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As the Middle East war intensifies, aluminium resumes its ascent and is expected to have its best week in over 18 months.
Aluminum prices rose 'again' on Friday, after breaking a three-day winning streak in the previous session. They were on their way to their biggest weekly increase in more than 18-months as a result of?supply -concerns resulting from the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. As of 1050 GMT, the benchmark three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange had increased by 1.5% to $3,346.50 a metric tonne. Aluminium, a metal used for packaging and transportation, reached a four-year high of $3.418 per metric ton on Wednesday. The Mideast crisis was threatening to stop shipments. LME aluminum was expected to rise 6.6% in the coming week. This would be its biggest weekly gain since August 2024. The Qatari smelter Qatalum & Aluminium Bahrain has already declared force majeure for shipments. Bank of America stated in a report that "given the Middle East represents around 9% of global production and is under threat, we have increased our shortfall prediction to 1.5 million from 1 million" for 2026. Israel has retaliated against Iran by pounding the Lebanese city of Beirut in an expansion of its war. LME aluminium inventories The Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminium stock fell by 2,250 tons to 456,875 tonnes, the lowest level since July 2025. The highest level since April 2020, 394 498 tons rose 10.8% in a week. LME copper, meanwhile,?fell 0.3%, to $12,858 per ton. This was due to high inventories. Copper stock in LME warehouses The total?total?of 284,325 metric tons has risen by 2,450 tons. This is the highest since October 2024. Copper used in construction, manufacturing, and power was heading for a weekly drop of 3.6%. Zinc rose?1.3%, lead 0.2%, nickel 0.5%, and tin 0.2%. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi, Harikrishnan Nair, and Jan Harvey; Additional reporting in London by Tom Daly)
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Stocks drop as Gulf oil supply concerns rattle markets
European stocks fell along with U.S. Futures?on friday as the U.S. -Iran War prompted fresh concerns about oil supply, prompting traders rethinking their expectations 'for central bank rate reductions. Benchmark global and U.S. Oil prices have reached their highest level since mid-2024. ?U.S. The dollar has risen, but Treasuries have fallen for a fifth consecutive day. Futures for U.S. S&P 500 index and Nasdaq fell by 0.29% a 0.38%, respectively. The STOXX 600 index in Europe fell 0.15% during choppy trading. This reversed a rise of nearly 0.5% that had occurred earlier as oil prices seemed to stabilize. QATAR WARNS ABOUT DRAMATIC IMPACT OF ENERGY MARKETS Qatar's Energy Minister told Financial Times that all Gulf producers will shut down their exports in a few weeks, driving oil prices up to $150 per barrel and causing extensive economic damage. The warning by Qatar's energy ministry that a prolonged war could bring the economies of other countries to a halt has once again shaken financial markets, said Susannah Streeter. Chief investment strategist at Wealth Club. U.S. crude prices have risen to $84.90 - the highest level since April 2024. Brent crude futures reached their highest level since July 2024, at $87.66 per barrel. The price of Brent crude futures rose to its highest level since July 2024 at $87.66 a barrel. TRADERS Slash RATE Cut Bets Money market traders who bet on interest rate reductions predict a drop of 35 basis points from the U.S. Federal Reserve in this year. This is down from 55 basis points about a week earlier. The 10-year Treasury yields in the United States rose by 2 basis points on Friday, to 4.17%. They are on track for a 20-bps weekly rise. This is the biggest move since April 2025. However, the biggest impact was felt by Europe which relies more on imports of oil and gas. After dumping previous bets that the European Central Bank would cut interest rates, traders now believe the bank will increase rates by the end of the year. After betting on two rate cuts in February, they now only see a 60% probability of a Bank of England cut this year. Matt Britzman is senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. We'd expect volatility to remain high as long as uncertainty persists. STOCKS Slack as Dollar Gains Investors sought safety in cash this week as the conflict in the Middle East wracked the global markets. They realised that the war might last longer than originally anticipated. The dollar index (which tracks the currency's performance against six other currencies) rose by 0.18% Friday, and is on course for a weekly gain of 1.6%, which would be the largest in more than a year. The MSCI world stock index is on track to drop 2.7%, the largest weekly fall since March 2025. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan dropped?0.2%, and was on track to drop 6% in a week. This would be its biggest weekly decline since March 2020. At 8:30 am ET, 1330 GMT, the U.S. government will release potentially market-moving data. This includes non-farm payrolls. ET). Gold spot was unchanged at $5,086 per ounce but was heading for a weekly decline of 3%. Harry Robertson, Jamie Freed and Kate Mayberry edited the story.
