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MORNING Bid EUROPE: Trade-driven rally concludes the week on a low note
Stella Qiu gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The week began with a bang, but by Friday traders were beginning to worry that the recovery had been overshot. They also feared that there would be more twists and turn in the trade saga. Wall Street and European futures are virtually unchanged, while Asian shares are in a mixed state. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell by 0.8%. Alibaba's more-than-5% fall was a major factor. Investors were not impressed with its earnings. Australian shares performed better, rising by 0.7%. Now, it seems that the stock market is acting as if there was never a tariff war. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan hovers just below its seven-month high. Even blue-chip stocks in China have recovered their losses since President Donald Trump's April 2 announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" on the rest the world - which has since been put on hold. Investors who had been beaten down by the bond market cheered a surprise drop in U.S. Producer Prices and a soft core Retail Sales print. They increased their forecast for rate cuts from 49 basis points to 56 basis points for this year. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points on Friday to 4.424%, continuing a 7-bps drop overnight. Trump has been very busy over the last few days promoting deals in the Middle East. This includes a possible nuclear deal with Iran. Trump's remarks that a deal is near sent oil price tumbling by 2% on Friday. Markets are eager to hear about progress in the trade negotiations with China, and any other trade agreements that may be signed after an agreement reached with Britain. Remember that tariffs have been higher since the 1930s, even before Trump started his crusade against trade. Walmart, the largest retailer in the world, announced that it will have to raise prices this month because of the high tariffs. This means more pain for American consumers. The latest U.S. prices data may have looked benign but it could only be a matter time before the tariff impact starts to show in the hard numbers the Federal Reserve needs to see to decide its response to the trade-related uncertainty. Economic calendars for Europe and the U.S. could be a little thin. U.S. releases include the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey and import prices for April. These could be helpful for gauging Trump's tariff maneuvering. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Friday. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey U.S. Import Prices for April
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Topside for Hollandse Kust (west Beta) Substation Set to Sail to Final Location
Two weeks after the successful load out, the steel topside for the Hollandse Kust (west Beta) substation platform is ready to leave the port of Hoboken near Antwerp in the Netherlands for its final North Sea destination.The topside is schedule to leave the Dutch port on May 17, on a floating pontoon via the Scheldt and the Western Scheldt towards the North Sea.As soon as Heerema Marine Contractors’ installation vessel Sleipnir has completed its current job in British waters, it will sail to the coast of North Holland to start the installation operation.The superstructure of the transformer platform, weighing over 3,500 tonnes, will be installed 50 kilometers off the coast of Egmond aan Zee.As part of the job, Sleipnir will lift the 45-metre long, 20-metre wide and 25-metre-high structure from the floating pontoon and place it on the jacket, which has been firmly anchored to the seabed since May 2024.(Credit: TenneT)The topside and jacket will then be welded together and connected to the electricity grid in the coming months.Through this connection, the electricity from the 700 MW project, operated by RWE/OranjeWind, will be fed to the high-voltage grid via the transformer station in Wijk aan Zee.The Hollandse Kust West Beta offshore wind farm is expected to enter service in 2025.
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Copper prices rise on optimism about US-China trade
Copper prices rose on Friday, and are on track to finish the week on a positive note, thanks to a truce in the Sino-American tariff war. However, concerns about the long-term demand of the metal have capped any further gains. Asian stocks are set for a strong, but tempered week as the euphoria surrounding the U.S. China trade talks has faded. Meanwhile, renewed bets on policy easing by the United States have sparked a rally among the beaten down bond markets. As of 0238 GMT the benchmark copper price on the London Metal Exchange was up by 0.1% to $9,585 per metric ton. The most traded copper contract on Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.1% to 78,430 Yuan ($10,889.43). Metals from Shanghai said that "Chinese traders were happy with the 90-day break, but the market was still uncertain as to what would happen after 90 days." She added that the fact that China exporters are rushing to ship cargoes is a telling sign. LME copper prices are up around 1.5% this week, while Shanghai copper prices have increased by about 1%. The initial optimism about the 90-day suspension of most retaliatory duties agreed between Beijing and Washington has faded. The market has also been focusing on potential new tariffs imposed by the U.S. on copper imports since February. Other London metals saw aluminium rise 0.1% per ton to $2492, zinc fell 0.1% at $2723 and lead dropped 0.4% to $1996.5. Tin rose by 0.1% to $33,000. Analysts expect the price to be between 78,000-79,000 Yuan per tonne in the near future, reflecting a mixed market sentiment. SHFE aluminium dropped by 0.3%, to 20,185 Yuan per ton. Zinc fell by 0.6%, to 22,595 Yuan. Lead also declined 0.5% to 16920 Yuan. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other related stories.
