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Prices for EUROPE GAS rise and reverse earlier losses
Dutch wholesale gas prices increased on Wednesday. They reversed earlier losses due to concerns about liquefied gas (LNG) supply if tensions escalate in Iran. LSEG data shows that the benchmark Dutch front-month 'contract' at TTF hub is up?1.42 Euros?at 32.55 Euros per megawatt hour by 1213 GMT. This is the highest level recorded since October 7, last year. The Dutch March rate was 31.66 Euros/MWh, an increase of 1.28 euros. The British day-ahead contract was down 0.40 pennies at 82.80 pence/therm. Iran warned its neighbours that it could strike U.S. military bases if Washington interferes with protests, despite the fact that weather forecast revisions showed?milder temperature than before and a strong supply. Gas?traders said that the market was nervous about the situation in Iran and possible risks to LNG supply. The oil price also rose for the fifth consecutive session due to fears that Iranian supplies could be disrupted by a possible U.S. strike on Iran, and possible retaliation on U.S. interests in the region. Analysts at LSEG said that the gas storage levels in North-West are likely to fall below 100 terawatt hours on March 1. This would be a positive factor. Prices fell this morning due to increased LNG exports and Norwegian?exports as well as lower demand forecasts for the coming days. LSEG data shows that the local distribution zone gas demand for north-west Europe is expected to decrease by 296 gigawatt-hours/day (GWh/d), to 3,600 GWh/d, in the next day. Wind speeds that are stronger than normal will also reduce the gas consumption of gas-fired plants. The benchmark contract on the European carbon markets was up by 0.13 euros at 90.87 euro per metric ton. (Reporting and editing by Nina Chestney, Susanna Twidala)
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Caledonia will spend $132m on Zimbabwe's largest gold mine in this year
Caledonia Mining Corporation announced on Wednesday that it will spend $132m this year to launch the development of Zimbabwe's biggest gold mine once it is operational. The record gold prices are helping miners expand production. Gold spot prices reached a new record of $4,639.48 per ounce on early Wednesday. This was fueled by the escalating tensions in Iran, concerns over the Federal Reserve’s autonomy, and softer inflation data that boosted bets for rate cuts. Caledonia stated in a production report that the planned expenditure, which is part of an overall capital expenditure programme of $162.5 millions for 2026, was subject to approval by the board and funding availability. Caledonia, which already operates ?the 80,000-ounce-per-year Blanket mine in Zimbabwe, plans to develop the Bilboes mine at a projected total capital cost of $584 million. The new mine will begin production in late 2028. A steady-state annual output of 200,000 ounces is anticipated starting from 2029, for an initial 10 year period. The company has said that it will fund the Bilboes Project through a combination of senior non-recourse debt, contributions made by existing operations, and specialised financing methods, such as streaming. In this method, investors provide cash in exchange for future metal supplies. Caledonia’s expansion plans got a boost last month after Zimbabwe’s government reversed its plans to double gold royalty rates and change the taxation of capital expenditure. (Reporting and editing by Nelson Banya, Joe Bavier and Chris Takudzwa Muronzi)
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Copper falls from record highs due to physical demand
The copper price hit a new record on Wednesday, thanks to persistent demand by speculative funds. However, some investors were concerned that the high price would discourage industrial buyers from buying. The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.1% to $13,176.50 per metric tonne by 1030 GMT after reaching a record high of $13,407. LME copper prices have risen by 44% in the last 12 months. This is due to disruptions at the mines and concerns about deficits for this year. Also, a large flow of metal has been sent to the U.S. before potential tariffs which could tighten supply elsewhere. "With all the?concerns? about debasement and financial risks, as well as Fed independence, these hard assets are just sensational," Ole Hansen, head commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, in Copenhagen, said. There's a limit to industrial metals, where we?hit a wall when it comes to potential demand destruction. I don't even know where this level is or if it's already reached. He said that if you look at the?technical signal, a closing below $13,000 will cause a downward reaction. Hansen stated that the copper demand in China appeared to be stable and there was a potential for stocking before the Lunar New Year holiday. After hitting a record high of 105.650 yuan, the most-traded contract for copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange ended daytime trading 0.9% higher, at 104.120 yuan per ton ($14.931.88). Investors bet that demand for tin, which is used in semiconductors, will grow rapidly as a result of the artificial intelligence boom. SHFE tin rose 8%, reaching the upper limit of 413,170 Yuan. LME tin increased 4.1%, to $51,550. The fundamentals of tin have not changed dramatically. Jing Xiao said that the price rally was fueled by speculative trading. Tom Langston?at The International Tin Association?agreed that supply-demand metrics had not changed, noting the record interest rates on the LME. Other metals saw a 0.1% increase in LME aluminium to $3.200 per ton. Zinc rose 1% at $3.232. Lead added 0.4% at $2.069, and nickel climbed 1.7% to 17.995.