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Andy Home: The fragility of the Western aluminum market is exposed by the war between Iran and ROI
The Iran War has exposed a growing vulnerability of the West in its supply of aluminum, a metal that is classified by the United States as a crucial manufacturing input. The London Metal Exchange's (LME) aluminum price reached a four-year peak of $3,418 a metric ton Wednesday, after a Gulf producer, Qatalum, a joint venture between Norsk Hydro, Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing and Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing started powering down its smelter, and another, Aluminum Bahrain, declared force majeure. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed, and this could cause further disruptions to the'regional production hub' that provides 23% of non Chinese supply. High inventories and excess capacity in China have historically protected the aluminium market from such unanticipated supply shocks. Producers would increase run-rates when they saw prices rising. China has no spare capacity and the inventory cover is much lower. This makes the market more vulnerable to disruptions like those currently occurring in the Middle East. DWINDLING STOCKS Daily stock reports from the LME show that aluminium is leaving LME warehouses at Port Klang in Malaysia, at a rate of 2,000 tonnes per day since January. No one has really paid attention. LME Aluminium stocks have lost much of their power as a signal over the last 10 years, as traders and bankers fought for metal in order to lock up lucrative warehouse deals. The resultant churn of metal moving in and out the LME warrant system obscured any reading-through to what happened in?the actual supply chain. The daily stock noise is masked by a gradual depletion of a mountain of aluminium that was 3 million tons at the beginning of the decade. The combined registered and off warrant stocks at the end of February totaled 583,000 tonnes, the lowest since the?LME began publishing off-warrant inventories figures in 2020. A significant portion of the remaining stocks is Russian aluminum, which made up 58% of the warranted stock at the end January. This is not very useful to most Western buyers. The U.S., Britain and EU banned the importation of Russian metal in 2024 in order to stop Moscow funding its war against Ukraine. The amount of metal that can be used in the LME is much smaller than what the headline figures suggest. CHINA HITS BRAKES The change in stock dynamics reflects the profound structural changes that have occurred within aluminium's industry. The Chinese government has mandated a maximum annual production capacity of 45 million tonnes. According to the International Aluminium Institute, Chinese production growth has slowed down from 4% to 2% in 2018. Smelters produced 44,5 million tons of aluminium annually in December. China's trade relationship with the rest is changing due to the production slowdown. Chinese manufacturers are importing more metals, especially from Russia. According to World Bureau of Metal Statistics which uses official customs data, the world's biggest producer imported a total of 2.5 million tons of primary metal last year, including just over one million tons of unwrought aluminum. China is exporting fewer semi-manufactured goods, such as tube, sheet or foil. In 2025, outbound shipments dropped by almost 10% on an annual basis, which is equivalent to a loss of nearly 600,000 tonnes in the Western market. Other words, China imports more aluminum metal and exports fewer finished goods, tightening Western supplies at both ends. FLAT-LINING Western smelters are even less flexible than their Chinese counterparts. According to IAI, production outside of China was flat last year. The price of energy is the main problem, as it is a key cost component for the electrolytic smelting process. The U.S., Europe, and Asia have a large amount of idle smelter capacities, but they must compete for limited long-term energy supplies with other sectors. High power prices are continuing to put a strain on existing plants. South32 has placed its Mozambique Smelter under care and maintenance after failing to secure an economically viable electricity contract. The West's ability? to build long-term supply resilience is further undermined by the energy shock that the Iran war has brought. NEW VOLATILITY Aluminium is an essential part of our modern lives. It's used everywhere from cars to homes and food packaging. The energy transition is also a key issue. In 2020, the World Bank declared aluminium a metal with "high impact" and "cross cutting" in all green energy technologies. It is a metal that faces ever greater price volatility, as the global markets emerge from a period of "surplus" to one in which supply appears more problematic and stock levels are lower. The war in Iran is a warning for an important metal. Andy Home is a journalist. This column is a favorite of yours? 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Asia refineries reduce oil spills in the Middle East
