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MORNING BID EUROPE - Tariff toll still not deter stock bulls
Stella Qiu gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Stock investors aren't too worried about the impact of Donald Trump's tariffs on economic data and corporate earnings. The data showed that the U.S. services sector slowed down in July, as the employment rate continued to decline and input costs rose by the highest level in almost three years. This, combined with Friday's brutal jobs report, rekindled fears of stagflation and put the Federal Reserve into a difficult position. The impact of tariffs on U.S. earnings is becoming more evident, even though the results were generally positive in the second quarter. Caterpillar warned it could lose up to $1.5bn in tariffs this year, and Taco Bell's parent company Yum Brands warned against increased costs and a weakened consumer market. After the bell, shares of Advanced Micro Devices, a stock that makes AI chips for data centers, fell 6.6%. Investors are caught in a tug-of-war between tariffs and still robust earnings. According to the impressive rise in stocks following the U.S. employment figures, buying the dip is still a good idea for now. Reports indicate that the other big news today is the ChatGPT maker OpenAI. The company is currently in the early stages of a possible secondary stock sale. This would value the company at approximately $500 billion. In Asia, the majority of shares fell but Japan and Australia performed better with gains of 0.6%. Wall Street futures recovered after a dip. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose 0.1% each. The European stock futures market is bracing itself for a higher opening, with EUROSTOXX futures up by 0.3%. The dollar has struggled to recover after the Friday jobs slump. Trump's choice to fill the upcoming vacancy at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors is being watched closely. Trump announced that a decision would be made by Friday. He also ruled out Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is currently the chief of staff and whose tenure ends in 2026. After a disappointing three-year auction on Tuesday, the Treasury market prepared for a $42 Billion auction of 10-year bonds. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Wednesday. Retail sales in the Eurozone for June U.S. Treasury 10-year bond auction Disney, Uber and McDonald's earnings results Want to stay up-to-date with the latest tariffs? Our daily news digest provides a quick overview of the most important headlines that impact global trade. Tariff Watch is available here.
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Trump's threats against Russian crude buyers have led to a rebound in oil prices
On Wednesday, oil prices rose, recovering from a five week low the day before, amid concerns about supply disruptions following U.S. president Donald Trump's threat of tariffs against India for its Russian crude purchase. Brent crude futures rose 43 cents (0.6%) to $68.07 per barrel at 0330 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 40 cents (0.6%), reaching $65.56 per barrel. Market chatter has grown that China's purchases may be the next thing to come under scrutiny, according to ING commodity analysts on Thursday. They said that if India stopped buying Russian oil due to tariff threats, the market could cope with this loss. The bigger risk, however, was if the other buyers started to avoid Russian oil. The oil contract prices fell more than one dollar on Tuesday, reaching their lowest level in five weeks. This was the fourth session that both contracts had lost money, due to concerns about oversupply resulting from OPEC+’s planned September production increase. Investors are assessing if India will reduce their Russian crude purchases as a response to Trump's threat, which could tighten the supply. But it is yet to be seen whether this will happen," said Yuki Tasashima. He said that if India's imports remained steady, WTI would likely stay in the $60-$70 price range for the remainder of the month. OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and its allies agreed on Sunday to increase oil production by 547,000 barges per day in September. This will bring an end to the most recent cut in output earlier than expected. OPEC+ produces about half the oil in the world. For several years, the group had curtailed production to help the market. This year, the group has accelerated its output to regain some market share. The U.S. demand that India stop buying Russian oil, as Washington looks for ways to pressure Moscow to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine, could disrupt supply as Indian refiners look for alternatives and Russian crude gets redirected to another buyer. Trump threatened on Tuesday to increase tariffs on Indian products over the country's Russian-oil purchases in the next 24 hour. Trump said that falling energy prices may also pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin into ending the war in Ukraine. New Delhi called Trump’s threat “unjustified” and pledged to protect its own economic interests, deepening the trade rift between two countries. Takashima, from Nomura, also cited industry data that showed crude inventories in America, the largest oil consumer in the world, as a positive for the oil markets. Sources citing American Petroleum Institute data said Tuesday that U.S. crude stocks fell by 4.2 millions barrels during the past week. This compares to a poll estimation of a 600,000.0 barrels draw in the week ending August 1. Wednesday is the day that the U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its weekly inventories. Reporting by Yuka Obaashi in Tokyo, Jeslyne Lerh and Stephen Coates in Singapore. Editing by Christian Schmollinger & Stephen Coates.
