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Aluminium falls on a stronger dollar but records biggest weekly gain of a month
Aluminum fell on Friday as the stronger U.S. Dollar and growing fears of an?economic recession due to?a??prolonged Iran War?outweighed supply concerns that helped the metal record its largest weekly gain in a single month. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded aluminium closed the daytime trading down 0.78%, at 24,660 Yuan ($3,585.92), per metric ton. The contract gained 3% on a weekly basis. London Metal Exchange (LME), is closed Friday and Monday in observance of the Easter holiday. Dollar strengthened after U.S. president Donald Trump's speech about Iran. The speech dampened expectations for a quick end to the conflict, reigniting concerns of inflation, rate hikes and a possible recession, which would hinder demand for industrial metals. The dollar's strength makes commodities priced in other currencies less attractive to investors. Stocks in Shanghai-monitored warehouses are also increasing, putting pressure on prices. On Friday, the number of tons rose by 3.4% compared to the previous week, reaching 470,108, the highest level since April 17, 2019. The price of aluminium, a light metal that is used for packaging, transport and construction, soared this week after Iran attacked two Middle -East producers of the metal. This heightened fears about a possible supply shortage in the Gulf, which accounted for 9% of the global supply prior to the war. The Iranian war has tightened global supply, boosting margins and some of the earlier forecasts that showed flat shipments have been revised sharply higher. Copper was the least affected metal, followed by nickel, which fell 0.13%. Tin dropped 0.77%. Zinc slipped 0.61%. Lead added 0.42%.
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Iron ore to suffer second consecutive weekly loss due to high China stocks
Iron ore prices continued to fall on Friday for a second consecutive session. They were also set 'for a second week of declines,' mainly due to the high portside stock levels in a major consumer, China. However, signs of improved demand helped limit this drop. The iron ore contract most traded on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed the daytime trading down 0.5% to 799.5 Yuan ($116.26), posting a week-long fall of 1.5%. As of 0700 GMT the benchmark May iron ore traded on the Singapore Exchange was 0.92% lower, at $105.4 per ton. This represents a 1.7% drop so far this week. Analysts said that the trade was dominated by downward pressure due to high portside stock, but there were no significant changes in supply and demand. Data from Mysteel showed that iron ore inventories at 47 Chinese ports increased 0.5% in a week to 177.5 millions tons on?April 2. This is close to the record high of 180.9 million tons reached?in late March. Concerns that the availability of spot iron ore could increase if China’s state iron buyer and BHP made progress in negotiations regarding a supply contract for 2026 weighed heavily on sentiment. Vietnam's trade ministry reported that prices were also being impacted by a temporary antidumping levy up to 27,83% on certain Chinese hot-rolled steel coil products, starting April 17. The downside was however capped by signs that demand had improved as some mills recommenced production following maintenance. Mysteel data shows that the?average daily metal production, which is a measure of iron ore consumption, increased by?2.7% on a week-on-week basis to 2.37 million tonnes as of April 2, marking its highest level since October 2025. Analysts at the ship-tracking company Kpler say that "the ongoing conflict in Middle East continues to exert indirect pressure by driving up fuel and freight costs." Coking coal and coke, the other ingredients used in steelmaking, also declined by 1.2% and 0.86% respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are mixed. Rebar fell 0.23%, while hot-rolled coils dropped 0.24%. Wire rod rose 2.18 percent, and stainless steel gained 0.78%.
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PMI data shows that growth in the UAE's non-oil private sectors slowed to a near-four-year low during March.
