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GRAINS-Wheat Futures Posts Modest Gain on US Plains Dryness and Global Supply Weighs
Chicago wheat futures edged up on Tuesday, as a combination of dry conditions in the U.S. Plains region and increasing tensions in Black Sea export regions supported prices that were under pressure due to global?supplies. By 0415 GMT, the most active?wheat contracts on CBOT (Wv1) had risen 0.05% to $5.12-3/4 per bushel. Corn (Cv1) rose 0.17% to $5.12-3/4 a Bushel and soybeans (Sv1) gained 0.28 % to $10.65. Wheat, soybeans, and corn all extended gains in the second session of trading following traders' return from their?year-end holiday and assessment of crop weather. Last Friday, soybeans, wheat and corn reached their lowest levels since late October. Corn also hit a 2-week low. Josh Lawrence, IKON Commodities' advisory consultant, said that "Pockets" of dryness were present in the U.S. The?ample supply from major exporting nations limited the gains." The Black Sea export corridor was also closely monitored by traders. Ukraine officials reported that on Monday, Russia attacked a U.S. agricultural company Bunge's enterprise in Dnipro and launched five missile attacks against Kharkiv. The strikes damaged energy infrastructure. UGA, the traders' union, reported on Monday that exports in Ukraine of key agricultural products fell from 3.58 to 3.28 millions metric tons between November and December, due mainly to lower shipments of soybeans and wheat. The weekly U.S. demand for exports was mixed. U.S. Department of Agriculture reported net?U.S. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said net?U.S. On January 12, the agency will release key crop data, including U.S. grain stocks and soybean stock as of December 1. Traders reported that commodity funds were net purchasers of CBOT grain and soy products Monday. Reporting by Ella Cao and Daphne Zhang; Editing and proofreading by Rashmia Aich and Harikrishnan Nair
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HDFC Bank and Reliance weigh in on Indian share prices as they fall from record highs
Indian shares dropped on Tuesday. The 'heavyweight stocks HDFC Bank, and Reliance Industries were the main culprits. This was a day after the?Nifty 50 index retreated to record highs. The Sensex fell 0.21% as of 9:54 a.m. IST, and the?Nifty50 dropped 0.1% to 26231.40. Seven out of 16 major sectors fell. The small- and mid-caps both rose by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries and other major stocks in the benchmark indexes fell 1.6% and 3.3% respectively. Reliance denied a Bloomberg report that three vessels carrying Russian crude oil were heading to its Jamnagar refining facility. Reliance's move is a response to renewed concerns about trade after U.S. president Donald Trump warned on Monday that tariffs could be raised against India if New Delhi did not reduce its purchases of Russian crude oil. The Nifty 50 reached an intraday high on Monday, before falling 0.3% to close lower. Ajit Mishra is senior vice president and head of research at Religare Broking. He said that sentiment was subdued because of geopolitical tensions as well as concerns about potential trade frictions. These factors continued to influence risk appetite. Trent, a stock that is traded individually, fell 7.5%. Posting Multiple brokerages have flagged a slowing of growth and a decline in demand for their December quarter business update. Tata Motors? Passenger Vehicles After its unit JLR saw its third quarter volumes drop 43.3% as a result of production stops due to an?a cybersecurity incident. Private lenders Kotak Mahindra Bank (up 0.5%) and Axis Bank (up 1%), respectively, also rose after positive business updates for the December quarter. Emmvee Photovoltaic Power rose 5.1% after Jefferies initiated its coverage, recommending a "buy". Jefferies projected a 70% increase in the next twelve months.
