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Marco Rubio warns diplomats not to mention the 'kill switch" in American technology
According to a recent cable, U.S. State Secretary Marco Rubio asked diplomats to fight against the idea of a "kill button" on American technology products. This follows the White House's decision to keep foreigners away from America's advanced AI models. The talking points that were distributed worldwide show how U.S. Diplomats are dealing with the international backlash caused by Trump's attempts to control who and how American AI companies release models. The State Department refused to comment, and the White House didn't respond to a comment request. Anthropic was forced to suspend global access to its most advanced models Mythos and Fable after the Trump administration blocked non-U.S. citizens from using them on June 12, citing national security concerns. Asian tech executives used the "disruption" to promote their own alternatives, while European legislators redoubled calls for digital independence. The fallout from the ban lingers even though it was lifted the following month. The U.S. government's desire to police AI products, and possibly yank them from allies' hands at any moment, was heightened by the June 2 executive orders of?Trump, who asked AI companies to submit their models for 30 days to cybersecurity testing before their release. The episode, according to European legislator Christophe Grudler, showed that the U.S. has a "kill-switch" over vital technologies that it is more than willing to use. Aura Salla of the European People's Party (the largest political group in the European Parliament) said that Europe "cannot continue building its tech stack on access that could be turned off overnight by a foreign government." The State Department cable dated July 16 did not refer to Anthropic or specifically to Trump's executive orders or last month's banning of the company, but provided American diplomats talking points designed for countering arguments that have arisen in their wake. The cable stated that "Kill Switch" is not the requirement of a 30-day test window or the suspension of certain uses prior to releasing a new, highly-potent technology. There is no'magic' button on the government's part. This narrative is exaggerated, and it doesn't capture all the nuanced aspects of U.S. Technology Policy." AMERICAN AI SALE PITCH Rubio’s cable urged diplomats to oppose "so-called "digital sovereignty" initiatives. It defined these as?efforts that restrict American tech companies' access to foreign market, subject them localization requirements, or force them follow local rules such as content moderating. Rubio already told American diplomats earlier this year to oppose similar measures against data sovereignty. The cable discussed also how to counter "AI sovereign" arguments. It instructed American diplomats that American AI products were the best available tools and to describe efforts to build rival AI systems from scratch as a waste time and resources. The cable stated that "American AI firms can build large, autonomous AI infrastructure with secure and robust supplies chains that minimize backdoor risks." They build it. It's yours." Edward Fishman, the director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomics, at the Council on Foreign Relations said that he understood the safety concerns which led the U.S. Government to impose first restrictions on Anthropic’s models. These can be used to turbocharge complex hacking activities. Fishman, however, said that Trump's administration's tendency to use coercive economic instruments such as tariffs or sanctions against friends and enemies alike made the State Department pitch difficult to sell. He said that European partners were worried that if they became "ultra-reliant" on U.S. frontier AI models, such as those produced by Anthropic or OpenAI, the U.S. might use this against them in the future. Salla, a European legislator, said that Trump's administration had repeatedly threatened countries such as Denmark, creating an atmosphere of distrust that could not be dispelled by rhetoric. She said, "They haven't shown us any evidence that they are reliable business partners." (Reporting and editing by Deepa Babyington, Raphael Satter)
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Wall St futures fall as caution grows ahead of Big Tech earnings
Investors were cautious as they awaited the first batch Big?Tech earnings that will determine whether Wall Street's AI driven rally still has room to run. After months of gains, which lifted the major indices from their lows in March, momentum has slowed as volatility among heavyweight semiconductor stocks has slowed risk appetite. Investors will be looking for new evidence after the bell that the multi-billion dollar AI investments of these companies are paying off. Alphabet is 'under special scrutiny? after the delay in launching a model that was central to their AI ambitions heightened concerns. Ipek Ozkardeskaya is a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. She said that if Big Tech, which funnels its free cash into the pockets of chipmakers, shows signs of slowing down the pace of their spending, another selling wave could hit the semiconductor industry. In premarket trading Texas Instruments, which is also scheduled to report after close, fell 1.7%, following broader weakness in semiconductor stocks. Geopolitical risk and the heavy earnings schedule set up markets for a potentially volatile week. The Middle East conflict remained in the spotlight as the Houthi militia of Yemen, backed by Iran, threatened shipping and a wider conflict disrupted the two most important energy chokepoints in the world. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Washington is still willing to discuss an end to Iran's crisis but Tehran "is not serious" in its talks. The oil price hovered around a six-week high, which complicated the outlook for central banks. According to a median forecast of economists in a recent poll, the Federal Reserve will likely keep interest rates steady through the remainder of 2026. However, respondents indicated that the risk of an increase was still high. CME Group’s FedWatch tool revealed that traders are pricing in a probability of more than 70% that the Fed will leave rates unchanged during?next weeks meeting. At 5:39 am. Dow E-minis fell 45 points or 0.09% and S&P E-minis dropped 22 points or 0.29%. Nasdaq?E -minis fell 208.75 or 0.71%. Super Micro Computer, one of the premarket movers, soared 16.8%. The AI server maker announced that it had received more than $60 billion worth of new orders for its fourth quarter and expects to see a gross margin exceeding its previous forecast. (Reporting and editing by Amanda Cooper, Joyjeet Das, and Ragini Mathur from Bengaluru)
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Copper prices rise, but Chinese buyers are wary, and inflation worries arise.