The U.S. and Israel war against?Iran disrupted oil imports from the Middle East into?Asia. Some Asian refineries had to reduce their runs, while petrochemical firms declared force majeure. The newest developments are listed below: Zhejiang Petrochemical Corp, a major ?Chinese ?refiner backed by Saudi Aramco, has shut a 200,000-barrel-per-day unit, bringing forward maintenance in response to the Middle East conflict's impact on crude supply. Two industry sources said that FREP (Fujian Refining and Petrochemical Co.), a Chinese refiner backed up by Aramco and operating its 80,000 bpd unit – its smallest – had shut down its 80,000 bpd unit for an unknown period of time. The independent Chinese refiners have sufficient supply to weather any disruptions caused by the conflict in Iran. This is boosted by recent record purchases from Iran and Russia crude oil and robust government stocks, according to traders. People familiar with the situation?said that China also urged companies to stop signing new contracts for exporting refined fuel and to try to cancel any shipments already committed. India's Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals has shut a crude unit and some secondary units at ?its 300,000-barrel-per-day refinery due to oil ?shortage, sources said. SOUTH KOREAN According to a source familiar with the situation and a letter from the company, the South Korean petrochemical firm Yeochun NCC cut its production and declared force majeure over its supply because it was unable to get naphtha due to the Strait of Hormuz Blockade. SINGAPORE The Singapore petrochemical company PCS declared force majeure for shipments because the Middle East war had disrupted maritime transport and supply chains. This was according to three people who have knowledge of this matter. Aster Chemicals and Energy, a major Singaporean petrochemical and refiner, has declared force majeure in regards to supplies, according to a spokesperson for the company. Products that are covered by force majeure include propylene and ethylene. Sources said that Aster's Steam Cracker, which restarted in February, was operating at 50% capacity on Friday. INDONESIA In a press release reviewed by?, Chandra Asri, an Indonesian petrochemical manufacturer declared "force majeure" on all its contracts due to the Middle East conflict disrupting its raw materials supply. VIETNAM In a recent statement, Binh Son Refining & Petrochemicals?asked the government to limit crude exports to the end of this year's third quarter to ensure national safety. (Reporting and editing by Nivedita Battacharjee; Ruth Chai)
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In a report published before the Iran war, Poland's central bank says that CPI will be within target until 2028.
In a report published?Friday by the central bank of Poland, the inflation rate is expected to stay within the target range until the end of 2028. However, the data used in the report predated the beginning of the Middle East conflict. In 'its 'March forecasts, the National?Bank Polska projected that inflation would reach 2.3% this yeaar, 2.4% in the year 2027, and 2.3% in the year 2028. This is around the middle of central bank target of 1.5%-3.5%. The report stated that growth will be slightly slower this year at 3.9%, down from 4.0% by 2025. Since the weekend, the U.S. &?Israel have bombarded Iran, killing the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as the opening salvos in the conflict. Iran responded by launching strikes in the region, and closing the Strait of Hormuz. This is the area that handles one-fifth of daily world oil supplies. Crude oil will likely see its biggest weekly gain in the last four years. This is fueling fears of a faster inflation around the world. Ludwik Kótecki, a central bank official at TOK FM, said on Friday that the war in the Middle East has made it more difficult to reduce interest rates in Poland. The Polish Monetary Policy Council may lower interest rates if the situation stabilizes quickly. According to LSEG, swaps traders expect a three-quarter-point drop in the key rate by year's end. In its report on Friday, the central banks predicted that economic growth would be driven by a continued "robust" domestic consumption. Over the forecast period of three years, an acceleration in investments is expected, due to?increased expenditure on energy transformation, construction of railway infrastructure, a new airport and military equipment purchases. The report stated that the expected peak in?European Union funding will also be an important driver this year. However, "over a longer projection horizon...the reduced use of these fund will translate into a slower pace of investment and economic activity," The report says that the expansion of the EU CO2 emissions trading system into new sectors could have a significant impact on energy prices and inflation in 2028, but it's not clear what price levels they will be. Reporting by Pawel Florkiewicz, Editing by Kevin Buckland
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As the Iran war intensifies, stocks are gaining but will still suffer steep losses each week