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Gold reaches a new high in a week on Fed rate-cut betting and Venezuela turmoil
Gold prices rose again?on Tuesday, reaching a new high. The dovish remarks?of?Federal Reserve officials increased interest rate-cutting bets while Venezuelan tensions also boosted safe-haven demand. As of 0328 GMT spot gold was up 0.4% to $4,465.32 an ounce after rising by nearly 3% the previous session. Bullion reached a record-high of $4,549.71 in December and recorded its best performance ever since 1979 with a 64% jump. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery edged up 0.3% to $4,465.70 per ounce on Tuesday. "The comments by Fed officials certainly didn't harm but it doesn’t seem like the calculus has changed that much." "We have a busy week ahead with the release of Friday's jobs report," said Ilya Spivak. On Monday, Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, said that inflation was "slowly" easing. However, there was the risk that the unemployment rate would "pop", increasing the likelihood of rate cuts. Investors expect two rate cuts at least this year. They will be looking for additional monetary policy clues in the Friday nonfarm payrolls report. On Monday, the former Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro denied narcotics-related charges. The arrest of Maduro by Donald Trump rattled leaders around the world and caused officials in Caracas to scramble to regroup. Spivak stated that "the capture of Maduro demonstrated this rupture between the U.S., China, and (the ongoing trend) de-globalisation." In a low interest rate environment, and in times of geopolitical uncertainty or economic instability, non-yielding investments tend to perform well. Silver spot?gained 2.9 % to $78.72 an ounce after reaching an all-time high of $83.62 per ounce on December 29. Silver's annual gains in 2025 were 147% higher than gold. This was the best year ever for silver. After reaching an all-time record of $2,478.50 on Monday, spot platinum rose 2.5% to $2,327.17. It rose by more than 5% in the morning session, reaching a new high. Palladium was 0.8% higher, at $1.721.74 an ounce. (Reporting and editing by Sherry Phillips, Subhranshu Sahu, and Ishaan arora)
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HDFC Bank and Reliance drag down Indian share prices
India's equity benchmarks started Tuesday slightly lower, led by HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries, as investors booked profits near record highs. However, optimism about an earnings improvement before the results season persisted. The Nifty 50 dropped 0.23% to 26189.7. As of 9:15 a.m. IST, the Sensex was trading 0.13% lower at 85,331.14. The gains in nine of the 16 major sectors were marginal. The small-caps, mid-caps, and broader indexes all rose by 0.4% and 0.1% respectively. HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries - the two heaviest stocks on the benchmark index - each lost 2%. The Nifty 50 reached a record high intraday on Monday before falling 0.3%, due to losses in the information technology sector. The trade worries increased on Monday, after U.S. President Donald Trump warned that tariffs could be raised on India if New Delhi didn't meet Washington’s demand to reduce?purchases? of Russian oil. Private lenders Kotak Mahindra Bank (private lender) and Axis Bank (private lender) each rose by about 1% after positive business updates for the quarter ending December.
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Four people are still missing after flash floods hit Indonesia's North Sulawesi
An official confirmed on Tuesday that at least 14 people had been killed by flash floods which swept through North Sulawesi in Indonesia. The search for those who are missing continues. Nuriadin Gumeleng is a local rescue agency spokesperson. He said that heavy rains early Monday morning caused 'flash floods' on the island Siau. Gumeleng said that 16 rescuers were deployed on Tuesday to find four people still missing. He added that 18 people have been injured. He said, "We will continue to collect data from the local residents in the event that there are still more missing persons." Gumeleneg reported that the main roads in affected areas are still covered with rocks, debris, and thick mud as of Tuesday. Abdul Muhari, spokesperson for the disaster mitigation agency of the country, said that at least 444 people were evacuated from their homes to local schools and churches following?the flash flooding. He said that excavators were used by authorities to clear the roads blocked by debris and mud. Yulius Selvanus, the governor of North?Sulawesi, said that hundreds of homes and government buildings were also destroyed by the floods. Indonesia's weather agency predicted that the flash floods occurred during the peak of wet season on the island of Sulawesi. Weather agency said that the islands of Java and Sulawesi will experience their peak rainy season in January and February of this year. This means more flood risks, according to the weather agency. In Sumatra, Borneo and other parts of Indonesia the rain peaked in November and December last year. In November last year, floods and landslides caused by cyclones killed over 1,000 people in Sumatra. Hundreds are still missing. Green groups claim that deforestation caused by mining and logging increased the impact of floods. (Reporting and editing by Ananda Terresia)
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Reliance India says it does not expect any Russian crude deliveries for January
Reliance Industries announced on Tuesday that it does not expect any Russian crude oil deliveries for January, and has not received any such cargoes over the last?three? weeks. The private refiner that used to be India’s largest buyer for Russian oil published a statement in X denying a Bloomberg article based on Kpler information stating that three vessels laden up with Russian oil 'are headed to its Jamnagar refining facility. India became the largest buyer of discounted Russian crude seaborne after the Ukraine War?in 2022. These purchases have sparked a backlash by Western nations who have imposed sanctions on Russia's energy sector, claiming that oil revenue helps 'fund Moscow's military effort. India's oil purchases from Russia will continue to decline in January as?Reliance stops purchasing Russian crude. China is the only major market for Moscow. Last week, it was reported that Indian authorities had asked refiners to provide weekly reports on their purchases of oil from the United States and Russia. Sources said that they expected Russian crude imports to drop below 1 million barrels a day as New Delhi seeks to reach a deal with Washington. According to Kpler and sources, the U.S. and European Union have already tightened sanctions, which has slowed Russian oil exports to India. In December, they fell to their lowest level in three years, at 1.2 million barrels per day. This is a 40% decrease from the June peak of 2 million bpd. (Reporting and writing by Nidhi verma, Florence Tan; editing by Sonali Paul & Jacqueline Wong).