Copper prices rose on Wednesday, after reaching a six-week high the day before due to shortages and falling inventories outside of the U.S. However, gains were capped by resistance from China to higher 'prices and inflation fears. The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.1% to $13,894 per metric tonne by 0930 GMT, after reaching its highest level in over six weeks on February 22 at $13,934. Alastair Munro is a senior base metals strategist with broker Marex. He said: "That it stalls before $14,000 reminds all of us that China is not a chasing price, but there on dips." The dollar's rise amid rising crude prices was "some sort of overnight headwind" with rates markets reflecting the inflationary risks. As hostilities in the Middle East escalated, oil prices reached near six-week highs. The dollar index has risen?during the last four sessions?, but was slightly lower on Wednesday. Traders weighed the possibility that Japan would intervene to support the weak yen. The dollar is stronger, making commodities priced in U.S. dollars more expensive to buyers of other currencies. Due to local shortages, the most traded copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached its highest level since June 3, reaching?106.760 yuan. Craig Lang, principal analyst at CRU, said that "Traders continue to deliver metal to the U.S. because they are incentivized by the CME and LME import arbitrage before the U.S. decides whether or not to impose tariffs on refined copper." He said that typhoons and smelter maintenance are impacting the supply of copper cathode in China. A tight scrap supply also adds to demand. Yangshan Copper Premium On Wednesday, the, which measures import demand, reached its highest level since November 2022 at $115 per?ton. Other metals saw a 0.7% increase in LME aluminium to $3179 per ton. Zinc rose by 0.9% to $3585.50; lead increased 0.5% to $1877.50; nickel grew 0.3% to $17.135; and tin climbed 0.4% to $54,100. ($1 = 6.7722 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and additional reporting by Solomon Cefai, Singapore; Editing Leroy Leo).
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Gold reaches two-week highs as investors watch Mideast developments
Gold reached a two week high on Wednesday. This was supported by some technical 'buying' and safe-haven demand. Investors were watching developments in the Middle East, while also preparing for the U.S. Federal Reserve Meeting next week to get clues about interest rate outlook. Gold spot rose by 0.9% to $4.112,29 per ounce at 0811 GMT. It had already reached its highest level since the 7th of July earlier in that day. U.S. gold futures for delivery in August gained 1%, to $4116.80. Safe-haven demand, and the hope that diplomatic efforts between the U.S., and Iran, could lead to a reduction of tensions, are reducing concerns that higher oil costs could fuel inflation and keep interest rates high for longer. The current price rebound is likely to?face headwinds due to volatile energy prices, but the $4,000 an ounce level still provides strong technical support. Marco Rubio, the U.S. secretary of state, said earlier on Wednesday that Washington was willing to negotiate a solution to the Iran Crisis but Tehran wasn't serious about talking. Three oil tankers carrying Saudi crude bound for China and India changed course in the Red Sea after receiving threats from Yemeni Houthis who are aligned with Iran. This pushed up oil prices. Gold prices are down from the record highs reached in January, after the war stoked inflation fears and increased the likelihood of longer-term higher interest rates. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, but high interest rates can make it less appealing. A poll showed that the Fed will likely keep its main interest rate steady until the end of 2026. Markets are pricing in two rate increases by the end of March next year. CME FedWatch Tool data shows that traders now expect a 67% probability of an interest rate increase in September. Silver spot rose by 0.7% per ounce to $59.2135, platinum rose 0.8% to 1,642.74, while palladium grew by 1% to $1,294.19.