European stocks were up while U.S. Futures were little changed on Friday, as oil prices stabilized. Global equities are still on course for their steepest drop weekly in a decade - the Middle East conflict is showing no signs of abating. The dollar, which had risen by around 1.4% in the past week, is now 'flat'. Treasuries and Asian stocks both steadied, as investors awaited important U.S. employment data due later that day. Matt Britzman is a senior equity analyst with Hargreaves Lansdown. He said that global markets were looking more positive, even if just a little, today. This was largely due to a drop in oil prices following a volatile energy market week. In early European trading the STOXX 600 index in Europe rose 0.45%, while Germany's DAX grew 0.75%. The FTSE 100 of Britain also increased by 0.48%. The futures on the U.S. S&P 500 index and Nasdaq index were unchanged. Investors were frightened by the possibility that the U.S. and Israel war against Iran could last longer than originally anticipated. They sought safety in cash. The MSCI world stock index is on course to fall 2.6%, the largest weekly drop since March 2025. The traders also began to price in the more hawkish expectations of major central banks. They were frightened by the prospect that inflation would rise if energy prices continue to spike. The yields on U.S. Treasuries jumped 18 basis points, the highest in almost a year, and the dollar is set to make its biggest weekly gain in sixteen months. OIL STEADIES as U.S. mulls action Oil prices stabilized on Friday, as investors weighed up U.S. attempts to limit fuel price increases. This helped ease market concerns over inflation and economic damage. Brent crude futures are roughly stable at $85.60 a barrel, the highest level since July 2024. They are on course for a weekly increase of 18%, the biggest since Russia's full-scale invasion in Ukraine in February 2022. U.S. crude remained flat at $81 per barrel, bringing its weekly gain up to over 20%. A senior White House official revealed that the U.S. Treasury Department was considering actions to curb the rise in energy prices. The U.S. granted a temporary waiver on Thursday to allow India the right to purchase Russian oil. Investors are increasingly concerned that the spike in oil prices will continue, pushing inflation up around the globe, said Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank, the global head of macro-research. He said: "The truth is that we continue trading competing headlines with risk appetite swinging in and out over the past 24 hours." High-Flying Trades TUMBLE MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose by 0.2% but was expected to drop?6% this week. This would be its biggest weekly?drop in six years. South Korea's Kospi is on track to have its biggest weekly drop in six years, with a 10.5% decline. This is part of an ongoing trend where previously high-flying investments are now falling as investors look to reduce their exposure to global markets. The U.S. dollar paused Friday, but it was still on course for a gain of up to 1.4% on a weekly basis. This was boosted by the demand for safe havens and lower expectations about rate easing in the U.S. The euro, still vulnerable to an increase in energy costs, is expected to drop 1.7% this week. Investors now expect the Federal Reserve to ease by 40 basis points this year, down from 56 bps last week. Investors expect the European Central Bank to raise rates before year's end. At 8:30 am ET, 1330 GMT, the U.S. government will release potentially market-moving data. This includes non-farm payrolls. ET). The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds was last stable at 4.15%. Gold spot was unchanged at $5,106 per ounce in other parts of the world, but it was heading for a weekly decline of 3%. Reporting by Harry Robertson, Rae Wee and Jamie Freed in Singapore. Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Kate Mayberry.
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Singapore's Aster declares Force Majeure due to disruption of raw material supply
Aster Chemicals and Energy, a major Singapore refiner and petrochemical company, has declared force majeure regarding supplies. The reason given was a disruption in raw materials due to the Middle East conflict. The joint venture of trading major Glencore and Indonesia's Chandra Asri operates ?a 237,000 barrel-per-day refinery and 1.1- million-metric-ton-per-year cracker in ?Singapore's Bukom and Jurong Island. The?spokesperson said that "this step is administrative and is a result of a thorough assessment of the potential consequences on our ability to?fulfill obligations to customers." The products were not affected by any?details. The spokesperson responded to a question by saying that the reduced run rate was across all of our plants in order to manage feedstock responsibly and maintain safe operation, but did not comment on the specific rates. Two sources, as well as a letter that was reviewed, said that ethylene and propylene were covered by the force majeure, but the company did not comment. The?two sources said that Aster's Steam?cracker has been running at about 50% since it was restarted in February after a prolonged maintenance period and force majeure last August.
