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OPEC? surprise triggered record hedge fund oil sales: Kemp

Portfolio financiers offered record volumes of petroleum last week after OPEC? amazed the market by announcing plans to increase production beginning with the fourth quarter of 2024.

Hedge funds and other money supervisors sold the equivalent of 194 million barrels in the six most important futures and choices agreements over the seven days ending on June 4.

Fund sales were the fastest for any week since at least 2013 when the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and ICE Futures Europe began releasing data in the existing format.

Sales were more than three standard discrepancies far from the typical weekly change, indicating how shocked financiers were by the announcement to raise production.

Investors sold Brent (-102 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE WTI (-53 million), European gas oil (-17 million), U.S. diesel ( -15 million) and U.S. fuel (-6 million).

Sales of crude in basic and Brent in specific were also the fastest on record as traders concluded the crude market would be conveniently through the rest of the year and into 2025.

However heavy selling of refined fuel contracts indicates financiers were likewise responding to signs of lukewarm consumption and swelling inventories of gas and diesel.

Investors had actually become bearish or very bearish about all components of the petroleum complex.

Chartbook: Oil and gas positions

Total petroleum positions were slashed to 208 million barrels (1st percentile for all weeks given that 2013) the lowest since a single week in December 2023 and before that January 2016.

Brent positions were cut to their third-lowest level on record at simply 46 million barrels, down from 335 million simply 7 weeks previously.

Extreme hedge fund selling helped press front-month Brent futures prices to their least expensive level for 4 months on June 4.

In subsequent speeches along with an online instruction to oil analysts, OPEC? officials have repeated that the set up increase can be paused or reversed subject to market conditions.

The re-emphasis on the contingent nature of the prepared increase seems to have steadied the market with costs increasing a little.

But the group's recent conference will go on record as a significant OPEC? surprise-- even if it did not turn out as ministers intended.

U.S. NATURAL GAS

Hedge funds turned a little bit more mindful about the outlook for U.S. gas prices last week after stocks stayed stubbornly high and took a few of the recent bullishness out of the market.

Funds sold the equivalent of 90 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the two major futures and choices agreements connected to gas costs at Henry Center in Louisiana over the seven days ending on June 4.

It was the first net sale for 5 weeks as funds added more bearish brief positions (114 bcf) than brand-new longs (24 bcf).

However, the resulting net long position of 791 bcf ( 52nd percentile for all weeks since 2010) remained well above the current net except 1,675 bcf (3rd percentile) in mid-February.

Working stocks were the second-highest on record for the time of year on May 31 and 612 bcf (+27% or 1.45 standard variances) above the prior 10-year seasonal average.

After swelling through much of the winter season of 2023/24, the surplus has not increased because mid-March, hearting bullish financiers, however it has actually not yet narrowed either, injecting an component of caution.

Related columns:

- OPEC? switches method to safeguard market share (June 4, 2024)

- U.S. oil futures draw renewed interest from hedge funds

(source: Reuters)