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Investors focus on US tech earnings as South Korean shares lose early gains
South Korean shares closed slightly higher on Tuesday, after a sharp rise in the early going. However, caution before key U.S. technology earnings and chip earnings underscored the market's reliance on heavyweight chipmakers. The benchmark KOSPI Index settled 0.7% higher, at 6,797.7, after rising 6.2% during early trading. This was largely due to a 9% increase in AI memory chips maker SK Hynix. SK Hynix reversed its course and ended marginally lower, while Samsung Electronics finished slightly higher. The'sharp swings' highlighted the dominance and power of Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and other companies that together account for more than half of the KOSPI. These companies can have a major impact on the benchmark by leveraging their products and share prices. Wei Li is the head of multi-asset investment at BNP Paribas Securities in China. The performance of an equal-weighted index would be lower because traditional exporters like shipbuilders and autos, as well as?chemicals, have seen limited upside due to a softer global market. The KOSPI surged in early trading, but the 11th sidecar trading ban in 15 sessions in this month was triggered by it. This highlights the increased volatility caused by the heavy concentration of chipmakers, at the heart of the AI boom. Wall Street's overnight rebound set the tone for Wednesday's rally. Market participants, however, remained focused on Alphabet's results and those of chipmakers Intel and Texas Instruments. Jason Lui is the head of APAC equity derivate strategy at BNP Paribas. He said that after the sharp drop in share prices, which was largely due to valuation, there should be a less crowded positioning going into major tech earnings. Lui explained that this will help investors "better assess the growth prospects of companies in a fundamental way." Other notable stocks included Hyundai Motor, Kia?Corp, and Samsung BioLogics. In the week ending Tuesday, foreigners have invested around 2.71 trillion dollars. However, they remain net sellers for the year with more than $100 billion of?outflows. On the onshore settlement platform the won last traded at 1.478 U.S. dollars, up from the previous day's 1,471.
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Shanghai copper reaches 7-week high due to supply concerns and strong China demand
Shanghai copper prices rose on Wednesday to a seven week high as supply concerns and a 'firm Chinese demand' pushed up the price. London copper fell after reaching a six week peak just a day before. As of 0700 GMT, the most traded?copper?contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange had risen by 0.94% to 105,820 Yuan ($15.625.65) per metric ton. It had reached its highest level since June 3, at 106760 yuan, earlier in the day. The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.57%, to $13,806.5 per ton. This was after it hit a six-week-high on Tuesday. Copper inventories have dropped in LME-registered storage warehouses Warehouses that are SHFE monitored . The Chinese demand is strong, and the market still awaits news about potential U.S. metal tariffs. "Traders continue to deliver metal to the U.S. due to the CME-LME?arbitrage import?ahead of the 'U.S. Craig Lang, Principal Analyst at CRU said that the U.S. would decide whether or not to impose tariffs on refined copper. The Chinese market remained active. The Yangshan Copper Premium On Tuesday, the, which measures import demand, reached its highest level since December 2023, reaching $109 per?ton. Lang explained that typhoon-related maintenance at smelters and the stockpiling of scrap metal due to their impact on the supply are both affecting supply. The tight scrap supply has also increased demand for "copper cathode". The Middle East conflict is also pushing up oil prices. According to economists polled, the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep rates the same for the rest of the year. Copper became more expensive to buyers who used other currencies because the dollar was strong. Aluminium was up by 0.02% on the LME, while?zinc gained 0.23%. Lead fell 0.27%. Nickel rose 0.5%, and Tin climbed 0.2%. The SHFE saw aluminium gain 0.59%. Zinc gained 0.68%. Lead lost 0.88%. Nickel climbed 1.07%. Tin added 0.87%. $1 = 6.7722 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu Sahu).
