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MORNING BID AMERICAS - Forever war?
The energy and bond markets have been on edge again after U.S. president Donald Trump stated that the Iran War would not end before the midterm elections in November. This came as the Gulf was hit with the most intense attacks in the conflict to date. Markets are awaiting the likely rise in interest rates by the European Central Bank and the first U.S. On Thursday, we'll have an update on inflation as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appears to have failed with his bond-buyback operation. On Wednesday, crude oil reached its highest price since late May, above $100 per barrel, and the 10-year Treasury yields were at their highest for three years. They are now rapidly approaching the 5% mark. This came after the largest wave of attacks against oil tankers since the Iran War began six months ago. In the meantime, some investors were disappointed by a $6 billion buyback on Thursday of bonds with longer maturities. They had hoped for more. In a primetime address on Wednesday, President Trump said that the end of the "war" and the relief in fuel prices would come only after the midterms. This comment saw the six-month Brent crude oil futures move further towards $90/bbl. The Wall Street Journal reported that top White House advisors, including Vice-President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and others, privately warned Trump about the possibility of the conflict extending through his remaining presidency. Trump also promised in his speech that every American would receive $5,000 if Republicans won the midterm elections. This would cost the Treasury over $1 trillion. It would likely be forced to borrow this amount. The U.S. producer prices inflation?data will be released on Thursday, after the ECB's policy decision. It is expected to be a quarter point increase to 2.5%. This comes just as European Natural Gas Futures have reached their highest level in three years. Meanwhile, Anthropic employees' headline-grabbing predictions about the end of humanity sparked new fears in the AI industry about software companies being damaged by new models. There were also more reports about rogue AI agents. The markets won't have the ability to price this, but may be forced to take into account the regulation of AI development that these types of apocalyptic predictions call for. Chart of the Day On Thursday, the ECB will likely increase its key policy interest rate to 2.5% by a quarter of a percentage point. This is because energy prices spiked due to Iran. The financial markets expect two more rate increases in the next year. Watch today's events * U.S. PPI for August (8:30 am EDT), weekly claims of unemployment (8:30 am EDT), existing home sales in August (10am EDT). * European Central Bank announcement of interest rates (8:15 am EDT) * U.S. 30 year bond auction (1 pm EDT) Check out my latest column about the signs that the Trump administration may be moving toward a weaker currency - and what obstacles such a plan might face. Listen to the most recent episode of Morning?Bid's daily podcast. Subscribe to the Morning?Bid daily podcast and hear journalists discuss the biggest news in finance and markets. Want to receive the "Morning bid" in your email every morning? Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. You can find ROI's website and follow us on LinkedIn or X. The opinions expressed are solely those of the authors. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is committed to the Trust Principles and a commitment to independence, integrity and neutrality.
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Health ministry: Indonesian wildfires double respiratory infections in a single week
Data from the Indonesian health ministry on Thursday showed that respiratory infections due to hazardous wildfire smoke pollution have doubled in just over a fortnight. The Indonesian archipelago has seen fires rage across vast tracts of forest and peatland, which have caused hazardous emissions to "surge", notably in the provinces most affected on the islands Sumatra, and Borneo. The wildfire season this year is the worst in 11 years, as "super El Nino" weather conditions cause temperatures to rise and droughts to be punishing. The country's fire emissions now make up a third the total global. According to statistics presented at a press briefing by the spokesperson for the health ministry, Widyawati, the number of people with respiratory diseases caused by wildfires rose to 113 336 on September 9. This is up from 50 891 on September 1. Widyawati (also known as Widya) said that more than 12.5 million people were exposed to the haze from fires in seven provinces. She said that nearly a million masks, hundreds of oxygen concentrators, and thousands medical workers were sent to the affected areas to help residents deal with the pollution. The process of adding medical personnel and supplying various supplies continues. We will continue monitoring which areas need more healthcare workers, and dispatch them to those areas. Singapore and Malaysia also have unhealthy air quality due to transboundary haze. Berton Panjaitan is the spokesperson for Indonesia's disaster management agency. He said that Japan sent three CH-47 Chinook helicopters to help Indonesia fight fires. They began trial flights Thursday. He said that the helicopters will help Indonesian forces in their water bombing operation, which is set to begin either Friday or Saturday on Borneo's West Kalimantan. Malaysia's environment ministry wrote to its Indonesian counterpart that the country, which shares a border with Indonesia in Borneo on land, had also "offered" to help Indonesia with aerial firefighting. Panjaitan stated that Jakarta is conducting inter-agency consultation to discuss Malaysia's proposal. According to government data, between 'January and July of this year', fires destroyed around 202,000 hectares or almost 500,000 acres?of land. According to YKAN, environmental group, another 600,000. hectares of land were destroyed by fire in august.