A 'business survey' released on Friday showed that the United Arab Emirates non-oil sector expanded at its slowest rate in almost four years in March, as the Middle East conflict impacted demand and disrupted supply chains. The S&P Global UAE Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 52.9 from 55.0 in Feburary, which is the lowest level seen since July 2025. However, it remains in growth territory. The growth in output and new orders slowed down markedly. The output subindex fell to 54.9, the lowest rate of growth since June 20, 21. The demand growth has also slowed, with the subindex of new orders falling to 54.5 in February from 59.5, which marks a'slowest expansion since last August. David Owen, Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said that anecdotal feedback suggested?that tourism, retail, and logistics sectors were most affected. Segments such as technology, and construction showed a more mellow, but still significant impact. While the war had "taken a toll" on the non-oil sector in general, he said that for many firms the orders books remained resilient and output increased. After the Strait of Hormuz was closed, supplier delivery times increased for the first time since September 2021. Meanwhile, backlogs of works grew at the fastest rate so far this year. The business expectations for the coming 12 months have fallen to their lowest levels in just over five years. The headline PMI in Dubai, which is the business and tourism center of the region, dropped to 53.2, from 54.6. This was the weakest improvement for non-oil businesses in nine months. Hugh Lawson, Editor and Reporter (Reporting)
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Iron ore prices fall for the second consecutive week on high China stock
Iron ore prices continued to fall on Friday for the second consecutive?session. They were also on course for a second weekly drop, due to elevated portside stock levels?in China, their largest consumer. However, signs of improving?demand?helped limit the decline. The most traded iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange has fallen 0.81%, to 797 Yuan ($115.85), a metric tonne, and lost 1.8% this week. As of 0107 GMT the benchmark May iron ore price on the Singapore Exchange was 1.16% lower, at $105.15 per ton. This represents a 2% decline so far this week. Analysts said that the trade was dominated by downward pressure due to high stocks at port, and that the conflict between supply-and-demand remained tame. Data from Mysteel revealed that iron ore inventories at 47 Chinese port cities rose by 0.5% on a weekly basis to 177.5 million tonnes as of April 2. This is close to the record high of 179.47 million tons reached in mid-March. Concerns that the availability of spot iron ore could increase if China’s state iron buyer and BHP made progress in negotiations regarding a 2026 supply contract affected sentiment. The downside was however capped by signs that?demand is improving as some mills have resumed production following equipment maintenance. Mysteel data shows that the average daily hot metal production, which is a measure of iron ore consumption, has risen 2.7% in a week to 2,37 million tons on April 2. This is its highest level since October 2025. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is causing indirect pressure on iron ore prices by increasing freight and fuel costs, according to analysts from ship-tracking company Kpler. Coking coal and coke, the other ingredients used in steelmaking, also declined by?0.98% apiece. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mixed. Rebar fell 0.26%; hot-rolled coil dropped 0.18%; wire rod grew 1.97%, and stainless steel gained 0.81%. ($1 = 6.8797 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
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Trump threatens to strike Iran’s electric power plants and bridges
Donald Trump, the U.S. President, warned late on Thursday that he would destroy bridges and electric power plants across Iran. This was his latest threat of destroying Iran's infrastructure. The U.S. Military "hasn't yet started to destroy what's remaining in Iran." Trump posted on Twitter that he would be focusing his attention next on bridges, followed by electric power plants. In his post, he said that Iran’s leadership "knows" what needs to be done and "has to be done FAST!" Trump, who previously has offered shifting timelines for the war and different objectives, said in a televised address on Wednesday that if Iran refused to 'give in' to Washington, the war would escalate, and possible strikes against its oil and energy infrastructure could be launched. The U.S. government released an open letter on Thursday in which dozens of international law experts said that the U.S.'s strikes against Iran could amount to war crimes. The 1949 Geneva Conventions on Humanitarian Conduct in War prohibits attacks on sites considered vital for civilians. According to the Geneva Conventions and their additional protocols, parties in a military conflict are required to distinguish between "civil objects and military targets" and attacks on civilians are prohibited. "We will hit them very hard over the next two to three week." Trump stated in his Wednesday speech that "we are going to take them back to their Stone Ages where they belong." Trump did not give a timetable for the end of the war, despite his claim that Washington is nearing completion of its goals in Iran. The U.S. and Israel began the war on 28 February when they attacked Iran. Tehran retaliated by launching attacks on Israel and Gulf States with U.S. base. The joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, as well as Israeli attacks in Lebanon, have resulted in the deaths of thousands. The war has also?raised oil prices and shook?global market? Trump's contradictory messages have not helped ease concerns about his country's largest military attack since 2003's invasion of Iraq. Kanishka Singh reported from Washington, Himani Sarkar edited by Raju Gopalakrishnan.