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Markets watch Fed appointments as they see gold prices drop amid dollar gains
On Wednesday, gold prices fell on a stronger dollar. Investors held off on making large bets before Donald Trump made his decision about the Federal Reserve. As of 0312 GMT on Wednesday, spot gold was down by 0.1%, at $3,376.01 an ounce. It had hit a two-week high the day before. U.S. Gold Futures dropped 0.1% to $3431.10. The dollar recovered from the one-week low it hit in the previous session. This reduced gold's appeal for other currency holders. We see that gold is con "We are solidifying and have a slight upward bias," Brian Lan, Singapore's managing director of GoldSilver Central said. We expect gold to test a higher trading range like $3,393 or $3,400. Trump said on Tuesday that he will announce his decision on the short-term replacement of Fed Governor Adriana Kulgler, who announced on Friday her resignation, as well as on his choice for the next Fed Chair. CME FedWatch now places the odds of a cut in September at almost 87% after Friday's employment data that was weaker than expected, which led to Trump firing the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Trump threatened again to increase tariffs on Indian goods over their Russian oil purchases. New Delhi, however, called the attack "unjustified," and pledged to protect its own economic interests. This further widened the trade gap between the two nations. The refiner reported on Wednesday that the Perth Mint saw its gold sales fall 33% from the previous months, and silver sales drop to a six month low. Silver spot was unchanged at 37.82 cents per ounce. Platinum fell 0.5% to 1,313.94 dollars and palladium dropped 1% to 1,164.15 dollars. (Reporting and editing by Anushree Mokherjee in Bengaluru, Brijesh Patel in New Delhi)
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Trinidad, ExxonMobil Strike Deal for Seven Deepwater Blocks
Trinidad and Tobago's government has agreed to award U.S. oil major ExxonMobil acreage in an ultra-deep area that includes seven blocks to explore for oil and gas, two senior government officials told Reuters.The parties began negotiations earlier this year for the areas off the east coast of the Caribbean country, which ExxonMobil left more than 20 years ago. The blocks are located northwest of ExxonMobil's prolific Stabroek block in Guyana, where the consortium it leads has confirmed more than 11 billion barrels of recoverable resources.ExxonMobil and the Trinidadian government could sign the agreement as soon as next week, according to the people with knowledge of the negotiations, who were not authorized to speak publicly.The area to be awarded to ExxonMobil is an amalgamation of seven blocks, and has been renamed Ultra Deep 1 or UD1. The area covers water depths of 2,000 to 3,000 meters, the people told Reuters."We will not comment on third party sources, but we routinely look at opportunities to optimize our advantaged portfolio," an ExxonMobil spokesperson told Reuters.Trinidad and Tobago Energy Minister Roodal Moonilal did not respond to a request for comment."Ultra-deep Trinidad and Tobago could unlock potential similar to ExxonMobil's Stabroek block," according to a 2024 study by Houston-based energy data analytics firm TGS.In Guyana, ExxonMobil and partners Chevron and CNOOC are about to begin production at their fourth floating facility, which will expand its capacity beyond 900,000 barrels per day (bpd), less than six years after beginning oil production in the South American country. The group plans to produce up to 1.7 million bpd by 2030.During a press briefing last week, ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods said exploration is part of a three-pronged approach to ensure that the company continuously replaces the oil and gas it produces."We're continuing to have a very consistent and focused effort on finding more resources that will be economically advantaged and competitive in our portfolio." Woods said.Work To DoExxonMobil has agreed to a signing bonus and a three-phase exploration program in Trinidad that includes the acquisition of seismic data and drilling of exploration wells, the two sources said.If oil or gas is found, the agreement also includes royalty payments and a share of the profits to the government, along with a provision for cost recovery, the sources said.ExxonMobil first approached the Trinidadian government in November of 2024 with interest in the seven blocks, they added.Trinidad and Tobago is in the middle of a deepwater auction that has been extended to close on September 17 and excludes the areas ExxonMobil is interested in.According to Trinidad's laws, the government can individually negotiate areas for exploration and production if they are not included in a competitive bidding round.Trinidad has been trying to rejuvenate investment, especially offshore, where more gas output is needed to support the nation's liquefied natural gas and petrochemical industries. But it is also hoping to find oil in its deep waters.A flagship offshore gas project with neighboring Venezuela recently lost its U.S. authorization to move forward and has been shelved. It was expected to help relieve some of the country's ongoing gas shortages.(Reuters - Reporting by Curtis Williams in Houston; Additional reporting by Sheila Dang; Editing by Richard Chang)