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Malaysia's state utility signs a deal to send energy from Laos and Singapore, revitalizing a cross-border project
Malaysia's state-run utilities firm signed a 2-year energy - agreement to transmit electricity from Laos into Singapore. This deal revives a Southeast Asian multilateral power trade - agreement that has been stalled since the year 2024. Tenaga Nasional Berhad, in a filing to the bourse on Wednesday, said that Energy Wheeling Agreement Phase 2 is part of a project to integrate power from Laos with Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore. This will allow up to 100 megawatts in Laos to supply power via Thailand and Malaysia to Singapore using existing transmission links. The first phase was signed in 2022 with a validity of two years that ended June 22, 2024. Malaysia's Energy Minister in October last said that the delay was due to?local political changes in Thailand. According to an agreement signed Wednesday, the state utility Electricite?Du Laos pays TNB for wheeling?services in order to transmit energy produced in Laos from Singapore. The deal is part ?of the second phase of ?the Lao PDR-Thailand-Malaysia-Singapore Power Integration Project, which is a precursor to a ?broader ASEAN Power Grid initiative aiming to connect all ten member states and tackle the region's growing reliance on fossil fuels. (Reporting and editing by David Stanway; Ashley Tang)
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Gold and silver reach historic highs amid geopolitical tensions and Fed uncertainty
Silver broke through $90 for the first time and gold reached a new record on Wednesday. The escalating tensions in Iran, along with concerns about the Federal Reserve’s autonomy, fueled demand for safe havens, while lower inflation numbers boosted bets to cut rates. Gold spot rose 0.9%, to $4,627.72 an ounce, by 1001 GMT. This was after the gold price had reached a session high of $4.639.48. U.S. gold futures for delivery in February rose by 0.8% to $4 636. Jamie Dutta is the chief analyst at Nemo.money. He said that prices are rising because of "well-known haven characteristics" amid increased geopolitical risk, fiscal uncertainty and concerns over Fed independence. The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome 'Powell was backed by central bankers from around the globe on Tuesday. They issued an unprecedented statement of support after the Trump administration threatened to indict him, which could have a negative impact on the trust that people place in U.S. assets like the dollar. Dutta said that "protests in Iran maintain geopolitical tensions, resulting in a strong demand for bullion." HRANA, a rights group based in the United States, said that the death toll has reached 2,571, sparking threats from?U.S. intervention. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday that the core Consumer Price Index in the United States rose by 0.2% from one month to the next and 2.6% over the course of a year. Powell, the Fed's chairman, has been urged by President Donald Trump to reduce interest rates "meaningfully". The traders expect?two rate cuts in this year. Low interest rates are usually in favour of non-yielding gold. Spot silver rose 4%, to $90.46 an ounce. This is down from a record high of $91.53. It has risen by nearly 27% within just 14 days of this year. Dutta stated that "long-term targets" are big numbers like $5,000 and $100 respectively for gold and Silver. After touching a session high of $2,406.75 per ounce earlier, spot platinum rose 3.5%. It hit a record $2,478.50/oz on December 29. Palladium increased 0.1%, to $1840.19 per ounce. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez in Bengaluru, with Pablo Sinha reporting from Bengaluru)
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TotalEnergies and Bahrain's Bapco Energies form Middle East Trading Venture
TotalEnergies, the French oil giant, announced on Wednesday that it had?formed BxT Trading a joint venture with Bahrain's Bapco Energies. The Middle East-focused venture is expected to trade products from Bapco’s Sitra refinery, which produces 267,000 barrels per day. The partnership builds upon a 2024 agreement?underwhich Total agreed to expand and modernise the?Sitra refinery to reach a throughput capacity 380,000 barrels per d?ay and to share its trading expertise. It also explored options to partner with Bahrain in projects involving renewable energy and liquefied gas. Bapco announced in December a new increase of capacity to 405,000 bpd. In a recent statement, Bapco Energies chairman Shaikh Nasser bin Hamad Al Khalifa said, "Through our partnership with TotalEnergies, we are strengthening our downstream value chain, and reinforcing Bahrain’s position as a trusted and competitive player on the international energy market." Patrick Pouyanne, CEO of TotalEnergies, said that the joint venture would strengthen Total's Middle East position Two executives signed a contract in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday. (Reporting by America Hernandez in Paris. Mark Potter (Editing)
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TotalEnergies sells its SPDC assets in Nigeria to a new buyer