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Gold reaches two-week highs as Fed outlook and Mideast conflict remain in focus
Gold rose to a?high? of two weeks?on a technical basis?on Wednesday as investors assessed a deteriorating Middle East conflict. They also waited for the U.S. Federal Reserve's meeting next week, which will provide clues about the interest rate outlook. Gold spot rose 0.9% by 0705 GMT to $4,112.70 an ounce, after hitting its highest level since July 7 earlier that day. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery jumped 1% to $4,116.90. The escalating tensions in Middle East have pushed up oil prices, stoked inflation fears and increased expectations of interest rate increases. This has led to gold's steepest weekly decline since early June. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that buyers are stepping in to find a bargain after a recent pullback. Meanwhile, hopes of diplomatic progress between Iran and the U.S. also help price movements. Marco Rubio, the U.S. secretary of state, said that Washington was still willing to talk to Iran about a resolution to the crisis. However Tehran did not seem to be serious. After threats by the Iran-aligned Houthis of Yemen, three oil tankers carrying Saudi crude towards Asia reversed their course in Tuesday's Red Sea. This raised concerns over?energy supplies. A poll suggests that the Fed will maintain its key interest rate for the rest of 2026. However, a majority who responded to a question regarding the possibility of a hike in this year rated it "high". This is a change from last month, when the majority rated it "low". The opportunity cost of holding?bullion that does not yield increases as interest rates rise over time. Silver spot?was 0.7% higher at $59.18 an ounce, after reaching its highest level since July 10 earlier that day. Palladium rose by 1.5%, to $1300.58, while platinum jumped 1.2%, to $1649.03. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich and Subhranshu sahu in Bengaluru, and Pablo Sinha based in Bengaluru.
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Kyrgyzstan approves a plan to build a mini oil refinery amid Russian shortages
Kyrgyzstan agreed to build a mini-oil refinery worth $25 million in the south of the nation as part of its efforts to increase domestic fuel production and reduce dependence on imports due to tightening Russian supplies. Central Asian Energy LLC of Kyrgyzstan, who will finance the project, recently signed an agreement with the Kyrgyz company to build the refinery. The plant will produce bitumen, motor oil and gasoline that meets?K5 or K6 environmental standards. The first phase of the construction should be completed by autumn 2026. Kyrgyzstan imports a majority of its gasoline from Russia. Fuel shortages in Russia have been a problem since late May, due to production reductions following drone attacks on Russian refineries. The Association of Oil Traders of Kyrgyzstan (AOTK) reported a shortage of AI 95 and AI 98?grade gas in late June due to a lack of supplies from Russia, and a seasonal rise in demand. In recent weeks, authorities have taken a series of steps to stabilize the fuel market. These include temporary price controls and lifting state price regulation for AI-95 gasohol. They also imposed a ban on exports of petroleum products. Kyrgyzstan?also awaits fuel deliveries from China, and Belarus. Separately the energy ministry announced that it had 'agreed with Uzbekistan to refine a part of its petroleum products in Uzbek refineries, before shipping them back to Kyrgyzstan. Reporting by Aigerim Turgunbaeva; Writing by Felix Light; Editing by Louise Heavens
Chevron CEO under pressure to stop share slide as Hess deal stalls
5 years ago, Chevron CEO Michael Wirth won Wall Street honor as the No. 2 U.S. oil business quickly attained a market value larger than Exxon Mobil's after he refused to get into a bidding war with Occidental Petroleum over a rival.
He was ahead of the game when the pandemic hit oil and gas need, requiring competitors to make deep cutbacks that Wirth had already taken on at Chevron. Its shares had actually outshined rivals for five years till 2022.
Fast forward to 2024 and Wirth's legacy is in threat. Chevron's falling earnings no longer cover its dividends and buybacks. Project overruns in Kazakhstan and Australia have actually cost the business billions.
The CEO is likewise locked in a must-win arbitration battle with Exxon Mobil that has held up his $53 billion purchase of Hess, a deal that would offer Chevron a stake in a. rewarding Guyana oilfield that Exxon runs.
Exxon's obstacle has delayed the deal by almost two years,. and threatens to kill it completely by asserting a right of very first. refusal over a sale of the Guyana residential or commercial properties.
Chevron shares are up 18% since Wirth took over as CEO in. 2018, compared to Exxon's 31% gain over the same duration.
Wirth's task is not at risk, state Chevron executives and. market sources. The board gave him a retirement-age waiver. more than a year ago as he began a sweeping overhaul of top. supervisors.