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UN climate chief: EU's "hellish summer" is adding inflation pressures
Simon Stiell, the UN's climate secretary, said on Thursday that the heatwaves in Europe this summer could lead to a fuel crisis during the winter. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) of the European Union, August was the second-hottest month in history. The EU's "summer of hellish warmth" is a double blow to households, businesses, and governments. Stiell told a European Parliament Committee in Brussels that Europe's dependence on volatile fossil fuel imports is a major economic Achilles heel. This year, households and businesses were hit by higher bills. Another European winter fuel crisis is now looming due to the reliance on fossil fuels.
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Sources say that the Russian oil refinery in Ryazan has ceased operations following a drone attack on Sept. 6,
Two industry sources confirmed to? Two industry sources told? on Thursday. Ukraine continues to attack Russian energy infrastructure in an effort to?undermine the country's economy as?the conflict has been raging for more than four-and-a-half years. Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, has stated that these attacks are meant to create discord in Russia. Sources said that after the attack, the main unit of the refinery, CDU-6 as well as another primary unit CDU-4 were stopped. CDU-6 is capable of processing 8 million metric tonnes of oil annually, or 160,000 barrels a day. This accounts for almost half of the plant’s capacity. CDU-4 is capable of processing?4 millions tons of oil per year. Since mid-May, CDU-3 (another primary unit) has been undergoing maintenance. Sources said that the repair of damaged units could take several weeks. Rosneft has not responded to a comment request about the attack at the plant located 200 km (124 miles), southeast of Moscow. On May 15,?drones also attacked the Ryazan refinery that supplies fuel to Moscow. Sources said that the repairs?had been ongoing since mid-July. Sources said that it was also struck by drones on July 29, and operations have been halted for two to three weeks. According to industry sources the refinery will process 13.1 million tonnes of crude oil in 2024. This is about 4.9% of Russia's overall refining capacity. In that year, it produced 2.2 millions tons of gasoline and diesel fuel as well as 4.3 million tonnes of fuel oil.
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Pakistan: No military response was discussed in the Mecca Pact regarding Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia
Pakistani officials said on Thursday that they had not discussed a possible military response from Islamabad in accordance with the?Mecca Accords as a result of the Houthis attacks 'on Saudi Arabia. They added, however, that Pakistan will act when "the time comes". "There's no such thing being discussed right now." "There is no such thing under discussion right now... According to the joint defence agreement, signed last month, an armed attack against any?of three?countries would be considered an attack against all of them. This question was raised after Iran-backed Houthis attacked Saudi cities and energy infrastructure in the past week. By Thursday, these attacks had turned into a second Middle East theatre of war. Islamabad warned Iran that its Yemeni Houthi ally's were stepping up their attacks against Saudi Arabia. Pakistan has condemned the attacks, but it did not provide any details about how the country might respond under the terms of the defence pact. Khan said there was no plan to expand the Mecca Alliance, as Washington struggles to contain the regional turmoil that has disrupted the global energy supply.
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Trump threatens to attack Pickaxe Mountain after he says the Iran war will end after US midterm elections
Donald Trump has said that he expects the war against Iran to end following the midterm elections in November. He also threatened to 'again' attack a nuclear site linked to the Islamic Republic after both sides launched their 'biggest wave of strikes on shipping since the beginning of the six-month war. Saudi civil defense authorities issued emergency alerts on Thursday in Khamis Mushait, a city in southwest Yemen, for the fourth consecutive day, after clashes with the Houthis, who are backed by Iran. Brent crude prices were above $100 per barrel, as both supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz (the Strait of Hormuz) and the Red Sea remained severely disrupted. Iran claimed that it had launched 10 attacks on Wednesday near the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S. destroyed five Iranian oil tanks. This was the latest of many tit-fortat strikes which have indicated that there is little chance of a rapid end to the hostilities. Trump's popularity has reached record lows due to the?war, and subsequent rise in fuel prices. The president claimed that Tehran is trying to influence November's U.S. midterm election, which will determine whether the Republican Party maintains control of Congress. "I believe war will end immediately after the elections because they cannot hold out anymore." "They're desperate to affect the election," Trump told reporters on Wednesday. Trump had previously set a deadline for the end of the war. The Wall Street Journal reported that later, top White House advisors, including Vice President JD?Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio had privately warned Trump that this conflict could last through his remaining presidency, which ends January 2029. Trump said that the U.S. could also strike Iran's Pickaxe Mountain. This heavily fortified area contains two deep-buried tunnel systems near Iran's damaged Natanz facility. "We've noticed that Pickaxe is a bit busy." Trump warned Iran to not be cute, because they will get hit very hard. He said this in a speech to the Republican midterm convention. Trump has been threatening to strike Pickaxe Mountain at least since mid-July. In February, the U.S. and Israel conducted military strikes against Iran partly because of concerns about Tehran's nuclear program. Iran claims its nuclear activities are peaceful. Washington cited in recent weeks?increasing successes guiding tankers across the Strait of Hormuz which carried around a fifth of the oil supply before the war. A resumption in fighting earlier this month appears to have set any gradual reopening back. On Thursday, preliminary data from ship tracking showed that only seven vessels had transited through the strait Wednesday. This is half of the average for the past 10 days. Saudi Arabia's war with the Houthis has escalated over the last few days. This is a second theater of conflict that threatens the global energy supply from the Middle East. The Saudi-led coalition reported on Tuesday that at least 73 people had been wounded in recent Houthi assaults on the world's biggest oil exporter in four southern Saudi towns, including Khamis Mushait. The militant group claimed that it attacked an airbase in the city of Khamis Mushait in the southwest and oil infrastructures in other cities nearby in one 'of the largest attacks on Saudi Arabia after the U.S./Israeli war against Iran in February. The Saudi Civil Defence authorities declared Thursday that the situation is under control following a second emergency alert in Khamis Mushait.
