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LME WEEK - US copper imports likely to fall short of 2025 record, analysts claim

Analysts and traders say that the volume of refined copper imported into the United States this year is unlikely to exceed the record shipment in 2025 due to the already swollen stockpiles, as well as the spike in logistics fees, resulting from the Iran War.

Copper prices on COMEX have again risen above the global benchmark of the London Metal Exchange, prompting renewed flows to the U.S. while the market awaits news if U.S. president Donald Trump will impose import tariffs.

Last year, the U.S. bought massive amounts of copper on the COMEX stock market in anticipation of tariffs. The increase from 100,000 to 461,833 tons is a fivefold rise. The U.S. finally exempted refined copper from tariffs, but the matter is still under review.

Guy Wolf, global director of market analysis at broker Marex said on the sidelines LME Asia Week, in Hong Kong, that "the market has to always price in?some probability of tariff"

He said: "I don't believe you can see the material flowing into the U.S. at the same rate as in 2025." This time, it will be more difficult for people to take advantage of what appears to be a massive, risk-free opportunity.

Trade Data Monitor reports that U.S. imported refined copper in the first three months of this year was over 500,000 tons. This is on pace to surpass last year's 1.64 million ton record, but some analysts are skeptical about the rate.

The current stock levels make it unlikely that the same volume will go to the U.S. this year as last. Howard Lau, Director of Asia Materials Research at HSBC said that there are currently around 1 million tons, referring both to the exchange and non-exchange inventory.

COMEX's copper stock is currently 561,066 tonnes, which is more than half its storage capacity of 1,05 million tons.

The conflict in the Middle East has caused logistics costs to rise, which is pushing up the premium needed to bring copper to the U.S.

The war risk premium increased by 40-60 times in two weeks following the war, according to Sabrina Qian of IFCHOR?GALBRAITHS Singapore.

Some still see the first-quarter figures as a sign of another large year of U.S. Copper inflows.

Nicholas Snowdon is the head of metals research and mining at Mercuria, a long-time copper bull.

Based on a U.S. Geological Survey estimate of 900,000 tonnes for 2024, this would mean that U.S. Copper imports in 2018 will be more than 2,000,000 tons.

Snowdon stated that the U.S. had 'already imported almost 800,000 tonnes in the first four months of 2026.

This pull is due to the demand for copper in China, which is the top consumer of the metal. He said that the market will be in a deficit if prices continue to fall. (Reporting from Amy Lv and Tom Daly, in Hong Kong with additional reporting from Dylan Duan in Hong Kong. Editing by Tom Hogue.)

(source: Reuters)