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Bankers show appetite for megadeals

Investment bankers were disappointed by the lack of mergers and acquisitions in the first half of the year. However, a surge of large deals in Asia as well as renewed optimism on U.S. stock markets may be setting the stage for megadeals. Dealmakers report that market uncertainties stemming primarily from U.S. president Donald Trump's tariff war, high interest rate and broader geopolitical conflicts hampered, but not derail, what bankers had expected to be a record-breaking year for global M&A. Dealmakers say that Trump's tariffs, which were launched by his "Liberation Day," on April 2, sent a chill through the market and forced several deals and initial publicly-traded offerings to subsequent quarters.

The expectation was that we would see lots of deal activity during the first half 2025. In reality, we did not see it," said Tommy Rueger. UBS, ranked by Dealogic as the No. According to preliminary data, from January 1 until June 27, UBS ranked No. 9 in equity markets revenue. More than a dozen interviews with top bankers indicate a growing confidence that market turmoil is behind us. Dealmakers report that the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq index have recently closed at record highs, which has renewed optimism about the strength of M&A activity in the second half.

Ivan Farman said that many deals were put on hold and will return, according to Ivan Farman. He is the co-head of global M&A for Bank of America. In Dealogic's year-to-date rankings, Bank of America was ranked No. Dealogic's ranking for the year to date includes M&A at No. 5. "I'm confident about the second half."

Dealmakers are optimistic, citing the market recovery and Trump's relaxed antitrust policies as reasons for optimism. John Collins, global head of Mergers & Acquisitions for Morgan Stanley (ranked No. 1), said that the probability of large transactions has increased compared to a year earlier. Morgan Stanley was ranked No.4 in total fee revenue for investment banks, and No.3 for M&A deals. M&A deals ranked No.

From January 1 to June 27, there were 2,14 trillion dollars in transactions, up 26% compared to the same period last. A large part of the increase came from Asia where activity nearly doubled, to $583.9billion.

According to preliminary Dealogic data, the deal activity in North America increased by 17% between January 1 and June 27 to $1.04 trillion.

The VIX index measures market volatility and has fallen to levels where investors are more confident about investing today.

It's clear that momentum is continuing to build and paving the path for larger transactions. People are more optimistic than they were one month ago, and have started to implement their plans," said Philip Ross.

In the calmer markets, institutional investors have started to return to equities. More companies are also moving forward with IPOs that were delayed earlier in this quarter. Rueger explained that the combination of these factors has led to a strong new issue background over the past three to four week.

Saadi SOUDAVAR, head of equity markets at Deutsche Bank for Europe, Middle East, and Africa, said: "Equity market volatility has been largely absorbed by the markets, despite tariffs and geopolitical issues."

MORALE BOOSTERS Several big deals helped boost the market's morale during the peak of tariff turmoil. Global Payments, for example, acquired a firm that provides card processing and account management services in April for $24,25 billion. Charter Communications agreed in May to purchase privately-held rival Cox Communications, for $21.9 billion. Chart Industries, a U.S. equipment manufacturer, and Flowserve Corp. agreed to merge. The combined company is valued at approximately $19 billion.

According to Dealogic, 17,528 transactions were signed in the first half of the year compared to 20,583 during the same period the previous year. The deals this year were larger, which pushed the value of all deals up. The data show that the number of deals worth $10 billion or more has increased by 62% compared to the same period in 2013.

Dealmaking was strong in Asia. M&A activity in the first half of this year increased to $583,9 billion from $269.9 a year earlier.

The region, led by Japan and China accounted for 27,3% of global M&A, an increase of more than 11 points from the same time last year. The Asia-Pacific region was home to some of the largest deals in the region. Toyota Motor announced on June 3, plans to privatize one of its suppliers for $33 billion. On June 16, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's (ADNOC), a consortium headed by ADNOC, announced an all-cash $18,7 billion takeover of Australia’s second largest oil producer Santos.

Asia helped to drive global equity issuance up despite market volatility. The overall volume rose nearly 8%, reaching $350 billion compared with the same period in the previous year.

"There will be more Asia-to Asia activity," said Raghav Malieh, global vice-chairman of investment banking, Goldman Sachs. The firm was ranked no. "You will see more Asia-to-Asia activity," said Raghav Maliah, global vice chairman of investment banking at Goldman Sachs. The firm was ranked No. M&A revenue is No. "Japan is a major driver of all deal volumes in Asia and we believe this trend will continue."

(source: Reuters)