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The Russian Economy Ministry has cut its Brent price forecast for 2025 by almost 17%

The Russian Economy Ministry has cut its Brent price forecast for 2025 by almost 17%

According to documents obtained by, the Russian economy ministry's forecast for the average Brent crude price in 2025 has been cut by 17% compared to what they thought it would be in September.

Interfax reported that in the ministry's baseline scenario for economic forecasts of 2025, the ministry assumes the average price of Brent to be $68 per barrel, down from $81.7 per barrel in its September predictions.

The Ministry of Finance estimates that the price for Urals - Russia's main blend - is $56 per barrel - compared to the $69.7 barrel price on which Russia has based their budget 2025 - and lower than the $60 "cut-off" price, which determines the amount of money sent to the National Wealth Fund Reserve (NWF) budget reserve.

In the baseline scenario, we assume at some point that the export price drops below the cutoff, but then goes up. In this scenario, we do not deplete our NWF," a ministry representative told Interfax.

Oil and gas revenues account for a third (or more) of the budget.

The representative said that "from a budgetary standpoint, these conditions are difficult, but normal."

The Russian rainy day NWF is now the main source for financing Russia's persistent budget deficit. The liquid assets of the fund have fallen by two-thirds, from $112.7 to $39 billion.

According to the new estimates, the rouble value of Russian oil has decreased by 21.5% to 5,281 Roubles per barrel compared to the previous forecast.

In April, the Russian central bank had warned that due to a lower global demand, oil prices may be lower for several years than expected.

Urals prices dropped to their lowest level since 2023 early April, trading at around $53 a barrel. They traded below $60 per barrel last week.

The first quarter of this year saw Russia's oil revenues fall by 10% compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, the average price for Urals in roubles since April began was 31% lower than the planned amount, forcing the government to sell foreign currency for first time.

The ministry said that it did not expect a recession to occur due to the trade wars of U.S. president Donald Trump and believes global growth will be slightly higher than 2% this year.

Interfax quoted the representative of the ministry as saying: "The world's still bigger than the United States. So some flows will be directed."

The Ministry maintained its forecast of 2.5% for the gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Russia and raised its inflation forecast from 4.5% to 7.6%.

The rouble is also expected to be stronger this year than it was previously forecasted, with an average of 94.3% of the dollar per rouble, compared to an earlier prediction of 96.5 roubles. (Written by Lidia Kelley in Melbourne and Gleb Brnski in Moscow, edited by Leslie Adler & Darlie Butler)

(source: Reuters)