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Asian stocks continue record rally as oil and dollar drift
The Asian stock market continued its record-breaking climb on Tuesday. They took the baton from Wall Street, where oil companies and financials gained helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average reach a new high. The U.S. oil industry got a boost after the military raid that captured Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro over the weekend. Crude oil fell back $1 per barrel after a rise overnight, as traders assessed possible impacts on Venezuela's crude oil flows. Venezuela is home to the largest oil reserves in the world. The events have had a limited impact on the risk sentiment. Equities are driven by momentum, while currencies are based on macroeconomic data. The U.S. Dollar was stable ahead of the monthly jobs data on Friday. The dollar surged in the previous session to its highest level in four weeks, only to lose all gains at the close after manufacturing activity fell to a record low. Copper set a new record, and precious metals were not far behind. The Topix index, which is MSCI's broadest measure of Asia-Pacific stocks, jumped 1.3% at a record high, mainly due to gains in Japanese shares. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong rose 0.7%. Blue chips on the mainland of China gained 0.3%, and Australia's benchmark stock index rose 1%. South Korea's KOSPI fell 0.4% from its record highs reached on Monday. U.S. S&P futures rose 0.1% after a 0.6% increase in the cash index overnight. Chevron jumped more than 5%. U.S. president Donald Trump has said that he will put Venezuela under "temporary American Control" and could order another attack if Venezuela does not cooperate with U.S. attempts to open its oil industry and end drug trafficking. He also threatened to take military action in Colombia, Mexico and other countries. Trump will meet with executives of U.S. oil firms later this week to talk about boosting Venezuelan production. This was reported by a source familiar with the issue. Investors are convinced that global markets and the economy will not be affected by Venezuela's relatively small economy. However, Yusuke Matsuo of Mizuho Securities wrote in a note to clients that it would take years for the country to increase its oil production. Gold, which is considered a safe haven asset, will also perform well. Brent crude futures fell 19 cents in the latest session to $61,57 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas intermediate crude dropped 22 cents at $58.10. After a 2.7% rise on Monday, gold was at $4,449 per ounce. It is less than $100 away from its previous record high of $4,548.92. Prices of copper in London and Shanghai reached record levels as fears about supply grew following a strike at a Chilean mining facility. U.S. Comex Copper reached a record high on Monday. The dollar was unchanged at 156.47 Japanese yen, and the euro also remained stable at $1.1724. The pound bought $1.3539. The dollar index, which measures the currency in relation to a basket that includes these three rivals as well as three other major counterparts, fell 0.1%, bringing it down to 98.291. The dollar index reached a high of 98.861 for the first day since December 10 The closely followed U.S. employment report due Friday will play a key role in determining the expectations regarding the future of monetary policy. LSEG futures calculations showed that traders expect two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2018. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing; Kevin Buckland)
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Oil prices fall on the prospect of increased Venezuelan production and ample supply outlook
Oil prices dropped on Tuesday, as traders assessed the possibility of increased Venezuelan crude production following the capture by the U.S. of President Nicolas Maduro. This added to expectations that global supplies would be ample this year due to weak demand. Brent crude futures fell by 0.2% at $61.62 per barrel as of 0103 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude crude dropped 0.3% to $58.15 per barrel. Ed Meir, Marex analyst, said: "I believe that if even a small part of the Trump playbook comes true, Venezuelan crude production should increase... If it increases, this will put more pressure on a market already oversupplied." In December, market participants surveyed by?expected oil prices to be pressured in 2026 because of growing supply and weakening demand. The price pressure is likely to increase now that the U.S. captured Venezuela's leader. This increases the chances of an end to the U.S. oil embargo and more production. A person with knowledge of the matter said that Donald Trump's administration plans to meet U.S. Oil executives this week in order to discuss increasing Venezuelan oil production. The oil