By America Hernandez PARIS, January '14 - French giant TotalEnergies signed an agreement to sell its 10% non-operated stake in the Nigerian oil asset SPDC (renamed Renaissance JV) to Vaaris. This follows a failed sale to Mauritius based Chappal Energies last year. Total retains a 'full economic interest in the?deal, which includes stakes of three other licenses that produce mainly?gases for Nigeria LNG. The company did not provide any further information on the buyer. The inability of the buyer to pay the $860 million price tag was the reason why Nigerian regulators rejected Total's first deal with Chappal Energies for the SPDC stakes. This dealt a serious blow to Total's attempts to liquidate its mature and polluting assets, as well as to reduce debt. The SPDC was plagued by hundreds of oil spills due to theft, sabotage, and operational problems that resulted in costly repairs?and high profile lawsuits. Shell sold its 30% share in SPDC to a consortium made up of mostly local?companies last year for up $2.4 billion. Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, or NNPC, holds a?55% stake in the joint venture while Eni of Italy has 5%. The Nigerian regulators must approve the deal. Reporting by America Hernandez, Editing by Jan Harvey & Tomasz Janowski
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Copper prices rise as concerns over supply outweigh dollar strength
The price of copper peaked on Wednesday as global supply concerns, mounting geopolitical risk and a stronger dollar outweighed the pressure. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most-traded contract for copper closed the daytime trading session 0.85% higher, at 104120 yuan per metric ton, after reaching an all-time record of 105650 yuan. The benchmark three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.58% at $13,240 per metric ton as of 0743 GMT after hitting a record high earlier. The price of copper has been supported by "disruptions" at mines, concerns about deficits in this year and an influx of red metal into the United States. Supply elsewhere is being squeezed by potential tariffs. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said on Tuesday that help was on its way for Iranians. Analysts say that this fueled concerns about geopolitical risk, which led some investors to rush into commodities with "healthy fundamentals" such as copper or tin. A stronger dollar has capped the price increases. The tin price in Shanghai and London has also reached record levels, with gains so far this month of 23,6% and 30,4% respectively. Analysts say that more funds have been invested in the tin industry, as investors bet on the rapid growth of demand for this metal which is used to manufacture semiconductors and will?benefit the artificial intelligence boom'. SHFE tin increased 8%, reaching the upper limit of 413,170 Yuan. LME tin rose?more than 5 % to $52,495. Jing Xiao is an analyst with broker SDIC Futures. She said that she does not believe there has been a dramatic shift in tin fundamentals. The round of 'price rally' was driven by speculative trade. Xiao stated that the demand for tin in 'the AI sector was overestimated, while the consumption of traditional 'users were underestimated. The high prices of the products have dampened consumer demand, while this year's supply growth will probably exceed expectations. This points to potential downside risks." SHFE aluminium slipped 0.06%. Nickel slipped 0.11%. Lead dipped by 0.17%. Zinc grew by 0.51%. Aluminium, nickel, and lead are among the other metals traded on the LME.
Trump's quest for $1 trillion is unlikely to bring about Saudi-Israeli ties
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, will land in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Tuesday. He will be welcomed with lavish ceremonies, palaces gilded in gold, and the prospect that $1 trillion worth of investments are in store. The raging Gaza war has prevented him from achieving a goal that he had long desired: Saudi-Israeli normalisation.
Two Gulf sources and an official from the United States said that behind closed doors, U.S. officials were quietly pressuring Israel to agree to a ceasefire immediately in Gaza. This was one of Saudi Arabia’s conditions for resuming normalization talks.
Steve Witkoff, Trump's Middle East envoy, told an Israeli embassy audience in Washington, this week, that he expected to see progress in expanding the Abraham Accords. The Abraham Accords were a series of agreements brokered by Trump during his first term, under which Arab countries including the UAE and Bahrain recognized Israel.
Witkoff stated in a video recording of his speech that "we think we will be making some or many announcements very soon, and we hope they will result in progress by next years." He will be expected to accompany Trump to the Middle East.
Two sources stated that the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's opposition to a permanent end to the war and the creation of a Palestinian State makes progress in similar talks with Riyadh very unlikely.
Saudi Arabia doesn't recognize Israel as legitimate. This means that the Middle East’s two most powerful economies and militaries do not have any formal diplomatic relations. Normalising relations would, say supporters of the move, bring stability and prosperity in the region while countering Iran’s influence.
Since the beginning of Israel's Gaza war, establishing ties is especially toxic for Saudi Arabia. It was the birthplace Islam.
According to six sources, including two Saudis and two U.S. government officials, this issue, which was central to bilateral discussions in Trump's term, is now effectively decoupled from other issues of economic and security between Washington and Saudi Arabia. All the people asked to remain anonymous in order to discuss sensitive diplomatic discussions.
