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France has experienced its first "fire cloud". What is it exactly?
France is coping with a fire season unprecedented in its history. It has forced hundreds of thousands to evacuate and dealt a major blow to the country's economy at optimum tourist season. It's not only the?scale?of the fires?that?is a?first. The fires are also acting in a way that has never been seen in France before, such as the first ever reported pyrocumulonimbus or "fire cloud". Here is an overview of this rare phenomenon. What is a 'fire-cloud'? A pyrocumulonimbus cloud is formed when intense heat drives smoke, ash, and water vapour into the air. David Bowman is professor of pyrogeography at the University of Tasmania. He said that you can imagine it like a 'chimney, where there is a fire on the bottom, and the smoke goes straight up the 'chimney to the stratosphere. Jean-Christophe Vincendon is the wildfire coordinator at France's national meteorological service. He said that while meteorologists can identify conditions which favour fire clouds, they are unable to predict when or where one will form. How do they worsen wildfires? Wildfires are made more unpredictable and dangerous by fire-clouds, which can cause them to be less predictable. They do this by creating powerful winds that change the direction of a fire or producing lightning to ignite new flames. They can also cause a "plume collapse" when they run out energy. Bowman said that when the plume collapses it is a "showering of debris and burning debris". What does this mean for Europe? The French authorities announced on Saturday that a pyrocumulonimbus, the first ever recorded in France, had been observed near Bordeaux. Marc Vermeulen is the head of Gironde Fire and Rescue Service. He said that the phenomenon poses a challenge to emergency services due to the unpredictable nature of fires. Bowman says that Western Europe can expect to see this phenomenon more often, as it tends to occur in larger wilderness areas such as Canada or Australia. Bowman stated that "this is a grave milestone." "It's fascinating, but also absolutely terrible and horrible, and we don't want to see more of this." (Reporting and editing by Gabriel Stargardter, Ros Russell and Coralie Lamarque)
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The chip market is on a downward spiral as world stocks fall to a one-month low
Investors dumped chipmakers around the world on Tuesday due to concerns over Chinese competition and the funding of the AI Boom. The possibility of an interest rate increase in the U.S. as soon as this week also dampened the mood. Asian chipmakers were at the 'heart' of the selloff on Tuesday. South Korea's KOSPI plunged more than 10%?to an all-time low. It triggered a circuit breaker on its way down, as it headed for its biggest monthly drop on record. The index's value had tripled over the past 12 months, but has lost more than a quarter of that value since its peak. Shares of memory chipmakers SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics have fallen more than 12% in a market transformed through leverage. Their stratospheric rise has slowed down in a hurry. The MSCI All Country World Price Index fell by 0.6%, to its lowest level since June 29. Investors are concerned about circular funding and stretched valuations in the AI sector. After reports that China was manufacturing its own immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV), lithography machines and Chinese chipmaker CXMT made a strong debut on the stock market, investors began to worry about increased competition within the memory chip sector. "You've seen companies paying for AI and hyperscalers not participating due to concerns over the cost and degree of leverage required. We're now seeing concerns about the profitability of semiconductors, especially in Asia," Dorian Carrell, Schroders' head of multi-assets income, said. These kinds of growth rates (profits) are not sustained. We believe that the market is healthy in questioning these issues. Wall Street was under pressure once again, despite some positive earnings reports from Unilever and Mercedes-Benz that helped European stocks to outperform. Futures that track the Nasdaq 100, a tech-heavy index, fell more than 1% as Nvidia's and Micron Technology’s shares dropped in premarket trade. Nvidia's shares were down 5% by Monday, after the Wall Street Journal reported that the company had been in discussions to provide $250 billion worth of financing guarantees for OpenAI in connection with a massive data center project. The earnings this week of "Magnificent 7" members Microsoft.com, Amazon.com Meta, and Apple, which are also companies that spend the most on AI will be seen by many as a test for the market rally. This is especially true after Alphabet, Tesla, and other tech giants spooked investors with their negative cash flow reports last week. OIL SLIDES; US RATE HIT EYED Brent crude's futures continued their nearly 9% drop on Monday, dropping more than 2%, to $86.63 per barrel. This was due to a lull between hostilities in the U.S.-Iran conflict following Washington's sudden suspension of air attacks on Saturday. Donald Trump stated on Monday that the United States were having "good discussions"?with Iran, and that there was a possibility of a deal. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell by 4 basis points to 4.64%, while rates for shorter-term bonds barely changed. The markets have estimated that there is a 36% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by 25 basis points this Wednesday. "If I were sitting with positions in shares that had done really well, I'd be quite nervous, because if people started to de-gross their expositons, the high-momentum stock tends to be the first place that the de-grossing occurs," Martin Frandsen said, referring the risks that high-growth companies face due to higher interest rates. If money gets more expensive, people will start to sell their leveraged positions. The expectation of a hike sooner or later has kept the 'dollar strong, and the euro at $1.1362. The yen was trading at?163.925 per dollar, barely above its four-decade-low, as markets were on edge over?Japan's intervention in the currency pair, especially if the Bank of Japan left rates on hold and set off another yen decline. Thierry Wizman is a currency and rates analyst at Macquarie Group. He said that if BOJ communication was not hawkish, and USD/JPY headed higher, traders can expect an official response. This could include verbal interventions, rate checks or even direct FX Market intervention. (Reporting and editing by Tom Westbrook and Ankur Banerjee; and Amanda Cooper, Saad sayeed and Anil D’Silva).