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Asia's options for diversifying energy dependence from the Middle East are limited
Asian energy buyers are scrambling for alternatives, as the Iran War creates an unprecedented disruption in supply. However, the region's options to reduce its heavy dependence on Middle Eastern oil are limited. The top crude-importing region in the world buys 60% its oil and petrochemicals feedstocks from 'the Middle East.' This war, which began with a slew of israeli and american attacks on Iran a week ago, has driven up?global fuel prices and threatened to hurt economic growth. Refiners in Southeast Asia, China, and other parts of Asia, are unable to get Middle Eastern crude. They are forced to look for alternatives, which can take weeks or even months, and some have cut production. China, Thailand and Vietnam suspended the export of oil products this week while Vietnam stopped crude exports to Australia. Alternative sources are not without their drawbacks. These include distance, refinery configurations and long-term contracts. Orders need to be made three months ahead of time for oil that is shipped from West Africa or the Americas. Comparatively, it takes about 25 days for the oil to reach China through the Strait of Hormuz. The refineries must also adjust their operations to accommodate the change in crude grade. If you add a new crude to the refinery you must change the cutoff point (boundaries that separate crude into different products). You must change the gasoline blend. You have to make a number of changes. Adi Imsirovic is the director of Surrey Clean Energy, and he said that it was a lot of work. He said: "This is the reason why diversification in many countries has been poor." Energy Aspects analyst Richard Jones stated that some governments might seek diversification on the margins but many Asian refiners were tied to Middle East contracts. He said that it was not possible to replace even a small portion of the 16 million barrels of Middle Eastern crude oil arriving in Asia each day with supply from the Atlantic basin. BIG?ASIAN CUSTOMERS In Japan, where 95% of the oil it imports comes from the Middle East, after Moscow invaded Ukraine, old refineries are optimized for Middle Eastern crude. Refiners are reluctant to invest in upgrading their facilities so they can compete with new sources, such as Canada's heavy TMX. MuyuXu, senior analysts at Kpler said that Japanese refiners may blend lighter WTI crude or West African crudes with heavier grades of crude from the Americas in order to approximate the characteristics Middle Eastern medium-sour. She said, "The caveat is however the logistical complex and refinery operational risk." Japan has a near-term stockpile that can last approximately 250 days. China, the world's largest importer, has smaller reserves, about 78 days worth, but a much more diverse supply profile. It sources roughly half its oil from Middle East countries, including Iran, which is where it has always been the biggest buyer. China buys oil from Russia, despite the western sanctions. It also purchases from mainstream producers. India, which has only 25 days worth of oil reserves and relies on the Middle East for more than half of its oil needs, is scrambling to come up with alternatives. Washington gave it this week a one-month reprieve from buying Russian oil following pressure by President Donald Trump to reduce its purchases of Russian oil. "GET SOLAR PANELS" The market for liquefied gas is smaller and more competitive. The war in the Middle East has caused the No.2 producer Qatar to temporarily halt its production. India is now rationing gas for industrial customers. Michal Meidan is the head of China energy at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. He said that the situation could result in fuel switching and demand destruction. She said that South Asian countries should limit their gas consumption and adopt the Chinese model, which relies on coal and renewable energy. Tim Zhang, founder and CEO of Singapore's?Edge Research said that Asia could diversify or increase its use of conventional fuels, such as nuclear energy, renewables, and other non-fossil sources. Surrey's Imsirovic says a prolonged disruption may prompt governments to rethink their dependence on Middle East oil. It's going be like something similar to the Asian Currency Crisis. He said that people would have to seriously rethink their decisions. Buy some solar panels in sunny Asia and an electric vehicle. "End of story."
Bloomberg News: Trump officials are excluding Treasury Oil Futures Trading for the time being
Bloomberg News reported on Friday that the 'Trump administration has ruled out using the Treasury Department to trade oil futures for the time being, citing an individual familiar with the issue.
The report stated that officials discussed getting the Treasury Department to get involved but believed its ability meaningfully to affect the market was limited.
The global oil prices have increased since the war began with Iran on Saturday, as the conflict has disrupted Middle East supply. Prices fell on Thursday, the first time since six days. This was due to reports that the U.S. The U.S. may intervene on the futures markets.
Bloomberg News reported that officials were also hesitant to use the Strategic Petroleum Reserve immediately because it was only 60% full.
White House and Treasury officials did not respond immediately to comments outside of regular business hours. ? Could not verify the report immediately.
On Thursday, a senior White House official said that the Treasury would soon announce measures to combat 'rising energy costs in the aftermath of the Iran conflict. This could include potential action on the oil futures markets.
Details of the plan are unclear, and the White House official declined to give a specifics on the condition 'of anonymity' to discuss 'internal issues. They said they didn’t want to get in front of the Treasury announcement. Reporting by Shubham Kalya in Bengaluru, Editing by Alexandra Hudson and Elaine Hardcastle
(source: Reuters)