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Iron ore prices fall on the back of falling demand in the near term, but still head for a weekly gain
The price of iron ore futures fell on Friday, despite a trade truce that was reached between the US and China. This is due to signs of a softer near-term market demand as well as growing concern over the outcome of the Sino-US tariff war. As of 0228 GMT on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange, the most traded September iron ore contract was trading 0.75% lower, at 729.5 Yuan ($101.3) per metric ton. This represents a 4.7% increase so far this week. As of 0220 GMT the benchmark June iron ore traded on the Singapore Exchange had fallen by 0.68% to $100.5 per ton. This represents a 3.7% gain this week. A survey by consultancy Mysteel revealed that the average daily hot metal production, which is a measure of iron ore consumption, fell 0.4% from the previous week to approximately 2.45 million tonnes as of May 15. This weighed on sentiment and prices. Analysts and traders expect hot metal production to remain stable in May and June, as mills are encouraged by profit margins to keep up their high operating rates. The easing of trade tensions is likely going spur another wave of first-run shipments. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence analysts forecast an average annual ore price of $100, despite the subdued outlook for demand amid possible China steel production cuts and renewed optimism about easing trade tensions. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also fell on the DCE. The declines were 2.88% and 1.49 %, respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have also fallen. Rebar fell 0.51%, while hot-rolled coils dropped 0.55%. Wire rod slumped 0.38%, and stainless steel declined 0.42%. ($1 = 7,2033 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahniwala; Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
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Gold has its worst week for six months due to trade calm
Gold prices fell on Friday, and were set to experience their biggest weekly drop in six months as a stronger US dollar and diminishing trade war fears dampened its appeal. As of 0222 GMT, spot gold was down 0.5% at $3,223.06 per ounce. Bullion is down about 3% this week, and it's on track to have its worst performance weekly since November 2024. U.S. Gold Futures fell 0.1% to $3.224.90. Gold priced in greenbacks is now more expensive to overseas buyers due to the dollar's 0.3% gain for the past week. Ilya Spirak, global macro head at Tastylive, said that "gold prices were under heavy pressure this week due to the markets' cheering of a de-escalation of the U.S. China trade war." The U.S. announced earlier this week that it and China had agreed to temporarily reduce the high tariffs, which were imposed on April. Retail sales growth in the U.S. slowed down as well. A report revealed that consumer prices in April rose less than anticipated. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated on Thursday that the U.S. is in a good position, with inflation headed to the central banks' 2% target. However, trade policies have clouded this outlook. The markets are pricing 57 basis point rate cuts for this year. It is expected that the easing will begin in September. In a low rate environment, gold, which is traditionally viewed as a hedge to economic and political uncertainty, thrives. Gold price drops continue to attract buyers, which shows the precious metal is still a preferred asset. Global growth and inflation forecasts are still murky, said KCM Trade's Chief Market Analyst Tim Waterer. Silver spot fell 0.6%, to $32.49 per ounce. Platinum dropped 0.3%, to $986.58. Palladium was down 1.1% at $957.42. (Reporting and editing by Sumana Jacob-Phillips and Sherry Mukherjee, Bengaluru)
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Indonesian military: 18 separatists were killed in Papua, according to the country's military
An official confirmed that Indonesian military killed 18 Papuan Separatists in an operation conducted in the easternmost region Papua on Thursday. Three civilians were also killed. In a statement, Kristomei Santuri, the military spokesperson, said that during Wednesday's raid, the military seized dozens munitions including an assault weapon, bows andarrows, and an unspecified home-made weapon. The Indonesian military suffered no casualties. Sebby Samboom, a spokesperson for the Papua Separatists, said that three of its members were dead. A prominent church group in Papua, citing reports from local churches, said that three civilians died during the shootout. Nearly 1,000 people were evacuated. Ronald Rischard is the head of the Papua branch. He told reporters that the attack happened while villagers were sleeping. Ronald Rischard urged the country's rights agency to conduct an independent investigation into the incident. He said that the cycle of violence has continued, and a child’s ear had been razed to ashes by a bullet. However, he did not know who had fired the shots. Since 1969, when the area was controversially handed over to Indonesian rule following Dutch rule by a vote overseen and supervised by the United Nations, rebels have waged a low-level independence campaign in the richly resourced Papua bordering Papua New Guinea. Rebels have held foreigners as hostages, including 26 wildlife researchers from 1996 and a New Zealander pilot who was freed last year after 19 months of imprisonment. The rebels claimed to have killed 17 people in the last month. They said that they were disguised gold miners. The statement stated that the Indonesian military had deployed personnel to the area of the operation on Wednesday in order to anticipate the movements of the remaining rebels. (Reporting and editing by Martin Petty, Ed Osmond and Ananda Teresia)