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Ramboll Names Offshore Substations Chief
Danish engineering group Ramboll has appointed Tommy Flindt as the new Global Director for Offshore Substations within the Wind Division.Effective from August 1, 2025, Tommy Flindt will be responsible for leading Ramboll’s global offshore substations business, supported by a team of close to 200 experts.Ramboll offers support within optimization, development and design of both topside facilities and substructures, including services that span both detailed technical expertise and the necessary environmental impact assessments and permitting.The substations team is part of Ramboll’s Wind Division, which comprises of more than 900 specialists offering comprehensive services throughout the entire life cycle of wind energy projects.Joining Ramboll from Copenhagen Offshore Partners, where he was a Senior Director, Tommy Flindt has also contributed to leading industry players such as Ørsted, Maersk and Semco Maritime.His experience in global, multicultural settings, coupled with his focus on people, empowerment, communication, delivery professionalism, and development, perfectly aligns with Ramboll’s values and mission.“Tommy Flindt brings more than 13 years of extensive experience in the offshore wind industry. His expertise spans engineering, technology, project management, business development and senior leadership. He brings the whole package,” said Tim Fischer, Global Executive Director for Ramboll’s Wind Division.
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Sources say that India's two state run firms will issue debt of over $500 million in August.
Three sources familiar with the matter confirmed on Tuesday that the state-owned companies NHPC (India) and NTPC Green Energy (Canada) will sell short-term bonds to raise approximately 45 billion rupees ($512,6 million). Sources said that NHPC, the hydropower company in India, is planning to raise 20 billion rupees by selling bonds for two or three years. It should be the initial of the two companies who come up with this issue. Sources claim that NTPC Green Energy will debut on the bond market, raising between 20 and 25 billion rupees via five-year bonds. One source said that "NTPC Green Energy would prefer to use shorter-term notes, but could also choose 10-year notes if investors show enough interest." Sources requested anonymity because the discussions are private. The companies didn't respond to an email asking for comment. Early May, NHPC raised approximately 19.45 billion rupees through bonds that were redeemable and separately transferable with maturities ranging from six to 15 years. The second source stated that "short-end rates have dropped and there's a good spread between the three-to five-year and the 10-year paper. This encourages both firms to issue such papers." The Reserve Bank of India is expected to make a monetary policy announcement later that day. This will boost the demand for bonds.
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Iron ore prices fall as investors focus on coking coal
Iron ore futures fell on Wednesday as investors shifted their focus from iron ore to coking coal due to concerns about the demand for the commodity in China, its largest consumer. As of 0205 GMT, the benchmark September iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange fell 0.56% to $100.91 per metric ton. The price of the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was unchanged, at 795.5 Yuan ($110.65). Cao Ying is a Beijing analyst with broker SDIC Futures. She said that the buying in the spot market has been weak because mills are hesitant to stockpile raw materials in anticipation of the upcoming major event in September. This has dragged down futures prices. The big event is a ceremony in Beijing on September 3, commemorating the 80th Anniversary of the End of World War Two. Chinese steelmakers, particularly those in the north, often restrict production in advance of major events in order to maintain air quality in Beijing. Cao, from SDIC, added that "speculative sentiment" is very low as capital has poured into the volatile coal market. Iron ore open interest in Dalian dropped by 4.2% on Tuesday compared to the previous day, while Dalian coking coal saw a 13.7% increase. Open interest is the number of option contracts that have not yet been settled between buyers or sellers. It's a measure for investors' participation on a particular market. Three analysts and traders have said that they are now focusing on trading coking coal. Analysts said that the price of coking coal increased by 6.76 percent, mainly due to fears about a possible contraction in supply, amid more stringent safety inspections for coal mines, and government investigations for reducing excess production. The price fluctuations of coking coal have attracted more capital and investors, which has in turn increased the volatility, said Zhou Tao analyst at Galaxy Futures. Coke grew by 2.42%. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have gained some ground. Hot-rolled coils and stainless steel gained 0.08%, rebar and wire rod 0.84%. ($1 = 7,1891 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
