock is now being tested.
Wall Street was awash with complacency as oil prices soared by 30% and global stocks fell. Investors are likely to have bet that the turmoil would have a?short-lived and mild economic impact', similar to most crises of recent years. Is it a market inefficient or is this wishful thinking? Soon we'll find out. West Texas?Intermediate Crude rose 35% in the past week. This is the largest weekly increase?since U.S. benchmark oil futures were introduced in 1983. Yet the S&P?500 only fell 2%. The Nasdaq fell just over 1%.
What is going on?
Investors may think that the U.S. has a better chance of coping with an energy shock because it is a net exporter. There could be a lingering belief in "U.S. exceptionalalism". Geopolitical risks are notoriously hard to value, so it's possible that many asset managers simply wait for clarity and sit on their hands.
Whatever the cause, it is possible that this optimism is either misplaced or complacent.
Take a look at this. According to The Kobbeissi Newsletter, a global market newsletter, in the first 41 trading day of 2026 the S&P 500 trading range was only 2.7%. This is based on the difference between daily closing prices. This is the smallest range ever recorded for this period, dating back to 1928. This will be put to the test. Brent and WTI both soared above $100 a barrel on Monday, putting oil on course for its largest daily gain in decades. The prices were up by more than 25% during the?Asian hours of trading, but have since retreated.
Stock markets in other countries have also been shook. The benchmark European, Asian, and emerging markets indices that fell 5-7 % last week are now suffering even more losses. Japan's Nikkei index is down 5% more today. Korea's benchmark index has also fallen.
These countries, however, are net importers of energy, which means they are more vulnerable to historical spikes in the price of oil and gas than the United States. Japan, for instance, imports 90% its energy. 95% of the oil it imports comes from the Middle East.
Can Wall Street still be an outlier
WON'T HISTORY REPEAT ITSSELF? The Middle East conflict is a terrible time for the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve had set a 2% inflation target, but the rate of inflation was at 3%. Payroll data released on Friday revealed that the U.S. lost 92,000 jobs during February. Fed officials are unable to ignore the growing stench of stagflation. Wall Street, or more likely bond investors, could condemn Jerome Powell and Kevin Warsh if they take a dovish position in the future, risking letting inflation out of hand. They also risk angering the markets if, instead of focusing on price stability and growth, they adopt a hawkish anti-growth stance.
But policy paralysis is also not good. Investors seem to be betting that history will repeat itself. Most recent bouts of geopolitical volatility have been accompanied by a few weeks' mild volatility and then a rapid recovery.
According to research by Parag Thatte at Deutsche Bank, geopolitical events have a negative impact of?around 6-8% over the following three-week period. The markets recover these losses within three more weeks. Larry Adam, Raymond James' chief investment officer, says that the S&P 500 is higher one, three and six months after geopolitical events. JPMorgan analysts claim that a typical scenario for a geopolitical shock is a stock decline of 5-6%, followed by a recovery within a couple weeks.
They wrote that macro-strategists tend to ignore geopolitics and oversimplify their response, saying "just buy the dip". This rule of thumb was true 80% of the times over the past 60 years.
They added, "We believe the current episode of the Iran invasion is a scenario where you buy the dip."
But the drawdowns seem to be getting smaller, and there was hardly a dip on Friday to buy. Now that computers do the trading, are markets becoming smarter and able to see 'through headline noise? Perhaps the 'playbook' of past crises is still relevant. Has complacency taken hold, or is it different this time?
Wall Street futures were down on Monday morning, even though the jury has not yet been seated. A verdict could be coming soon.
The opinions here are those expressed by Jamie McGeever a columnist at. Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
(source: Reuters)