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Brazil's Marfrig completes the takeover of BRF by merging as MBRF
Brazilian beef processor Marfrig revealed on Thursday that it plans to complete the takeover of BRF, a poultry and pork processor. It also hinted at plans to list shares in the combined entity eventually in the United States. Marfrig has been pursuing a strategy of gaining scale in order to compete with Brazilian meatpacking company JBS. JBS is preparing to list its shares on the New York Stock Exchange. All three companies are now listed on the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange. Marfrig, BRF and other parties disclosed that the proposed deal involved a share exchange whereby BRF holders would receive 0.8521 Marfrig shares for every BRF share. This move will also involve the creation of a new company called MBRF. It will control National Beef owned by Marfrig, a meat processing firm based in America that will be integrated into the corporate structure. In a joint announcement, the companies stated that they expect 805 million reais (142 million dollars) in annual synergies as a result of the tie-up. 400 to 500 millions reais are expected to be captured during the first year. The proposal will be voted on by shareholders on June 18. BRF executives told analysts that the move was intended to build on the strengths of both companies, giving them greater power to compete on a global scale with giant food producers. Fabio Mariano, CFO of MBRF, said that MBRF may move its fiscal domicile to New York and list shares there at some point. He said that the merging companies should first focus on extracting synergies from the new structure. Marfrig purchased almost a quarter BRF shares in May 2021. It became the company's largest shareholder at that time, but stated it would be a passive investor. Marfrig gradually increased its stake to 50.49%. In the past 12 months, these companies generated combined net sales of 26.75 billion reais (152 billion reais), with 38% from food products that were processed and had a higher price. Both companies' shares rose on Thursday in Sao Paulo, beating out peers from the sector including Minerva & JBS. BRF shares rose 7% at one stage during the session. Marfrig rose by 4.34%, to 20.66 Reais. $1 = 5.6817 Reais (Reporting and editing by Gabriel Araujo, Diane Craft).
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Oil prices to rise by 1% this week on U.S. China trade agreement
The oil prices rose on Friday after a steep drop the previous day. This is expected to lead to a weekly increase of more than 1 percent as the optimism surrounding the U.S. China trade relations outweighed the prospect of Iranian supplies returning to the market. Brent crude futures were up 17 cents or 0.26% to $64.70 per barrel at 0007 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures rose 18 cents or 0.29% to $61.80. Prices fell more than 2% the previous session, after President Donald Trump claimed that the U.S. and Iran were "close" to a nuclear agreement. He also said that Tehran "sort of" accepted its terms. Sources familiar with the negotiations said that there are still some gaps to be filled. The oil prices spiked in the first part of the week, after the U.S., and China, two of the largest oil-consuming economies and consumers, agreed on a 90 day pause to their trade war, during which time both sides would lower their trade duties. Sino-U.S. trade tariffs were hefty, and sparked fears that global growth would be severely affected. The oil market is still subject to the dynamics of supply, which includes the possibility that Iranian supplies could return to the market after any agreement between Washington and Tehran. ANZ Bank said in a client note that "the easing geopolitical risk weighed on the sentiment already burdened with fears of rising supplies from fellow OPEC member" The International Energy Agency announced on Thursday that it expects the global supply to increase by 1.6 millions barrels per day in 2018, up 380,000 bpd compared to its previous forecast. Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ will be unwinding their output cuts.
Analysis-Russian expulsion of Ukrainian troops from Kursk removes obstacle to peace
The ejection by Russia of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk area ends the largest incursion on Russian soil since World War Two. It also removes an obstacle to a peaceful settlement that Moscow had been reluctant to reach with so many hostile troops on its territory. Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, declared a unilateral ceasefire of three days the day after Moscow announced that the Kursk operation was complete. This was to commemorate the 80th anniversary since the Soviet Union's victory in World War Two.
On condition of anonymity, two Russian sources said that the Kremlin would not accept a settlement to the war as long as Ukrainian troops are in Kursk.
Ukraine launched its most daring attack on August 6, just over two years after Russia invaded the Kursk area in 2022. Supported by drones and heavy Western weapons, the country rammed through the Russian border.
The attack was costly to Kyiv, as the Ukrainian forces claimed almost 1,400 square kilometers of Kursk at its peak.
According to Ukrainian open-source maps, Russia now controls an area of Ukraine that is roughly equal in size to the U.S. State of Pennsylvania.
Analysts say that the diverting of Kyiv forces to Kursk helped Russia accelerate its advance in eastern Ukraine.