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Aluminium falls on a stronger dollar but is headed for the biggest weekly gain of a month
Aluminum prices fell on Friday as a stronger currency and mounting fears of an economic recession - after fading hopes for a quick 'end' to the Iran War - outweighed supply concerns that kept the metals on course for a week gain. As of 0152 GMT, the most traded aluminium at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.66% to 24,690 yuan (US$3,586.94). This week it has gained 3.2%, which is the largest weekly gain for a month. The London 'Metal Exchange (LME), which is closed for Easter on Friday and Monday, will remain closed. The dollar increased after U.S. president Donald Trump's speech about Iran shattered market expectations of a quick end to the war and rekindled fears of inflation, interest rate increases, and a possible recession. The dollar's strength makes commodities priced in greenbacks less affordable to investors who use other currencies. Prices for the light metal, which is used in construction, packaging, and transport, reached a near four-year high earlier this week. The attacks by Iran on two Middle East aluminium manufacturers heightened fears that the Gulf region, which accounted for 9% of global supply before the war, would suffer a greater'supply loss. The Iranian war has tightened global supply, boosting margins and causing some of the earlier estimates for flat shipments to be revised higher. Other SHFE metals saw a 0.1% drop in copper, a 0.09 percent decline in nickel, a 0.55% decrease for tin, and 1.18% reductions in zinc, while lead increased by 0.18%.
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McGeever: The 'no hire' US economy is exposed by the war in Iran.
The U.S. employment?growth has virtually slowed to a standstill. This was acceptable for policymakers and investors before the Iran war. It shouldn't be so now. Since a while, the labor market has steadily declined, but it has been hidden by a?headline unemployment rate that has risen, but only gradually. It is still low by historical standards at 4.4%. The labor market is stagnant. JOLTS, the closely watched Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey released this week, showed that hiring has now reached its lowest level since April 2020. It's possible that hiring will not pick up in the next few months. Bureau of Labor Statistics figures are expected on Friday to show that the U.S. created a total of 60,000 nonfarm jobs in March. This would give a monthly average of around 30,000 in the first three months. The average six-month monthly payroll growth was negative just a few months back. This is not sustainable for the world's largest economy, a $30 trillion juggernaut, with a workforce of 170 million. The increase in incomes leads to an increase in spending, economic activity and, ultimately, growth. Low hiring slows down the flow of tax revenue into the government's coffers. This puts a strain on public finances. BREAKEVEN JOB GROWTH IS NOW AROUND ZERO The fall in "breakeven" employment growth can explain the puzzle of a relatively stable unemployment rate despite evaporating jobs growth. This is the level of employment required to maintain the unemployment rate. According to a Dallas Fed report published this week, three years ago there were around 250,000 new jobs created each month. It has been declining steadily ever since and is now almost zero. This means that the unemployment rate is stable even if the economy barely creates any jobs. Normaly, a slowing of the?demand for employees should be a warning sign that the unemployment rate will soon rise, that the economy has slowed, and the recession risk is increasing. A job growth rate below the estimated breakeven level is a more alarming warning. The labor supply is also decreasing rapidly. This is largely because of the Trump administration’s policy to reduce net immigration. The longer-term impacts are yet to be determined. Currently, however, they are compensating for the decline in hiring. The jobs market might appear stable from the outside if the labor supply and demand is roughly equal, and the unemployment rate has remained relatively stable. It's a bad labor market. No longer so ruthless or confident The fragile labor market is also more susceptible to breaking, which puts the delicate balance at risk. Energy prices are structurally higher and inflation is rising due to the supply shocks caused by the Middle East conflict. These prices will continue to rise at least through the end of this year and possibly beyond. This means that consumers' bills and company costs are likely to increase. Gasoline is over $4 per gallon and oil is above $100 a barrel. Household budgets are under pressure. The financial climate has tightened and businesses have been hampered by rising input costs, such as energy and transportation. Spring and summer season factors are also a hindrance to hiring. The Federal Reserve ?paused its interest-rate-cutting cycle in January, and policymakers seemed more confident that downside risks to the labor market were diminishing. Jerome Powell, the Chair of the Federal Reserve, said that artificial intelligence-driven productivity growth could help complement the "low-hire and low-fire" labor dynamics, which he believes will keep inflation under control. This was a common view before the Iran War. The economy is looking less robust, much like the labor market. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Trafigura denies Bolivia's claim of its fuel contract being suspended
Trafigura has not ceased its contracts with Bolivia's oil and gas state company YPFB, a spokesperson for the company said on Thursday. The company was rejecting a claim made by Bolivian Energy Minister Mauricio Medinaceli. Medinaceli announced on Tuesday that Bolivia will suspend its gasoline contracts Trafigura, and with rival trading house Vitol, until the investigation into the alleged smuggling of poor-quality fuel from Chile is completed. Later, on Thursday, YPFB confirmed its main supply contracts are still in effect, ensuring a?continuity of supply. The state-owned company has announced that it has signed an addition to its existing contract with Vitol in order to set stricter limits on gum and manganese. YPFB stated in a press release that the?new quality standards exceed current Bolivian regulation and will be implemented without additional costs to the state. The spokesperson for Trafigura said that the contracts between Trafigura & YPFB did not include the supply of fuel. "Trafigura always fulfilled its contractual obligations and received no complaints or claims from YPFB relating?to product quality or 'any other?? matter. The contracts are still in force and not suspended." Vitol couldn't be reached immediately for comment. Medinaceli announced the decision 'after the government reported that 5,000 tanker truck carrying adulterated gasoline had entered Bolivia through a transnational network of smugglers. It is estimated that $150 million in adulterated gas was moved between October 2025 to March 2026. Reporting by Robert Harvey and Daniel Ramos in London; Editing by Jan Harvey
Analysis-Russian expulsion of Ukrainian troops from Kursk removes obstacle to peace
The ejection by Russia of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk area ends the largest incursion on Russian soil since World War Two. It also removes an obstacle to a peaceful settlement that Moscow had been reluctant to reach with so many hostile troops on its territory. Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, declared a unilateral ceasefire of three days the day after Moscow announced that the Kursk operation was complete. This was to commemorate the 80th anniversary since the Soviet Union's victory in World War Two.
On condition of anonymity, two Russian sources said that the Kremlin would not accept a settlement to the war as long as Ukrainian troops are in Kursk.
Ukraine launched its most daring attack on August 6, just over two years after Russia invaded the Kursk area in 2022. Supported by drones and heavy Western weapons, the country rammed through the Russian border.
The attack was costly to Kyiv, as the Ukrainian forces claimed almost 1,400 square kilometers of Kursk at its peak.
According to Ukrainian open-source maps, Russia now controls an area of Ukraine that is roughly equal in size to the U.S. State of Pennsylvania.
Analysts say that the diverting of Kyiv forces to Kursk helped Russia accelerate its advance in eastern Ukraine.
"Essentially, Ukraine exchanged territory that it valued the most, its own, for territory it did not value and could not hold forever," said Christopher McCallion. McCallion is a fellow with Defense Priorities in Washington DC, an organization advocating a strong U.S. army with a conservative foreign policy. Ukraine, who has been retreating from Kursk for weeks, but claims to still have some active troops there, believes that the incursion distracted Russia, forcing it to deploy troops elsewhere. Kyiv said that its objectives included securing its border with Sumy and gaining territory for future peace negotiations.
Washington's shuttle diplomacy has now pushed these talks forward, but without Ukraine's bargaining chip. There are still major differences that could undermine the peace efforts of President Donald Trump. One source said that if the talks fail, Russian forces would continue to fight.
Requests for comment from the Kremlin or Ukraine's general staff were not immediately responded to.