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IIR note: Saudi Aramco closes Jizan oil refining after attack
Saudi Aramco closed its Jizan oil refinery, which produces 400,000 barrels per day in Saudi Arabia, on July 27, following an attack on the facility by Yemeni Houthi militants. A note seen by revealed that this was due to an attack on Saturday by Yemen's Houthi terrorists. The market is already constrained by the tight fuel supply in the world, as well as disruptions from the Middle East and Russia's ban on diesel exports. The outage has also had a significant impact on the refinery profit margins, which have reached'record highs' in certain regions. The note stated that the attack damaged the plant’s Integrated Gasification Combination?Cycle and the tank farm, and added that Aramco would tentatively finish repairs and restart the facility?by August 15?. Aramco didn't respond to a comment request. HOUTHI?SPOKESPERSON CLAIMS A STRIKE ON ARAMCO?SITES Yahya Saree, the Houthi's military spokesperson, said that the group had successfully attacked sites owned by Saudi Aramco at Jizan and Yanbu as the Gulf War which has disrupted the global supply chain extended to a new front. A video shared on social networks and confirmed by showed that a huge column of smoke rose from the Jizan refinery following the attack. Kpler data shows that the refinery exported more than 200,000 barrels per day on average in the last three months. Diesel and 'gasoil were the two main export products that accounted for over half of June?exports, which was around?170,000bpd. Naphtha accounted for about 30%. The European diesel profit margins reached a new record of $70.77 per barrel on Tuesday. This was largely due to the attacks on Middle East oil infrastructure and disruptions in regional export routes, including the Strait of Hormuz. The refinery exports most of its naphtha to Asia through the Bab el-Mandeb strait. This is a 'alternative route to the Strait of Hormuz which accounts for over half of its naphtha sales to Asian buyers. Reporting by Mohi Naira in New Delhi, and Ahmad Ghaddar from London. Editing by Louise Heavens & Jan Harvey.
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The Fed's rate decision is in the spotlight as gold falls against a dollar that remains firm
The 'dollar' weighed heavily on gold as investors waited for the Federal Reserve to announce its policy at the conclusion of their two-day meeting in this week. This would give them an idea of the direction that U.S. rates will take. Spot gold dropped 1.2% per ounce to $4.026.21 by 1200 GMT. U.S. gold contracts for August delivery fell 1.3% to $4.025.70. "Gold has held to a very tight range since late June based on the support in $4,000 region, which suggests at some stage there will be a breakout," said Rhona Connell, StoneX's head of market research. Connell said: "Fundamentally the physical markets are still very quiet, while professionals are contorting over the interaction between interest rates, oil and the dollar. All of these are important drivers." The U.S. Dollar steadied at a four-week-high?on Tuesday. This made greenback-priced gold expensive for buyers abroad. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said on Monday that Washington is having "good discussions" with Iran, and that there is a chance that a deal will be reached to end their conflict. However, he warned that if talks fail, strikes would resume. The oil prices fell on Tuesday and hovered around their one-week-low amid hope for a resolution to the U.S. - Iran war. Energy prices are on the rise, which increases expectations that interest rates will be raised by the Federal Reserve. Gold is often seen as a hedge against rising inflation. However, due to higher interest rates, gold's appeal tends to decrease. Trump said on Monday that the U.S. must have the lowest interest rate in the world. According to CME FedWatch, market participants are preparing for tomorrow's Fed decision on interest rates. About 36% of participants anticipate a rate hike of 25 basis points. Also, traders are pricing about an 80% chance that the central bank will raise interest rates at its September meeting. (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore and Leroy Leo) (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore and Leroy Leo)
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HF Sinclair posts highest profit since 2022, plans lubricants separation
HF Sinclair posted its highest quarterly 'profit' since the Russian invasion of Ukraine rocked global oil markets a few years ago. The company also announced that it would'separate" its lubricants & specialties unit into an independent publicly listed company. The U.S. refiner is also beating second-quarter profit expectations. It wants to unlock more value from its specialty products business, which has higher margins, while returning cash to investors. It increased its quarterly dividends by 5%. In premarket trading, shares of the Dallas-based company rose 6.8%. U.S. refining companies have been the most successful in the?war against Iran, as foreign buyers demanded their products and pushed fuel exports into record highs. Franklin Myers, CEO of Franklin Myers, said that the fundamentals which drove the