"Essentially, Ukraine exchanged territory that it valued the most, its own, for territory it did not value and could not hold forever," said Christopher McCallion. McCallion is a fellow with Defense Priorities in Washington DC, an organization advocating a strong U.S. army with a conservative foreign policy. Ukraine, who has been retreating from Kursk for weeks, but claims to still have some active troops there, believes that the incursion distracted Russia, forcing it to deploy troops elsewhere. Kyiv said that its objectives included securing its border with Sumy and gaining territory for future peace negotiations.
Washington's shuttle diplomacy has now pushed these talks forward, but without Ukraine's bargaining chip. There are still major differences that could undermine the peace efforts of President Donald Trump. One source said that if the talks fail, Russian forces would continue to fight.
Requests for comment from the Kremlin or Ukraine's general staff were not immediately responded to.
Local officials claim that Russia has intensified its attacks on Sumy in recent weeks. This is across the border from Kursk. A Russian missile attack in the capital of Sumy killed 35 people on April 14. Russia claimed it targeted a group of Ukrainian soldiers. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the president of Ukraine, acknowledged that Kyiv forces are now active in Russia’s Belgorod Region, also near the border. He described it as a move to protect Ukrainian towns. Russia has a few slivers across the border in Kharkiv from Belgorod. According to U.S. proposals for a peace agreement, Ukraine would regain control of all of its territory at Kharkiv while Russia would keep control of just over a fifth.
THE BATTLE FOR KURSK
The Kremlin was embarrassed by the invasion of Kursk in 1943. This was the scene of the biggest tank battle ever fought in history, between Soviet and Nazi forces.
The announcement of victory against Ukrainian troops coincides with the 80th anniversary celebration of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazism on May 9. This gives Putin a victory to show off in front of dignitaries such as Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva from Brazil and China's Xi Jinping.
According to Russian sources, despite warnings of an imminent attack, the Russian forces were caught off guard by the Ukrainian assault.
Russian officials spoke at the time of chaos, as Russians fled to the east and the Russian border guards and army attempted to combat small, highly mobile Ukrainian unit speeding along country roads in Kursk with Western weapons and vehicles.
A minimum of 120,000 people had to be evacuated. Putin, visibly incensed, was seen publicly scolding Alexei Smirnov who, at the time, was the governor of Kursk. He was arrested on April charges of embezzling money intended for border defense. He denies these charges. The size of the Russian military operations was impressive when I visited Kursk, Russia, in March: tanks, missiles systems, and thousands of soldiers on the move, while civilians warned of the danger of drones and missile attacks amid the air attack sirens. North Korean troops and shells helped Russia to fight back against the Russians in Kursk. Putin expressed his gratitude personally to Kim Jong Un, the leader of North Korea.
According to the Russian defence ministry, Ukrainian forces lost over 412 tanks and several thousand military vehicles in Kursk. Ukraine says that Russia has suffered over 62,000 deaths and injuries during the operation. Both sides have not released their own numbers of casualties. Both sides dispute these numbers, which are not independent.
OFFENSIVE
In August, as Ukrainian forces raced to expand their territory at Kursk in Russia, the country sent units into the area to slow down the advance and stop Ukrainian forces from reaching Kurchatov Nuclear Power Station which provides a large portion of the electricity for southern Russia.
In less than a month the front was stabilised, and Russia could counterattack.
David J. Betz is a professor at King's College London who specializes in war and the modern world. He said that there were likely some Russian generals who were embarrassed by the Ukrainian incursion.
He said that Russia has a long history of successfully defending its borders. However, unlike other countries who are able defend themselves using geography, Russia is forced to use human bodies and distance to do so.
Russian and Western sources reported that Russian forces gradually began to grind down the Ukrainian defences while Moscow deployed thousands of fibre-optic, or "fibre-optic" drones. These drones are harder to jam than any other drones.
According to Ukrainian maps, within three months Russia had reduced the area controlled by Ukraine by more than half. By February 6, this area had been reduced to just 428 square kilometers. Putin, who had been in military fatigues during the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the third anniversary, made a surprise trip to Kursk to order the top brass to continue their advance. He also suggested that Russia create a buffer along the Ukrainian border.
In March, Ukraine lost over 300 square kilometers of territory that it held in Kursk.
Valery Gerasimov is the top Russian general in charge of the war. He told Putin that Russia cleared Kursk after the last Ukrainian troops were forced out of Gornal, a village near the border.
He claimed that Ukraine had deployed 60,000 troops to Kursk during the height of the operations, which undermined its other forces. He also praised the North Korean troops who fought "shoulder-to-shoulder" with their Russian counterparts.
Gerasimov said that Russian forces "continued" to carve a buffer zone in accordance with Putin's orders, and had taken over 90 square kilometers of Ukraine's Sumy Region.
Ukrainian officials had previously claimed that Russian assault groups were in Sumy. (Reporting and editing by Guy Faulconbridge)
(source: Reuters)