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Sinopec's researcher claims that China could have 80% of its population using electric vehicles by 2030.
A researcher from the state-owned oil company Sinopec stated on Thursday that the penetration rate of electric vehicles in China is expected to rise, but at a slower pace towards the end of the decade. Continued growth in this sector will reduce oil demand from the largest crude oil importer in the world. Fairy Wang, vice president of Sinopec’s Economics and Development Research Institute, said at the APPEC Conference in Singapore that EVs are expected to displace 56?metric tonnes, or approximately 1.2 million barrels a day?of oil demand?in China. She said that "it is equivalent to about 15% of China's total demand for refined oil products." About two-thirds (or about 63%) of the demand for gasoline-powered cars is displaced by diesel vehicles. According to Wang, EV penetration reached 65% in China in July. This is up from 53% in the previous year, and only 5% by 2020. These figures include both plug-in hybrid and battery electric?vehicles. Wang claimed that nearly all public transportation vehicles in China are now electric. She attributed the rapid adoption of EVs to the previous government subsidies as well as the country's?"extensive" charging infrastructure. Wang stated that China has approximately 23 million 'charging stations. Around two thirds are home chargers and the rest are public charging facilities. More consumers are switching to electric vehicles because of the?availability?of charging infrastructure?in both large and small cities.
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Singapore's Aster plans on increasing naphtha cracker usage, executive says
Aster Chemicals & 'Energy, Singapore's energy company, has run its naphtha cracker between?75% and 80% over the last five months. The company plans to increase utilisation rates even further. Andre Khor told the APPEC Conference that Aster will continue to ramp up and start supplying petrochemicals. Aster, a joint venture of Indonesia's ?Chandra Asri and trading major Glencore, operates a 1.1-million-metric-ton-per-year ?steam cracker on ?Singapore's Bukom Island. He added that the naphtha cracker resumed its operations in September's first week after being shut down for maintenance in August. Khor said the company is using naphtha ?from its 237,000-barrel-per-day refinery and studying the use of other feedstocks. Aster declared force majeure in March on some of its contractual deliveries, citing the disruption in raw materials caused by the U.S./Israeli war against Iran. After the Strait of Hormuz was almost completely shut down earlier this year, Glencore's global network allowed it to switch to crude oil from West Africa, Latin America, and Canada to fuel its refinery.
Gold rises on the back of a weaker dollar and US inflation data are on the way
Gold rose on Thursday on a softer dollar, as investors waited for key U.S. data on inflation to get clues about the Federal Reserve's rate hike path.
Gold futures in the U.S. fell 0.3%, to $4448.80 per ounce, and spot gold rose 0.1%, to $4405.09 an ounce, by 0824 GMT.
Gold is benefiting from a slightly weaker dollar, because the yellow metal has a negative correlation with the greenback most of the time. This, combined with the global debt worries, continue to support the demand, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
As the U.S. Dollar index weakened, greenback priced bullion became more affordable for buyers abroad.
The markets are now awaiting the U.S. consumer price inflation data scheduled for Friday, which will be followed by the producer price index data at 1230 GMT.
Rhona O’Connell, Stone X's head of market research, said that if they missed the mark on the upside, there would be a hike in gold prices next week.
A majority of economists polled believe that the Fed will likely hold interest rates at its meeting on September 15-16 and throughout this year.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders still price in a 60% chance that rates will be raised next week.
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he expects the war with Iran will end after the midterm elections in November. He also threatened to attack another site linked with Iran's nuke programme. Brent crude prices were hovering above $100 per barrel.
Treasury Department announced last month that the total U.S. government debt had surpassed $40 trillion for the first. This prompted new warnings of a fiscal emergency.
According to a recent poll, the European Central Bank is likely to increase interest rates for the second time this year on Thursday, as policymakers try to curb an inflationary rise driven by energy.
Silver spot fell by 0.2%, to $67.11 an ounce. Platinum dropped 1.2%, to $1873.84, while palladium was down 0.2%, to $1350.82.
(source: Reuters)