Dennis Ross, an ex-U.S. negotiator, said that Saudi Arabia's defacto ruler, Crown Princess Mohammed bin Salman needs to see the Gaza War end, and have a path to a Palestinian State "before he engages in the normalization issue."
According to six sources, Washington and Riyadh are focusing Trump's visit primarily on the economic relationship and other regional issues. Both sides are looking at lucrative investments, such as mega-projects, arms deals, and artificial intelligence.
They said that the approach was cemented during diplomatic discussions between Saudi and U.S. officials before the trip. This is the first official state visit of Trump’s second term.
Trump has stated that he wants to invest a trillion dollars in U.S. firms, building upon the $600 billion commitment made by the crown prince.
The rich kingdom, which is the top oil exporter in the world, knows how to impress guests and secure favors. Sources said the goal is to avoid diplomatic landmines, and possibly, win concessions from Trump regarding the Gaza War and its aftermath.
The Trump administration wants to make this trip a big deal. This means lots of big announcements about deals and collaborations, which can be sold to Americans as good for America", said Robert Mogielnicki. He is a senior resident scholar with the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.
He said that "normalizing relations with Israel" was a more difficult task than rolling out a red carpet for Trump and announcing investments deals.
A State Department spokesperson refused to comment on an agreement reached before the trip. Trump, however, "will seek to strengthen the ties between our Arab Gulf partners and the United States during the visits."
The Saudi Government Communications Office did not respond to a comment request.
COURTING the Kingdom
Before Hamas' Oct.7 attack on Israel, which killed 1,200 people, and sparked the devastating Israeli offensive in Gaza - the Crown Prince was finalising a historic diplomatic agreement: A U.S. Defense pact as a trade for Riyadh recognizing Israel.
The scale of Israel’s campaign in Gaza - killing 52,000 and forcing 1.9 million people to flee - forced a pause on the talks. Bin Salman accused Israel's of genocide.
Two Gulf sources claimed that Trump, frustrated by the long-term crisis in Gaza, could use his trip to announce a U.S. plan to end the 18 month war.
They said that the plan could lead to a new transitional government in Gaza and new security arrangements - potentially reshaping region diplomacy, and opening up future normalization discussions.
Axios reports that Trump, in a sign of the importance of the diplomacy, met with Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer privately on Thursday. They discussed the nuclear and war talks with Iran.
The U.S. State Department didn't immediately answer questions about Trump’s Gaza discussions.
Trump has conspicuously not announced that he will be visiting Israel during his tour of the area. Two diplomats have noted that the U.S. President has not spoken about his "Gaza Riviera plan" which angered the Arab World with its suggestion to resettle the entire Gazan community and U.S. possession of the strip.
Washington took a number positive actions in the lead up to the visit. A Saudi ceasefire in Yemen coincides with an agreement by the United States to stop bombing Houthis. Washington has also separated civil nuclear talks and the normalisation issue.
To bypass the opposition of Congress, the stalled Saudi U.S. Defense Pact was revived as a scaled-down version of security guarantees.
Three sources confirmed that the Trump administration is now taking up these talks along with discussions on a civil nuclear agreement. They cautioned, however, that it would take some time to define the terms.
CHINA INFLUENCE
Trump's Saudi Arabia trip is his second foreign trip after his reelection and first official state visit since his inauguration. He attended the funeral of the pope in Rome. He will also travel to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
Diplomats claim that beneath the showmanship and the hype of Trump's visit, lies a calculated U.S. attempt to reassert its influence and reshape the economic alignments of a region in which Beijing, Washington's main economic rival, has steadily increased its foothold within the petrodollar-based system.
Trump's first overseas trip in his first term began in Riyadh where he announced $350 billion of Saudi investments.
Trump has the deepest trust of the Saudi leadership. This is rooted in his close relationship with them during his first term, which was marked by massive arms deals and the steadfast U.S. support for Bin Salman.
Five industry sources confirmed that Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Allies plan to ask Trump to relax U.S. Regulations, which have been deterring foreign investment in the U.S. for years. This is especially true of sectors considered to be part of America's critical national infrastructure.
Saudi ministers are expected to advocate for a business-friendly environment in meetings with U.S. officials. This is especially true at a moment when China is actively courting Gulf capital.
Saudi Arabia will not find it easy to counter China's economic growth, even though this may be the top priority of Trump's foreign policies. China's influence in Saudi Arabia has grown since the launch of Vision 2030. It now dominates sectors such as energy, infrastructure, and renewables. Samia and Humeyra Pakuk reported from Washington, with additional reporting by Alexander Cornwell and Pesha Mahed in Riyadh. Samia and Humeyra also wrote the article. Frank Jack Daniel edited it.
(source: Reuters)