strong results in our second quarter across all business segments will continue into the third quarter. This will provide a positive background as we move through the rest of the year. HF Sinclair’s lubricants & specialties segment reported stronger results in the third quarter, with an adjusted core profit of $207 million, up from $55 millions a year ago, mainly due to higher sales volumes and prices. The company anticipates completing the separation of the unit in 12 to 18 months, and doing so in a tax efficient manner. It said that the separation would allow HF Sinclair's remaining units to concentrate on their core?refining- and marketing-operations. The quarterly adjusted refinery gross profit per barrel rose by 57.3%, to $25.95 from a year ago. The adjusted core profit for its refining division more than doubled from a year earlier to $1.02billion. The company reported a net profit of $892 million, or $4.93 a share. This is its highest quarterly profit since the year 2022, when Russia's invasion in Ukraine disrupted supply chains and drove up commodity prices, which boosted refinery earnings. LSEG data shows that HF Sinclair's quarterly adjusted profit was $5.31, compared to the analysts' average estimate at $4.51.
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Seoul reports white phosphorus leaks from a US airbase in South Korea
The South Korean authorities ordered a brief evacuation of the surrounding area on Tuesday following a 'leakage of white phosphorus in the?U.S. Safety Ministry reported that Osan Air Base is located south of Seoul. Yonhap reported that no casualties had been reported, and the evacuation order for residents was lifted about a half-hour later, after South Korean fire authorities & U.S. Forces?had completed decontamination. The base issued a statement saying that "at 1708 (808?GMT) due to a mishap on the ground and to be extra'safety, Osan AB established a 1000-foot'safety cordon in order to?protect both base and local population." Our emergency response professionals are managing a isolated situation at the installation. This matter is being handled with "the utmost attention and speed." In response to an inquiry to confirm the type of leak, a spokesperson for the base confirmed that there was a munitions accident. (Reporting by Jack Kim, Hyeyoon Cho and Jihoon Lee; Editing by Ed Davies, Andrew Heavens Kevin Liffey and Hugh Lawson) White phosphorus can be used in smoke screens and incendiary weaponry. (Reporting by Jack Kim, Hyeyoon?Cho and Jihoon?Lee; Editing by Ed Davies, Andrew Heavens, Kevin Liffey, and Hugh Lawson.
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India's industrial output in June grew 7.3% year-on-year on a manufacturing boost
Data released on Tuesday showed that 'India's industrial production growth increased to 7.3% in the month of June. This was due to a strong manufacturing sector, boosted by government spending and an expansion in electricity generation. The economists polled expected the industrial output to grow to?5.7% from a revised 5.0%?a month before. In May, government began using producer prices instead of wholesale prices to calculate factory output. KEY NUMBERS * Electricity production increased 10.6% on an annual basis in June, compared to a revised 10.3% increase a month before. The mining activity increased 1% year-on-year from a revised fall of 1.4% in May. In June, the production of consumer durables (including cars and phones) increased 7.7% compared to a revised 8.0% increase in May. * The output of capital?goods rose 14.2% year-on-year compared to a revised 15.5% rise in May. * Industrial output in April-June increased by 5.8% compared to a 3.4% increase a year ago. Reporting by Shubham Bhatra in New Delhi, Editing by Harikrishnan Nair
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MORNING BID AMERICAS - Chip rout the snowballs
What's important in the U.S. and international markets today by Mike Dolan Editor-at-Large of?Finance and Markets Chip stock corrections accelerated again over night amid concerns about circular financing and rising competition. The correction comes before a series of crucial earnings reports by tech companies in Wall Street and Asia - as well as a further drop?in oil price below $90 per barrel amid a tense pause?in the Iran conflict. Below, I'll go into more detail. Check out my most recent column where I discuss the various inflationary drivers central banks are increasingly struggling to "see through". Listen to the Morning Bid podcast where we talk about the causes of this latest chip sale. