Analysis-Russian expulsion of Ukrainian troops from Kursk removes obstacle to peace

The ejection by Russia of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk area ends the largest incursion on Russian soil since World War Two. It also removes an obstacle to a peaceful settlement that Moscow had been reluctant to reach with so many hostile troops on its territory. Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, declared a unilateral ceasefire of three days the day after Moscow announced that the Kursk operation was complete. This was to commemorate the 80th anniversary since the Soviet Union's victory in World War Two.

On condition of anonymity, two Russian sources said that the Kremlin would not accept a settlement to the war as long as Ukrainian troops are in Kursk.

Ukraine launched its most daring attack on August 6, just over two years after Russia invaded the Kursk area in 2022. Supported by drones and heavy Western weapons, the country rammed through the Russian border.

The attack was costly to Kyiv, as the Ukrainian forces claimed almost 1,400 square kilometers of Kursk at its peak.

According to Ukrainian open-source maps, Russia now controls an area of Ukraine that is roughly equal in size to the U.S. State of Pennsylvania.

Analysts say that the diverting of Kyiv forces to Kursk helped Russia accelerate its advance in eastern Ukraine.

"Essentially, Ukraine exchanged territory that it valued the most, its own, for territory it did not value and could not hold forever," said Christopher McCallion. McCallion is a fellow with Defense Priorities in Washington DC, an organization advocating a strong U.S. army with a conservative foreign policy. Ukraine, who has been retreating from Kursk for weeks, but claims to still have some active troops there, believes that the incursion distracted Russia, forcing it to deploy troops elsewhere. Kyiv said that its objectives included securing its border with Sumy and gaining territory for future peace negotiations.

Washington's shuttle diplomacy has now pushed these talks forward, but without Ukraine's bargaining chip. There are still major differences that could undermine the peace efforts of President Donald Trump. One source said that if the talks fail, Russian forces would continue to fight.

Requests for comment from the Kremlin or Ukraine's general staff were not immediately responded to.

Local officials claim that Russia has intensified its attacks on Sumy in recent weeks. This is across the border from Kursk. A Russian missile attack in the capital of Sumy killed 35 people on April 14. Russia claimed it targeted a group of Ukrainian soldiers. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the president of Ukraine, acknowledged that Kyiv forces are now active in Russia’s Belgorod Region, also near the border. He described it as a move to protect Ukrainian towns. Russia has a few slivers across the border in Kharkiv from Belgorod. According to U.S. proposals for a peace agreement, Ukraine would regain control of all of its territory at Kharkiv while Russia would keep control of just over a fifth.

THE BATTLE FOR KURSK

The Kremlin was embarrassed by the invasion of Kursk in 1943. This was the scene of the biggest tank battle ever fought in history, between Soviet and Nazi forces.

The announcement of victory against Ukrainian troops coincides with the 80th anniversary celebration of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazism on May 9. This gives Putin a victory to show off in front of dignitaries such as Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva from Brazil and China's Xi Jinping.

According to Russian sources, despite warnings of an imminent attack, the Russian forces were caught off guard by the Ukrainian assault.

Russian officials spoke at the time of chaos, as Russians fled to the east and the Russian border guards and army attempted to combat small, highly mobile Ukrainian unit speeding along country roads in Kursk with Western weapons and vehicles.

A minimum of 120,000 people had to be evacuated. Putin, visibly incensed, was seen publicly scolding Alexei Smirnov who, at the time, was the governor of Kursk. He was arrested on April charges of embezzling money intended for border defense. He denies these charges. The size of the Russian military operations was impressive when I visited Kursk, Russia, in March: tanks, missiles systems, and thousands of soldiers on the move, while civilians warned of the danger of drones and missile attacks amid the air attack sirens. North Korean troops and shells helped Russia to fight back against the Russians in Kursk. Putin expressed his gratitude personally to Kim Jong Un, the leader of North Korea.

According to the Russian defence ministry, Ukrainian forces lost over 412 tanks and several thousand military vehicles in Kursk. Ukraine says that Russia has suffered over 62,000 deaths and injuries during the operation. Both sides have not released their own numbers of casualties. Both sides dispute these numbers, which are not independent.

OFFENSIVE

In August, as Ukrainian forces raced to expand their territory at Kursk in Russia, the country sent units into the area to slow down the advance and stop Ukrainian forces from reaching Kurchatov Nuclear Power Station which provides a large portion of the electricity for southern Russia.

In less than a month the front was stabilised, and Russia could counterattack.

David J. Betz is a professor at King's College London who specializes in war and the modern world. He said that there were likely some Russian generals who were embarrassed by the Ukrainian incursion.

He said that Russia has a long history of successfully defending its borders. However, unlike other countries who are able defend themselves using geography, Russia is forced to use human bodies and distance to do so.

Russian and Western sources reported that Russian forces gradually began to grind down the Ukrainian defences while Moscow deployed thousands of fibre-optic, or "fibre-optic" drones. These drones are harder to jam than any other drones.

According to Ukrainian maps, within three months Russia had reduced the area controlled by Ukraine by more than half. By February 6, this area had been reduced to just 428 square kilometers. Putin, who had been in military fatigues during the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the third anniversary, made a surprise trip to Kursk to order the top brass to continue their advance. He also suggested that Russia create a buffer along the Ukrainian border.

In March, Ukraine lost over 300 square kilometers of territory that it held in Kursk.

Valery Gerasimov is the top Russian general in charge of the war. He told Putin that Russia cleared Kursk after the last Ukrainian troops were forced out of Gornal, a village near the border.

He claimed that Ukraine had deployed 60,000 troops to Kursk during the height of the operations, which undermined its other forces. He also praised the North Korean troops who fought "shoulder-to-shoulder" with their Russian counterparts.

Gerasimov said that Russian forces "continued" to carve a buffer zone in accordance with Putin's orders, and had taken over 90 square kilometers of Ukraine's Sumy Region.

Ukrainian officials had previously claimed that Russian assault groups were in Sumy. (Reporting and editing by Guy Faulconbridge)

(source: Reuters)