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Asian shares follow Wall Street lower as dollar rangebound
The dollar was weighed down by lower bond yields, as well as weak U.S. economic data, on Wednesday. Data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. service sector activity was flat in July. Input costs and employment have risen by nearly three times in the last year, highlighting the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariff policy. The second-quarter results revealed the impact of Trump's tariffs. Taco Bell's parent company Yum Brands missed earnings expectations due to steep trade duties that dent consumer spending. Caterpillar also warned of tariffs costing it up $1.5 billion in the second quarter. The report paints a picture that a stagflationary trend is developing, although it's still a long way off. It raises the possibility of an explosive mix of joblessness and rising prices, as tariffs spread through the U.S. economic system, said Kyle Rodda. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan fell 0.2% while Japan's Nikkei managed a 0.2% gain. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong and the blue chips of China were both flat. Nasdaq Futures declined 0.3%, while S&P 500 Futures declined 0.1%. Trump said on Tuesday that he would announce tariffs for semiconductors and chips within the next few weeks. The U.S. will initially impose a'small tariff' on pharmaceutical imports, before it increases it significantly in a year or so. He said that the U.S. and China were close to a deal on trade, and that he planned to meet with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping by the end of the calendar year if a deal was reached. He threatened to increase tariffs on Indian goods over their Russian oil purchases. On the currency markets, after a disappointing jobs report last Friday that caused markets to price in an almost certain chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, the dollar has stabilized. The dollar index (which measures the U.S. currencies against six counterparts) was flat this week at 98.821, and up by 0.1% after Friday's fall of 1.4%. FedWatch from the CME shows that Fed funds futures indicate a 94% probability of a rate reduction next month. At least two cuts are priced in this year. Investors await Trump's choice to fill the upcoming vacancy at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Trump announced that a decision would be made shortly, but ruled out Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is currently the chief of the Federal Reserve, and whose tenure ends in 2026. Treasury yields rose overnight, but remained near their multi-month lows. This week, the market will see more supply with $42 billion of 10-year notes and $25 billion of 30-year bonds. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 2 basis points to 4.2198% after staying steady overnight. Oil prices have been rising on commodity markets after four sessions of consecutive declines. U.S. crude oil rose 0.2%, to $65.3 a barrel. Brent crude was up 0.1%, at $67.78 a barrel. Trump said Tuesday that he would decide whether or not to sanction countries which purchase Russian oil following a scheduled meeting with Russian officials on Wednesday. The spot gold price was flat at $3.381 per ounce.
Seven & i North American business IPO will fund faster growth, according to CEO
Seven & i Holdings, a Japanese convenience store operator, said that the planned listing of their North American operations will allow them to borrow additional money for accelerated growth.
Stephen Dacus, the CEO of the company, said that the listing is scheduled for the second half 2026. This will allow faster store openings in the U.S. as well as additional bolt-on M&As.
After successfully repelling a hostile takeover attempt from Canadian competitor Alimentation Couche-Tard, the fate of the struggling operator of 7-Eleven rests on the ability to grow independently.
Couche-Tard retracted its $46 billion bid last month citing a failure to engage with Seven & i. This precipitated a 9% drop in Seven & i’s share price, reflecting investor scepticism regarding Seven & i’s plans for standalone growth.
Seven & i is facing stiff competition in Japan from its faster-growing competitors Family Mart and Lawson. In the U.S. analysts and investors claim that the lacklustre profits margins of the convenience store chain belie the potential it has to become the country's largest.
Seven & i, as well as a number of activist investors have been putting pressure on the company to increase returns through asset sales and a focus on its core business.
Seven announced in March a major restructuring that included the sale of its superstore division, a 2 trillion-yen ($13.55-billion) share buyback until 2030, and a commitment to list its North American unit in the second half 2026. ($1 = 147.5600yen) (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing, Muralikumar Aantharaman).
(source: Reuters)