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear our journalists discuss all of the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks. CHIP ROUT WINTER BALLS The stock markets were on edge Monday and into Tuesday as a result of a number of catalysts. Shares of U.S. Chip giant Nvidia dropped sharply, partly due to reports about a new round of circular funding with OpenAI. A second possible trigger was the IPO of China’s CXMT, which saw a massive first-day increase of almost 470%. This unveiled a brand new chip giant that is ready to absorb investment funds. The European tech giant saw its shares fall sharply after reports surfaced that Chinese firms are developing chipmaking technologies that mimic ASML's dominant offer. U.S. listed shares of South Korea’s SK Hynix dropped below their recent launch price on Monday ahead of tomorrow's quarterly update. Seoul's volatile KOSPI Index plummeted almost 11% on the same day, its largest daily loss in five months. Samsung Electronics is also due to release its earnings this week. Samsung Electronics is a rival chipmaker that is?also down dramatically. The earnings of both companies come amid reports that hyperscalers are spending heavily to build their AI infrastructure. Hyperscalers' earnings are likely to focus on the size of those expenditures and the associated cash burn. Credit markets are keeping a close eye on the situation. Oil prices dropped further on Tuesday, to $86 a barrel. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that negotiations with Iran were going well and a possible deal was in sight. He also reiterated his warning that strikes could resume if talks failed. The Federal Reserve's policy meeting that begins today will undoubtedly include a discussion on the fluctuating energy prices. The futures market still views the Fed meeting as "live", with a 1 in 3 chance that a rate increase will be priced in. Markets now see an increase in rates in September as "almost a certainty". Chart of the Day A new rout is underway in the global chip stock market ahead of this weeks U.S. Megacap Tech Earnings. There's growing unease over the cash burn by the so-called Hyperscalers who are spending hundreds and billions of dollars?building their AI infrastructure. Stock and credit markets are now becoming unnerved by the scale of debt incurred, as borrowings from Big Tech companies this year have almost doubled what they were last year. The debt load will increase as capex increases. Watch today's events * U.S. consumer confidence in July (10 a.m. ET), 7-year notes auction (1 p.m. ET) * ?Fed policy meeting begins * U.S. Corporate Earnings: Boeing, Coca-Cola and Ford. Want to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email? Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. Follow us on LinkedIn, X and ROI. The opinions expressed by the author are their own. These opinions do not represent those of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and freedom from bias. (By Mike Dolan).
US supports Madagascar rare earths project to loosen China’s supply chain grip
The?U.S. The?U.S. State Department said that Washington is supporting the Ampasindava?rare earths 'project in Madagascar in order to?loosen the dominance of competitors in critical minerals supply chain, as part of its?strategies?to loosen rivals' dominance, and this underscores Washington’s push for alternative sources of minerals, which are now largely controlled primarily by China. The project reveals a shift in the African critical minerals sector where Chinese companies had long been dominant in investment in copper cobalt lithium. The U.S., and other Western countries are supporting some of Africa's most important rare earth projects.
Harena Rare Earths of London, the owner and developer behind the $150 million Ampasindava Project, announced last week that the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation had committed up to $4.48million for the pilot plant, laboratory testing, and environmental programmes. This paved the way for future funding.
State Department spokesperson stated that Washington's crucial minerals strategy in Africa aims to increase U.S. investments in mining sectors which have long been dominated by "opaque and predatory investments" from our enemies.
In an email response, the spokesperson stated that "Madagascar is part of this strategy and we see many opportunities to increase U.S. investment and U.S. aligned investment in the critical minerals sector" throughout the country.
China is the world's largest rare earth miner and processor. It has implemented export controls to demonstrate its control over critical supply chains for electric vehicles and wind turbines.
US AND EUROPE PROCESSING OPTIONS
Harena claims that the Ampasindava deposit of ionic sand is rich in neodymium as well as praseodymium. These elements are vital for manufacturing permanent magnets, which are used to manufacture fighter jets, precision-guided rocket systems and other defence applications.
The company stated that the project will produce approximately 4,000 metric tonnes of rare earth oxides per year, including 1,700 tons high-value magnet rare Earths NdPr, DyTb and DyTb.
Andrew Murphy, Harena's Executive Chair, told? Harena Executive?Chair Andrew Murphy told?
The mines ministry of Madagascar did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Harena plans to start production in Ampasindava around mid-2028 and is currently evaluating refining options both in the U.S. and Europe. Murphy named MP Materials, USA Rare Earths and Solvay as potential partners.
Murphy stated that while the DFC's commitment is modest, it may?open up the door for larger U.S. funding as the roughly $150 million project progresses towards construction.
DFC officials said that they could provide additional funding for the project if it meets certain criteria, such as due diligence and approvals. However, they declined to discuss possible financing.
(source: Reuters)