benchmarks were more than 1% up in the previous session as investors digested the news of Maduro being captured and U.S. remarks about taking over Venezuela. Maduro has denied all charges of narcotics. Venezuela is the founding member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. It has the largest oil reserves in the world, at about 303 billion barrels. The oil sector of Venezuela has been declining for a long time due to U.S. sanction and under-investment. Last year, its average production was 1.1 million barrels of oil per day. Oil analysts say that Venezuelan production could rise by up to half a million barrels per day in the next two year if political stability is achieved and U.S. investments are made. Citi stated in a note to clients that "longer term, U.S. Administration's?stated wish to increase Venezuelan oil supplies is likely to give?a?net bearish impulse to market," "We continue to believe that OPEC+ led by Saudi Arabia will likely cut production to protect $55-60/bbl Brent in the medium term, should surprise the upside." OPEC+ and its allies agreed at a brief meeting held on Sunday to maintain current output levels. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing in Bengaluru, Anushree Mukerjee from Bengaluru)
Market analysts react to Trump’s Venezuela gamble
The global investors face a new surge in geopolitical risks after the U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. However, initial market reactions have been relatively calm with oil volatile and safe haven flows lifting gold.
On Monday, stocks rose on the back of tech and defence sectors. The dollar also advanced.
Here are some comments from market analysts.
VISHNU VARATHAN HEAD OF MACRO RESEARCH ASIA EXJAPAN MIZUHO SINGAPORE
"We're reminded that?geopolitical risk is much greater than a number cast on imported goods.
"The sanctions against Venezuela and its exceptional dependence on oil exports... means that the Venezuelan regime change impact through trade channels and investment channels is quite naturally limited and ringfenced. This is why there hasn't been a big selloff.
The question and case in mind are: Is the stability of LatAm at risk? The effects could be far greater.
"Trump has clearly warned Colombia and Mexico, but he also mentioned Cuba. Part of the population is happy that Maduro has left. I think it is less clear that the U.S. would be viewed negatively if Venezuela was not involved, especially without the significant benefits from the oil "endowments", even if other minerals were used.
KYLE RODDA, SENIOR MARKET ANALYST, CAPITAL.COM, MELBOURNE
The short-term implications are relatively limited and confined to the energy sector. The market is definitely responding?in precious-metals, and this is the government's increasing their exposure to alternatives that are not dollar-based (and non fiat). Other than that, I believe the markets are more interested in what lies ahead.
TAI HUI, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST FOR ASIA-PACIFIC, J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT, HONG KONG
The lack of response is due to two factors. Venezuela's oil output in relation to the global production is very small (around 1%) It's not likely to be able increase production or add to the global supply anytime soon due to years of underinvestment.
"It is still unclear what will become of the new regime, as President Trump has announced that the U.S. will be 'running Venezuela' in the short-term. The energy market would have the most impact on global markets. There will be geopolitical repercussions, but I don't think the financial markets can accurately price such risks."
VASU MENON - MANAGING DIRECTOR FOR INVESTMENT STRATEGY, OCBC SINGAPORE
While President Trump pledged U.S. support for the industry to revitalise the oil production in Venezuela, restoring operations would require "significant time" and substantial capital investment. Oil prices could rise modestly in the short-term due to supply disruptions and ongoing political turmoil.
"However the impact may be limited given that Venezuela is currently not a major producer of oil. OPEC's production decisions could?also stabilize prices. The Trump administration's appetite for regime change remains to be seen.
Strategic calculations are being made against a backdrop of an upcoming midterm election year. The outcome is unpredictable. This uncertainty may keep oil prices high. The geopolitical situation may be more volatile, which could boost haven assets such as precious metals.
Overall, the markets are less susceptible to geopolitical risk today. They have survived an eventful year in 2025. As last year showed, there could be a skittish response to short-term shocks, but the effect might be temporary. Rae Wee, Gregor Stuart Hunter and Shri Navaratnam in Singapore reported the story; Ankur Banerjee compiled it; Shri Navaratnam edited it.
(source: Reuters)