However If you have $1 to invest in an oil company now, how. would you validate investing it in Chevron?, stated Mark Kelly, an. analyst with the monetary firm MKP Advisors in London. The. Hess deal delay has left Chevron without any clear (business) development. story to inform.
Jake Spiering, Chevron's head of financier relations, said. the business's share efficiency this year has been hurt by the. arbitration case that has urged arbitrage traders to brief. Chevron.
The Chevron story is coming. This growth, and earnings,. and cash inflection is coming, Spiering stated. Chevron is poised. to deliver the greatest production development rate in the industry. over the next 12 months by broadening existing projects, he said.
The board is pushing for a quicker turnaround of. revenues, according to people familiar with the board's thinking. who requested privacy as board discussions are personal. Profits have decreased for the previous five quarters on a. year-over-year basis as oil costs pulled away from 2022 highs.
BRAND-NEW TEAM
Wirth has ushered in a new group with the resignations or. retirements of his previous financing chief, head of oil products. and gas, personnels chief and midstream and trading bosses. in a quote to shake things up.
There is a great deal of pressure on Mike since of Hess, said. among individuals close to the company's board. It's a make or. break for Mike, the person stated.
Wirth has shown a knack for multi-billion-dollar. acquisitions, picking up Noble Energy and PDC Energy in offers. near the market bottom or that closed quickly.
We desire be high efficiency, and you ought to anticipate the. board to expect that, Spiering stated previously this month in. action to questions about the company's efficiency.
Wirth was not offered to comment and Chevron declined to. make board members offered for comment.
BIGGEST SHADOW
The most significant shadow over the business stays its dispute with. Hess partners' Exxon and CNOOC Ltd over their Guyana. offshore holdings, which consist of the world's largest oil. discovery in practically 20 years. The deal initially was to. close in the first half of this year, however a choice in the. arbitration case may not be issued until the third quarter of. next year.
The delay is crucial to Chevron due to the fact that the deal closing. would give the company a 30% stake in Guyana's rising oil. output, which last year provided Hess a $1.88 billion web. revenue.
The stake would supply Chevron with long-lived oil. production from a nation with less geopolitical dangers than its. Venezuela or Kazakhstan operations, the latter of which accounts. for almost 20% of Chevron's quickly tapped oil reserves.
The Kazakh Tengizchevroil oil task, in which Exxon holds. a 25% stake, is almost three years behind a preliminary mid-2022. start-up and has exceeded its original $37 billion budget by over. $ 10 billion.
If the (operational) problems continue or if the offer. were to eventually fall apart, we could see further. underperformance, stated Biraj Borkhataria, an analyst at RBC. Capital.
VENEZUELA LICENSE?
Guyana, located on South America's Atlantic coast, could. aid improve the quality of the company's portfolio in Latin. America, where it keeps a limited presence in Brazil, Argentina. and smaller countries. The region leaving out Venezuela has. supplied less than 2% of its global output for the past years.
U.S. lawmakers and Venezuelan opposition leaders and. activists have actually called for tighter restrictions on the company's. negotiations in Venezuela.
Tax and royalties paid to the repressive Nicolas Maduro. administration have propped up the federal government, they state. The. July governmental election declared by Maduro has actually been condemned. as deceitful by the U.S. and regional Organization of American. States.
If Chevron's license to operate in Venezuela were terminated. or amended, which analysts say might take place if previous President. Donald Trump returns to office and restores his project versus. Maduro, the business could lose its right to export about 220,000. barrels per day of oil.
Chevron continues to make the case to U.S. authorities that. it has been a force for excellent in Venezuela and has actually received. continued six-month permissions to stay there.
The No. 2 U.S. oil business is anticipated to publish third quarter. earnings on Friday of $4.26 billion, according to quotes. assembled by monetary company LSEG, down 35% from the $6.53 billion. a year earlier on weaker oil prices and refining margins.
Mike Wirth is in a pickle, stated Frederic Boucher, risk. arbitrage analyst at Susquehanna Financial Group, a market maker. for Chevron and Hess stocks.
If you spend two years dealing with a deal, ensuring. investors you are right, just to be proven incorrect, should you. still be trusted with investors' cash?.
(source: Reuters)