Local officials claim that Russia has intensified its attacks on Sumy in recent weeks. This is across the border from Kursk. A Russian missile attack in the capital of Sumy killed 35 people on April 14. Russia claimed it targeted a group of Ukrainian soldiers. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the president of Ukraine, acknowledged that Kyiv forces are now active in Russia’s Belgorod Region, also near the border. He described it as a move to protect Ukrainian towns. Russia has a few slivers across the border in Kharkiv from Belgorod. According to U.S. proposals for a peace agreement, Ukraine would regain control of all of its territory at Kharkiv while Russia would keep control of just over a fifth.
THE BATTLE FOR KURSK
The Kremlin was embarrassed by the invasion of Kursk in 1943. This was the scene of the biggest tank battle ever fought in history, between Soviet and Nazi forces.
The announcement of victory against Ukrainian troops coincides with the 80th anniversary celebration of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazism on May 9. This gives Putin a victory to show off in front of dignitaries such as Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva from Brazil and China's Xi Jinping.
According to Russian sources, despite warnings of an imminent attack, the Russian forces were caught off guard by the Ukrainian assault.
Russian officials spoke at the time of chaos, as Russians fled to the east and the Russian border guards and army attempted to combat small, highly mobile Ukrainian unit speeding along country roads in Kursk with Western weapons and vehicles.
A minimum of 120,000 people had to be evacuated. Putin, visibly incensed, was seen publicly scolding Alexei Smirnov who, at the time, was the governor of Kursk. He was arrested on April charges of embezzling money intended for border defense. He denies these charges. The size of the Russian military operations was impressive when I visited Kursk, Russia, in March: tanks, missiles systems, and thousands of soldiers on the move, while civilians warned of the danger of drones and missile attacks amid the air attack sirens. North Korean troops and shells helped Russia to fight back against the Russians in Kursk. Putin expressed his gratitude personally to Kim Jong Un, the leader of North Korea.
According to the Russian defence ministry, Ukrainian forces lost over 412 tanks and several thousand military vehicles in Kursk. Ukraine says that Russia has suffered over 62,000 deaths and injuries during the operation. Both sides have not released their own numbers of casualties. Both sides dispute these numbers, which are not independent.
OFFENSIVE
In August, as Ukrainian forces raced to expand their territory at Kursk in Russia, the country sent units into the area to slow down the advance and stop Ukrainian forces from reaching Kurchatov Nuclear Power Station which provides a large portion of the electricity for southern Russia.
In less than a month the front was stabilised, and Russia could counterattack.
David J. Betz is a professor at King's College London who specializes in war and the modern world. He said that there were likely some Russian generals who were embarrassed by the Ukrainian incursion.
He said that Russia has a long history of successfully defending its borders. However, unlike other countries who are able defend themselves using geography, Russia is forced to use human bodies and distance to do so.
Russian and Western sources reported that Russian forces gradually began to grind down the Ukrainian defences while Moscow deployed thousands of fibre-optic, or "fibre-optic" drones. These drones are harder to jam than any other drones.
According to Ukrainian maps, within three months Russia had reduced the area controlled by Ukraine by more than half. By February 6, this area had been reduced to just 428 square kilometers. Putin, who had been in military fatigues during the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the third anniversary, made a surprise trip to Kursk to order the top brass to continue their advance. He also suggested that Russia create a buffer along the Ukrainian border.
In March, Ukraine lost over 300 square kilometers of territory that it held in Kursk.
Valery Gerasimov is the top Russian general in charge of the war. He told Putin that Russia cleared Kursk after the last Ukrainian troops were forced out of Gornal, a village near the border.
He claimed that Ukraine had deployed 60,000 troops to Kursk during the height of the operations, which undermined its other forces. He also praised the North Korean troops who fought "shoulder-to-shoulder" with their Russian counterparts.
Gerasimov said that Russian forces "continued" to carve a buffer zone in accordance with Putin's orders, and had taken over 90 square kilometers of Ukraine's Sumy Region.
Ukrainian officials had previously claimed that Russian assault groups were in Sumy. (Reporting and editing by Guy Faulconbridge)
(source: Reuters)